Crude Oil WTI
Ichimoku Theories - Complicated? Keep it SimpleNYMEX:CL1!
The Ichimoku Strategy is a technical analysis method using the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator, which helps traders identify trends, support/resistance levels, and potential trade signals. It consists of five key components:
Ichimoku Indicator Components:
1. Tenkan-sen (Conversion Line): (9-period moving average)
• Short-term trend indicator.
• A sharp slope suggests strong momentum.
2. Kijun-sen (Base Line): (26-period moving average)
• Medium-term trend indicator.
• Acts as a support/resistance level.
3. Senkou Span A (Leading Span A): ((Tenkan-sen + Kijun-sen) / 2, plotted 26 periods ahead)
• Forms one edge of the Kumo (Cloud).
• A rising Span A suggests an uptrend.
4. Senkou Span B (Leading Span B): (52-period moving average, plotted 26 periods ahead)
• The second edge of the Kumo (Cloud).
• When Span A is above Span B, the cloud is bullish (green); when Span A is below Span B, it’s bearish (red).
5. Chikou Span (Lagging Span): (Closing price plotted 26 periods behind)
• Confirms trend direction.
• If Chikou Span is above past prices, it signals bullish momentum.
Trading Strategies Using Ichimoku
1. Kumo Breakout Strategy
• Buy when the price breaks above the Kumo (Cloud).
• Sell when the price breaks below the Kumo.
2. Tenkan-Kijun Cross Strategy
• Bullish signal: Tenkan-sen crosses above Kijun-sen.
• Bearish signal: Tenkan-sen crosses below Kijun-sen.
3. Chikou Span Confirmation
• Buy when Chikou Span is above past price action.
• Sell when Chikou Span is below past price action.
4. Kumo Twist
• When Senkou Span A crosses above Senkou Span B, it signals a potential bullish reversal.
• When Senkou Span A crosses below Senkou Span B, it suggests a bearish reversal.
5. Trend Confirmation
• Price above the cloud = bullish trend.
• Price inside the cloud = consolidation.
• Price below the cloud = bearish trend.
Advantages of Ichimoku Strategy
✅ Provides a comprehensive market view (trend, momentum, support/resistance).
✅ Works well in trending markets.
✅ Offers clear entry and exit signals.
Limitations
❌ Less effective in ranging or choppy markets.
❌ Can be complex for beginners.
❌ Requires confirmation with other indicators (e.g., RSI, MACD).
Trade Smart - Trade Safe 🚀
Weekly Market Forecast: CRUDE OIL Can Go Lower!This forecast is for the week of Feb 10-14th.
OIL is still trending to the downside, and sells are still valid.
Until we see a bullish market break of market structure, sells all day.
CPI Data news on Wednesday, so be careful trading into news day.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
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I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
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USOIL BULLS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|LONG
Hello, Friends!
We are going long on the USOIL with the target of 75.15 level, because the pair is oversold and will soon hit the support line below. We deduced the oversold condition from the price being near to the lower BB band. However, we should use low risk here because the 1W TF is red and gives us a counter-signal.
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The Market Matrix - DXY, Gold, NAS & Crude for Feb 7 2025This weeks edition of The Market Matrix. Covering Gold, DXY, Nasdaq & Crude Oil.
Crude Oil Outlook: Bearish Pattern, Triangle Formation, and Key Back in January, despite strong rise, crude oil has seen limited upside and fully reversed the path. This is partly due to the Trump administration’s goal of bringing crude oil prices lower, with plans to refill the US strategic reserves. In fact data from the Energy Information Administration, showing that production has been gradually increasing since summer of 2023, around the time energy prices hit a swing high near $95. Since then, crude oil has consistently formed lower swing highs.
So, if the Trump administration will really boost the oil production, it will likely put more downward pressure on energy prices and help ease inflation; the CPI y/y data, which is highly correlated with crude oil prices, could decline as well as shown on the weekly chart (but this will change if / when economy “booms”).
From an Elliott wave perspective, we are tracking an ongoing A-B-C-D-E triangle pattern, but wave E could still push prices a bit higher, for a rally in the next few weeks, because the pattern appears incomplete. But, once this triangle concludes, I expect a break to the downside. This would likely coincide with lower inflation expectations as mentioned; thus lower US yields, and a weaker US dollar.
