Oil have much further down to go imo...Powell will put a nail to oil prices during Jackson Hole speech.
USO
USOILUSOIL long idea based on current PA. We could see Yen continuation to the downside if Oil makes a rally higher here, due to the amount of Oil importing into Japan, it backs up my thinking of JPY falling and CADJPY rising if we see an impulsive move upwards here.
Crude Oil PERFECT Channel-Next Stop 102The decline in crude since March channels perfectly. This is either a pullback before another leg higher or a more drawn out consolidation (favored view). In any case, 102 looks like the next stop. 90.50-92 is support. -Jamie
decision time for OILOil has run into overhead resistance at the 50 DSMA after an impressive 5 day run off the most recent lows. Does it now cower in the wake of a hawkish Powell at Jackson Hole later this week, or does it say Come and Get Me, Big Guy?!
LONG CRUDE - Trading with COT dataCOT Data is pointing to Crude Oil ( NYMEX:CL1! or AMEX:USO ) being primed to pop after it's seasonal downturn
This is a great example where money management is key as well as not blindly using the COT data as the sole reason for entry. Personally, I have a proprietary daily chart indicator I use to enter trades where COT data is giving signals. Crude Oil has been declining all the way down since June despite COT data that is telling us it is ready to go up (My proprietary indicator did not once provide a buy signal throughout that time period). I'm looking closely for a short-term signal to enter off of this week
Notes on My Trading Methodology and What I'm Even Talking About
COT Definitions:
- COT: Commitments of Traders Reports - A weekly report published by the government (CFTC) that shows long and short positions of the below 3 groups (As well as much more data I don't look at). We look at the NET positions of these 3 groups and compare them to historical levels to signal trade opportunities
1- Commercials: Hedgers - We want to trade with them when they're at extreme levels (Think Tyson, Cargill, General Mills, etc)
2- Large Speculators: Hedge funds and large institutions - We want to fade them when they are at max positions (Think suits in NYC and commodity funds)
3- Small Speculators: People/institutions trading small lot sizes not big enough to report to CFTC - We want to fade their max positions as well since they represent the public (Think dude in his PJs trading and small trading firms)
Indicators on Chart:
- The first indicator shows the net positions of the 3 groups above plotted over time
- The second indicator is an index of the relative buying/selling of commercials over a certain lookback period. Anything above 95 is looking for buy, look to sell when it hits 0
- Note: Just because the Commercial's net position is negative doesn't mean it can't be relatively net long and signal a buy (same in the opposite scenario)
Trade Setup - Both Must Happen:
- When commercials are at max levels we are alerted to buy or sell (Depending on the criteria above)
- On a daily chart , use technical indicators, candlestick patterns, news, etc to enter the trade (not shown here)
- Added bonus when the trend is your friend (I use a Multiple Moving Averages indicator to visualize)
CRUDE - now what?Initially, it appeared that Crude prices were very robust and strong. Then came a retracement after a lower high and formed a lower low, and it appeared weak (in the face of a looming recession. Missing the downside target, Crude actually appears that it found a base, just bellow the weekly 55EMA.
Hint is mostly in the daily chart, where there is an obvious closed gap down, and as RPM accelerates upwards, the MACD is showing a bullish divergence. The coming week, breaking above 92, and then 95 is important to establish a good effort to reach the daily 55EMA, estimated about 95 then.
So Crude is expected to have some upside in the short term...
Commodities are back, $UNG near breakoutThe natural gas ETF is forming a cup & handle with pivot buy at $31.60. This behavior signals a comeback for stocks in the gas industry.
Some of them are NASDAQ:NFE , which I was stopped out in June. NYSE:VET and AMEX:LNG . These 4 are in the top of my watchlist.
All are in confirmed uptrends and leading the sector. Several oil stocks also look good but I think that they are just following the gas stocks. I say this as the oil ETF AMEX:USO isn't as near of a new high as AMEX:UNG .
Look for stocks with gas exposure.
CRUDE prices look very weak - 82, and then 70.Reviewing the Crude price action, and it appears weaker than stronger, after its retracement.
