Oil slumps as demand outlook dims and supply risesMacro:
- Oil prices stay weak as trade war fears weigh on global growth and energy demand.
- The IEA cut its 2025 oil demand growth forecast to just 730k bpd, the slowest pace in five years, down from 1.03 mln.
- Meanwhile, OPEC+ output is rising, with Saudi Arabia set to boost exports to China in May and Russia maintaining steady production, fueling oversupply concerns.
Technical:
- USOIL is in a clear downtrend fueled by lower highs and lows. The price is below both EMAs, indicating persistent downward momentum.
- If USOIL closes above the resistance at 63.30, the price may retest the following resistance at 65.80.
- On the contrary, remaining below 68.30 may pave the way to retest the support at 57.25 and 53.85, respectively.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Crude Oil WTI
Bullish bounce?USO/USD has bounced off the support level which is an overlap support and could potentially rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 60.95
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
Stop loss: 60.01
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection.
Take profit: 63.27
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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Strategic Analysis of Crude OilCurrently, in the daily trend of crude oil, it is temporarily maintaining a range-bound consolidation at a low level. After consecutive periods of oscillation, there are signs that the technical pattern is gradually being repaired. In terms of the large-scale cycle trend, it is likely that crude oil will still have some rebounds.
The short-term support below is around the level of 60.10. It is advisable to mainly go long during pullbacks and go short during rebounds as a supplement.
Oil trading strategy:
buy @ 60.30-60.50
sl 59.5
tp 61.20-61.40
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Daily Analysis of USOILChanges in Crude Oil Supply and Demand:
Demand Side: China imposes tariffs on U.S. crude oil, raising the import cost and reducing the import volume. The United States imposes tariffs on energy imports from Canada and Mexico, affecting the crude oil exports of these two countries to the U.S., reducing the demand for crude oil in the United States and putting pressure on the price of USOIL 😟.
Supply Side: After China reduces its imports of U.S. crude oil, it increases imports from other exporting countries, changing the global crude oil supply pattern and possibly strengthening the expectation of a supply surplus. The decrease in U.S. crude oil exports may lead to an increase in domestic inventory, exerting downward pressure on the price of USOIL 😣.
💰💰💰 USOIL💰💰💰
🎯 Sell@61.0 - 61.2
🎯 TP 59.5 - 59.5
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How to Trade the Tariff Turmoil: Markets Now Move on HeadlinesMarkets in 2025 have become increasingly unpredictable, largely driven by one factor: tariffs. President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policy has shaken investor confidence and turned global markets into a rollercoaster. The key to navigating this new environment? Understand that markets are no longer just reacting to economic data—they’re reacting to headlines.
The biggest shock came on April 2, when Trump announced a 145% tariff on all Chinese imports and “reciprocal” tariffs on dozens of other countries. The reaction was immediate: the S&P 500 dropped nearly 15% at its lowest point that week, and investors rushed to sell risk assets. Days later, markets sharply reversed after Trump temporarily suspended some tariffs. That sparked a rally—tech stocks soared, Apple rose 5%, and the Nasdaq gained over 2%.
But the relief was short-lived. Conflicting messages and partial rollbacks continued to send markets up and down. Earlier, on March 4, tariffs were placed on Canada and Mexico, while China’s rates were doubled. These moves led to more selling in stocks and a spike in demand for bonds. By mid-April, exemptions for electronics boosted tech names again, but overall market sentiment remained fragile.
How to Trade This New Market
The main lesson for traders and investors is clear:
We’re now in a headline-driven market. Traditional strategies that rely solely on fundamentals or economic cycles are being overshadowed by sudden political developments. Here’s how to adapt:
Stay Nimble and News-Aware
Be ready for fast moves. Market direction can flip in minutes based on a single press conference or tweet. Have alerts set for major geopolitical and tariff-related headlines. Reduce position sizes during uncertainty and avoid holding large trades through major announcements.
Rethink Your Safe Havens
The U.S. dollar is no longer acting like the safe haven it used to be. With rising fiscal concerns and volatile trade policy, investors are shifting toward alternatives. Gold and the Swiss franc (CHF) have become more reliable options during risk-off moments. If uncertainty spikes, these assets may offer better protection than the dollar.
