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USO

THE WEEK AHEAD: GLD, GDXJ, GDX, SLV, USOEARNINGS No options highly liquid underlyings announcing earnings this week. BROAD MARKET EEM (15/18) QQQ (19/19) IWM (19/18) SPY (19/15) EFA (10/12) One word ... . Well, maybe two: "Weak sauce," with ranks in the low quarter of their 52-week ranges and background implied at sub-20 across the board. SECTOR EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS Top 5 By Rank: GLD (92/16), GDXJ (71/33), SLV (64/21), GDX (48/28), USO (47/43) TBT (52/24). Pictured here is a GLD Synthetic Reverse Jade Lizard, explained in the post, below. For those of a more nondirectional bent, the Aug 16th 127/140 short strangle is paying 1.72 with a 70% probability of profit, although I'd recheck that setup at New York open for delta balance ... . GDXJ: August 16th 34 short straddle, 3.45 credit with >expected move break evens, delta/theta -11.03/3.02. GDX: August 16th 25 short straddle, 2.12 credit with >expected move break evens, but a little on the weak side in terms of credit collection. Delta/theta: -10.52/1.84. SLV/USO: August has yet to populate ... . In petro, my go-to is generally XOP (34/35), but the August expiry has yet to populate. Given the size of the underlying, I would probably continue to short straddle it here, assuming that it's still paying greater than 10% of the price of the underlying (i.e., >2.70 or so in credit for the short straddle nearest at-the-money).
AMEX:GLD
by NaughtyPines
USO, not buying the bear marketOver the past month especially, crude has fallen into a bear market. Most of this bearish reasoning is coming from the U.S. EIA reports which is showing a large amount of undocumented crude which has resulted in a very swollen crude storage inventory, mostly all in PADD 3 (Gulf Coast.) There is strong reasoning to believe that this undocumented crude is actually plant condensate, which is not exactly an equivalent of crude oil yet being counted as such by weekly data. If we deduct this probable phony glut of non-crude oil which is more likely some type of condensate, would we still be in a bear market? Possibly, a little bit at least, but that would have much to do with lower refinery run rates and Trump's trade wars. Venezuelan imports to U.S. are down to zero. Canadian imports can only ramp up nominally by railroad. Saudi Arabia exports to U.S. have been extremely low, in the 400,000 barrels per day region and there isn't much alternative to recovering those lost barrels from elsewhere as heavier barrels have become a scarcity. It is very possible that at the end of the month, EIA 914 monthly data corrects U.S. weekly data production numbers with a downward revision. Texas' Permian basin rig count has fallen significantly, while the North American rig count overall is down big time; completions in the Permian have also not taken off, they have grown, which tells us that it seems unlikely the U.S. could have shot up to over 13,000,000 barrels per day in production. It is more likely in my opinion that we see a decline or flatlining in U.S. production as it appears many U.S. producers are focused on (attempting at least) to generate free cash flow to appease everly demanding shareholders. I think the overall market will be taken by surprise when it comes to realize that condensate has been getting counted as crude and that U.S. production isn't going to be growing as many analysts forecasts; all this is happening at the same time, historically reliable suppliers like Venezuela completely fall into an abyss and OPEC appears as disciplined as ever, while Canadian pipelines are delayed which reduces egress potential to the market in the coming couple years.
AMEX:USOLong
by chriskanaan
OIL day trades June 3rdToday looks like a 54 to 56 trading range could be the play so will look to trade back and forth if we remain in this consolidation. A break below will have me hold shorts from above if the signals are bearish, and a break above 56 I will hold the long from below if the signals are bullish. So summary is 54 to 56 I will short the top of this range and long the bottom but as the trade moves towards the opposite range boundary will see if I see enough strength to carry me past this range and if not will take off the profit. alternatively if trading more than 1 lots will reduce size and boundaries and hold a single runner for possible break out
FX:USOIL
by alleytrader
$USO $WTICOUSD Oil Under PressureAs the global economy continues to slow, and as global macro headline risks become more prevalent, oil has been the one asset that has felt the brunt of these developments. After suffering its worst week on record, loosing over 6%, oil is experiencing quite a bit of bearish activity. On technical level, oil is trading below both its 10-Day and 50-Day EMAs for the first time this year, coupled with the fact that both EMAs are showing a "Death Cross" scenario on the daily chart. Furthermore, oil's MACD is below it Signal, indicating that the recent bearish activity has some legs to stand on. We believe that this bearish activity will continue in the short-term, and see WTI's next stop at around $54.80 in the next few weeks time.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by EconomicsGlobal
USO: Well supported on the long term.The United States Oil Fund has most likely completed its technical pull back on the 1W scale and has resumed the bullish bias (RSI = 57.828, MACD = 0.080, Highs/Lows = 0.2614). Being well supported by all the underlying trend lines, this is probably an early buy signal towards the 16.25 1W Resistance. We are long on USO with TP = 15.00. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
AMEX:USOLong
by InvestingScope