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Usoilanalysis

Crude Oil Market Analysis and Trading SignalsTechnical analysis of crude oil Daily resistance 83.4, support below 77.5 Four-hour resistance 82, support below 80.7-79 Crude oil operation suggestions: After a bottom rebound in the daily chart of crude oil, the upward momentum has slowed down. Short-term is accompanied by a second roundabout retracement confirmation. The daily chart uses the middle track as the support point. Go long after the retracement confirmation. Today's lower support continues to focus on yesterday's hourly neckline support of 80.5. Relying on this position, the main bullish trend remains unchanged. The upper target is still near the daily pressure of 83.4. The short-term bullish strong dividing line focuses on the 80.7 mark. If the daily level stands firm at this position. Continue to follow the trend and do more. Short selling can participate near the daily resistance of 83.4. (At the same time, beware of trend changes, and there is also a warning of a sharp drop in the technical side) SELL:80.7near SL:81.10 SELL:82.0near SL:82.40 SELL:83.4near SL:83.70 Technical analysis only provides trading direction!
FX:USOILSPOT
by ActuaryJ
Brent Crude Surges in June But Chart Pattern Raises ConcernsBrent Crude Surges in June as Inventory Draw Tightens Market, But Chart Pattern Raises Concerns Brent crude oil prices experienced a significant rally in June 2024, rising 5% over the month. This increase adds to a positive trend for the year so far, with Brent crude accumulating a total gain of 12.85% year-to-date. However, a closer look at the price chart reveals a potential concern – the formation of a rising wedge pattern, which could indicate a reversal in the upward trend. Understanding Brent Crude and Its Global Influence Brent crude oil, extracted from the North Sea, is a light sweet crude oil variety. Widely traded across the globe, it serves as a benchmark for oil pricing, influencing other crudes like West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark. Supply, demand, geopolitical tensions, and global economic health are all factors that impact Brent crude prices. In June 2024, a confluence of events pushed prices higher. US Inventory Draw Tightens the Market A key driver of the June price increase was a significant decline in US crude oil inventories. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a drop of 2.55 million barrels. This decrease signifies that demand for crude oil is outpacing supply, a classic recipe for rising prices. Several factors could explain the inventory decline. Economic growth can lead to increased energy consumption by businesses and consumers, driving up demand for crude oil. Geopolitical tensions can also disrupt oil supplies, further tightening available inventories. OPEC+ Decision Adds Fuel to the Fire Another factor influencing June's price increase was the decision by OPEC+, a group of oil-producing countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, to loosen production cuts. Implemented in April 2020 to support oil prices during the COVID-19 pandemic, these cuts were gradually lifted as the global economy recovered in 2024. The OPEC+ decision was interpreted as a sign of a tightening oil market. With rising demand and only a gradual increase in production from OPEC+, concerns arose about potential future supply constraints. This concern played a role in pushing Brent crude prices higher in June. The Rising Wedge: A Potential Threat to the Upward Trend? While the June price increase paints a picture of a robust oil market, a technical analysis of the Brent crude price chart reveals a potentially bearish pattern – the rising wedge. This chart formation consists of two upward-sloping trendlines, with prices seemingly trapped within an expanding channel. While the price appears to be rising, the trendlines narrow as the pattern progresses, suggesting a potential loss of momentum. A breakout from the rising wedge, particularly downwards, is often seen as a bearish signal, indicating a potential reversal in the price trend. This could lead to a decline in Brent crude prices in the coming months. The Two-Sided Coin of Rising Oil Prices Higher Brent crude prices have a double-edged impact on the global economy. On the one hand, consumers face the burden of rising gasoline prices, which can strain household budgets and impact businesses reliant on transportation. Additionally, higher oil prices translate to increased costs for transportation and other goods and services. On the other hand, oil-producing countries benefit from the price hike. Increased revenue allows them to invest in infrastructure, social programs, and economic development initiatives. The Road Ahead: Uncertainties and Opportunities Predicting the future of oil prices is a complex task. Global economic growth, geopolitical tensions, and OPEC+ production decisions will all play a role. However, the June price increase and the formation of the rising wedge pattern highlight the dynamic nature of the oil market. While the upward trend suggests continued price increases in the near term, the rising wedge pattern warrants caution. Investors and businesses involved in oil-dependent industries should closely monitor the price chart and economic factors to navigate the potential market shift.
