$CL Crude Oil FuturesCrude oil futures have been in a parallel uptrend since June 28th. On August 5th, Crude Oil futures tested the double top from April 13th, but were unable to break through. This is a bullish sign, as it suggests that buyers are still in control of the market. Now, we are waiting for a period of bullish consolidation before a breakout to the upside.
The next resistance level to watch is the $90 per barrel mark. If crude oil futures can break through this level, it could open the door to further gains.
Overall, the outlook for crude oil futures is bullish. The current uptrend is still intact, and buyers are still in control of the market. A breakout to the upside is likely in the near future.
USO
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 8/7/23For Monday, the 81.49 - 81.73 area can contain selling through the balance of the year, above which 86.67 remains a 2 - 3 week target, 102.96 attainable by the end of the year.
Upside Monday, 84.17 can contain session strength, while closing above 84.17 indicates 86.67 within several days, able to contain weekly buying pressures and the point to settle above for yielding 92.93 - 93.53 over the following 3 - 5 weeks, where the market can top out on a monthly basis.
Downside Monday, closing below 81.49 indicates a good August high, and quite possibly through the balance of the year, 75.49 then considered 1 - 2 week target, possibly yielding 62.14 by the end of the year.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 8/4/23For Friday, the 80.50 - 81.61 long-term resistance area can contain buying through summer activity, below which 76.77 is likely by the end of next week, 62.14 attainable over the next 3-5 months. On the other hand, a weekly settlement today at or above 82.42 (1% above 81.61 – page 2) would set off a meaningful buy signal into later year, 87.27 then expected within 3-5 weeks, 103.33 within 3-5 months (p 2). Downside Friday, 78.97 can contain intraday weakness, while breaking/opening below 78.97 allows 76.77 intraday, able to contain selling into next week and the point to settle below for then indicating 70.40 over the next 2-3 weeks.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 8/3/23For Thursday, the 80.65 - 81.61 long-term resistance area can contain buying through summer activity, below which 76.57 is likely within 1 - 2 weeks, 62.14 attainable over the next 3 - 5 months.
On the other hand, closing today above 82.42 signals 84.44 within the week, while a weekly settlement tomorrow at or above 82.42 (1% above 81.61) would set off a buy signal into later year, 87.27 then expected within 3 - 5 weeks, 103.33 within 3 - 5 months.
Downside Thursday, 78.56 can contain intraday weakness, while breaking/opening below 78.56 indicates 76.57 - 77.37 intraday, able to contain weekly selling pressures and the point to settle below for then indicating 70.40 over the next 2 - 3 weeks.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 8/2/23For Wednesday, the 80.65 - 81.61 long-term resistance area can contain buying through summer activity, below which 76.48 is likely within 1 - 2 weeks, 62.14 attainable over the next 3 - 5 months.
On the other hand, closing today above 82.42 signals 84.44 within the week, while a weekly settlement Friday at or above 82.42 (1% above 81.61) would set off a buy signal into later year, 87.27 then expected within 3 - 5 weeks, 103.33 within 3 - 5 months.
Downside Wednesday, closing below 80.53 indicates a good weekly high, 76.48 - 76.97 then expected by the end of next week, able to contain weekly selling pressures when tested and a meaningful downside continuation point into later August.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 8/1/23For Tuesday, the 80.65 - 81.61 long-term resistance area can contain buying through summer activity, below which 73.40 is likely by the end of August, 62.14 attainable over the next 3 - 5 months.
On the other hand, closing today above 82.42 signals 84.48 within the week, while a weekly settlement Friday at or above 82.42 (1% above 81.61) would set off a buy signal into later year, 87.27 then expected within 3 - 5 weeks, 103.33 over the following 3 - 5 months.
Downside Tuesday, 78.12 can contain session weakness, while closing below 78.12 indicates a good high through next week, 76.12 - 76.13 then expected over that time horizon, able to contain weekly selling pressures when tested and a meaningful downside continuation point into later August.
Retracement and higher high on CL?We successfully broke the weekly trend line and right now we are at the daily sell zone. I would like to see some retracement and then a higher high to around 83 area.
Also, we crossed the 200 EMA on the daily timeframe which is a strong trend reversal signal.
