XOP: will buy XOP around tomorrow noon Sep/10 2019Maybe before EIA report, there will be a good enty
USO
cl, oil, day trading for Aug 21stOil has moved up into a very balanced distribution and is now looking to resolve one way or the other. This 45 tick range will most likely not contain oil prices today and will provide a good breaking trade opportunity. will watch for a impulsive move and trade the follow up to that break with trail stop tightening near marked targets.
Crude Oil Monthly In Descending WedgeWTI linear scale monthly study highlighting descending wedge and ascending channel.
Oil forming a descending triangleOil is still in no man's land, seems to be forming a descending triangle, I see three possible scenarios. At this point oil is best day traded as there seems to be indecision on where this market is headed.
Messy Oil Messy Chart! WHats in the cardsI posted recently the neck was broken on oil. The bears made out big! Now Bulls it looks like it is your turn. Volatility. I see $57-$58 for the bull run let's see! See my posts below to see the current Geometrical Frequency of Oil.
-Coach Reeves
Long term look. Strong support at 46want few more days like to let all fat burn. but then big up days.
Oil: Close below 51 might trigger a big sell offOil chart doesnt look good for bulls at all, if it closes below 51 (which seems to be the "demand" line) we might see a massive sell off to last year's lows. However, seasonally oil rallies in August 70% of the time (long August 7th to 27th)
It's in "no mans land here" basically with the conflicting signals , probably safer to just daytrade it until we get a clearer picture.
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Trumps Tweets? NAH! Charts. Volatility in the works!Here you can see how the seesaw may unfold. Geometry! Cheers
-Coach Reeves
bearish outlook for crudeWith the yearly high of 66.6 still holding, crude appears to be heading downward. Continuation pattern would suggest 45$ by the end of August.
Fundamental QuagmireIt appears the underlying fundamentals have hit equilibrium. The supply/demand imbalance continues to get worse as more countries post econ data supporting slowing trade. My favorite number so far this week is from Korea. The 11th largest economy in the world reported a 10% decline in exports from the previous year. Here in the US we are expecting inventories to pick up (possibly posting net gains for the first time in weeks) as production gets back to peak capacity after tropical storm Barry disruptions last week. Despite the increasingly bad news for crude bulls, geo-political tensions continue to escalate in the gulf as Iran seized a UK affiliated tanker and its crew. The UK is said to be looking at sanctions against Iran but I doubt sanctions would be enough to see prices rise. If we get another tank seizure or drone incident that could change. I'm still bearish long term and net bearish in the short term but I think this could be a "choppy" week for Oil as the bull and bears fundamental narratives vie for control of price action. Longs should be wary of bearish API and EIA numbers this week and Shorts will want to stay up to date on developments in the gulf.
Agree? Disagree? Let me know what you are thinking!
Longs Beware!Prices have gone up since June on geo political tensions between Iran and US, OPEC curbing production, and Just this week worries about tropical storm barry (possibly hurricane barry) making landfall in Louisiana. To some it looks as if we hit the bottom and are going to make a new high for the year. Before you go long, let me offer some contrarian points to give you some alternative context.
1.) Global slowdown of growth and trade: Less capital production and trade mean less oil consumption. Despite OPEC's commitment to curb production it might not be very effective if we continue to see trade dominate headlines in negative ways.
2.) Geo-Politics: Yes its true we've seen some price surges on tensions in the Straight of Hormuz with Iran. However the bigger picture seems to be in the opposite direction. If you look at when Trump reinstated sanctions on Iranian oil exports back in Nov 4, 2018 the price has dropped and stayed below $75. Since Trump scuttled the Iranian nuclear deal, suppressing prices on Iran's top export (Oil) has been a key priority. Trump has been encouraging oil production in the US (now the worlds leading oil producer) to appease voters for re-election and in hopes it will force Iran to renegotiate a deal under his terms. Look for a continuation of this sympathetic ear to drilling, pipeline access, and campaign promises to keep prices lower to "ensure national security via energy independence". If you still prefer goin long, Iranian escalations provide excellent long scalps. As long as Trump doesn't start a war with Iran, don't expect a real reversal on geo-political headlines.
3.)Hurricane whiff: There's no doubt tropical storm Barry (possibly hurricane) will cause damage to Louisiana. However, most of the offshore rigs and port refineries have been built to withstand hurricanes lower than category 3 without much issue. Flooding may delay the refineries from getting back online or regaining full capacity, but they won't cause long lasting infrastructure damage. This might still sound bad but of the 5 million barrels that are exported in the gulf only about 700,000 of them come from Louisiana. (majority is from Texas) In spite of the bad weather the majority of refineries in Louisiana are expected to continue operations at some capacity over the coming days. I will say its only the first hurricane/storm of the season and its kicking off early. With climate change increasing the intensity and frequency of extreme weather, the possibility of a big storm wreaking real havoc on the oil market will hold merit till November. Keep your eyes peeled on these weather updates for long scalp opportunities.
Agree? Disagree? Let me know what you are thinking! Wish everybody a safe and happy weekend.
WTI cfd CRUDE USO CL SHORT SETUPDaily chart, short term momentum bounce trade.
Entry Blue: 59.45 / 59.95 area
Stop Red: 60.55 (hard stop/ above recent resistance)
Target: 58.05
Long term idea - possible ABCD in oil? This is one ballsy idea, however it's definitely one of the options and would nicely backtest broken trendline. Lets see how this unfolds, but this is something I will definitely keep back in my mind with all that bearish bias around.
