$USO $WTICOUSD Oil Under PressureAs the global economy continues to slow, and as global macro headline risks become more prevalent, oil has been the one asset that has felt the brunt of these developments.
After suffering its worst week on record, loosing over 6%, oil is experiencing quite a bit of bearish activity. On technical level, oil is trading below both its 10-Day and 50-Day EMAs for the first time this year, coupled with the fact that both EMAs are showing a "Death Cross" scenario on the daily chart. Furthermore, oil's MACD is below it Signal, indicating that the recent bearish activity has some legs to stand on.
We believe that this bearish activity will continue in the short-term, and see WTI's next stop at around $54.80 in the next few weeks time.
USO
WHY SO MANY SHORTS I would love to ramble about geopolitics, but that aside, the real deal I see is bear overreacting party here.
Elliott wave approach:
ABC corrective wave is completed. It's time for a bull run.
Trend line approach:
3 times tested channels is having a fourth try.
Others:
Daily Exponential Moving Average +SMA 50/100/200 are showing 4 supports and 2 resistances.
USO: Well supported on the long term.The United States Oil Fund has most likely completed its technical pull back on the 1W scale and has resumed the bullish bias (RSI = 57.828, MACD = 0.080, Highs/Lows = 0.2614). Being well supported by all the underlying trend lines, this is probably an early buy signal towards the 16.25 1W Resistance. We are long on USO with TP = 15.00.
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Update CRUDE OIL: 7.238M barrel build - CAUTION... to finish after I was rudely cut off, options returns are a bell curve based on duration, you never want to hold them until expiry unless you are planning on taking delivery!
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Play the Rebound on Oil and GasolineStory : For a number of highly-discussed ab debated reasons, that do not need to be presented here, petrochemicals have seen a substantial devaluation over the course of the last 2 months. While the view from a macro-perspective remains bearish, a rebound from the recent sharp downturn would not a surprise.
Note : The trades presented offer a 1 to 1.75-2.0 risk/reward and are positions taken in my portfolio.
Update CHK: Ascending triangle ready to breakout!Section 232 Uranium tariffs this month is likely to be a driver on the natural gas price ultimately pushing Chesapeake higher!
Update USOIL: $61.50 first, then $52Commodities are typically the last asset to peak during a cycle. We typically interest rates peak first, a couple of months later that followed by equities and a couple of months after equities we see commodities peak. Commodities such as crude oil, are part of the contraction phase in the cycle, the higher the price rises it begins to acts as a tax on consumers and that begins the early recession phase. For that reason, I have marked this rally in crude as a wave A of a bigger corrective pattern.
Short Oil @ 59.60 - 60.00 area Fib 0.50 line. Oil has had a nice bounce from the Jan 2019 lows, and I believe it's time for a little pullback. This 59.60 - 60.00 area is an important pivot point, exactly sitting at the Fib 0.50 line, which will prove very hard to be broken. We consolidated in this region back in 2015 and fell hard. Remember that we are in a secular bear market, and this up movement from the Jan lows could be seen as a bear flag. First price target is 55.5, and then a second, a little aggressive price target would be 50.5. Given that the general equity market fundamentals point to a pull-back, shorting oil will be high probabilty trade. Enjoy the profits!!!