At this point, the weekly chart is struggling to stay above the 55EMA, but technicals are showing strong weakness that would pull prices lower, and below the 55EMA in the coming weeks. A hint that this is the case comes from the candlestick of the week that just closed. Although it reclaimed above the weekly 55EMA, the candlestick did not close above the 50% mark of the previous candle, and left a top tail. This are indications that the coming week should be heading down below the 55EMA again.
The daily chart accentuates those hints... the recent late week surge in crude prices met the resistance band upper range, and Friday closed with a rather full inside candle. Like a Harami, this is a bearish indication of a bearish reversal. IF so, the Fibonacci projections point to a likely test and fail at 90, an immediate support at 82, and downside target at 70 ( by mid-end October). Technical indicators appear a tad weak with the RPM losing steam, and the MACD struggling to make a comeback with a crossover.
Am projecting a triangle support at 70... will know in time.
$RRC, cup & handle with a explosion gap pivot play Range Resources Corp is in the exploration and production of AMEX:USO and AMEX:UNG in the US.
It was recentlty feature in IBD and got me interested because its good looking cup & handle. Today managed to breakout with a gap. This gap should act as resistance.
As the market still needs to prove itself, I won't buy this breakout but the breakout from today's high with a stop loss just below yesterday's high. This strategy is called Explosion Gap Pivot. It uses the gap range as support.
Crude Kaput-edSo... Crude appears to have kaput and broke down quite a bit. Changed outlook, and the triangle has been readjusted and immediate target at 84 for the week ahead; and lower to 70 if the downside momentum continues.
With the long weekly candles (momentum), slicing through the weekly 55EMA, breaking down the support ranges, and alignment between the weekly and daily technical indicators; and in addition, a trend change pattern breakdown as well. These, together with this past week's breakdown, and the breakdown of the earlier triangle, more downside can be expected, as far down as 70.
That is what the chart is telling right now...
A very interesting, and admittedly, unexpected outcome for an energy commodity. Perhaps the spectre of a recession is that overwhelming.
CRUDE facing resistanceCrude Oil futures appear to be facing some resistance about 100.
It is clear that the 95 support level has been holding well, especially when the weekly 55EMA meets price at the bottom of the triangle.
Daily chart tested 100 resistance to fail but technical indicators suggest that there should be more breakouts but not before some more consolidation.
Wait for it.
USOILOil longs if we can break this area of value and maintain above it, we should see imbalance to the upside, late in the week now, proceed with caution.
PSCE - Getting Alpha on US Oil and Nat Gas. Up trend strong, pull backs seem to be respecting fibs which only tells me that there is possibly professional buying interest. Economic stage fits a good backdrop. USO etf is almost too heavily traded imo opinion, and it gets muted returns because of the size of the fund inflows and outflows. Also because the companies that make up USO also have the same muted return issues. this more obscure fund tracks small cap stocks in the oil and gas sector. Seems to move more dynamically and systematically. Two things trend traders like to see...Things that follow rules and follow them HARD.
Will be waiting for signals and taking them when they come. just my opinion
Energy stocks & commodities basing for coming reversal?Using XLE to represent the sector, it appears to be forming a "W" pattern, which could morph into an IH&S reversal pattern, but it still needs a little more time. Green zone is general support, and probable good intermediate term buying opportunity, maybe lasting into the end of the year. Pink boxes are gaps I would expect to be filled before reversal manifests.
USOILPotential for mean reversion back to balanced area we see above around the $99 mark, lets see if Price can keep above Fixed VP POC.
CRUDE Bounce and rehash IILast week's assessment was way off, admittedly. No follow through and just a turn and dive. It went further down to 92, and bounced strongly to end the day, and the week with a candlestick and long lower tail.
Expecting bullish week ahead... later in the week.
104 resistance, then 108 next resistance.
USOILIs there some value in oil longs here, we can see we are trading just below the fair value range highlighted by the VP, price has contracted and broken the fixed VP, we could look to take some longs back to a fairer price here.
