USO
US OIL: Setting up for a rise??If the dollar keeps dropping I would think that would support a rise in oil as well as the precious metals. I see the form of the current drop from 1 to 2 as a corrective form and with the yellow target box now being hit. IFFF it holds above the recent low of about 44.16 I am looking for wave 3 up to start with likely a total of 5 waves up eventually to finish wave C. Personally will be taking a small long position soon with addition if recent support holds and short term down trend line broken. Process your own way. Hope this is helpful. Feedback appreciated.
USO 2hr 1yr closing wedgeRange bound inside a closing wedge until the inevitable breakout; play top to bottom and back up until the break out.
USO, US OILWith the trend line broken on USOIL, I have to expect further down side. Look for support at the 88.6% Fibo or more likely the retest of the last low, double bottom at $9.82. Indicators are oversold, BUT with the markets starting to sell off, its likely to find no support. I'll keep watching this one. Hopefully we get a good trade in a few days/ weeks.
Possible intermediate wave structure (Elliott wave theory)Updated opinion on the intermediate wave structure.
Feel free to leave comments, questions or suggestions!
Oil Ready to Propel HigherThe USO has likely completed the current corrective move and is ready to resume the bullish uptrend as part of an extended larger degree wave (3).
While there is the possibility that the correction extends to target the 61.8% retracement of wave 1 around 10.74, the minimum number of sub-waves to complete wave 2 has been reached. Moreover, extended wave 3s tend to be very bullish and wave 2s often only retrace to the 50% or even the 38.2% supports before resuming the uptrend.
The ensuing move would see the USO rise upwards of 13 in the next couple of months, making for a nice medium-term gain as well as higher gas prices at the pump.
XLEEnergy stocks have rallied enough here. Unable to break key Fib level with divergent momentum and an OPEC that will most likely not come to an agreement. Oh yeah, and junk bonds have rallied way too far as well. All in all, this sector has had everything in the world go right to get to this point and it's still flagging. We could see some sideways chop for a little bit, but over all, I think this puppy is headed much lower, below the January lows, but probably not till much later in 2017.
USO harmonic patternThese number are looking pretty close for two solid harmonic patterns
looking at a potential reversal in USO to about the 10.32 area.
UWTIIm buying into this rally in Oil. I see us in a half cycle consolidation right now with an upside target of $26. TSI is bullish with a zero line crossover.
BEARISH RATING - XLE (SPDR SELECT SECTOR - ENERGY)It's been about seven sessions since we first issued our real time rating on XLE as bearish, and we still believe there will be opportunity to the downside.
Volatility should continue as headline risk prompts uncertainty in the markets. Even if Saudi Arabia did happen to freeze or reduce production, it could not be enough in the long-term to offset production by Iran, Iraq, Russia and US shale producers. Furthermore, as we stated well over a year ago, the continuously slowdown in global economic growth will put a damper on crude prices.
Here is our note from 9.14.16:
Fundamentally, we do not see a meaningful resolution between Saudi Arabia and Russia curtailing their massive crude production, in part do to the unwillingness of Iran to freeze production until it reaches 4 m/bbl per day in production. With Russia - and most of OPEC - continuing course, any production cuts by domestic producers will be offset, and the supply glut will continue.
What is troubling, too, is the IEA reduced its demand forecasts by 100,000 barrels due to weaker demand from Asia. The report suggested that the supply-demand imbalance will last until the first half of 2017. If subscribers remember, we foretasted, in August 2015, that demand would continue to slow due to the global slowdown and that Chinese demand would wane. The inability for the consensus to forecast the sharp decline in global economic growth has left crude prices quite volatile.
We expect ongoing EIA inventory data to favor crude bears as the industry heads into the seasonally weak winter months.
Technically, a break below $68 will press ascending support. We like the technical indicator make-up that suggests that the next leg of selling is beginning as long as it is supported by key fundamental factors. As bulls continue to unwind longs, the z-score will turn bearish which we prefer on the short-side until -1.5 to -2. Bearish targets are set up on key support.
Rating Specifics :
Signal Trigger: $67.98
Signal Threshold: $70.02
Signal Opportunity: $60
R/R Ratio: 3.91
Duration: 1 to 3 months
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WTI Decending wedge and short term bearish prediction - CRUDEFeedback welcome! NYMEX:CL1! AMEX:USO FX_IDC:USDWTI AMEX:UWTI AMEX:DWTI
DWTI Cup and Handle formationCup and Handle formation with an oversold indication on the RSI (Relative Strength Index). ~195 dollar price target.
USOIL bearish divergence and rally exhaustionAfter this massive run in oil we are beginning to see bearish divergence on the 1 and 4 hr MACD and momentum as well as price action making a double top around 46.76. Can see a pullback to 44 or lower before resuming uptrend or more downwards momentum towards the high 30s if we break support.