Overall, my assumption is that crude oil will eventually break below $64 per barrel in 2025!
GH
WTI Oil H4 | Pullback resistance at 50% Fibonacci retracementWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 71.98 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 73.50 which is a level that sits above a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 69.58 which is a swing-low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
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Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
USoil is at right spot to go long !!!Level 70.50 going to be crucial
70-71 being the area which was long before a resistance on higher time frame now could be acting as support which has good probabililty along the way price also tapped into unmitigated demand zone which might be clearing the leftover supply that came from top
on the long side we can aim at the target of 74.50 which is almost 5%
and 77.50 which is 10%
so USOIL could be good bet for swing trade
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed slightly higher with low volatility. As mentioned yesterday, the daily chart shows that the index is holding support at the 3-day moving average, while the MACD remains in an upward buy trend. However, resistance is evident along the upper trendline connecting previous highs.
Today, a pullback toward the 5-day moving average should be considered, and the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report will be a key catalyst in determining whether the uptrend continues.
On the 240-minute chart, both the MACD and Signal line remain above the zero line, suggesting a consolidation phase that could gradually lift moving averages before another bullish wave emerges. Overall, a buy-on-dip approach remains favorable, particularly if a pre-market pullback toward the 5-day MA occurs. However, given the potential for increased volatility from today's data release, risk management is crucial.
Crude Oil
Crude oil closed lower after facing resistance at the 3-day moving average. However, downside support remains strong, making further declines difficult, which favors buy-side positioning. Since oil has now tested the 3-day MA, today’s strategy should focus on selling near the 5-day MA if a rally occurs.
Both long and short positions should factor in weekly closing dynamics, as weekend geopolitical risks may lead to gap openings on Monday.
On the 240-minute chart, oil remains in a downward trend, but signs of base formation are emerging. The MACD is nearing a potential golden cross, so traders should watch closely for a momentum shift.
Additionally, geopolitical risks are increasing, with Trump tightening sanctions on Iran, adding to oil market volatility. Given these conditions, buying dips remains the preferred approach, but risk management is essential.
Gold
Gold closed lower, facing a sharp pullback after reaching the psychological level of 2900. The deep retracement suggests profit-taking at key resistance levels.
Despite this correction, the daily chart still maintains a buy trend, and as long as gold holds above the 10-day moving average on a closing basis, the overall bullish bias remains intact. However, given that the MACD is completing its third bullish wave, a consolidation phase is likely as the MACD and Signal line begin to narrow. For now, buyers should focus on entering at lower levels to optimize risk-reward.
On the 240-minute chart, a sell signal has emerged, leading to the current pullback. However, the MACD and Signal line are significantly below the zero line, meaning that despite the downtrend, buying interest could emerge on any further dips. This structure reduces the appeal of chasing short positions.
Today's Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report is a major risk event, known for triggering extreme volatility in gold. As one of the most critical economic indicators for gold traders, managing exposure ahead of the release is crucial. Expect range-bound price action before the report, with a potential breakout afterward.
Stay disciplined and manage risk carefully, as today’s NFP release will drive market volatility. Wishing you a successful trading day! 🚀
■Trading Strategies for Today
Nasdaq - Bullish Market
-Buy Levels: 21820 / 21750 / 21710 / 21625 / 21510
-Sell Levels: 21870 / 21930 / 22010 / 22070 / 22135
Crude Oil - Range-bound Market
-Buy Levels: 70.20 / 69.80 / 69.20 / 68.30
-Sell Levels: 71.30 / 71.80 / 72.20 / 72.70
GOLD - Bullish Market
-Buy Levels: 2876 / 2871 / 2862 / 2855
-Sell Levels: 2885 / 2892 / 2896 / 2902
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
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USOIL- one n single support, make it or break it scnerios#USOIL... market just reached at his one of the most important supporting area that is around
69.90 -70.10
And that will play key role in next move.
Keep close that region and don't hold your buying positions below that region.
Stay sharp.
Good luck
Trade wisely
USOIL Breaks Key Support: Targeting 70.50TVC:USOIL has broken a key support zone and retested it, confirming strong bearish momentum with clear rejection candles. The previous support has now flipped to resistance, further reinforcing the likelihood of continued downside movement.
