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Usoilanalysis

USOil | New perspective for the week | Follow-up detailA record number of new coronavirus cases in China (the world's highest importer of crude oil) coupled with the inability of the EU to agree on a price cap for Russian oil Crude prices resulted in a plunge in price as the price fell for a third straight week. From a technical standpoint, it is obvious that price action has been caught within a channel ($93.50 and $87.00) in the last couple of months to emphasize the indecision in the market. However, it is worth noting that the lower timeframes reveal that price action has continued to find lower lows and lower highs in the last 3 weeks to signal a possible bearish continuation in the new week but we can not ignore the possibility of a breakout of the bearish trendline to incite a reversal structure. Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, and risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
FX:USOILSPOT
by darcsherry
USOil | New perspective for the week | Follow-up detailThis is a follow-up video to my previous publication on this commodity where we closed the week with over 1,000pips in profit (see link below for reference purposes). The price of oil dropped by about 10% during the course of last week trading session and this is likely due to concern about weakened demand in China and further increases to U.S. interest rates. From a technical standpoint, we must keep our expectation open for the week as the tendency of price going either way becomes stronger as the weeks go by. The breakdown of the key level at the $85 level is a strong bearish and we are not sure if a retest of this structure will happen before another phase of decline in price. Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
FX:USOILSPOT
by darcsherry
The Beast is here!-12 Hour analysisShort Term Long (until real confirmation) Things don't ever travel in a straight line in Oil. That's why people who enjoy volatility and risk tend to trade it. Now bigger picture moves will almost always shake traders out of great moves with retests of tops/bottoms and extreme highs followed by extreme lows. When you've been thrown around enough, you learn to just trade the extreme zones an wait for catalysts. What's been happening since the last idea? Well Oil did reverse/resume from 93.62-7 and began the trip to the downside to test a key support/supports as mentioned. First the 82-83 level, from which it reacted quite strongly to go and retest 93.7 a month later. 11 days after that, we found our selves at 77.2-3 area. Even though it was 2pm UTC on a Friday we could not resist taking the entry that rewarded 300 pips in 6 hours. 77.28 was the lowest long entry price of those mentioned in the last idea for a potential moves to the upside and it has rewarded so far. However with a capital H, bearishness may not be done just yet. 50% of long positions were closed at 80.3 with the remainder having SLs at 78.2 and TPs at 83, 84, and 85-86 area. The main reason for this caution is that last year something quite similar happened around Oct-Dec period. There was a mark up in Oct and some of Nov followed by a drop in Nov. Towards the end of the year, there was a rise and fall (whilst falling overall) in the last week of November. If anyone remembers this happening, they used the last week of November to go and retest the lows of the year. We are not saying the exact thing will happen but we are very conscious of the possibility of this happening. If the last week of November plays similar to that of last year, we are looking at the following things: BEARISH VIEW Pump from 77.28 to 83/84/85 area and strong sell signals to sell Oil down further to test 2022 lows. Now the lowest level Price has been at in the year of 2022 is 74.2-3. This is a level that we may be looking for buys at come the start of Dec 2022 or Jan 2023. There is a significant 12 Green Vector candle from 201221 with a body bottom of 64.45 to also keep in the back of our minds. BULLISH VIEW In order to actually be fully bullish on this market we need to see a bottom formed at or around the area that the strong rejection has taken place (or better still at some of the levels mentioned below). We then need to see clear failures to break that bottom followed by some serious long signals like strong Bullish engulfing patterns in conjunction with a double bottom. It would also be good to see the turn of the year before really getting long blindly. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Lower levels to keep in mind: 76.26 - Although we have just come all the way back down to 77.28 on 181122, we didn't actually test the real low of 260922 but instead came within 100pips. This could be a Higher high indicating that the trend can still be up in the bigger picture. Furthermore, in coming to 77.28, it recovered a 4 Hour Blue Vector Candle from 260922. Things tend to go up when this happens. But equally it means if it s to for example want to make a double bottom, it probably will come back to 76.26. 75.66 - So when Price came down to 76.26 on 260922, it came within 60 pips of making contact with the next Green Vector candle below which would have been from 271221 at said price. The bottom of this Vector candle is actually at 73.4. 74.2-3 - As previously mentioned, this is the lowest that price was in the year of 2022. 73.4 - The bottom of the Green Vector candle from 271221 71.3 - Green Vector 69.46 -Green Vector 67.24 - Green Vector 61.8-62.7 - 2021 Key Support 57.2 - 2021 (March) Launch pad 51.5 - 2021 Low Higher levels to keep in mind: 83, 85, 87, 89, 93, 95, 97, 99, 103 (price gap) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Good luck traders! This is not financial advice and should be taken with a pinch of salt!
