WTI Oil H1 | Pullback resistance at 38.2% Fibonacci retracementWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 71.75 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 72.30 which is a level that sits above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement and an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 70.64 which is a swing-low support.
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Crude Oil WTI
USOIL LONG FROM SUPPORT
Hello, Friends!
We are going long on the USOIL with the target of 75.80 level, because the pair is oversold and will soon hit the support line below. We deduced the oversold condition from the price being near to the lower BB band. However, we should use low risk here because the 1W TF is red and gives us a counter-signal.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Crude OIL $UKOIL Classic patternI've seen this pattern many times over the last 5 years on different instruments, and its working out to over 50%
The essence of this pattern is a classic triangle with horizontal support, most of the participants realize that we will break down, but not everyone believes that we will take liquidity off the top before going down.
An instrument like oil is quite trivial and it can fall without taking liquidity off the top.
But I want to share a few examples of my theory working out, where the upper resistance line is broken before the drop-down
Best regards EXCAVO
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNASDAQ
The Nasdaq broke out of its consolidation range and closed higher. On the daily chart, the index had been moving within a box range, with MACD and the Signal line flattening. However, following the breakout, the MACD has resumed its upward trajectory, signaling a continuation of the bullish trend.
With a strong breakout candle in play, the market is likely to maintain a short-term buying trend, centered around the 3-day moving average. While tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report presents potential volatility risks, the overall daily uptrend remains intact.
On the 240-minute chart, both the MACD and Signal line have crossed above the zero line, entering bullish territory. While further upside is possible, imbalanced order flow suggests we may see mixed price action, with alternating bullish and bearish candles.
Given the current setup, buying on pullbacks remains the most favorable approach for today.
CRUDE OIL
Oil declined following the crude inventory report. On the daily chart, the price failed to reclaim the 10-day moving average, and the MACD-Signal line spread remains wide, indicating a lack of immediate convergence.
A strong bearish breakout candle has formed, making short positions near the 3-day moving average a preferable strategy for today. However, the $70 level has established itself as a key support zone, meaning that buying opportunities may emerge in this area.
Price action suggests range-bound movement, and for additional downside to materialize, the daily Signal line needs to drop below the zero line. As it remains above zero, a short-term MACD-Signal convergence attempt is likely in the near term, though a direct breakout seems unlikely due to the current wide spread.
On the 240-minute chart, a sell signal has reappeared, driving continued downside pressure. However, if prices avoid a sharp decline, a bullish divergence could form, making chasing shorts at this stage risky.
Additionally, mixed catalysts, including Iran sanctions and increased U.S. oil drilling activity, are creating conflicting momentum, increasing the likelihood of sharp price swings. Stop-loss management is crucial in this environment.
GOLD
Gold closed higher but formed an upper wick, signaling profit-taking at recent highs. On the daily chart, gold broke above $2,900, demonstrating a strong, one-way buying trend.
However, given the sharp rally, this is a high-risk zone for chasing longs, as profit-taking pressure is likely to increase. Since gold has been moving in a stair-step pattern, the best approach is to buy on pullbacks at well-defined support and resistance levels.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD is in its third-wave buy phase, maintaining the bullish momentum. Once this third wave completes and the MACD crosses below the Signal line (a death cross), gold may enter a consolidation phase or a corrective move, leading to sideways price action.
Tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report is expected to significantly impact gold, increasing the likelihood of a deeper correction.
The optimal approach remains buying on dips, but near $2,900, short positions for range-bound trading should also be considered.
■Trading Strategies for Today
Nasdaq - Bullish Market
-Buy Levels: 21710 / 21675 / 21620 / 21570 / 21510
-Sell Levels: 21895 / 21935 / 21970 / 22010
Crude Oil - Range-bound Market
-Buy Levels: 70.90 / 70.30 / 69.80 / 69.30
-Sell Levels: 71.65 / 72.10 / 72.60 / 73.20
GOLD - Bullish Market
-Buy Levels: 2881 / 2875 / 2870 / 2864 / 2859
-Sell Levels: 2896 / 2902 / 2909
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
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WTI selloff stalls around cluster of big levelsWTI crude has seen a 11% correction from its January high, and 11 of the past 13 days since the high have been down days. But there is a glimmer of hope for bulls as prices are holding above several key levels of support, just above the $70 handle.
