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USO

CRUDE - the technical alignment to the UPsideJsut reviewing Crude, especially in light of the recent major gap up last week after OPEC decided to cut output... Orientate to the weekly chart shows the TD Setup displayed and the Sell Setup (green box early 2022) and Buy Setup (red box mid 2022). These set the TDST, and the support is at 66.12, being the lowest point of the Sell Setup. Noted that the Buy Setup did not close below the TDST, and so noted that the long term (weeks) primary trend is bullish. Price action however, decided to test the TDST in March 2023 and bounced off. This is a bullish sign and was an expected bounce point (trade taken and exited btw, shared in earlier analysis). This bounce off was followed through by a nice gap up and a Sell Setup (bullish) restarted. Noted also that 123.68 is the TDST, which is a little far for the next two weeks, with the exception of an anomaly of very severe events happening, it is unlikely to break that level any time soon. Nonetheless, there are ranges to watch... the yellow, red, and green boxes denote these. The yellow box is the major range which Crude is ranging and needs to break out of. Expected to as the break back in a few weeks ago suggests that a breakout is in the cards. You see, when a breakdown is reversed and price breaks back into a range, it tends to go out the other side later. For now, the gap up represents a gap range that is likely to be tested to close the gap. However, price action, and other technical indicators like the MACD and VolDov are suggesting that the attempt to close the gap would be short lived. For this, a smaller time frame analysis marked out the green box for a probably bounce off support level in the likely to fail close the gap attempt, at about 77.5 to 78. Shorter term is likely to see a stall up to 82ish. Long term, bullish, but a shallow retracement and then reversal upside should be in play...
NYMEX:CL1!
by Auguraltrader
USO (CRUDE) Bullish Bounce... something is up!Previously, it was observed and expected that Crude was to bounce. Instead, Crude made a dive down and out of the boxed range. For a moment, took a second take on the analysis and decided that it might have been a bit before its time, since the longer term pointed to two trends; crude to go up and USD to go down. So, a chance came when USO triggered twice in the 15min chart ( system alerts set based on 15min intraday chart as a personal standard ). It was a calculated risk and probability count. USO/Crude had oversold, bounced off a couple of times, and broke our of a short term trend line. The Daily chart had a range breakdown, followed by long tails for the previous three days. It appeared to have a good probability of recovering. A position was taken (USO 50 delta Call). From there, we can observe the volatility (and hence you prefer to be in earlier and smaller position) and the development of the trade in the daily chart shows the opening of gap ups and closing of gap downs. Furthermore, USO / Crude broke back into the range. And for such failures that recover and break back into range (orange and/or yellow box), there is a high probability of breaking out the other end. And yet other observations have the Fibonacci retracement bounce off the 50% to project a near term target of about 65.68 (150%). All these are encouraged by the previous day's candlestick as Monday's candle gapped up and closed a previous gap down, and ended the day very near to intraday high. Daily technical indicators (MACD and VolDiv) have crossed over and are starting a bullish alignment.(Noted that the breakdown out of the range did have a VolDiv bullish divergence that was very obvious, an early suggesting that it was going to bounce and recover. Going forward, USO is starting to be overbought, and a possible pullback to head up further to near term target is expected. Could be more bullish or otherwise more bearish. but am expecting the range support to hold better this time.
AMEX:USOLong
by Auguraltrader
USO: Forest Bathing 🌲🌳 🌲🌳Forest bathing can improve mental or physical health, as spending time in nature can reduce stress and pain and boost positive mood. The United States Oil Fund should take this to heart and set out for the lush composite consisting of the turquoise zone between $52.24 and $43.83 and the green zone between $46.36 and $40.29. Therefore, it should drop below the support at $63.00, which should provide further downwards pressure. Wave 2 in turquoise should then ideally finish just before the support at $45.30, changing into upwards movement afterward. It is also possible, though, that USO could climb above the resistance at $72.22 to expand the last low in the form of wave alt.b in orange first before heading downwards.
AMEX:USO
by MarketIntel
CRUDE to bounce too!Been a while since crude futures were reviewed, and since the last post, crude categorically dropped... but it maintained a decent range between 70-80/82. The thing about crude now is that it appears to be coiling and is starting to show signs of a break out. Here is how I see it... the candlestick pattern (especially in the Daily chart, not shown here) is bullish, at least leaning towards bullishness. The MACD is aligning up, and the VolDiv is tapering but not crossed over yet. The MACD is forming that not so subtle anymore bullish divergence. Also noted that the TD Sequential is still in bullish primary trend mode (not shown here). Now, to qualify a good break out, we need to set some parameters. 82 is the break out resistance level (green line) and this is about half of the range since August 2022. Coincidentally (or not), the 23EMA is at 81, and the weekly price needs to close above 81. And a really good break out (out of the yello box range) above 94 would be seriously bullish, although that might mean the Ukr-Russ conflict might have escalated. Sidenote that the USD in a choke-hold and depreciating would help Crude rally up more. Alternatively, a 23EMA failure, MACD cross under can happen as the VolDiv accelerates further into bearish territory. a close below 72 would favour the bear case. Given the longer term view, it appears Crude is ready for a (surprise) bounce, and is likely to revisit the last low in December 2022, probably May-July 2023. While this is not obvious in the weekly chart, the Monthly chart TD Sequential indicates, so heads up.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Auguraltrader
Oil is screaming...what should we be aware of?Oil the leading energy commodity is signaling negative price action. An MTop Formation is on watch. If we get a weekly close below $70 it triggers the Topping formation and sways the probabilities in favor's for more downside action. This large time frame pattern has a potential to go down to $20...I know, I can barely believe it myself. A clear weekly reversal rejection has been observed off a key resistance. Downward momentum is in play. Next potential but level im watching is $65/$66 as oil will have technical support bounces.