TVC:USOIL
by bryandowningqln
USOIL: Short near 81.and Support 79.5~79.7Crude oil technical analysis Daily resistance 83.4, support below 77.5 Four-hour resistance 81, support below 80-77.5 Crude oil operation suggestions: Crude oil slightly rose to 81 yesterday, and then fell back and fluctuated sideways under pressure. The overall price support stabilized above the 80 mark, showing a strong bullish oscillation rhythm. The short-term local decline adjustment will not change the overall bullish strength. At the same time, short-term adjustments will provide better opportunities for long orders to enter the market. Today's support is around 79.7-79.5. If it falls back to this position during the day, continue to go long. The upper target continues to focus on the new high. The short-term bullish strong dividing line focuses on the 79 mark. If the daily level stabilizes above this position, continue to go long at a low price. SELL:80.0 near SL:80.40 SELL:81.0 near SL:81.30 SELL:83.4 near SL:83.70 Technical analysis only provides trading direction!
FX:USOILSPOT
by ActuaryJ
USOIL: Can crude oil stabilize at the 80 mark?Technical analysis of crude oil Daily resistance 83.4, support below 77-75 Four-hour resistance 81, support below 80-79 Operation suggestions for crude oil: The overall technical form of crude oil shows a bullish breakthrough. Today's support below continues to focus on yesterday's hourly neckline near 79.5-79.7. Return to this area during the day to continue to follow the trend and look for a breakthrough. The upper target is still expected to break through. The overall bullish strong dividing line moves up to the 78 mark. The daily level stabilizes above this position and continues to follow the trend and keep the low-price long rhythm unchanged. (At the same time, beware of sudden trend changes. The technical side also has a warning of a sharp drop and wash) BUY:80.0 near SL:79.70 SELL:81.0 near SL:81.30 SELL:83.4 near SL:83.70 Technical analysis only provides trading direction!
FX:USOILSPOTLong
by ActuaryJ
OIL: Operation in the range of 77~80Crude Oil Technical Analysis Daily resistance is 80-83.4, support below is 77-75 Four-hour resistance is 80, support below is 77.8 Crude oil operation advice: Yesterday, crude oil experienced a strong bullish rise around the 77.5 mark. In the Asian and European markets, the price slightly stepped back to test and stabilized at the 77.5 mark, ushering in a rebound. The European market rose slightly and broke through the 78 mark, falling into sideways fluctuations. After the US Bulls continued to work hard during the session, and the hourly line continued to rise and broke through and stood at the 79 mark, and continued to rise to close strongly near the 80 mark. After the overall price fluctuated around the 77 mark for nearly 4 trading days, the bulls broke through. In the short term, the oil price stood above the 79 mark and entered the bullish rebound cycle again. Today's lower support focuses on the neckline of yesterday's hourly line near 78.5-78.7. The intraday retracement relies on this position to continue to be bullish. The upper target continues to focus on breaking highs. The short-term long-short strength and weakness dividing line focuses on the 77 mark. Any retracement before the daily level falls below this position is a long opportunity. BUY: 78.4 near SL: 78.00 BUY: 77.8 near SL: 77.50 SELL: 80.0 near SL: 80.50 Technical analysis only provides trading direction!