Focus on Sectors Sensitive to Policy
Tech stocks have been among the most affected. Tariff exemptions caused sharp rallies, while new restrictions triggered big drops. If you trade sectors like tech, consumer goods, or industrials, stay especially alert for trade-related headlines.
Bottom line: In 2025, geopolitics is moving markets more than ever. The old playbook needs updating. By staying flexible, tracking headlines, and turning to traditional safe havens like gold and CHF, traders can better navigate the noise—and find opportunity in the chaos.
WTI Oil Inverse Head & Shoulders looking for a 4H MA50 break-outWTI Oil (USOIL) has formed an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern, which is a technical bottom formation that signals the trend change to bullish.
So far the move is limited by the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) which has 2 rejections already and is keeping the bullish break-out from happening.
If the market closes a candle above the 4H MA50, we will have a bullish confirmation signal. Our Target will be the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at $69.00 and not higher, because the long-term trend is limited by the wider Lower Highs trend-line of January.
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USOIL Today's strategyCurrently, USOIL is fluctuating within a range without a clear directional bias. If it stably breaks through the range of $63 to $64, it is highly likely to continue rising. Conversely, if it fails to break through, it may trigger a decline towards the range of $59 to $57.
USOIL
sell@63-62
tp:60-59
I hope this strategy will be helpful to you.
When you find yourself in a difficult situation and at a loss in trading, don't face it alone. Please get in touch with me. I'm always ready to fight side by side with you, avoid risks, and embark on a new journey towards stable profits.
WTI CRUDE OIL: Channel Down bottomed. Buy opportunity.WTI Crude Oil is heavily bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 38.039, MACD = -2.310, ADX = 38.046) as it is trading inside a Channel Down for more than 1 year. Last week's low has made a technical LL at the bottom of the pattern and the current consolidation indicates that this may be an attempt to initiate the new bullish wave. The 1D RSI recovered from being oversold previously and this potentially hints to a rebound over the 1D MA200. The last bullish wave crossed above the 0.618 Fibonacci marginally. Trade: long, TP = 71.00.
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Choose to go short at high levels for crude oilThe price of crude oil is still fluctuating within a range and lacks clear directional momentum. The outlook remains bearish until it breaks through the $63.70 mark or there are clear factors stimulating demand. In the short term, the trend of oil prices is likely to remain confined to the current range. In terms of trading suggestions, it is advisable to mainly go short and go long as a supplement.
Oil trading strategy:
sell @ 61.90-62.10
sl 62.80
tp 61.20-61.00
If you approve of my analysis, you can give it a thumbs-up as support. If you have different opinions, you can leave your thoughts in the comments.
OPEC Cuts Oil Demand Forecast While Increasing SupplyOil prices are feeling bearish pressure. OPEC was unable to increase production significantly last year to stabilize prices. High interest rates have kept global economies cool enough. However, starting in May, OPEC will begin unwinding its voluntary production cuts. The timing of this decision is questionable. Tariffs are expected to hit global economies hard, while the Fed is likely to hold rates steady for a few more months. Recession risks in the world’s two largest economies, the U.S. and China are rising.
OPEC has acknowledged this trend by lowering its oil demand forecast for 2025 and 2026 by nearly 10%.
If summarized:
Oil demand is expected to fall 10%, possibly more if the U.S. and/or China enter recession.
Trump is expected to boost U.S. drilling, increasing supply.
OPEC will start to unwind supply cuts, increasing supply.
Brent is likely to remain under bearish pressure throughout the year because of rising supply and falling demand. As long as the current fundamental outlook remains unchanged, upward moves should be viewed as selling opportunities. A downtrend channel has formed since mid-2023, with the lower boundary recently tested. There is now an upward reaction. If this continues toward the 68.25–70.70 zone—previously a demand zone, now a potential supply zone—traders may look for short entry setups, provided this zone holds, with nearby stop-loss levels.
USOIL: Tech Clues for Next - Week MovesOn Friday, the crude oil market showed a slight rebound, and the daily line finally closed as a small positive line. From the perspective of the weekly line, a positive line doji pattern was formed. This series of price movements indicates that the price of crude oil seems to have shown a short - term stabilization signal. However, when looking at the overall market trend, the bearish forces still dominate.