TVC:USOILLong
by Squeeezy-Trader
USOil | New perspective for the week | Follow-up detailIt is fact that WTI crude oil gained about 10% in October following the OPEC+ decision to cut oil production but it doesn't appear that decision is making a significant impact as the price is unable to break out of the $93.50 area in the last couple of weeks. From a technical standpoint, price action is caught within a consolidation phase between the $93.50 and $86.00 zone to emphasize the indecision in the market as we head into the new week. So, a piece of caution is needed at this juncture in the market as anything could happen here. Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
TVC:USOIL
by darcsherry
6
USOIL USOIL price chart analysis on the weekly time frame. In line with the "Keep it simple stupid" philosophy, my trend analysis shows that when the 13 SMA crosses the 48 SMA, it is a notable occurrence, possibly indicating a change in trend upcoming. My buy or sell decision occurs when the red 48 SMA turns down (Bear) or up (Bull) and I'll stay in the trade watching the price candles ride underneath or over top of the 48 SMA. This simple strategy shows me possible % gains if playing various long or short market equity instruments and entering/exiting the trade near or at these occurrences. I use the support resistance lines to indicate increased algo or trader action around those levels. I could also add other indicators such as custom buy sell signals and or MACD, RSI, SAR to assist my decision making but the trend based idea keeps me grounded in the trade. I generally use Heikin-Ashi candles for simplicity/clarity and also remove the wicks. None of this should be interpreted as financial advice, I am not a professional or certified financial adviser! all charts, and or analysis' are my personal opinions and observations only!
TVC:USOIL
by Turtlecoins
Oil needs to stay below 95-100USD for disinflation to continueHello friends. Theres a lot of stuff going on in the crypto space but we keep our head clear. We flipped net long on our portfolio after BTC's last drop to 15K as we believe this is the 5th wave of the impulse down. If you are interested to see our portfolio, please refer to the links below. We expect a rough ride till at least the end of November but we see a lot of positive signs for a market recovery. The most important one is inflation coming down. In order to keep this trend of prices coming down, we need to have a close look at the oil price. We dont know what the sanctions on Russian oil will imply for the market, so we need to wait and see. So we keep it simple: for disinflation to continue we need to keep the oil price roughly below 93 USD, where the POC resides (wicks to 100 USD excluded). If oil breaks out above 100 USD we have a big problem. Yet as shown on the chart, we believe the oil bull run has calmed down and believe price will stay in the range between 93 and 56 USD. Hopefully we can continue our impulse waves down to land on 56 USD volume support. Yet, in the current macro and geopolitical environment we need to be careful with projections as any event can invalidate it immediately. Oil is leading for inflation and we hope consumers, businesses and the market will find relief with a lower oil price. I wish everyone good luck!
TVC:USOILShort
by cryptobullethbtcxlm
2
USOil | New perspective for the week | Follow-up detailWe have been on a profit spree since taking advantage of the breakout of the most anticipated key level at the $86.00 zone. On Friday, we witnessed a 5% rally in the price of oil, and this is not unconnected to China's decision to ease the COVID-Zero policy and the market overreacted accordingly. Remember, China is the largest importer of Oil hence the ability to drive volatility. From a technical standpoint, as the price edges towards the $93.50 level, I am of the opinion that we wait and see how the price reacts to this level before either making a decision of adding to the existing buy position or hedh=ging out of the position. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
TVC:USOIL
by darcsherry
2
Crude Oil Volatility Forecast 7-11 November 2022 Crude Oil Volatility Forecast 7-11 November 2022 We can see that this week our volatility is at 6.63% which declined from 6.88% last week. Currently according to ATR we are on 61th percentile, and according to OVX we are on 85th percentile, indicating in both cases, that we are currently is volatile market. Now, based on the implied volatility data that we have for this week, lets look into further details. We can see that currently there is 29.1% chance, that our candle is going to close at the end of the week either above/below the next channel TOP: 97.25 BOT: 84.73 This can also be translated as a 70.9% chance that the market is going to move within this established range. At the same, looking at the previous high/low values of the candle, and taking into account the entire history available of data, we can expect that there is going to be a 71% chance that we are going to touch the previous high of 93.05 30% chance that we are going to touch the previous low of 85.5
NYMEX:CL1!
by exlux
USOil | New perspective for the week | Follow-up detailThis is a follow-up detail to my previous analysis of this commodity where we closed the week with approximately 200pips profit. Oil prices plunged about 1% on Friday after top crude oil importer China widened its COVID-19 curbs, though the price of oil rose during the course of last week's trading session after a significant breakout of the much anticipated $86.00 level to set the tone for a bullish momentum in the coming week(s). Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
FX:USOILSPOTLong
by darcsherry
1