Little Leading Diagonal in Oil Prices on the 15mn Time Frame?Little Leading Diagonal in Oil Prices on the 15mn Time Frame?
USO
Oil Could Bottom Any Time Now.. 9-Year Old Algo Target At $5.21 The WTI can pump at any moment, to be honest. We are at incredibly low prices! Lower algo target is set at $5.21. Bullish divergences all over the place... What will be the impact on indices if we bottom?
USO - Long Hold. Amazing what is happening with OIL. especially USO. I know there is a lot of fear in the market...but imagine you were sitting on some cash (cause you listened to Matt about financial markets being overbought and you protected yourself).
Imagine you bought USO at this level...imagine in 10-15-20 years what that position could look like?
Sure we could all go electric, not happening anytime soon. Plus everything is made of plastics (reality).
Sure we could run out of oil...wouldn't that drive prices up?
Sure we could go lower, more upside than downside from my analysis.
I see this as an amazing place to buy this equity, I will ride whatever drawdown comes and be holding for 10+ years.
Good luck out there...these are crazy times. but acutely crazy and we shall all be on our feet again soon(ish) I hope!
-Matthew Armstrong - CFTe
$USO Could be a Trap for Bargain HuntersUSO is at risk of liquidation. Retail investors have poured in, thinking it's a bargain way to buy cheap oil right now. But it holds too much exposure to WTI futures contracts that may turn negative, which would destroy the ETF.
I Think USO Will Go Down, So Naturally I'm Buying USO CallsWho really needs OIL anymore? We have the sweat and tears of the new investors trying to figure out this market, right? Wrong!
Donald J Trump, chicken nugget of the United States of America, is running out of baby batter. A glowing tan is important for president, if not, how can be young and nimble? Answer: CANT.
Ok let's predent do some technical analysis: Fibonacci.
Now that we did that let's get serious. Dodo will buy oil from oil place while it's still inside the comfortable cradles of the oil mine, ok? We do that to save the workers cuz if you buy that oil and say, hey bro, ima buy such cheap oils from you rn but you dont have to mined it yet, then you dont has to put that oil in a tanker or nothing just leave it there bro and we will take it in a few years when it's, idk, maybe 50 bux or something (lol jk but really tho).
You ask, coinholio, my gentle tard, does this mean that economy will be save? Answer: no. Oil companies will get boughten the oil because jaret kushner will read this post and think its good idea (so meta, but that's ok, he won't read the whole thing he's kinda got ADHD and at this point he is already jacking it on henta hevaen). Basically they will boughted all this oil and then oil company will be all, well, they boughted all this oil, but do we really wanna pay these guys all these moni for nothing when they aren't doing no work? So they make fired and pass cost up to tax payeds and people say "oh well they did their best".
OK so but what about contigo and all that stuff. There's no time for coffee right now. The USO will just change the rules and say hey you know what, we don't like the rules so lets do something else. See, no more contigo issues. Drink tea and marmalade.
Basically I applied to MAC DONALDS as a second job now because I boughten over ONE THOUSAND dollar of these calls options. I don't really think that oil will go to that high, to be TBH with you, but the important part is that some one just a bit smarter than me will think it will, and then we can sell these option to thems people (again, im glad jaret doesn't read too much).
Thank you for watching my video, please like and subscribe. Online peoples approval very important stuff, especially in these trying times. Remember that wen ppls say to do something, do the opposite. Except for wen I do it, then do it, because I want you to do the opposite it is REVERSE PSYCHOLOGY. The only way to win is to do double reverse psychologyies. Remember I already boughted these so in order to get moni you need to buy now!
USO $5 5/15 100
Algo Target Reached $12.91. 9-Year Old Algo Target is at $5.21!Algos targeting $5.21 in oil prices (OANDA CFD here). First green algo target reached at $12.91. Bullish if the pitchfork median lines remain untouched!