With this rejection confirmed, I anticipate a move downward toward the 70.50 level, aligning with the prevailing bearish trend. This setup suggests a high probability of bearish continuation in the near term.
If you have anything to add or a different perspective, I’d love to hear from you in the comments!
WTI OIL 4H RSI Bullish Divergence hinting to trend reversal.WTI Oil (USOIL) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the January 15 High. Since yesterday it appears for the first time to have withdrawn from making Lower Lows. In fact, the 4H RSI has been on Higher Lows since January 27, which is a technical Bullish Divergence.
This hints to a potential trend reversal to bullish and the pattern that we can identify emerging is a Channel Up. This current potential bottoming pattern, resembles the January 08 Low which rallied above its 2.5 Fibonacci extension.
As a result, we can target the Channel's top (Higher Highs trend-line) at 76.50.
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USOIL Is Going Up! Buy!
Please, check our technical outlook for USOIL.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 72.211.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 74.793 level soon.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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WTI Oil H1 | Pullback resistance at 38.2% Fibonacci retracementWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 71.75 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 72.30 which is a level that sits above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement and an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 70.64 which is a swing-low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
USOIL LONG FROM SUPPORT
Hello, Friends!
We are going long on the USOIL with the target of 75.80 level, because the pair is oversold and will soon hit the support line below. We deduced the oversold condition from the price being near to the lower BB band. However, we should use low risk here because the 1W TF is red and gives us a counter-signal.
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Crude OIL $UKOIL Classic patternI've seen this pattern many times over the last 5 years on different instruments, and its working out to over 50%
The essence of this pattern is a classic triangle with horizontal support, most of the participants realize that we will break down, but not everyone believes that we will take liquidity off the top before going down.
An instrument like oil is quite trivial and it can fall without taking liquidity off the top.
But I want to share a few examples of my theory working out, where the upper resistance line is broken before the drop-down
Best regards EXCAVO
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNASDAQ
The Nasdaq broke out of its consolidation range and closed higher. On the daily chart, the index had been moving within a box range, with MACD and the Signal line flattening. However, following the breakout, the MACD has resumed its upward trajectory, signaling a continuation of the bullish trend.
With a strong breakout candle in play, the market is likely to maintain a short-term buying trend, centered around the 3-day moving average. While tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report presents potential volatility risks, the overall daily uptrend remains intact.
On the 240-minute chart, both the MACD and Signal line have crossed above the zero line, entering bullish territory. While further upside is possible, imbalanced order flow suggests we may see mixed price action, with alternating bullish and bearish candles.
Given the current setup, buying on pullbacks remains the most favorable approach for today.
CRUDE OIL
Oil declined following the crude inventory report. On the daily chart, the price failed to reclaim the 10-day moving average, and the MACD-Signal line spread remains wide, indicating a lack of immediate convergence.
A strong bearish breakout candle has formed, making short positions near the 3-day moving average a preferable strategy for today. However, the $70 level has established itself as a key support zone, meaning that buying opportunities may emerge in this area.
Price action suggests range-bound movement, and for additional downside to materialize, the daily Signal line needs to drop below the zero line. As it remains above zero, a short-term MACD-Signal convergence attempt is likely in the near term, though a direct breakout seems unlikely due to the current wide spread.
On the 240-minute chart, a sell signal has reappeared, driving continued downside pressure. However, if prices avoid a sharp decline, a bullish divergence could form, making chasing shorts at this stage risky.
Additionally, mixed catalysts, including Iran sanctions and increased U.S. oil drilling activity, are creating conflicting momentum, increasing the likelihood of sharp price swings. Stop-loss management is crucial in this environment.
GOLD
Gold closed higher but formed an upper wick, signaling profit-taking at recent highs. On the daily chart, gold broke above $2,900, demonstrating a strong, one-way buying trend.
However, given the sharp rally, this is a high-risk zone for chasing longs, as profit-taking pressure is likely to increase. Since gold has been moving in a stair-step pattern, the best approach is to buy on pullbacks at well-defined support and resistance levels.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD is in its third-wave buy phase, maintaining the bullish momentum. Once this third wave completes and the MACD crosses below the Signal line (a death cross), gold may enter a consolidation phase or a corrective move, leading to sideways price action.
Tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report is expected to significantly impact gold, increasing the likelihood of a deeper correction.
The optimal approach remains buying on dips, but near $2,900, short positions for range-bound trading should also be considered.
■Trading Strategies for Today
Nasdaq - Bullish Market
-Buy Levels: 21710 / 21675 / 21620 / 21570 / 21510
-Sell Levels: 21895 / 21935 / 21970 / 22010
Crude Oil - Range-bound Market
-Buy Levels: 70.90 / 70.30 / 69.80 / 69.30
-Sell Levels: 71.65 / 72.10 / 72.60 / 73.20
GOLD - Bullish Market
-Buy Levels: 2881 / 2875 / 2870 / 2864 / 2859
-Sell Levels: 2896 / 2902 / 2909
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
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Possible Crude Down to $30/BarrelSince the covid oil bull market we've yet to have a breakdown as supply catches back up with equilibrium. I would expect at some point we get a price back down to $30. First major support would potentially be $52.
WTI selloff stalls around cluster of big levelsWTI crude has seen a 11% correction from its January high, and 11 of the past 13 days since the high have been down days. But there is a glimmer of hope for bulls as prices are holding above several key levels of support, just above the $70 handle.
Tuesday's bullish pinbar held above respected the 200-day EMA and 50% retracement levels, while respecting the 200 and 50-day EMAs. It also saw a minor (and ultimately false) break of the $71 handle and November high.
While Wednesday was a down day, it was also an inside day. And this suggests a hesitancy to break immediately lower with demand around $71.
This may be on the scrappy side, but bulls could consider longs around the current lows and seek a rebound to either Wednesday's high, just beneath the $73. Though a higher target could be considered should a fundamentally bullish catalyst arrive.
The bias remains bullish above $70, but $70.49 could also be used to improve the reward-to-risk ratio.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index
WTI CRUDE OIL: Rebound to 75.50 very probable.WTI Crude Oil is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 40.837, MACD = 0.030, ADX = 37.618) which is natural as it's trading inside a Channel Down. The pattern formed a 4H Death Cross yesterday and even though it's technically bearish, the last time it was formed (October 24th 2024), it marked a bottom 4 days later. The bottom was formed on a HL trendline and if it gets repeated, we should see a HL rebound soon. As with November's rebound, we will be targeting the 0.5 Fibonacci level (TP = 75.50).
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Crude oil remains on a bearish pathOil prices have fallen noticeably since Trump’s last minute deal to delay tariffs. Yesterday’s rebound on Trump's "maximum pressure" plan for Iran has proven to be short-lived. The negative effect of a US-China trade war on demand, as well as rising global supplies, is what is holding back prices. Even if Trump hadn’t delayed tariffs on Mexico and Canada, when considering both supply and demand factors, the overall impact on crude oil prices may well have been limited anyway. In any event, oil prices extended their losses after the OPEC+ agreed to stick to its policy and raise output gradually from April. Prices have fallen further today on the back of the latest inventories report from the US. A big 8.7 million barrel build was reported, which surprised the market given only a 2.4m build was expected. Against a backdrop of rising OPEC+ supply and the potential for increased non-OPEC supply growth, mainly in the US, the crude oil forecast remains modestly bearish.
From a technical perspective, crude oil remains in a modest downtrend, with WTI consistently forming lower highs since September 2023. A brief breakout above this trend in January met strong resistance just below $80, pushing prices back under the trend line by month-end. With the bearish bias reaffirmed and WTI slipping below the 200-day moving average again, downside risks remain dominant.
In terms of support, the area between $70.00 to $70.70 marks a key battle ground. This is where the price of oil last staged a rally from at the back end of last year. If we see a bounce here, I will then look for that bounce to fade as prices come up to test some key resistance levels…
Key resistance levels to watch include the recently broken support at $72.50, the 200-day average at $74.30 and the psychologically significant $75.00 mark. The bearish trend line hovers around $76.00.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Oil Long - Capitulate First, Rise LaterMajority is long so give your SL some space while waiting for moon.
