THE WEEK AHEAD: USO/XLE/XOP, EWW, XLUEXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS ORDERED BY IMPLIED VOLATILITY RANK:
USO 67/167
EWW 57/73
XLE 57/87
XLU 57/53
GLD 51/32
EWZ 50/85
XOP 49/105
SMH 47/58
GDXJ 44/86
XLF 41/53
FXI 32/39
GDX 31/66
TLT 30/25
BROAD MARKET EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS ORDERED BY IMPLIED VOLATILITY RANK:
IWM 59/60
EEM 46/49
SPY 47/58
QQQ 46/44
EFA 39/45
FUTURES ORDERED BY IMPLIED VOLATILITY RANK:
/NG 72/67
/CL 67/157
/GC 51/31
/ZS 51/19
/ES 47/56
/SI 41/51
/ZW 40/32
/ZC 29/27
VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES
VIX finished the week at 46.80 with the entire /VX term structure in backwardation.
MUSINGS:
Shown here is an EWW short put in the May cycle paying 1.00. Camped out at the 23 delta strike, it has a break even of 22.00 and has a 4.54% return on capital in a cash secured environment. Alternatively, the May 15th 22/29 short strangle is paying 1.54 at the mid.
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Long /CL at $20/barrel via out-the-money short puts or short put verticals may turn out to be the "trade of the year" after (in my case) being taken to the wood shed playing it non-directionally/rangebound between 52 and 63. Only time will tell; it's come up substantially off its lows already with it remaining to be seen whether OPEC+ can get its shit together and quit with the self-harm.
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In the IRA, it looks to be touch and go for acquiring stuff on my shopping list. (See Posts, below). I've stuck my lines in the water; the best I can hope for is to get some bites at April opex. If I don't get assigned, I'll re-up with a rung to replace any expiring worthless if the market stays down here. Simultaneously, I'm looking to exit my TLT position, which has a cost basis of below $110/share, thinking that the capital can be better deployed elsewhere, but don't want to do that if I don't pick any other dividend-generating underlyings to replace it. Looked at from that perspective, my "personal" yield on the TLT position in light of my particular cost basis is 2.98/$110 or about 2.71%, which isn't horrible.