Tuesday's bullish pinbar held above respected the 200-day EMA and 50% retracement levels, while respecting the 200 and 50-day EMAs. It also saw a minor (and ultimately false) break of the $71 handle and November high.
While Wednesday was a down day, it was also an inside day. And this suggests a hesitancy to break immediately lower with demand around $71.
This may be on the scrappy side, but bulls could consider longs around the current lows and seek a rebound to either Wednesday's high, just beneath the $73. Though a higher target could be considered should a fundamentally bullish catalyst arrive.
The bias remains bullish above $70, but $70.49 could also be used to improve the reward-to-risk ratio.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index
WTI CRUDE OIL: Rebound to 75.50 very probable.WTI Crude Oil is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 40.837, MACD = 0.030, ADX = 37.618) which is natural as it's trading inside a Channel Down. The pattern formed a 4H Death Cross yesterday and even though it's technically bearish, the last time it was formed (October 24th 2024), it marked a bottom 4 days later. The bottom was formed on a HL trendline and if it gets repeated, we should see a HL rebound soon. As with November's rebound, we will be targeting the 0.5 Fibonacci level (TP = 75.50).
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Crude oil remains on a bearish pathOil prices have fallen noticeably since Trump’s last minute deal to delay tariffs. Yesterday’s rebound on Trump's "maximum pressure" plan for Iran has proven to be short-lived. The negative effect of a US-China trade war on demand, as well as rising global supplies, is what is holding back prices. Even if Trump hadn’t delayed tariffs on Mexico and Canada, when considering both supply and demand factors, the overall impact on crude oil prices may well have been limited anyway. In any event, oil prices extended their losses after the OPEC+ agreed to stick to its policy and raise output gradually from April. Prices have fallen further today on the back of the latest inventories report from the US. A big 8.7 million barrel build was reported, which surprised the market given only a 2.4m build was expected. Against a backdrop of rising OPEC+ supply and the potential for increased non-OPEC supply growth, mainly in the US, the crude oil forecast remains modestly bearish.
From a technical perspective, crude oil remains in a modest downtrend, with WTI consistently forming lower highs since September 2023. A brief breakout above this trend in January met strong resistance just below $80, pushing prices back under the trend line by month-end. With the bearish bias reaffirmed and WTI slipping below the 200-day moving average again, downside risks remain dominant.
In terms of support, the area between $70.00 to $70.70 marks a key battle ground. This is where the price of oil last staged a rally from at the back end of last year. If we see a bounce here, I will then look for that bounce to fade as prices come up to test some key resistance levels…
Key resistance levels to watch include the recently broken support at $72.50, the 200-day average at $74.30 and the psychologically significant $75.00 mark. The bearish trend line hovers around $76.00.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
WTI Crude Oil: Navigating Current Dynamics Near $72.00As I write this, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is hovering around $71.90. Despite ongoing concerns about a US-China trade war, the market is largely dismissing this risk, focusing instead on supply worries stemming from Iran.
President Trump's administration has reinstated its "maximum pressure" campaign, aiming to cut Iran’s oil exports to zero, which heightens global supply concerns. This geopolitical landscape has significant implications, suggesting a potential tightening of global oil supply that could lead to price increases.
From a technical standpoint, retail sentiment is bearish. However, examining historical data reveals a pattern of price recovery following downturns. Given current market dynamics, there’s a strong case for a bullish reversal. A pullback to around $78 seems feasible, as demand may soon outstrip supply due to lingering geopolitical tensions and economic recovery.
In summary, while bearish thoughts prevail, the foundations are in place for an upward shift in WTI prices. As developments in Iran and broader economic indicators unfold, traders and investors should remain alert to the potential for a rebound.
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Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNASDAQ
The Nasdaq initially declined in pre-market trading due to escalating tariff tensions between China and the U.S. but ultimately closed higher. A sell signal appeared on the daily chart but was reversed into a buy signal with yesterday’s bullish candle.
This suggests that the market is still moving within a large box range, with moving averages converging. This consolidation phase indicates that a trend expansion phase—marked by a strong bullish or bearish breakout—may emerge soon. Until then, it is best to trade within the range.
On the 240-minute chart, the market has been making stepwise upward movements, with the MACD forming a golden cross over the Signal line. Despite a strong price surge due to divergence, the index has entered a resistance-heavy zone, and liquidity is currently tight, which could lead to frequent sharp fluctuations.