TVC:USOIL
by Trading-Capital
1
Crude Oil, Crude, CL, USO, UCOI had been waiting for months for CL to test the green shaded area which coincides to an untested weekly level of demand dating back to Dec/21. When we wicked down on Nov 28 and popped up I thought "damn, I missed the move" but instead of chasing I decided to wait (learning patience). A few days later we got the move I had been long waiting for and we have seen a successful backtest of that support level. Both weekly and daily RSI are showing a bull divergence, Weekly BBands are stretched, TSI has turned up on the daily, we had a demark buy last month and we are due for a technical bounce back to the 200 ema around $88. What has me particularly intrigued is some untested supply levels above between 98-108. Anything can happen of course but this could be setting up to be a nice opportunity.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by GreenBoxTrading
CRUDE OIL Bounces... how high?As previously mentioned, Crude was to break 76, and head down to a target of 67. It did break down below 76 decisively, but found a support at 70. And it appears to be bouncing off the 70 support level. There are two main ranges and in combination, the yellow box denotes the current consolidation area over the next couple of months. Noted the Bullish Divergence on the MACD, although the VolDiv (lower panel) is still showing some bearish momentum. Expecting a (consolidating) bounce to 85-90, the latter being resistance.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Auguraltrader
1
CRUDE down first before all elseA few simple observations that tell of Crude falling over, despite a previous week of strong bullish price movement from OPEC cuts announcements. Weekly chart had crude price break above the 55EMA strongly the previous week with a marubozu like candlestick. However, not only did it failed resistance at 94 (dark green line); it broke back down in failure of the weekly 55EMA (white line). Weekly candlestick formed a Dark Cloud Cover, fully qualified (unlike the SPY. Read about the Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern here . This candlestick pattern does not happen often, but is significant as it tells a very logical underlying issue. The gap up is an exhaustion spike, then the downward momentum to more than half of the previous bullish body underscores the overwhelming of the bulls and the victory of the bears. A follow through down candle seals it. To break the current TD Sequential Setup, the incoming week must close way below 79. Oddly enough, to change the primary trend in the daily chart to a bearish trend, price has to close below 79. Coincidence? Maybe, but 79 IS the critical support now. The daily chart (right) has its own failures too. We see a clear breakdown failure of the daily 55EMA, coincidentally about a similar level as the weekly 55EMA (white line). With a retest failure just this week, it ended with a nice large red candle that engulfed the previous day's test of the 55EMA. Here, technical indicators all show more downside to come. In like with all of these, the expected surge of the USD (recently posted and linked below) over the next few weeks; it appears that crude is about to tank to 70-75. Previously projected a downside target of 70, might have to readjust closer to 75, as conditions continue to develop and evolve. Crude appears bearish (again) in the short term.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Auguraltrader
CRUDE break downCrude oil is breaking down, and is doign that really fast as well. Unfortunately, this is not expected to abate inflation, negligibly if at all. Part of this slide down comes from a surging USD, and the other half is the anticipation of a recession due to the spiking interest rates. The Crude futures weekly chart is all bearish, candlesticks, indicators, etc. The projected downside target of 70 is feasible, but possible for a stall/bounce at 75. The daily chart shows a decisive breakdown out of the support range, heading to the 1.618 Fibonacci projection target at 70. While most indicators are bearish, oddly noted that there is some volume divergence. This is the first hint that an underlying rally might be forming... more on this as it develops.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Auguraltrader
OXY Buy the Dip LONGOn the 4H OXY is in a long up trend in part supported by the buy of Mr. Buffett In the intermediate term as shown on the chart, it is in a slowly rising parallel channel while at present it is at the bottom of the channel sitting on the POC of the long term volume profile and near to the lower Bollinger Band. I see this as a buy low sell high opportunity, The is confirmed with the MACD a lagging indicator with the lines below the histogram and not yet crossing over. Spot oil may be at a pivot point and OXY is setting up long.
NYSE:OXYLong
by AwesomeAvani
CRUDE to continue downward spiralCrude prices are oddly (well, perhaps not so) set to spiral down further below 80. Here is technically why it would... Light Crude Oil futures weekly chart show the recent consolidation around the weekly 55EMA, and that it appears to have broken down decisively, particularly closing at the lowest in the last 5 weeks. Technical indicators, particularly the RPM, suggest more momentum as does the weekly candlestick. The daily chart had a 55EMA failure with a large bearish engulfing candle that overwhelmed a decently large bullish candle the day before. This was followed by a down candle, completing a Three Outside Down candlestick pattern. As if it was not enough, a Gap Down was further followed by a candlestick that closed the week with a long top tail. The daily MACD crossed under the signal line and pushed further down into the bearish territory. Taken together, all these are simply pointing to more downside, likely to press below 80, targeting 70 towards the end of September. On another note, the USD appears to be technically bullish and pushing further up. Ceteris paribus , a rising USD usually pushes Crude prices lower.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Auguraltrader
1