Opening (IRA): USO Oct 18th 64 Covered Call... for a 62.48 debit.
Comments: Adding a smidge to my position here at better break evens than what I currently have on. Selling the -75 delta (ish) against long stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, with the built in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 62.48
Max Profit: 1.52
ROC at Max: 2.43%
50% Max: .76
ROC at 50% Max: 1.21%
USO
Is oil signalling a recession? Oil has really started to free fall.
The death cross on the daily chart has occurred. this is where the 50 MA intersects with the 200 MA in a downtrend.
This often implies more downside to the medium and long term but is often a great short term long signal.
Usually when you get this signal the market makers bounce the stock or commodity a bit before taking it lower.
We are hitting a massive multi year trend line going back to 2022 that should act as some support.
XLE looks ready for 1 more down leg before a swing tradable low is in.
Energy does have a tendency to fall precipitously so understanding oil can keep falling if investors fear the worst or a recession.
Crude Oil Slips: Third Consecutive Week **"Crude Oil Slips: Third Consecutive Week Of Losses Amid Mounting Bearish Pressure"** On Friday, August 30th, front-month crude futures sharply dropped before paring losses. OPEC+ is reportedly leaning toward an output increase in October. Our algorithm issued a daily chart sell alert on July 22, 2024, followed by a weekly chart sell alert on August 12. A break below the $69.28 price level on a weekly basis could potentially trigger a more significant decline, driving crude prices down to $60 or lower by early next year.
Finally time for bullish oil? $USO to $120 then $300+People have been calling for the oil bull market to begin for the past two years and the trade largely hasn't worked as we've gone sideways to down. However, based on the chart, it looks like we're finally ready for a run.
This would also line up with my bearish equity thesis.
Oil looks to have broken out of an inverse head and shoulders pattern and althought it's a diagonal pattern which are less reliable, the indicators that I have seem to support the narrative.
I think there's a possibility that we could see a 4x move over the next year or so.
Let's see how it plays out.
Falling towards pullback support, could price bounce from here?WTI oil is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection and could potentially bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 80.858
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level which lines up9 with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection.
Stop loss: 79.374
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 82.947
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Shipping prices increasing, Oil going lower, cancel each other?By the graph included, we can see that Asian container freight rate prices are skyrocketing. This is due to disruption & stock.
This is good sign for the overall economy, means not in recession.
With news that Trump is being called the next prez will #oil trend lower?
Maybe one can offset the other?
LSE:INDU SP:SPX NASDAQ:NDX AMEX:USO
USO Oil ShortUSO on the 60 minute chart is currently in a broadening wedge and reflecting down off a
reversal at the upper resistance trend line. The MACD lines have crossed over the histogram
and are trending down showing moving average convergence. Price is between the mean and
first upper band lines and moving down toward the former. Current factors at play include
an OPEC+ meeting, Russia working around sanctions, increased demand of the summer driving
season, federal rate action projections as well as those in Europe and the ongoing conflicts in
the Middle East. I will short USO here targeting 74 at the bottom of the wedge pattern.
Could price reverse from here?USO/USD is rising towards a resistance level which is an overlap resistance that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and could potentially reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 78.92
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level which lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 80.80
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 76.59
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level which is slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Opening (IRA): USO July 19th 67 Monied Covered Call... for a 65.60 debit.
Comments: Selling the -75 call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense and to take advantage of slightly elevated IV on the call side relative to the put. Would like 30-day IV to be higher here, but can't have everything (it's at 31.2%).
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 65.60
Max Profit: 1.40 ($140)
ROC at Max: 2.13%/16.90% annualized
ROC at 50% Max: 1.07%/8.45% annualized
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max ... .
USO / UCO a play on barrel oil shock LONGUCO is shown here as a one month trend - It is sitting on the rising support tendline about
2% below the recent high. Oil prices contribute to inflation. Anyone in the USA is aware of
gasoline prices at the pump. Geopolitics plays into price. At present, US Navy warships are
consuming refined oil and heading to the Middle East. Iran and Russia are sanctioned and must
sell oil on the global market ( primarily India and China ) at artificially low prices. If Iran
retaliates against Isreal, its oil infrastructure will be bombed back into the Stone Age in less
than a day or two by the US. Global oil prices will spike nearly instantly from spot oil to
futures. US Domestic producers will benefit ; the insane net cash flow to them will
dramatically increase quickly. Russia will sell more oil to make up for Iran being taken off
supply but will not capitalize so much given the sanctions. The price of oil will likely go
north of $100 USD / barrel and potentially higher. Iran could go nuclear and any residual
oil infrastructure would be turned into a quagmire of scrap metal in another day of work for
the US Navy bombers and the fighter jets that escort them into strategic missions.
Defense contractor stocks will spike as well. This could be a black swan event.
My trading dictates that I add to my positions and average in until price goes against my idea.
I am increasing my positions in gold and silver along with ETFs inversing the indices banks
and financial stocks until the dust is settled. This includes any plays on VIX. I will also look
at individual domestic oil stocks as well as junior precious metal miners.