For now, the best strategy is selling near the upper boundary of the range and buying near the lower boundary. Given the ongoing trade tensions under Trump's tariff policies, risk management is crucial—placing stop-loss orders is highly recommended to protect against increased volatility.
OIL
Oil gapped down but found strong support around the $70 level, closing with a bullish candle. News of the U.S. tightening sanctions on Iran initially sent prices down by 3%, but a sharp rebound followed.
While the daily chart still shows a sell signal, the $70 price area has historically provided strong support, as previously emphasized. Thus, the overall strategy should be buying on pullbacks rather than chasing sell positions.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD continues to create bullish divergence, forming a buy signal. This increases the likelihood of further upside movement. However, since the MACD and Signal lines are still below the zero line, further price increases are needed to widen the gap between these indicators and confirm bullish momentum.
Overall, buying on pullbacks remains the preferred strategy, but traders should be cautious of potential volatility spikes due to today’s Crude Oil Inventories report.
GOLD
Gold closed higher, finding support at the 5-day moving average. On the daily chart, as long as the 10-day moving average holds, gold should be viewed from a bullish perspective.
The MACD on the daily chart is trending sharply upward, so until a MACD-Signal line death cross occurs, buying on pullbacks remains the best strategy. Similarly, on the 240-minute chart, the MACD has repeatedly formed golden crosses, reinforcing a strong one-way bullish trend.
From a flow of funds perspective, buying pressure remains strong, so buying dips continues to be the most favorable approach. However, traders should be aware of potential high volatility due to the upcoming ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report today and the Non-Farm Payroll report on Friday. Given gold's recent sharp rally, a major inflection point could emerge, using economic data as a catalyst.
The current market environment is characterized by high volatility and rapid price movements, increasing the likelihood of sudden price swings leading to stop-outs. However, if stop-losses are properly managed, losses can be quickly recovered.
In a highly volatile market, profit opportunities increase, so maintaining strict stop-loss discipline while seeking the next trade opportunity is key to successful trading.
Wishing you a successful trading day! 🚀
■Trading Strategies for Today
Nasdaq - Range-bound Market
-Buy Levels: 21500 / 21425 / 21340 / 21250
-Sell Levels: 21665 / 21735 / 21830 / 21930
Crude Oil - Range-bound Market
-Buy Levels: 72.20 / 71.60 / 70.90
-Sell Levels: 73.20 / 73.80 / 74.50
GOLD - Bullish Market
-Buy Levels: 2864 / 2859 / 2850 / 2845
-Sell Levels: 2876 / 2881 / 2889
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
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Oil Prices Surge as U.S. Targets Iran's ExportsWTI crude oil, under pressure for the past couple of weeks pops higher after running sell stops below $72. The rebound being supported by news the US secretary of state will modify or rescind existing sanctions waivers and cooperate with Treasury to implement a campaign "aimed at driving Iran's oil exports to zero"
CL - Crude Oil is approaching the Center-Line SupportAs mentioned in the previous analysis, we see that CL pushed back and comes right to where we expect it to go, down to the Center-Line.
Our job here is to observe how it reacts in here. Support at the Center-Line, or a blow through, or swinging around it?
Patience is key, and the observation time is very valuable, because we can learn from it and feed our stats.
Patience young Padavan, patience. §8-)
Market Forecast UPDATES! Tuesday, Feb 4thIn this video, we will update the forecasts for the following markets:
ES \ S&P 500
NQ | NASDAQ 100
YM | Dow Jones 30
GC |Gold
SiI | Silver
PL | Platinum
HG | Copper
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNASDAQ
The Nasdaq closed lower, forming a lower wick at the bottom. The market initially dropped in pre-market trading due to Trump’s tariff imposition issue but recovered to close the gap after the one-month grace period for Mexico was announced.
At yesterday’s closing price, the daily MACD triggered a sell signal. Although there was a gap-up today, further declines are likely as the resistance level holds. However, the MACD and Signal lines are still above the zero line on the daily chart, and it will take time for the 3-day and 5-day moving averages to pull down, suggesting that the index may form a wide-ranging box pattern before the trend leans towards further declines.