Entry - 77.5-78 (I would wait for a retracement to this level to go long. We can enter early around 78.5 if you do not want to miss the move.)
Stop - 76.85 ( I would like to see a daily close below this level )
First target - 80
Second target - 82
Final target - 83
Please let me know your inputs. Happy trading!
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 7/31/23A two-sided framework continues through summer between 62.14 long-term support, and 81.61 long-term resistance, both regions able to contain seasonal activity.
Upside, 81.61 can contain buying into later year, once tested 62.14 attainable over the following 3 - 5 months, where the market can bottom out on a seasonal basis.
On the other hand, a weekly settlement above 81.61 indicates a good low for the year, 87.27 then expected within 3 - 5 weeks, 103.33 considered a 3 - 5 month target able to contain buying well into next year.
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For Monday, the 80.65 - 81.61 long-term resistance area remains can contain buying through summer activity, below which 73.40 is likely by the end of August, 62.14 attainable over the next 3 - 5 months.
On the other hand, closing today above 81.61 allows 84.52 within the week, while a weekly settlement Friday at or above 82.42 (1% above 81.61) would set off a buy signal into later year, 87.27 then expected within 3 - 5 weeks, 103.33 over the following 3 - 5 months.
Downside Monday, 78.12 can contain session weakness, while closing below 78.12 indicates a good high through next week, 74.83 - 75.41 then expected within 1 - 2 weeks, able to contain weekly selling pressures when tested and a meaningful downside continuation point into later August.
GOLD to OIL prices the RATIO ANALYSIS ( and meaning )GLD is an ETF tracking gold futures prices across a blend of durations. USO is a similar ETF
for crude oil. I was interested to see what the ratios look like and considering the trading
advise of buy low should I be trading and bartering gold to get oil or viceversa. It is applicable
for be because I am in part a commodities trader and has some activities on the leveraged forex
market.
On the daily chart dressed with a set of two long term anchored VWAP standard deviation lines ,
and some horizontal static resistance lines added, it is obvous to me that the ratio is
currently sitting on the mean VWAP band for support confluent with the lower trendline
of the ascending megaphone pattern which is typically considered demostrative of increasing
volatility. I conclude that if I am a barterer I should trade my oil for gold. If I have gold only
and dry powder I should increase my gold holdings. If I prefer trading oil I should short the
market. This is because the ratio is set up to rise. The means that gold will rise or oil will
fall or some hybrid combination of that. My entry here is when the volatility on the indicator
is green and crosses over the running average.
This is a simple demonstration of how charting with TradingView can help a trader make well-
grounded and profitable trading decisions while lowering risk and making profits more probable.
What do you think of this analysis? What are your agreements or disagreements with it?
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 7/28/23For Friday, the 78.04 level can contain selling through the balance of the week, above which 80.65 - 81.73 long-term resistance remains a 3 - 5 day target able to contain buying through summer activity.
A weekly settlement today at or above 82.55 (1% above 81.73) would set off a significant buy signal into later year, 103.70 then expected over the next 3 - 5 months.
Downside Friday, closing below 78.04 indicates a good high through next week, 76.57 then expected within several days, 73.38 within 2 - 3 weeks, able to contain weekly selling pressures when tested and a meaningful downside continuation point into later August.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 7/27/23For Thursday, the 77.96 level can contain selling through the balance of the week, above which 80.65 - 81.73 long-term resistance remains a 3 - 5 day target able to contain buying through summer activity.
A weekly settlement above 81.73 would set off a significant buy signal into later year, 103.70 then expected over the following 3 - 5 months.
Downside Thursday, closing below 77.96 indicates a good weekly high, 76.23 then expected within several days, 73.35 within 1 - 2 weeks, able to contain weekly selling pressures when tested and a meaningful downside continuation point into later August.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 7/26/23For Wednesday, the 77.88 level can contain selling through the balance of the week, above which 80.65 - 81.73 long-term resistance remains a 3 - 5 day target able to contain buying through summer activity.
A weekly settlement above 81.73 would set off a significant buy signal into later year, 103.70 then expected over the following 3 - 5 months.