FX:USOILSPOTLong
by ActuaryJ
Oil Broader Support Market Optimism, Despite Lingering UncertainOil prices edged higher this week, marking their strongest gain in seven days. This upward momentum came despite a somewhat ambiguous outlook for crude itself, suggesting the driving force behind the rise lies elsewhere: positive sentiment in the broader financial markets. Risk-On Rally Lifts Oil The primary factor behind oil's recent rise is the prevailing "risk-on" sentiment dominating global markets. Equity indices, particularly in the United States, have been scaling new highs, with the S&P 500 reaching its 30th record this year. This optimism seems to be spilling over into the commodities market, including oil. Investors, buoyed by the positive performance in equities, are displaying a greater willingness to take on risk, and oil is seen as a potential beneficiary. OPEC+ Cuts and Geopolitical Tensions Offer Underlying Support Beyond the broader market sentiment, a couple of oil-specific factors are also contributing to the price increase. Firstly, the decision by OPEC+, the world's leading oil producer alliance, to extend production cuts has helped to tighten supply and prop up prices. Anxieties surrounding potential disruptions due to geopolitical tensions in major oil-producing regions like the Middle East are also lending some support. Mixed Outlook for Crude: Demand Questions Linger However, the outlook for crude remains somewhat clouded by uncertainties. While the supply side appears relatively stable thanks to OPEC+ intervention, demand remains a question mark. Signs of slowing economic growth in some parts of the world, particularly in Asia, raise concerns about future oil consumption. Data from China, a major consumer of oil, recently indicated weaker-than-expected industrial activity, potentially signaling a softening demand outlook. Additionally, rising gasoline prices in some regions, like India, could dampen consumer spending and lead to lower demand for fuel. The Balancing Act: Weighing Optimism Against Uncertainty The current situation presents a complex picture for oil markets. The positive sentiment in broader financial markets is providing a tailwind for oil prices. However, this is counterbalanced by lingering uncertainties about future demand, particularly in Asia. The net effect of these opposing forces will determine the future trajectory of oil prices. Looking Ahead: Navigating a Volatile Market Oil will likely see continued volatility in oil markets. Investors will be closely monitoring key factors like: • Global economic performance: The health of major economies, particularly China, will significantly influence oil demand. • Monetary policy decisions: Actions by central banks, especially the U.S. Federal Reserve, could impact risk appetite and indirectly affect oil prices. • Geopolitical developments: Events in major oil-producing regions can disrupt supply and cause price spikes. By carefully weighing these factors, market participants can navigate the current uncertainty and make informed decisions regarding oil investments.
FX:USOILLong
by bryandowningqln
Crude oil is trading in a range, with a focus on 73.8~76.5Technical analysis of crude oil Daily resistance 78.4, support below 72.7 Four-hour resistance 76, support below 75-73.8 Crude oil operation suggestions: Crude oil fell first and then rose last week. The weekly line is in a wide range of fluctuations, and there is no strong unilateral trend. In the form of repeated tug-of-war between long and short positions, pay attention to the support of the low point of 73.80 this week. If it holds, it will continue to be bullish. The overall price shows a rhythm of long and short narrow fluctuations. Although the daily level has experienced two consecutive positive fluctuations and rebounded, the overall technical indicators are still in a short position. The upper side is still facing the pressure of the 76.5 mark. Today's rebound relies on the 76.5 line to continue to be short first. The short-term support below focuses on the vicinity of 74.3-74.5. Today, we will rely on this range to maintain the rhythm of fluctuations and sell high and buy low. SELL:76.0 near SL:76.50 BUY:73.8 near SL:73.40 Technical analysis only provides trading direction!
FX:USOILSPOT
by ActuaryJ
Oil Price Find Footing as Inflation Cools, Russia Threatens CutThe global oil market witnessed a balancing act this week, with prices finding temporary stability despite conflicting forces. While data indicating a possible slowdown in US inflation offered some relief, Russia's vow to cut oil production cast a shadow of potential future price hikes. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures, the US benchmark, remained above $78 a barrel, clinging to the gains accrued throughout the week. This stability comes after a period of volatility, with oil prices having fluctuated significantly in recent months due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and concerns about global economic growth. The US Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates at their current level was the primary source of comfort for the market. This decision, coupled with recent signs of cooling inflation, suggests a potential shift in the Fed's monetary policy stance. Earlier concerns about aggressive interest rate hikes to combat inflation had dampened economic activity and raised fears of a recession, potentially leading to a decline in oil demand. The Fed's decision to pause on rate hikes, with the possibility of one cut later in the year, provided a sigh of relief for the oil market. However, this cautious optimism was countered by Russia's announcement of a potential production cut. Russia, a major oil producer, has been a key player in the recent oil price volatility. The ongoing war in Ukraine has disrupted global