Update of crude oil: It did turn up. Current target.This is a follow up from my March 27 posting suggesting a possible bottom in oil. See link below. From the 2 hr chart you can see the last downtrend line has been broken and price has gone above the the previous short turn high which supports the bottom may now be in. Short term I think a rise to the 35-40 range in likely. Drop below the short term up channel is negative.
Process your way. Make decisions on your own analysis.
Best to ya. Feedback welcome.
Short term update on Crude oilHere is how it looks to me. Have had a .62 correction. Wave form seems to fit to me .
Process your way.
Algos are targeting $6.8 and $5.3 in the WTI. Will we get there?Our green box has been hit. Algos targeting $6.8 and $5.3.
USO is crashing again. Bottom around 1.92 or 0.95?As suggested some time ago, an extended 5th could occur in USO... and it's happening. We may bottom around $1.92 or $0.95. Currently at $2.6 in pre market. This is possibly one of the most dangerous falling knife ever :knife:
OIL PRICE BEHAVIOR EXPLAINED
Yesterdays epic negative oil prices were due to the fact the CL1! Futures expiration was 21.04.2020, therefore all unsettled contracts had to undergo a physical delivery in the Oklahoma Terminal. The problem however is that the storage is 70% full already and any level above 80% is considered dangerous from the technical point of view.
There is nothing unnatural in the current situation, although the depth of the fall is indeed unprecedented. The spot and the nearest futures prices are suppressed due to massive oversupply. If you take a look at the November 2020 prices, a healthy 32 USD per barrel is printed.
What is of particular interest is that while WTI spot is negative, Brent and Urals oil benchmarks are trading at the reasonable levels, having lost just about 6%. The differential shows us that the oil market is fragmented and is not entirely global. There are hundreds of types and brands of crude oil of varying chemical composition and different quality, and the refineries are customized to deal with a particular type of oil.
While the Saudis are offering 3 month payment free oil shipments to Europe, there is a technical and infrastructural constraints on the volumes of oil that Europe can take from the unusual source.
The fed had confirmed that they will be buying junk grade corporate bonds, but they are targeting to help those who are solvent but illiquid. To quote the fed official: the fed wants the price discovery process to continue.
Given the current oil price combined with the levels of indebtedness of the shell oil producers, we will see bankruptcies as their objective long term insolvency won’t let the fed take on the risk and save them.
On a practical note: USO etf, which is a holder of near term oil futures, seems to be a decent option to go long on oil as there is only one way for oil to move now.
Shell oil producers are too risky at these price levels. Yet, as the time goes and investors flee from the default risks, and the near default stocks start trading for pennies, one might start picking those stocks.
Buy 20 of them. 15 go bankrupt. 5 left survive narrowly and get a x500 upside. One good trade.
What do you think guys? Are you among those who burned themselves badly trying to catch the falling knife of the spot oil today? Or were you the lucky shorter who will be buying a Bentley tomorrow?
Tell me in the comments.
WTICOUSD - Oil weekly. Is oil ready to pivot?4/17/2020 OIL weekly chart
All the talking heads are saying how the C-19 virus destroyed the Oil and etc.
The truth is the oil peaked in 2008 and it is looking to be completing a 5 wave structures down.
Currently the oil is in 19 handle
I can see Oil may go down to the 17 handle
I can also say see that Oil met the minimum requirement to begin moving up from this area.
EVERYONE was bullish when oil was $130-$140
EVERYONE is bearish now when WTI is $19.xx and USO is at $4
Incoming Reversal! Technical Analysis of USO - United States OilFirst, we look at the 1 week chart and establish there's an overall bearish trend. This is indicated by the downwards purple trend lines. Then we zoom in to the daily chart for more details and establish a level of support, indicated by the horizontal purple line. We also determine the short-term bearish signs and determine there's a loss of momentum. This new bearish trend support/resistance are indicated by the green lines.
What we'll be looking for on Monday is to break out above the long-term bearish purple line. Look to place a trade around end-of-day Monday based on current position above or below that line.