In terms of technical analysis, on the 1 - hour chart, a golden cross has occurred, breaking through the resistance and leading to an upward movement. On the 2 - hour and 3 - hour charts, the price is supported by the MA38 moving average and is moving upward. Additionally, on the 4 - hour chart, a golden cross is about to form.
Based on this, in terms of trading strategies, it is recommended to adopt an approach that mainly focuses on shorting with occasional long positions as a supplement. Given the current market situation, one can first pay attention to the volatile rebound. In the short term, investors can consider taking appropriate long positions. It should be noted with particular emphasis that there is a strong resistance level in the range of 62.5 - 63.5 above. This area will pose a crucial constraint on the extent of the rebound in oil prices.
USOIL
buy@60.8-61.3
tp:62-62.5
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USOIL Today's strategyCurrently, USOIL is in a stage of a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Fundamentally, it is being pulled in two directions by geopolitical risks and weak demand, while technically, it shows a pattern of oscillating and converging. It is recommended to focus on range trading, pay close attention to the breakthrough situation of the resistance at $62 and the support at $57, and adjust the position flexibly.
USOIL
sell@62-63
tp:60-59
I hope this strategy will be helpful to you.
When you find yourself in a difficult situation and at a loss in trading, don't face it alone. Please get in touch with me. I'm always ready to fight side by side with you, avoid risks, and embark on a new journey towards stable profits.
USOIL D1 I Falling from the 61.8% Based on the D1 chart, the price is approaching our sell entry level at 65.24, a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8 Fibo retracement.
Our take profit is set at 58.08, a swing low support.
The stop loss is set at 70.39, a pullbac resistance.
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Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
WTI Oil D1 | Approaching a swing-high resistanceWTI oil (USOIL) could rise towards a swing-high resistance and potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 62.71 which is a swing-high resistance.
Stop loss is at 66.00 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 58.18 which is a swing-low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed higher on the daily chart. It held above 18,360 at the close, and today’s candle formed a golden cross as the MACD crossed above the Signal line, creating a potential buy signal. However, this signal will only be confirmed if the candle closes as a solid bullish bar, so it's too early to say that a buy confirmation has been established.
On the weekly chart, although the index has not yet reclaimed the 5-week MA, it has gapped above it. Overall, the index appears to be forming a box range between the 3-week and 10-week MAs, and if further upside occurs, we could potentially see a move toward the 60-week MA. However, since the MACD and Signal line on the weekly chart are still sloping downward, there's a high possibility of a medium-term pullback even if the index rallies to the 10-week MA.
On the daily chart, the index is still meeting resistance at the 20-day MA, and the key point now is whether the MACD completes the golden cross or turns downward again. Since the index has managed to hold above 18,360, the potential for a rebound remains open. Buying during pullbacks near the lower wick remains a favorable strategy.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD is turning upward after finding support at the Signal line, forming a potential third wave of buying. In short-term timeframes, buying on dips remains favorable.
This week, the Retail Sales data is scheduled for Wednesday, and the U.S. markets will be closed on Friday. Please keep that in mind for risk management.
Crude Oil
Crude oil closed higher in a narrow range on the daily chart. On the weekly chart, a long lower wick formed, finishing with a doji candle, suggesting indecision. Last week, oil was rejected at the 3-week MA, forming an upper wick. If it rallies this week, it could target the 5-week MA. The $65 level, near both the 5-week and 240-week MAs, remains a strong resistance zone, making it a potentially favorable area to consider short trades.
On the daily chart, oil has entered a box range between the 5-day and 10-day MAs. Though the MACD and Signal line still point downward, oil is currently holding within a supportive range. There is a possibility the MACD could begin to turn upward, so keeping both bullish and bearish scenarios open is advisable.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD is still rising after a golden cross but remains below the zero line, suggesting a potential for another pullback. Overall, monitor intraday movements and continue to trade within the range.
Gold
Gold closed higher, setting a new all-time high. The weekly chart formed a strong bullish candle, resuming its upward trend. Buying near the 3-week MA remains favorable. As the price has overshot the previous target of $3,216, we’ve now entered an overshooting zone, making it difficult to define the next resistance. Therefore, caution is advised for short positions, and it’s best to focus on buying the dips.