oil supplies, and Russia has hinted at further reductions in output in retaliation for Western sanctions. This threat of a supply squeeze could push oil prices higher in the coming months, potentially negating the positive sentiment stemming from the Fed's decision. Analysts remain divided on the long-term trajectory of oil prices. Some believe that a global economic slowdown, fueled by rising interest rates and ongoing geopolitical tensions, will eventually lead to a decrease in demand. This, coupled with a potential increase in oil production from other major producers like the US, could bring prices down. However, others warn that the geopolitical risks remain significant. The war in Ukraine shows no signs of abating, and further disruptions to Russian oil exports could trigger another price surge. Additionally, the limited spare production capacity among major producers could make it difficult to compensate for any potential Russian output cuts. The outlook for oil prices in the coming months is thus uncertain. While the Fed's decision and signs of cooling inflation offer some hope for stability, the threat of Russian production cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to pose significant upside risks. Looking beyond the immediate future, the long-term trend for oil prices will likely depend on the pace of the global energy transition. As countries around the world invest in renewable energy sources and push for decarbonization, the demand for oil is expected to decline over time. This could lead to a gradual decrease in oil prices in the long run. However, the transition away from fossil fuels is a complex process, and oil is likely to remain a critical source of energy for many years to come. In conclusion, the global oil market is currently navigating a period of flux. While short-term factors like the Fed's monetary policy and potential Russian production cuts are influencing prices, the long-term trajectory remains uncertain and will depend heavily on the pace of the global energy transition. Consumers and businesses alike should brace for continued volatility in the oil market, with prices likely to remain sensitive to geopolitical developments and economic data releases.
TVC:USOIL
by bryandowningqln
USOIL - Summer demand expectations are supporting pricesReuters stated that the Fed has raised hobby prices sharply in 2022 and 2023 to minimize growing inflation. Rising borrowing fees for customers and corporations ought to gradual financial boom and decrease oil call for. Meanwhile, a robust dollar ought to hose down oil call for via way of means of making greenback-denominated commodities like oil extra costly for holders of different currencies. Commenting at the surprising acceleration in oil costs, analysts at strength consulting company Gelber and Associates stated summer time season call for expectancies are helping costs. Goldman Sachs analysts stated they anticipate Brent oil costs to upward thrust to $86/barrel withinside the 0.33 quarter. In their report, those analysts stated that strong summer time season transportation call for will push the oil marketplace right into a deficit of 1.three million barrels in step with day withinside the 0.33 quarter. Oil costs rose regardless of the greenback growing to a four-week excessive following a pointy decline withinside the euro. Last week, oil costs fell for the 0.33 consecutive week because of worries that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies` (OPEC+) plan to boost a few manufacturing cuts from October might similarly growth supply. Investor interest is presently turning to US purchaser charge index records for May to be launched on June 12, searching out suggestions approximately whilst the Fed can also additionally begin decreasing hobby prices. The marketplace is additionally "waiting" for the consequences of the Fed's two-day coverage assembly beginning on June 12 with the expectancy that americaA Central Bank will preserve hobby prices stable. The marketplace has tempered expectancies for a Fed charge reduce in September following jobs boom records launched ultimate week. According to records from LSEG Financial Company, buyers additionally diminished expectancies approximately the extent of Fed easing this year, with handiest one hobby charge reduce.
TVC:USOILShort
by TheLeader_WOLF
USOIL ANALYSIS (SHORT) (11/06/24)Pretty self explanatory and simple. Using the bias (Bearish) I simply mapped out the last area which created a significant break. Within this area - price should gear towards the demand zone below - however I do acknowledge that price had already reached demand in an earlier period and therefore if price breaks through the POI (For which there will be potential to do so - due to upper imbalance found on a bigger TF), I would seek for an entry point allowing me to ride out the buy.
TVC:USOILShort
by saintprincevvs
Crude oil continues to bearish pressureTechnical analysis of crude oil Daily resistance 74.2, support below 72.7 Four-hour resistance 73.7-74.2, support below 72-71 Crude oil operation suggestions: Crude oil continued the recent extremely weak short-term unilateral downward rhythm yesterday, with the Asian and European sessions showing a downward trend, and the US session suppressed and fluctuated below the 73.5 mark. The overall price continued the recent unilateral short-term downward rhythm. Today's upper resistance is around 73.7-74.2. Today's rebound relies on this position to continue the main short-term bearish trend. The short-term oil price short-term weak dividing line focuses on the 74.2 mark. Any rebound before the daily level breaks through and stands on this position is a short-selling opportunity, and keep trading with the trend. SELL:74.2 near SL:74.50 SELL:73.7 near SL:74.20 Technical analysis only provides trading direction!
