USO
Ascending triangle in wave B on weekly chart nearing break outOPEC reached an agreement in the weekend, which should imply a price move upwards. Still though my current wave count suggest another move downwards to point E of the ascending triangle in the corrective wave B of one larger degree. Further we should get a bigger corrective wave C up to around 60, which is the end of wave 4 where most corrections tend to end.
Comments are welcome:)
USO Short Term LongWe saw a gap down on the open today. Regardless, buyers were still willing to come in and drive the price higher. I think this is a good opportunity to squeeze out the people who got short positions in early on what appears to be a top forming.
Be prepared for a gap up on the next open. In which case, I still wouldn't be afraid to open a position up. Looking to get long once the MACD crosses upwards. My stop will happen if the MACD crosses back downwards.
I would look for a target price of around 11.90 - 12.00. I would not be looking to hold this for more than a few days.
USO Medium Top Forming (Update 12/06/2016)Medium term traders shouldn't be shorting this yet. We still have positive momentum on the MACD. Also, I think it's a bad sign to see buyers willing to come in and drive the price higher after a gap down today. I think this still needs more time before heading down.
Transitioning to Risk-OFF Inflationary EnvironmentWe are about to transition from a risk-ON inflationary environment to a risk-OFF inflationary environment. That means bond yields might fall even though inflation is rising. The US has been a huge beneficiary of the risk-ON move and as a result should see outflows. That means lower equities, and a weaker dollar. Given a falling dollar, rising inflation, and risk-OFF environment, it doesn't seem unreasonable to think that GOLD could do quite well. US treasury bonds should outperform HYG and EMB. Oil is the wild card. Higher or even flat oil prices will be much higher than they were last year. The YoY inflation effects if OPEC can stabilize the oil market above $50 for the next two months would really feed into inflation. Higher inflation would hurt the US consumer and business margins applying further downward pressure on risk assets. But I am getting ahead of myself. The risk-ON rally is likely over, and it's time to expect a risk-OFF rising inflation environment.
USO Medium Term Top FormingLook for price to hang out in the price range box for several days before moving down. If you want to open a position towards the top of the price range box that is fine. Personally I'm going to wait for some sort of failed breakout towards the top of the price range before getting involved on the short side.
I'm giving two target prices to close your position on. Personally I would close out about 20-40% of my position at the first target price, then look to close out the rest at the second target price.
Good Luck
USO moves in relation to oil's $50 markI say, trends in silly moneymaking funds like USO and UCO, UWTI, etc are a great way to get rich, but as my great grandfather said and his great grandfather before him, "Always know where $50 is."
This chart is meant to show you exactly that in relation to USO.
Why does USO do this funny little contango dance around oil? Why, that's for another post my boy!
Current Algo Targets $USOIL $WTICurrent algo targets (red circles) Crude algo intra work sheet 645 AM Dec 2, 16 FX $USOIL $WTI FXCM #Oil $USO $UWTI $DWTI $CL_F #OOTT #Algo Considering the fact that a recent time / price cycle has expired algo targets are considered "soft" - waiting on confirmation. twitter.com www.compoundtrading.com
Caution shorts. Support held. Crude algo intra work sheet 334 AMCaution shorts. Support held. Crude algo intra work sheet 334 AM Dec 2, 16 FX $USOIL $WTI FXCM #Oil $USO $UWTI $DWTI $CL_F #OOTT #Algo. @EPICtheAlgo Diagonal trend line (blue), Fib line (green) and alpha algo line (red dotted) all held.
USO 1yr 2hr wedge range bound continuesLooks like we can take another stab at the range bound wedge run.
It is getting fairly tight - faked out once so far to the downside. Lots of volume on here and usoil futures, could be indicative of a bottom for the down trend, not going to look too deep into it since we know how many bs contracts are open.
Possibility of a rough head + shoulders which would confirm the range bound price action. Setting up a position short here earlier than shown ~10.93 then will add on as shown in the chart.
Long OIL into OPEC (Nov 30th) (Daily)If OIL trends the way i think it will, it'll be a coincidence in regards to the OPEC meet at the end of November. I just want to get that part cleared. :P
Short term speaking we're looking close to a bottom here at these levels. RSI divergence, 3 wave correction, and possible MACD crossover all signal buy right now. It will be interesting to see how Sunday night plays out, but I'll be looking at starting a 1/5 position at around the 42.60-80 area either Monday or Tuesday. If for some reason OIL gaps up or runs before open, I'll look at a close above 44.90 to enter. If OIL falls bellow (and closes bellow) 42, this chart is scrap. GL