Oil Analysis - updateG'day all, hope you're well.
Well, looks like the EMA theory I mentioned before turned out to be correct. Check out my previous posts for the low down on that if you like. The price fell through the 55 EMA (yellow) and failed to get back above it, or at least hold above it. In theory, the next stop should be the Sasha Grey EMA, or the 200 EMA if you wanna be technical and politically correct. This would make plenty of sense as it would line up with the W pattern's neckline, which happened to be the .618 when measured from the last high before its formation to the next logical low (dotted Fib retracement on the left), which also turns out to be the 0.5 Fib retracement of the overall move if you consider a 5-wave count from the Covid bottom to the peak. A great technical retracement for those of you who go by Gann theory.
That being said, the .618 Fib retracement is still below us at around $50/barrel. Could it actually hit there? Who knows. If this pop ends up being anything similar to the 2008 pop, then yeah, it could. In my shitty opinion, if it does dip that low, I'd bet that it would get bought up pretty quickly. On the weekly chart, it would likely end up looking like a wick, possibly a reversal type candle such as a dragonfly doji or something similar. Point being, I doubt prices would hover around there for too long before greed sets back in.
We'd also have to take into account the WEF's push for green energy, weaning off of fossil fuels, worldwide recession...all that stuff. At the risk of sounding like a conspiracy theorist, it really seems like they're pushing HARD to make their agenda a reality. There's evidence of this worldwide at this point and they have been pretty publically vocal about it. So it could be possible that even if oil prices fall to these levels, fuel prices may remain high as part of their push for a "greener world". Let's leave aside the debate of how EV's can cost more in the long run and be just as or more polluting to the environment. Regardless, these elites see an opportunity for creating a bigger profit margin, more control and more economical/social status division, so I highly doubt they'd ditch all of that and take the moral high ground to improve affordability for peasants like us :)
Well, that's my 2 cents worth.
TL;DR: Price action fell below the yellow 55 EMA and now we're looking to be on top of Sasha Grey at around $64 - $70/barrel. Giggity.
Stay safe all!