CRUDE Bounced off & rehash...As previously expected, Crude bounced off 95 (95.10 to be exact) and it bounced off with gusto, to reclaim 100 support. The bounce was a fast intraday check-in at 95, and the following day clocked a bullish engulfing of sorts. This was then followed by another bullish day to end the week with a long lower tail, indicative that between 95 to 100, likes a lot of demand.
The daily technical indicators are starting to crossover.
This recovery bounce is also awesome as it broke down and out of the triangle and then returned back in. For technical analysts, we do know that when this happens, there is a higher probability that there will be an exit on the other side... ie. a breakout is imminent.
Note that the triangle was updated by readjustment from previously.
In the weekly chart, while the technical indicators are still trudging lower, the candlestick shows a temporary spike out of the triangle only to make it back in. This is a bullish indication IMHO.
Taken together, expect the bullish run to meet some resistance about 112-114 in the following days of the incoming week. There needs to be a higher low, that bounces off the triangle support... and then we just might get a bull run breakout in early August 2022.
Watch this one!
ps. Target breakout (dotted green arrow) and upside target of 165 updated. Pennant pattern (fibonacci) projection also added (dashed green arrow)
USO Strong buy. Long call 200 optionsIf I were still trading, which I am not. I would invest in long 200 call options on USO. I am considering opening an options account and investing in long call options with a strike of 200. I would use the price of the long call as my maximum lose tolerance level. Meaning, If my max risk per trade was $150, I would buy (long) a 200 strike price that would only cost me $150; if I am wrong, I lose my max risk tolerance of $150. If I am right, I get exponential profit potential.
Stop putting all of your money into buying and holding. Select entry points, max risk tolerance and strategic entry intervals. Long USO seems great right now. If I am wrong, which can and will happen, the max risk will be automatically handled in a long option position. Learn option trading and stop giving greedy assholes your money.
Check out the Cash in/Cash out Report a free open source indicator on Tradingview.com. Here is the indicator If you have question on how to use and setup the indicator, please let me know. If the indicator gets 1,000 likes I will turn it into a free iOS and Android app. Let me know if it saves or makes you money!!
Crude Oil - CL Weekly WedgeThis grows increasingly curious.
Weekly Negative Divergences continue to expand
as Price (Porpper for ESG/Green Ag.) continues to
hold the Range.
___________________________________________
The Stickup for Sellers always begins Pre-NYMEX
simulated Pit for the AM Session, only to dump back
between the Sim PM Session.
Easy "A" Trade.
Get some.
Updated monthly for USO using the Cash In/Cash out ReportThis is the monthly USO chart with the Cash in/Cash out Report applied. The Cash in/Cash out report is a free and open source indicator here on TradingView. However, since Tradingview won't allow me to give a direct link to a free product on their own site, you will need to understand how to add an indicator to your chart. Please post comments if you want help installing the free open source indicator to your charts. The Cash in/Cash our Report is set to three. We are seeing three months of rolling cash into and out of the market. The green bubble forming is the rolling sum of the period set by the user, three months in this case. The individual bars are the months. USO looks like a strong buy right now. However, I am much better at identifying short positions. What do you think, are you long or short USO?
If the Cash in/Cash out report gets 1000 likes, it will become a free Android and iOS app. If you make or save money using the Cash in/Cash out report, give it a like!
USOILOil makes a double rejection of the $102 Level, and we are seeing price action that suggest a strong rally is inbound. We can enter long traders and aim higher, either first arrow or second arrow as TP1, TP2, Highly volatile so trade with caution and respect for the markets.
USO: Rubber BallLike a rubber ball, USO has bounced off the green zone between $77.92 and $79.69 twice and finished wave 5 in green. We now expect it to jump a bit higher still to finish wave ii in orange before dropping down until the support line at $67.68. There, it should rebound to complete wave iv in orange and resume the overarching downward movement afterwards, which should lead into the turquoise zone between $60.18 and $43.48. There is a 30% chance, though, that USO could jump above the resistance at $87.83, thus continuing the ascent instead.