For me, the loss of momentum and the recent activity with oil in the news (Russia/Saudi deal) I'm going to lean towards a bearish trade. AMEX:USO
BUY WHEN other are dumb lol thanks for paniclol speculator thinks oil will go to zero, seems like stupidity is contagious
bear trap elow support
buy and forget it
Bullish on OilCrude just hit $13. either we bounce here or oil is dead forever.
Long term, i think its very unlikely for oil to stay this low for long.
Just look at these companies break-even cost for oil.
www.reuters.com
to summarize -Russia break-even cost $25-$30 per barrel
I would imagine that applies to most of the middle east countries.
In addition to that, most oil reserves around the world will be filled to the max by end of April so once it bursts, they will have to pay people to buy oil lol.
we know that's not happening.
Why is oil price so low then?
because in the past few years, american oil company started to dominate the world market, we were producing tons and tons of oil and selling it, thus driving oil price down. the opec no longer had a monopoly and there is no better opportunity for them to kill these american oil company than now.( i know it's horrible for us )
So with the demand driven down 75% due to corona virus and they increased their supply by 400% ( that's a huge surplus)
they instantly crushed the oil price and are forcing a lot of the us shale company to go out of business because their balance sheet was already weak. a lot of them are in the process of pending doom so they are kind of putting a clearance sale on all their oil at like $8 a barrel.
Btw, 1 barrel is 42 gallons. if oil is $13 a barrel, that's $13/42g= .31cent per gallon.
so?
I would go long at $13, and continue to add more every $2 drop. on longer dates.
or do uso.
What A Carnage in Oil. $17 Did Not Hold, $10 Next?1:1 extension and 0.887 retracement hit. We have reached the ML of the PF which means we may fluctuate around it for some time.
Oil Prices Are Crashing. Bloodbath Coming If Indices Follow?If the indices collapse too, beware of the extended 5th!
THE WEEK AHEAD: SNAP, NFLX, IBM EARNINGS; /ZC, /CLEARNINGS:
IBM (63/54) announces Monday after market close.
SNAP (92/102) announces Tuesday after market close.
NFLX (66/70) announces Tuesday after market close.
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS ORDERED BY IMPLIED VOLATILITY RANK/PERCENTILE SCREENED FOR RANK >50/IMPLIED >35%:
XLU (77/47)
GDXJ (77/84)
GDX (67/65)
SLV (66/45)
TQQQ (63/111)
USO (62/112)
XLE (59/70)
EWW (58/54)
EWZ (53/69)
XOP (59/91)
BROAD MARKET EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS ORDERED BY IMPLIED VOLATILITY RANK/PERCENTILE:
IWM (72/54)
QQQ (47/38)
SPY (45/28)
EFA (44/31)
EEM (41/36)
FUTURES ORDERED BY IMPLIED VOLATILITY RANK/PERCENTILE:
/ES (44/40)
/NQ (47/39)
/YM (51/13)
/RTY 72/53
/CL (62/130)
/NG (94/71)
/GC (67/27)
/SI (66/43)
/ZC (57/28)
/ZS (33/17)
/ZW (27/31)
Notes: Pictured here is a /ZC August 21st 310/330 long call vertical, currently trading at 11.25 with a break even at 321.25 versus 321 spot. Ideally, you'd want to put this on with at least make one/risk one metrics, which would occur if the spread priced out at 10.00 even or below. /ZC is tantalizingly close to those August 2016 lows at 310 '06 ... .
Another future worth mentioning here: /CL. As I write this post, the May contract is currently trading at multi-year lows at 15.09, with the June contract trading at 23.66. May drops off this week with the question being how low the June contract will go. I continue to look to sell puts on weakness in the active contract at or below $20.
VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES:
VIX finished the week at 38.15 with the /VX term structure in backwardation.
CRUDE OIL: OVERSOLD, BUY SHORT TERMWAY OVERSOLD and oil companies cannot function at this level. There will likely be another cut coming soon.
Stay within the lines.
*I trade based on 1) Opportunity, 2) Fundamentals, 3) Chart Trends, and 4) Pure Luck. Follow me and Let's Win Some Money Together.
