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USO

CRUDE down first before all elseA few simple observations that tell of Crude falling over, despite a previous week of strong bullish price movement from OPEC cuts announcements. Weekly chart had crude price break above the 55EMA strongly the previous week with a marubozu like candlestick. However, not only did it failed resistance at 94 (dark green line); it broke back down in failure of the weekly 55EMA (white line). Weekly candlestick formed a Dark Cloud Cover, fully qualified (unlike the SPY. Read about the Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern here . This candlestick pattern does not happen often, but is significant as it tells a very logical underlying issue. The gap up is an exhaustion spike, then the downward momentum to more than half of the previous bullish body underscores the overwhelming of the bulls and the victory of the bears. A follow through down candle seals it. To break the current TD Sequential Setup, the incoming week must close way below 79. Oddly enough, to change the primary trend in the daily chart to a bearish trend, price has to close below 79. Coincidence? Maybe, but 79 IS the critical support now. The daily chart (right) has its own failures too. We see a clear breakdown failure of the daily 55EMA, coincidentally about a similar level as the weekly 55EMA (white line). With a retest failure just this week, it ended with a nice large red candle that engulfed the previous day's test of the 55EMA. Here, technical indicators all show more downside to come. In like with all of these, the expected surge of the USD (recently posted and linked below) over the next few weeks; it appears that crude is about to tank to 70-75. Previously projected a downside target of 70, might have to readjust closer to 75, as conditions continue to develop and evolve. Crude appears bearish (again) in the short term.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Auguraltrader
CRUDE break downCrude oil is breaking down, and is doign that really fast as well. Unfortunately, this is not expected to abate inflation, negligibly if at all. Part of this slide down comes from a surging USD, and the other half is the anticipation of a recession due to the spiking interest rates. The Crude futures weekly chart is all bearish, candlesticks, indicators, etc. The projected downside target of 70 is feasible, but possible for a stall/bounce at 75. The daily chart shows a decisive breakdown out of the support range, heading to the 1.618 Fibonacci projection target at 70. While most indicators are bearish, oddly noted that there is some volume divergence. This is the first hint that an underlying rally might be forming... more on this as it develops.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Auguraltrader
OXY Buy the Dip LONGOn the 4H OXY is in a long up trend in part supported by the buy of Mr. Buffett In the intermediate term as shown on the chart, it is in a slowly rising parallel channel while at present it is at the bottom of the channel sitting on the POC of the long term volume profile and near to the lower Bollinger Band. I see this as a buy low sell high opportunity, The is confirmed with the MACD a lagging indicator with the lines below the histogram and not yet crossing over. Spot oil may be at a pivot point and OXY is setting up long.
NYSE:OXYLong
by AwesomeAvani
CRUDE to continue downward spiralCrude prices are oddly (well, perhaps not so) set to spiral down further below 80. Here is technically why it would... Light Crude Oil futures weekly chart show the recent consolidation around the weekly 55EMA, and that it appears to have broken down decisively, particularly closing at the lowest in the last 5 weeks. Technical indicators, particularly the RPM, suggest more momentum as does the weekly candlestick. The daily chart had a 55EMA failure with a large bearish engulfing candle that overwhelmed a decently large bullish candle the day before. This was followed by a down candle, completing a Three Outside Down candlestick pattern. As if it was not enough, a Gap Down was further followed by a candlestick that closed the week with a long top tail. The daily MACD crossed under the signal line and pushed further down into the bearish territory. Taken together, all these are simply pointing to more downside, likely to press below 80, targeting 70 towards the end of September. On another note, the USD appears to be technically bullish and pushing further up. Ceteris paribus , a rising USD usually pushes Crude prices lower.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Auguraltrader
1
LONG CRUDE - Trading with COT dataCOT Data is pointing to Crude Oil ( NYMEX:CL1! or AMEX:USO ) being primed to pop after it's seasonal downturn This is a great example where money management is key as well as not blindly using the COT data as the sole reason for entry. Personally, I have a proprietary daily chart indicator I use to enter trades where COT data is giving signals. Crude Oil has been declining all the way down since June despite COT data that is telling us it is ready to go up (My proprietary indicator did not once provide a buy signal throughout that time period). I'm looking closely for a short-term signal to enter off of this week Notes on My Trading Methodology and What I'm Even Talking About COT Definitions: - COT: Commitments of Traders Reports - A weekly report published by the government (CFTC) that shows long and short positions of the below 