BRIEFING Week #1 : Recession in 2025 ?Here's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users.
Kindly,
Phil
Crude Oil WTI
Possible strong trend change in oilOil is at a critical chart crossroads with the Light Crude Oil contract flirting with an upward break of the strong long-term downtrend line “K” that has been passing through the $73 area in the last two sessions. On Friday morning when the article was written, the contract was trading at $72.90.
A possible now confirmed upward break of this line will make it difficult for the contract’s sellers as it will have the power to open the way to $76. Above that, the price of $80 per barrel will “flash”.
On the other hand, however, the apparent inability of oil to pass above $73 and the “K” will mark a third consecutive exhaustion peak, pushing the contract back below $69.
It is of course best not to attempt to push oil prices above $76 because it will begin to "undo" the positive scenario of further weakening inflation.
USOIL PredictionWelcome to our trading analysis! It’s great to see dedicated traders like you pursuing success with focus and determination. Trading is not just about profits—it’s about learning, adapting, and growing with every market movement. Today, we’re analyzing USOIL, which is currently trading at $74, with a bullish target of $100. The market is forming a falling wedge pattern, a classic bullish setup signaling a potential upward breakout. Before the price reaches the target, it needs to confirm a breakout from this wedge, which will mark the beginning of a strong rally. This pattern indicates a high reward-to-risk opportunity for traders who patiently wait for the breakout confirmation. Watch for strong volume and momentum during the breakout phase, as these are critical indicators of strength. Stay focused, trust your analysis, and remember that consistency and discipline are the keys to long-term trading success.
Weekly Market Forecast Jan 6, 2025This is an outlook for the week of Jan 6-10th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
ES \ S&P 500
NQ | NASDAQ 100
YM | Dow Jones 30
GC |Gold
SiI | Silver
PL | Platinum
HG | Copper
The indices look set to move higher, with the possible exception of the DOW.
The metals will underperform against a strong USD, which remains so in the near term.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
WTI - 2025 Q1 Forecast - Technical Analysis & Trading Ideas!💡 Midterm forecast: (Daily Time-frame)
While the price is above the support 64.00, resumption of uptrend is expected.
Technical analysis:
A trough is formed in daily chart at 66.51 on 11/18/2024, so more gains to resistance(s) 75.44 and maximum to Major Resistance (77.92) is expected.
Take Profits:
68.80
72.27
75.44
77.92
80.10
83.96
87.00
93.80
100.80
109.19
126.35
💡 Short Term forecast: (H4 Time-frame):
The bullish wave is expected to continue as long as the price is above the strong Support at 70.53
Forecast:
1- Correction wave toward the Buy Zone
2- Another Upward Impulse wave toward Higher TPs
SL: Below 70.53
__________________________________________________________________
❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView,
. . . . . Please show your support back,
. . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 BOOST button,
. . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment!
🙏 Your Support is appreciated!
Let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast.
Have a successful week,
ForecastCity Support Team
Crude Oil (WTI) Bullish Breakout – Eyes on $78.47!🚀 Crude Oil (WTI) Bullish Breakout – Eyes on $78.47! 🚀
📊 Trade Setup:
Entry Price: $73.12
Take Profit 1: $73.99
Take Profit 2: $76.20
Take Profit 3: $78.47
Stop Loss: $71.21 (below key support zone)
📈 Analysis:
After months of trading in a range, WTI Crude Oil has broken above the upper boundary of the channel , signaling a bullish breakout. This breakout is supported by:
1️⃣ China's Economic Optimism: Growth pledges and potential stimulus are boosting demand expectations.
2️⃣ Technical Momentum: Key resistance at $71.50 and $74 has been breached, opening the path toward higher targets.
3️⃣ Tight Weekly Chart Range: A big move was anticipated, and the bulls delivered!
🎯 Targets:
With momentum on our side, we’re targeting:
$73.99: Quick resistance retest.
$76.20: Alignment with prior highs.
$78.47: Major resistance and breakout zone.