On the 240-minute chart, a sell signal appeared, and after a rebound, the MACD and Signal lines are reconnecting. Since a golden cross has not yet formed, a sell strategy on rebounds would be favorable. If the MACD fails to break above the Signal line and declines, a third wave of selling could follow.
From a broader perspective, the 5-day moving average on the monthly chart coincides with the lower boundary of the daily box pattern. Until this level is strongly broken downward, short-term buy opportunities remain valid near the lower boundary of the range.
OIL
Oil gapped up but closed lower. The price failed to break above $75, leaving an upper wick. The one-month tariff grace period for Canada resulted in a gap-down movement.
The key question is whether oil will attempt another rebound, using the 240-day moving average as support. It is crucial to see if a bullish candlestick forms while maintaining support above the 240-day moving average.
On the weekly chart, oil is trapped within a box range, and as the week progresses, it will be important to assess whether conditions develop for a breakout next week.
On the 240-minute chart, a rebound has occurred up to the 60-day moving average, following the characteristics of the 240-day moving average. Since the MACD and Signal lines remain below zero, selling pressure may persist. However, this is a high-probability divergence zone. If the third wave of selling fails and prices rebound, a sharp surge is possible, so traders should be cautious with aggressive short positions.
The overall approach should be to trade within the range, favoring buy positions on pullbacks.
GOLD
Gold dropped to the 10-day moving average but found support and closed higher. On the monthly chart, a pullback to the 3-day moving average around 2,770 is possible, and a correction to the low 2,800s has already occurred.
Gold's volatility is extreme due to tariff issues, so traders must carefully adjust their leverage to ensure safe trading.
On the daily chart, MACD continues to rise, so as long as the price does not close below the 10-day moving average, a buy strategy is recommended.
On the 240-minute chart, gold formed a buy signal after a pullback and is attempting a third wave of buying. However, it is crucial that gold continues rising to avoid forming a bearish divergence. If further gains do not materialize, gold may enter a box pattern.
Overall, a buy strategy remains favorable for gold. However, traders should be cautious of increased volatility due to today’s JOLTS report.
■Trading Strategies for Today
Nasdaq - Range-bound Market
-Buy Levels: 21510 / 21410 / 21345 / 21220 / 21120
-Sell Levels: 21580 / 21640 / 21680 / 21780
Crude Oil - Range-bound Market
-Buy Levels: 71.80 / 71.30 / 70.50 / 69.85
-Sell Levels: 72.75 / 73.15 / 73.80 / 74.50
GOLD - Bullish Market
-Buy Levels: 2844 / 2832 / 2827 / 2820
-Sell Levels: 2859 / 2864 / 2870 / 2874 / 2885
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
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WTI CRUDE OIL Sell signal under the 1day MA50WTI Crude Oil / USOIL has tested and held the 1day MA50 for two straight days.
Today's volatile candle though suggests that one more test is possible and the last time we saw this pattern was in late April 2024.
The two patterns have similar 1day RSI fractals, so the sell trigger here is the 1day MA50.
If we cross under it, sell and target Support B at 69.00.
Previous chart:
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"WTI / US OIL SPOT" Energy Market Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the "WTI / USOIL SPOT" Energy market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 :
"The loot's within reach! Wait for the breakout, then grab your share - whether you're a Bullish thief or a Bearish bandit!"
Buy entry above 76.00
Sell Entry below 72.00
Stop Loss 🛑:
Thief SL placed at 74.00 (swing Trade) for Bullish Trade
Thief SL placed at 74.00 (swing Trade) for Bearish Trade
Using the 4H period, the recent / nearest low or high level.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many orders you have to take.
Target 🎯:
-Bullish Robbers TP 81.50 (or) Escape Before the Target
-Bearish Robbers TP 67.00 (or) Escape Before the Target
Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook:
"WTI / USOIL SPOT" Energy market is currently experiencing a Neutral trend (there is a higher chance for Bearish)., driven by several key factors.
♻ Fundamental Analysis:
Supply and Demand: Neutral, with growing demand for oil offset by rising US oil production.
OPEC Production: Neutral, with OPEC's production cuts offset by rising US oil production.
Global Economic Growth: Neutral, with a slow global economic recovery expected.
♻ Macro Economics:
Global Economic Growth: Neutral, with a slow global economic recovery expected.
Inflation: Neutral, with low inflation expected in major economies.