3 groups (As well as much more data I don't look at). We look at the NET positions of these 3 groups and compare them to historical levels to signal trade opportunities 1- Commercials: Hedgers - We want to trade with them when they're at extreme levels (Think Tyson, Cargill, General Mills, etc) 2- Large Speculators: Hedge funds and large institutions - We want to fade them when they are at max positions (Think suits in NYC and commodity funds) 3- Small Speculators: People/institutions trading small lot sizes not big enough to report to CFTC - We want to fade their max positions as well since they represent the public (Think dude in his PJs trading and small trading firms) Indicators on Chart: - The first indicator shows the net positions of the 3 groups above plotted over time - The second indicator is an index of the relative buying/selling of commercials over a certain lookback period. Anything above 95 is looking for buy, look to sell when it hits 0 - Note: Just because the Commercial's net position is negative doesn't mean it can't be relatively net long and signal a buy (same in the opposite scenario) Trade Setup - Both Must Happen: - When commercials are at max levels we are alerted to buy or sell (Depending on the criteria above) - On a daily chart , use technical indicators, candlestick patterns, news, etc to enter the trade (not shown here) - Added bonus when the trend is your friend (I use a Multiple Moving Averages indicator to visualize)
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Rudeadam18
CRUDE - now what?Initially, it appeared that Crude prices were very robust and strong. Then came a retracement after a lower high and formed a lower low, and it appeared weak (in the face of a looming recession. Missing the downside target, Crude actually appears that it found a base, just bellow the weekly 55EMA. Hint is mostly in the daily chart, where there is an obvious closed gap down, and as RPM accelerates upwards, the MACD is showing a bullish divergence. The coming week, breaking above 92, and then 95 is important to establish a good effort to reach the daily 55EMA, estimated about 95 then. So Crude is expected to have some upside in the short term...
NYMEX:CL1!
by Auguraltrader
Commodities are back, $UNG near breakoutThe natural gas ETF is forming a cup & handle with pivot buy at $31.60. This behavior signals a comeback for stocks in the gas industry. Some of them are NASDAQ:NFE , which I was stopped out in June. NYSE:VET and AMEX:LNG . These 4 are in the top of my watchlist. All are in confirmed uptrends and leading the sector. Several oil stocks also look good but I think that they are just following the gas stocks. I say this as the oil ETF AMEX:USO isn't as near of a new high as AMEX:UNG . Look for stocks with gas exposure.
AMEX:UNGLong
by dpuleo19
2
CRUDE prices look very weak - 82, and then 70.Reviewing the Crude price action, and it appears weaker than stronger, after its retracement. At this point, the weekly chart is struggling to stay above the 55EMA, but technicals are showing strong weakness that would pull prices lower, and below the 55EMA in the coming weeks. A hint that this is the case comes from the candlestick of the week that just closed. Although it reclaimed above the weekly 55EMA, the candlestick did not close above the 50% mark of the previous candle, and left a top tail. This are indications that the coming week should be heading down below the 55EMA again. The daily chart accentuates those hints... the recent late week surge in crude prices met the resistance band upper range, and Friday closed with a rather full inside candle. Like a Harami, this is a bearish indication of a bearish reversal. IF so, the Fibonacci projections point to a likely test and fail at 90, an immediate support at 82, and downside target at 70 ( by mid-end October). Technical indicators appear a tad weak with the RPM losing steam, and the MACD struggling to make a comeback with a crossover. Am projecting a triangle support at 70... will know in time.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Auguraltrader
$RRC, cup & handle with a explosion gap pivot play Range Resources Corp is in the exploration and production of AMEX:USO and AMEX:UNG in the US. It was recentlty feature in IBD and got me interested because its good looking cup & handle. Today managed to breakout with a gap. This gap should act as resistance. As the market still needs to prove itself, I won't buy this breakout but the breakout from today's high with a stop loss just below yesterday's high. This strategy is called Explosion Gap Pivot. It uses the gap range as support.
NYSE:RRCLong
by dpuleo19
2
Crude Kaput-edSo... Crude appears to have kaput and broke down quite a bit. Changed outlook, and the triangle has been readjusted and immediate target at 84 for the week ahead; and lower to 70 if the downside momentum continues. With the long weekly candles (momentum), slicing through the weekly 55EMA, breaking down the support ranges, and alignment between the weekly and daily technical indicators; and in addition, a trend change pattern breakdown as well. These, together with this past week's breakdown, and the breakdown of the earlier triangle, more downside can be expected, as far down as 70. That is what the chart is telling right now... A very interesting, and admittedly, unexpected outcome for an energy commodity. Perhaps the spectre of a recession is that overwhelming.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Auguraltrader