🔹 Risk Management:
Stop loss at $71.21, well below the key support zone, ensures controlled risk in case of reversal.
⚡ Are you riding the breakout, or watching from the sidelines? Let me know your thoughts below! ⚡
Oil Bulls Go for the Break into Yearly OpenOil prices are threatening a major breakout here after clearing resistance yesterday at the objective 2024 yearly open near 72.14 .
The focus is on todays close with respect to the 61.8% retracement at 73.90 . A daily close above would keep the focus on a possible rally towrads the 78.6% retracement at 75.89 and the October high-close at 77.25 - note the highlighted slope confluence (look for a larger reaction there IF reached).
Initial support back at 72.14 with bullish invalidation now raised to 71.02 .
MB
Will Iran's Nuclear Ambitions Redefine Global Energy Markets?In a world where geopolitical tensions and energy markets dance an intricate waltz, the latest developments surrounding Iran's nuclear program have emerged as a pivotal factor in global oil dynamics. The Biden administration's deliberation of military options against Iranian atomic facilities has introduced a new variable into the complex equation of international energy markets, forcing investors and analysts to reassess their traditional market models.
The strategic significance of the Middle East's oil infrastructure, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, hangs in delicate balance as diplomatic chess moves unfold. With approximately one-fifth of the world's oil supply flowing through this crucial chokepoint, the stakes extend far beyond regional politics, touching every corner of the global economy. Market participants have begun incorporating these heightened risks into their pricing models, reflecting a new reality where geopolitical considerations carry as much weight as traditional supply and demand metrics.
The energy sector stands at a crossroads where strategic petroleum reserves, investment strategies, and risk management protocols face unprecedented challenges. Portfolio managers and energy traders must navigate this complex landscape while balancing short-term volatility against long-term strategic positioning. As the situation continues to evolve, the global oil market serves as a mirror reflecting the broader implications of international security dynamics, challenging conventional wisdom about energy market fundamentals and forcing a reevaluation of traditional risk assessment models.
USOIL Will Move Lower! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for USOIL.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 72.837.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 68.454.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Brent - good start of oil in the new year!Brent oil is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour time frame and is moving in its upward channel. On the ceiling of the ascending channel, we will look for oil selling positions. In case of a valid break of the $75 range, we can see the continuation of the downward trend. On the other hand, within the demand zone, we can buy with a suitable risk reward.
Over the past three months, the Brent crude oil market has emerged as the largest commodity market in the world, with a daily trading volume of $75.2 billion. The credit rating agency Fitch has stated that geopolitical tensions may increase volatility in the global oil and gas sector. The agency expects global oil demand in 2025 to grow at a similar pace to 2024, although this growth is likely to be slower than in 2022 and 2023.
President Joe Biden is reportedly planning to impose a 20-year ban on leasing public lands for oil and gas exploration in Nevada. According to Fox News, this move is being considered in the final weeks of Biden’s presidency, just ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration. This prohibition would prevent companies from leasing federal lands in the region for oil and gas exploration or extraction activities.
As reported by Axios, Biden has been reviewing potential options for a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. This action would only be considered if Iran takes significant steps toward building nuclear weapons before January 20. Reports indicate that Iran has enriched uranium to 60%, which is close to the 90% threshold required for weapons-grade material. Additionally, advancements in Iran’s centrifuge technology suggest the country could achieve this level within a matter of days.
However, reports also caution that developing a nuclear warhead would still require at least one year. These assessments come as Biden approaches the end of his term and Donald Trump prepares to assume the presidency.
Trump’s approach to Iran and its nuclear program is a topic of great interest, given his record during his first term. Previously, Trump adopted a “maximum pressure” strategy against Iran and withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The question now arises whether he will pursue a similar course of action or take a different approach in his new administration.