FX:USOILSPOTShort
by ActuaryJ
3105 USOIL could reach 73 in the near coming ?Hello traders, USOIL is making a smiling curve on weekly chart, check the left one. This means in a long term view, OIL will rise again. But right now on 6H right chart, in the middle term view, it could reach 73 first to finish a five-wave downtrend to reach the support level or buying zone. The triangle with the mouth open is an oscillating pattern. When the price touches the suppression line above the triangle, it is time to go short. Fibo ext 1.618 is where it will possible reach as the end of 5th wave. GOOD LUCK! LESS IS MORE!
TVC:USOILShort
by FUNTRADER-Vera
1
World oil prices are in the process of accumulationWorld oil fees extended 2% at the buying and selling consultation on June 6, after the European Central Bank (ECB) determined to reduce hobby fees, elevating hopes that americaA Federal Reserve (Fed) will comparable action. Meanwhile, ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, called OPEC+, reassured traders that the ultra-modern oil output settlement should alternate relying at the situation. into the marketplace. At the quit of this consultation, Brent North Sea crude oil charge extended through 1.forty six USD, equal to 1.86%, to 79.87 USD/barrel. The charge of US mild candy oil (WTI) extended through 1.forty eight USD, equal to 2%, to 75.fifty five USD/barrel. On June 6, the ECB carried out the primary hobby charge reduce on account that 2019, mentioning development in pushing lower back inflation, however caution of inflationary strain withinside the Copper Area. Euro (Eurozone) continues. Specifically, the ECB diminished hobby fees through 25 foundation points, to 3.75%, after maintaining hobby fees unchanged from October 2023. Lower gas charges and easing post-pandemic deliver constraints have helped push inflation right all the way down to 2.6% withinside the 20 nations that use the euro, from 10% on the quit of 2022. Investors are actually much less sure than they had been some weeks in the past that inflation has fallen sufficient for the ECB to adopt a large-scale economic coverage easing cycle. In americaA, economists expect the Fed will reduce hobby fees in September 2024. The range of Americans submitting preliminary unemployment claims rose closing week and hard work charges rose much less withinside the first area of 2024 than forecast, the Labor Department stated. While this indicates americaA hard work marketplace is cooling, it's miles not going to spark off the Fed to begin slicing hobby fees. Meanwhile, buying and selling company Trafigura`s leader economist Saad Rahim stated OPEC+'s choice to steadily raise a few manufacturing cuts, blended with sturdy gas supplies, had driven oil fees down. reduced withinside the beyond few sessions. Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman stated on June 6 that OPEC+ should pause or opposite the growth in manufacturing if it reveals that the marketplace isn't sturdy sufficient./.
TVC:USOILLong
by Chart_MasterPro
USOIL SHORT The price may rise to $82 but could also fall to about $70. 101.9 million barrels of oil will be consumed worldwide per day. By next year, the oil markets appear to be oversupplied. Highlights Lower Russian output and more demand brought on by China's reopening could help oil prices. Low demand and a bleak macroeconomic outlook for China When the Energy Information Administration releases its inventory figures on Wednesday, more oil-related information will be available. - --------------- **First Scenario - Long:** Initial Target: $80.90 Entry: $79.08 Stoploss: $77.47 **Second Scenario - Short:** Initial Target: $74 Entry: $78.34 Stoploss: $79.2 - --------------- After a long wait, I am currently waiting for this pair to give me my confirmation for a Short position (Data) - --------------- Take into consideration: It appears that the market has settled in a range of $79.44 to $76.86, with the 7.68 retracement level above the latter being significant. - --------------- NFA DYOR - --------------- Good Luck! ⚠️Caution: Just because I've set my buy and sell position Settings or drawn direction lines on my chart doesn't indicate I've opened a position or am obsessed with a particular bias. This is only a forecast; I don't trade when the price reaches my level; I have rules of engagement. Perhaps the most crucial element is 🆘RISK MANAGEMENT🆘.