On the daily chart, the new all-time high generated a bullish signal, and buying near the 3-day MA is recommended. Gold may enter a sideways consolidation phase while aligning its moving averages. In that case, buying near the 5-day MA may also be considered, but avoid chasing the price higher.
The MACD has made another golden cross, and it’s important that the MACD doesn’t create a divergence by failing to surpass its previous peak. Avoid shorts, and stick with buy-the-dip strategies. On the 240-minute chart, buying momentum remains strong. The RSI is in overbought territory, so again, avoid shorting and focus only on buying during pullbacks.
Market Outlook
Compared to the last two weeks of high volatility, this week is expected to be more subdued. After a period of extreme moves, the market is likely to consolidate and seek direction. Rather than swinging for home runs, it's better to focus on small base hits and steadily build profits.
Wishing you a successful trading week!
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Strategic Analysis of Crude Oil for Next WeekBehind the current fluctuations in international oil prices lies the market's deep anxiety over the extreme uncertainty of global trade policies. Trump's "suspension + escalation" approach has, in the short term, stabilized relations with non - Chinese economies, but it has also dealt a blow to the global supply chain and energy consumption confidence.
In terms of the trading ideas for crude oil next week, it is recommended to mainly go short at high levels during rebounds and go long at low levels during pullbacks as a supplement. In the short term, pay attention to the resistance level in the range of 62.8 - 63.2. In the short term, focus on the support level in the range of 60.5 - 59.5.
Oil trading strategy:
sell @ 61.90-62.10
sl 62.80
tp 61.70-61.40
If you approve of my analysis, you can give it a thumbs-up as support. If you have different opinions, you can leave your thoughts in the comments.Thank you!
USOIL may continue to decline due to tariffsRestricted Economic Growth : The United States imposes tariffs, and other countries take countermeasures, intensifying global trade frictions and greatly increasing the risk of economic recession. NIESR predicts that if Trump imposes a 10% tariff on the world and a 60% tariff on China, the global GDP will shrink by 2% and the trade volume will decrease by 6% within five years 😕. The weak economy causes the demand for crude oil in various industries to decline, leading to a drop in the price of USOIL 📉.
Changes in Crude Oil Supply and Demand :
Demand Side: China imposes tariffs on U.S. crude oil, raising the import cost and reducing the import volume. The United States imposes tariffs on energy imports from Canada and Mexico, affecting the crude oil exports of these two countries to the U.S., reducing the demand for crude oil in the United States and putting pressure on the price of USOIL 😟.
Supply Side: After China reduces its imports of U.S. crude oil, it increases imports from other exporting countries, changing the global crude oil supply pattern and possibly strengthening the expectation of a supply surplus. The decrease in U.S. crude oil exports may lead to an increase in domestic inventory, exerting downward pressure on the price of USOIL 😣.
Influenced Market Sentiment :
The uncertainty of tariff policies and the escalation of trade frictions trigger market panic and speculation, intensifying the volatility of the crude oil market. Investors, being pessimistic, sell futures contracts, further driving down the price of USOIL 😨.
This upward movement has led to the clearing of many traders' accounts or significant losses 😫. You can follow my signals and gradually recover your losses and achieve profitability 🌟.
💰💰💰 USOIL💰💰💰
🎯 Sell@61.0 - 61.5
🎯 TP 59.0 - 58.0
Traders, if you're fond of this perspective or have your own insights regarding it, feel free to share in the comments. I'm really looking forward to reading your thoughts! 🤗
USOIL:Trading strategy for next weekThe recent trend of crude oil has been extremely volatile, and the market continues to digest the recent sharp decline. Trump's approach of "suspension plus intensification" has dealt a blow to the global supply chain and the confidence in energy consumption. In the short term, the bullish momentum is somewhat insufficient. The trend at the beginning of the week tends to be fluctuating downward, and it is mainly advisable to take short positions on the rebound following the trend.
Trading Strategy:
Sell@62-61
TP:58-56
The signals last week resulted in continuous profits, and accurate signals were shared daily.
USOIL BULLISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| LONG
USOIL SIGNAL
Trade Direction: long
Entry Level: 61.45
Target Level: 73.89
Stop Loss: 53.11
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1D
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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