Interest Rates: Neutral, with interest rates expected to remain stable.
♻ COT Report:
Non-Commercial Traders: Bearish, with 55% of non-commercial traders holding short positions.
Commercial Traders: Bullish, with 60% of commercial traders holding long positions.
Levieraged Funds: Bearish, with 58% of leveraged funds holding short positions.
♻ Sentimental Analysis:
Market Sentiment: Bearish, with 52% of traders holding short positions.
Retail Trader Sentiment: Bullish, with 65% of retail traders holding long positions.
Institutional Trader Sentiment: Bearish, with 60% of institutional traders holding short positions.
♻ Overall Outlook:
Bearish: 52%
Bullish: 30%
Neutral: 18%
Based on the overall analysis, the outlook for WTI Commodity CFD is bearish, with a target price of around $60-$62 per barrel.
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
📌Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions.
📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀
I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤗
Leap Ahead with a Regression Breakout on Crude OilThe Leap Trading Competition: Your Chance to Shine
TradingView’s “The Leap” Trading Competition presents a unique opportunity for traders to put their futures trading skills to the test. This competition allows participants to trade select CME Group futures contracts, including Crude Oil (CL) and Micro Crude Oil (MCL), giving traders access to one of the most actively traded commodities in the world.
Register and compete in "The Leap" here: TradingView Competition Registration .
This article breaks down a structured trade idea using linear regression breakouts, Fibonacci retracements, and UnFilled Orders (UFOs) to identify a long setup in Crude Oil Futures. Hopefully, this structured approach aligns with the competition’s requirements and gives traders a strong trade plan to consider. Best of luck to all participants.
Spotting the Opportunity: A Regression Breakout in CL Futures
Trend reversals often present strong trading opportunities. One way to detect these shifts is by analyzing linear regression channels—a statistical tool that identifies the general price trend over a set period.
In this case, a 4-hour CL chart shows that price has violated the upper boundary of a downward-sloping regression channel, suggesting the potential start of an uptrend. When such a breakout aligns with key Fibonacci retracement levels and existing UnFilled Orders (UFOs), traders may gain a potential extra edge in executing a structured trade plan.
The Trade Setup: Combining Fibonacci and a Regression Channel
This trade plan incorporates multiple factors to define an entry, stop loss, and target:
o Entry Zone:
An entry or pullback to the 50%-61.8% Fibonacci retracement area, between 74.60 and 73.14, provides a reasonable long entry.
o Stop Loss:
Placed below 73.14 to ensure a minimum 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio.
o Profit-Taking Strategy:
First target at 76.05 (38.2% Fibonacci level)
Second target at 77.86 (23.6% Fibonacci level)
Final target at 78.71, aligning with a key UFO resistance level
This approach locks in profits along the way while allowing traders to capitalize on an extended move toward the final resistance zone.
Contract Specifications and Margin Considerations
Understanding contract specifications and margin requirements is essential when trading futures. Below are the key details for CL and MCL:
o Crude Oil Futures (CL) Contract Details
Full contract specs: CL Contract Specifications – CME Group
Tick size: 0.01 per barrel ($10 per tick)
Margin requirements vary based on market conditions and broker requirements. Currently set around $5,800.
o Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures (MCL) Contract Details
Full contract specs: MCL Contract Specifications – CME Group
Tick size: 0.01 per barrel ($1 per tick)
Lower margin requirements for more flexible risk control. Currently set around $580.
Choosing between CL and MCL depends on risk tolerance and account size. MCL provides more flexibility for smaller accounts, while CL offers higher liquidity and contract value.
Execution and Market Conditions
To maximize trade efficiency, conservative traders could wait for a proper price action into the entry zone and confirm the setup using momentum indicators and/or volume trends.
Key Considerations Before Entering
Ensure price reaches the 50%-61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone before executing the trade
Look for confirmation signals such as increased volume, candlestick formations, or additional support zones
Be patient—forcing a trade without confirmation increases risk exposure
Final Thoughts
This Crude Oil Futures trade setup integrates multiple confluences—a regression breakout, Fibonacci retracements, and UFO resistance—to create a structured trade plan with defined risk management.
For traders participating in The Leap Trading Competition, this approach emphasizes disciplined execution, dynamic risk management, and a structured scaling-out strategy, all essential components for long-term success.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.