Downside Wednesday, closing below 77.88 indicates a good weekly high, 75.88 then expected within several days, 73.32 by the end of next week, able to contain weekly selling pressures when tested and a meaningful downside continuation point into later August.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 7/24/23A two-sided framework continues through summer between 62.14 long-term support, and 81.73 long-term resistance, both regions able to contain seasonal activity.
Inside this wide range, 77.71 can contain weekly buying pressures, 73.27 weekly selling pressures, with a settlement below 73.27 indicating 68.25 within several weeks, where the market can bottom out on a monthly basis.
Closing below 68.25 indicates 62.14 within several weeks, able to contain selling into autumn activity and a meaningful downside continuation point into later year.
Upside, a weekly settlement above 81.73 indicates a good low for the year, 103.70 seven considered 3 - 5 to month target able to contain buying well into next year.
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For Monday, the 76.98 - 77.71 region can contain weekly buying pressures, possibly through August activity, below which 73.27 remains 1 - 2 week objective, possibly yielding 68.25 by the end of August.
Downside, 74.66 can contain session weakness, while closing below 74.66 signals 73.27 tomorrow, able to contain weekly selling pressures and the point to settle below for signaling 68.25 within 1 - 2 more weeks, able to contain selling through August activity.
Upside Monday, closing above 77.71 indicates 80.61 - 81.73 by the end of next week, longer-term resistance able to contain buying through summer trade, with a weekly settlement above 81.73 setting off a significant buy signal into later year, 103.70 that expected over the following 3 - 5 months.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 7/21/23For Friday, 73.24 and contain selling into later next week, once tested the 77.63 formation attainable again within a full week of activity.
On the other hand, closing today below 73.24 signals 68.25 within 1 - 2 weeks, where the market can bottom out through August trade.
Upside Friday, the 77.63 - 77.72 area can contain buying through next week, and below which the market prone to testing 68.25 over the next several weeks.
On the other hand, closing above 77.72 signals 81.85 by the end of next week, longer-term resistance able to contain buying into later year and a significant upside continuation region over the same time horizon.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 7/20/23For Thursday, 73.22 and contain selling through the balance of the week, once tested the 77.55 formation attainable again by the end of next week.
On the other hand, closing today below 73.22 signals 68.25 within 1 - 2 weeks, where the market can bottom out through August activity.
Upside Thursday, the 77.55 - 77.72 area can contain buying through next week, and below which 68.25 is attainable over the next several weeks.
On the other hand, closing above 77.72 signals 81.85 by the end of next week, longer-term resistance able to contain buying into later year and a significant upside continuation region over the same time horizon.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 7/19/23For Wednesday, 76.00 can contain intraday buying pressures, below which 73.19 is attainable intraday, able to contain selling through the balance of the week and the region to settle below for then indicating 68.25 longer-term support within 1 - 2 more weeks.
Upside Wednesday, pushing/opening above 76.00 allows 77.46 - 77.72 intraday, able to contain weekly buying pressures, and below which 68.25 is attainable over the next several weeks.
On the other hand, closing above 77.72 signals 81.85 by the end of next week, able to contain buying into later year and a significant upside continuation region over the same time horizon.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 7/18/23For Tuesday, 76.20 can contain daily buying pressures, below which the targeted 72.87 - 73.34 area is likely today, able to contain selling into later week and the region to settle below for then indicating 67.08 within 1 - 2 more weeks.
Upside Tuesday, closing back above 76.20 signals 77.77 within 1 - 2 days, able to contain weekly buying pressures, and below which 67.08 is attainable over the next several weeks.
On the other hand, closing above 77.77 signals 81.85 within 1 - 2 weeks, long-term resistance able to contain buying into autumn activity and a significant upside continuation region over the same time horizon.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 7/17/23A two-sided framework continues through summer between 62.14 long-term support, and 81.85 long-term resistance, both regions able to contain seasonal activity.
Inside of this wide range 77.70 and 67.08 can both contain weekly activity, possibly into August trade.
Closing below 67.08 indicates 62.14 within several weeks, able to contain selling into autumn activity and the level to settle below for then indicating 53.87 within several months, longer term Fibonacci support able to contain selling into later year.
Upside, a settlement above 77.70 indicates 81.85 within 1 - 2 weeks, able to contain buying into autumn trade, and the region to settle above on a weekly basis for then indicating 94.67 within several months, able to contain annual highs.