TVC:USOILShort
by irfanp056
1
OPEC+ Lowers Its Sights: Farewell to $100 Oil?The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, appear to be waving goodbye to their long-held pursuit of $100-a-barrel oil. This strategic shift marks a significant change for the oil cartel, which has traditionally aimed to manipulate production levels to influence global oil prices. A New Reality Sets In For years, OPEC+ has strived to maintain a $100 price tag for a barrel of crude. However, the rise of the American shale industry, a technological marvel that unlocked vast domestic oil reserves in the United States, threw a wrench into their plans. This newfound production glut significantly impacted OPEC+'s ability to control oil prices through production cuts. In a recent meeting, OPEC+ acknowledged this new reality. Instead of clinging to the $100 dream, they announced a gradual increase in production quotas, likely leading to lower oil prices. This decision reflects a pragmatic approach to a market fundamentally changed by US shale production. Pumping Now, Before the Window Closes The decision to increase production can be seen as an opportunistic one. With global economies starting to recover from the pandemic and energy demand rising, OPEC+ sees a chance to capitalize on the current market conditions. By pumping more oil now, they can capture a larger share of the market before the shale boom potentially slows down. However, there are also risks associated with this strategy. Flooding the market with additional crude could lead to a price drop, potentially hurting OPEC+ members' long-term revenue streams. A Difficult Time for Saudi Arabia The shift in strategy comes at a particularly challenging time for Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC+. The kingdom faces ambitious spending plans to diversify its economy away from oil dependence. Lower oil prices could significantly hamper these efforts, putting a strain on Saudi Arabia's finances. Uncertainties Remain While the decision to increase production signifies a move away from the $100 target, the long-term implications remain unclear. The exact impact on oil prices will depend on various factors, including the pace of production increases, global economic growth, and the future trajectory of the US shale industry. A Reshaped Oil Market The OPEC+ decision marks a turning point in the global oil market. The era of OPEC+ wielding absolute control over oil prices seems to be over. The rise of US shale has created a new dynamic, forcing OPEC+ to adapt and adjust its strategies. Looking Ahead The oil market's future will likely be characterized by greater competition, with OPEC+ and US shale producers vying for market share. How this competition unfolds and how oil prices react will be a story to watch closely in the coming months and years. Conclusion OPEC+'s decision to increase oil production signifies a strategic shift away from their long-held pursuit of $100-a-barrel oil. While this move presents potential advantages, it also carries risks, particularly for Saudi Arabia. The future of the oil market remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: the landscape has been reshaped, and the era of OPEC+ dominance is fading.
TVC:USOILShort
by bryandowningqln
Crude oil focuses on the 77.5 important dividing line Crude oil technical analysis Daily resistance 77.5, support below 74.4 Four-hour resistance 77.5, support below 76 Crude oil operation suggestions: The overall price of crude oil continues to fluctuate downward above the 78 mark, continuing the recent trend of suppressing short positions. Today, the upper resistance focuses on the starting point of the hourly line decline, 77.5-77.8. During the day, we will continue to rely on this position to continue to be short and follow the trend to fall back. The lower target is still concerned about breaking the bottom. The short-term long and short watershed focuses on the 77.5 line. When you first reach this position, you can try to short with a light position, once. SELL:78.5 near SL:79.00 SELL:77.5 near SL:78.00 Technical analysis only provides trading direction!
FX:USOILSPOTShort
by ActuaryJ
USOil moving lower**Monthly Chart** Last month candle closed bearish after testing the low of key reversal candle of the previous month and started moving lower. The next target on monthly is around 71 level and then 63 level respectively. **Weekly Chart** Last week's candle closed as a bearish key reversal suggesting a continuation of the downtrend move. **Daily Chart** USOil broke the relative equal high of the range with the creation of manipulation candles at around 80 levels. The next target is to break the soft level of supports around 75.50 level and move aggressively lower. A corrective move around 78.00 level is required to push the price lower. The next target is around the 72 to 70 level.
TVC:USOILShort
by PropSignals