CL - Crude Oil confirmation and unwritten potentialHi guys, we are following up with probably one of our favourite assets to participate in. You guessed it right it's CL. Currently the Crude Oil is sitting in a very specific range , which has been traded since late August , until the end of October where we saw a big spike and got out of boundaries due to the escalation in Iran and Israel, of which after the cooling off we got back into the range of 73.00 as a strong resistance line , and 67.00 as a strong support. This range has made a lot of traders stay away from CL, but I do believe that there is potential to be caught.
Current analysis and entry :
Entry today at a level of 68.90 , with two targets of take profit :
Target 1: 71.52
Target 2: 72.92
Now this is the bold move if you don't want to miss out on the current opportunity and your Risk Tolerance is on the higher end.
If you want to be more protective and your Risk Tolerance is on the lower side, you can get a Pending Order at the level of 66.61 , and then enter 3 follow up targets
Target 1: 68.50
Target 2: 71.05
Target 3: 72.45
P.S. My current opinion is to go with a current entry because the missing out of opportunity is too high ,hence we are seeing more tensions in Israel&Gaza conflict, additionally the tightening of the situation in Ukraine&Russia adds more Fundamental Value, towards a swing on an upside of the Crude Oil.
Do let me know in the comments below or in my community what is your thought process and opinion about our favourite Black Gold!
Happy Trading!
WTI OIL Break-out or rejection strategy.WTI Oil (USOIL) gave us an excellent buy signal last time (December 27, see chart below) that produced a Bullish Leg straight to our $72.80 Target:
The price is right now above Resistance 2 and almost at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up. Having completed a +6.65% rise (which was the previous Bullish Leg), it is now highly likely to start seeing a reversal to a Bearish Leg. Especially since the 1D RSI is testing the October 07 2024 High.
As long the price gets rejected below the top of the Channel Up, we will be bearish, targeting $70.50 (above the 0.618 Fib and the 1D MA50). If the price breaks and closes a 1D candle above the Channel Up, we will take the small loss and switch to a buy, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at $75.15.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Crude Oil January Futures: Bullish Option Trade SetupBuilding upon my prior analysis, where I held a bearish outlook on Crude Oil January Futures , I now present a contrasting bullish perspective. While I had previously emphasized the confidentiality of the stop-loss level for short trades, this setup focuses on a call option strategy aligned with my expectations of upward momentum in the market.
For this trade, I have chosen the 6000 strike call option . The optimal entry point for this position is below ₹234.20 , providing a favorable risk-reward ratio. As of this writing, the current market quote (best offer) stands at ₹186.00 , offering an attractive entry opportunity for bullish traders.
My target for this position is set at ₹468.40 , which I anticipate achieving by the contract's expiry on 15th January 2025.
Key Notes:
This trade is based on my personal analysis and market perspective.
It is important to emphasize that this is not a trade recommendation for the public.
The stop-loss level remains confidential and forms an integral part of my risk management approach.
Disclaimer:
Trading in options and futures involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. This analysis is solely my personal view and is shared for informational purposes. Perform your own due diligence or consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
RBOB post tariff structure and range to take advantage of!Hi guys today we are starting off with RBOB , which has been quiet for the past month and it has been trading in a structured range between 2.05 as a high resistance and 1.92 / 1.94 as strong support. As of today we are currently sitting at the given support line of 1.92 and the latest news which came from President Trump that he will impose tariffs on Canadian and Mexican Imports , which would probably impact and touch the Oil Industry. The U.S. imports 4M barrels of Crude Oil every single day from Canada and around 900-1M barrels of Oil Crude Oil from Mexico. These tariffs would definitely touch the consumer as a long term which would give us a boost into the overall demand / supply play around the prices of Petroleum Products.
Current entry RBOB (Gasoline)
1.9300 entry level, with two separate targets.
Target 1: 1.9755
Target 2: 2.0310
The strategy can be repeated after the targets are touched with a patient retracement of the lower support line and input similar targets.
WTI Oil D1 | Potential bearish reversalWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 72.17 which is a swing-high resistance that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 73.60 which is a level that sits above a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 69.21 which is a swing-low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.