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For Monday, 77.70 can contain weekly buying pressures, possibly into August activity, below which the 72.86 level is likely within the week, 67.08 attainable over the next 2 - 3 weeks.
Downside Monday, 75.45 can contain session weakness, while closing today below 75.45 signals a test tomorrow of 72.86 - 73.16, able to contain selling into later week and the region to settle below for then indicating 67.08 within 1 - 2 more weeks.
Upside Monday, closing above 77.70 signals 81.85 within 1 - 2 weeks, long-term resistance able to contain buying into autumn activity and a significant upside continuation region over the same time horizon.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 7/14/23For Friday, the 72.85 - 72.97 area can contain selling through the balance of the week, above which the 77.63 formation is likely by the end of next week or sooner, able to contain weekly buying pressures - possibly through the balance of July.
A daily settlement above 77.63 indicates the more significant 81.97 long-term resistance level within 1 - 2 more weeks, where the broader market can top out into later year and a significant upside continuation point over the same time horizon.
Downside Friday, closing below 72.85 signals 69.05 within several days, possibly yielding a retest within 1 - 2 weeks of 67.08, able to contain selling on a weekly basis and above which 77.63 remains attainable over the next 3 - 5 weeks.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 7/13/23For Thursday, the 72.41 - 72.84 area can contain selling through the balance of the week, above which the 77.56 formation is likely by the end of next week or sooner, able to contain weekly buying pressures - possibly through the balance of July.
A daily settlement above 77.56 indicates the more significant 81.97 long-term resistance level within 1 - 2 more weeks, where the broader market can top out into later year and a significant upside continuation point over the same time horizon.
Downside Thursday, closing below 72.41 signals 69.05 within several days, possibly yielding another test next week of 67.08 within 1 - 2 weeks, able to contain selling on a weekly basis and above which 77.56 is attainable over the next 3 - 5 weeks.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 7/12/23For Wednesday, 72.83 can contain selling through the balance of the week, above which the 77.48 formation is likely by the end of next week or sooner, able to contain weekly buying pressures when tested - possibly through the balance of July.
A daily settlement above 77.48 indicates the more significant 81.97 long-term resistance level within 1 - 2 more weeks, where the broader market can top out into later year and a significant upside continuation point over the same time horizon.
Downside Wednesday, closing below 72.83 signals 69.15 within several days, possibly yielding another test next week of 67.08, able to contain selling on a weekly basis and above which 77.48 is attainable over the next 3 - 5 weeks.
OILU an ETF for OIL - Leveraged and LongOILU is a risky high volatility ETF on oil exploration and production. Where there are risk
and volatility there can also be plentiful profits. On the 4H chart,OILU can be seen breaking
up through long-term anchored VWAP bands in a trend that began in mid-May. Price is
now approaching the mean VWAP lines. The POC line validates those VWAP lines coming in
at nearly an identical price level. On the MACD, negative amplitudes have gradually decreased
in a fashion consistent with bullish divergence. The RSI indicator shows the MTF RSIs to be
in mid-range suitable for taking an entry without evidence of oversold or overbought
parameters. Fundamentally, a variety of factors including
OPEC the re-emergence of the Chinese economy, Russia's war fear of a recession causing a
decrease in demand for oil all have contributed to a mixed picture. The chart is suggesting
a long trade to me and so I will take up the suggestion. I will set a stop loss at the recent
pivot low of $32 while targeting the highest VWAP band at $47. I will raise the stop loss
to break-even when price hits $38 while respecting the ATR and volatility. I see this as
a safe trade with a potential upside of about 33%
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 7/11/23For Tuesday, 72.83 can contain selling into later week, above which the 77.41 formation is likely by the end of next week or sooner, able to contain weekly buying pressures when tested, possibly through the balance of July.
A daily settlement above 77.41 indicates the more significant 81.97 long-term resistance level within 1 - 2 more weeks, where the broader market can top out into later year and a significant upside continuation point over the same time horizon.
Downside Tuesday, closing below 72.83 signals 69.25 within several days, possibly allowing another test of 67.08 by the end of next week, able to contain selling on a weekly basis and above which 77.41 is attainable over the next 3 - 5 weeks.