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USO

Subdued Volatility Boosts Crude, But Will It Last? #oil #oott Oil has also seen a dramatic decline in volatility with the OVX down 35 percent over the last month versus an eight percent decline in the VIX. But, prices are beginning to stagnate across cyclical drivers as the macro data out of China and Europe continue to decelerate. In October: "There is currently a 19.8% premium versus the 20-year seasonality , and there's over a 24 percent gap from where crude currently stands and the 5- and 10-year seasonality , respectively. Looking at the futures market, large speculators positioning (on a 5-year percentile) has been sloping lower as price diverges. However, now growth is expected to slow along with inflation which is a bad mix. I have been pointing out since early summer, my DRIP-model (disinflation/reflation/inflation proxy in pink) has been pointing to lower-lows in U.S. inflation . In turn, consumer prices fell from a five-year high of 2.9% to 2.3% Given how market conditions are building, and the recent action in crude, the U.S. could be facing inflation under 2% and that has serious implications when concerning Fed policy." The 20-year seasonality for WTI is negative from September to January with October and November being to steepest at -1 and -1.2 percent, respectively. January's seasonality performance is -.7 percent with current prices trading at a 13.1 percent premium to the 5-year average. Furthermore, today's EIA inventories report saw a massive build of 7.97 m/bl build v. 42,000 drawdown expectation and 2.68 m/bl draw in the following week. This was the largest build since November 15.
NYMEX:CL1!
by TheMacroStrategist
THE WEEK AHEAD: IBM, SBUX, USO, OIH, XOP(Pulling hair out). Ugh. A tough market temporarily for premium sellers. With VIX caving in dramatically off of its late December greater-than-35 highs, premium selling is the old gray mare that (temporarily) just ain't what it used to be. That being said, there are a couple of potential earnings plays to be had next week: IBM (68/31; Tuesday after market close) and SBUX (67/27; Thursday after market close). As you can see by the background implied volatility metrics, well, they ain't great, with IBM coming in at 31 and SBUX at 27. That being said, the February to March implied volatility contraction in IBM at the moment appears to be potentially from 32.7% to 26.6% (23% or so), and the SBUX from 25.7% to 23.5% (9.4%). From that standpoint, IBM appears to be the better volatility contraction play, since the market's pricing in a bigger contraction in the "Watson AI" company than in the omnipresent coffee purveyor. However, if you're going to play Watson, you're going to have to deal with goofy five-wides in the monthlies which, in itself, makes the play unappealing. Using the weeklies for a more surgical approach gets you fairly wide markets. Again, unappealing. (Scratches IBM off his list). SBUX suffers from the same problem, but with two-and-a-half wides. I remember playing SBUX before, but don't recall having this two-and-half wide nonsense in the monthlies. (Scratches SBUX off his list, too). On the exchange-traded fund front, some implied volatility juice appears to be concentrated in the petros -- USO, OIH, and XOP, where it pretty much is to a lesser or greater degree all the time. This is why I pretty much have some kind of trade on and running in XOP almost all the time. (See Post Below for my current XOP trade). This isn't necessarily the greatest place to start a relationship with this underlying (the implied volatility's at the low end of its 52-week range), but it's not paying horribly. Due to its relatively small size (31.60 at Friday close), I like to short straddle it -- the March 15th 32 short straddle is paying 2.92 at the mid with a 25% max take profit .73, which beats a poke in the eye with a sharp stick. In light of the broad market volatility crush, this is just one of those weeks where I don't anticipate putting much on unless something dramatically changes or I stumble across something directional to play. Until then, I'll just sit on a bunch of dry powder, and it deploy it when the time comes.
CBOE:VIX
by NaughtyPines
Oil running directly into resistance - a quick short idea!This is an update of my oil call from a few weeks ago where I suggested an inverse head and shoulders pattern might turn oil around. I believe that the current fundamental environment for oil is favorable so I would not like to fight the trend on any long term basis, but I do believe we can make a quick trade as oil runs into overhead trendline resistance on the chart above. The breakdown line from the bearish wedge will likely serve as resistance and I would not be surprised to see a pull back before oil continues higher. For a quick trade: Short oil between $51.60 and $52 Target: $49.75 Stop: $52.30 (or grossly above the trendline above)
FX:USOILShort
by TradeWithAdam
3
Crude oil long opportunity USOIL WTICOUSD CL2!We have a long opportunity in crude oil now. Crude oil has been sitting at the 61.8% retrace around 45.40ish for the last couple of days. A study of the longer term cycles shows that we have just completed a corrective red zone which actually started in March 2018, this cycle reached a low in December 2018 and will reach its next high in June 2019. We are still in a green (bullish) longer term zone which started January 2016 and should end around July 2019. These cycles are represented by the different types of vertical lines on the charts. I believe after August 2019, we will have the chance to short oil once again. If the 61.8% retrace does fail, then we may see a drop to $36-40, so be careful. Stop loss 44.90 Short term target 51 Longer term targets range from 62 and up. This is not recommendation to buy or to sell. (see information about cycles at the DJIA links below)
FX:USOILLong
by cedarfox
2
USO - Neutral Iron CondorWith natural gas in play, opportunity here allows participation similar. Price extension to the downside should slow down & the neutrality should give room for risk management if directional assumption is wrong. 8/9/13.5/14.5 JAN19 IRON CONDOR @ 0.21 CREDIT General plan: Roll if necessary & if possible to reduce risk. Target maximum profit, unless significant profit appears early. Comment or direct message for discussion, or on other interesting ideas! Follow for updates.
AMEX:USO
by themdtrader