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Usoilforecast

Finally time for bullish oil? $USO to $120 then $300+People have been calling for the oil bull market to begin for the past two years and the trade largely hasn't worked as we've gone sideways to down. However, based on the chart, it looks like we're finally ready for a run. This would also line up with my bearish equity thesis. Oil looks to have broken out of an inverse head and shoulders pattern and althought it's a diagonal pattern which are less reliable, the indicators that I have seem to support the narrative. I think there's a possibility that we could see a 4x move over the next year or so. Let's see how it plays out.
AMEX:USOLong
by benjihyam
10
Crude oil market analysisMarket performance Freight rates rose in March and calmed down in May. In June, freight rates from the Middle East to China fell by 0.5 yuan month-on-month. July was also sluggish. At the same time, the gross profit margin of refining fell by 10-30% year-on-year, affecting the enthusiasm of refineries to purchase crude oil. Market risk analysis The US election may affect energy policy. The Democratic and Republican parties have different energy policies. In addition, the US Meteorological Corporation predicts that there will be 25 storms in the Atlantic this year, which may affect oil production and transportation To sum up, my personal analysis shows that the crude oil market will remain low in the second half of the year.
TVC:USOIL
by David_strategy
Oil prices can still be shorted at around 77 to make a profit. The overall trend of oil shows the closing stage of the arc top. There are still some opportunities for decline to short the oil price to make a profit. I am EDDY. Senior Financial Analysis Consultant. I have experienced the financial crisis, the stock market crash, and the market circuit breaker. The current trading opportunities in the market are much better than before. There are many trading opportunities every day. I have been observing investors in the market for a while. I can't bear to see some people in the market continue to lose money because they don't know how to trade. So I plan to continue to share my operating ideas for a while for your reference. If you are still confused about the trading market, you can continue to pay attention to my updates.
TVC:USOILShort
by Eddy_Wealth
USOIL ( BREAKOUT CHANNEL ) ( 4H )USOIL HELLO TRADERS TENDENCY : the price stabilizing below turning level , indicates is under bearish pressure TURNING LEVEL : the price around 81.71 . PRICE MOVEMENT : the price in previously rising an reach a target , but dropping significantly because of the attack on trump . PRICE ACTION : SHORT CONDTION : after the price breaking a channel , price stable bearish zone , currently price 81.14 , price trying to retest before dropping a support level at 80.50 , then breaking this level reach 79.25 . LONG CONDITION : if the price breaking 81.71 by open 4h candle above this level reach a resistance level at 83.57 , then stabilizing above this level reach a 84.97 . TARGET LEVEL : RESISTANCE LEVEL :83.57 , 84.97 SUPPORT LEVEL 80.50 , 79.25
TVC:USOILShort
by ArinaKarayi
USOIL ( UNDER BEARISH PRESSURE ) ( 4H )USOIL HELLO TRADERS Tendency after the price breakout , indicates the price is under bearish pressure TURNING LEVEL : there is a purple line around 82.84 , indicates if the price trade below this level reach a support level , but if the breaking turning level reach a resistance level RESISTANCE LEVEL: there is a green line around 85.25 , indicates selling have already increase this level , when you reach this level buyer have more supply for oil SUPPORT LEVEL : there is a red line around 79.66 , indicates buying have already increase this level , when you reach this level selling have more demand for oil PRICE MOVEMNET : the price stabilizing below turning level around 82.84, in my opinion until the price trade below turning level ,indicates selling have more demand for oil , so reach a support level at 79.66, then breaking this level reach a next target at 77.37, if the price breaking turning level , indicates buyer have more supply for oil , so reach 85.25 and 87.41 TARGET LEVEL : RESISTANCE LEVEL : 85.25 , 87.41 SUPPORT LEVEL : 79.66 , 77.37
TVC:USOILShort
by ArinaKarayi
Crude Oil Market Analysis and Trading SignalsTechnical analysis of crude oil Daily resistance 83.4, support below 77.5 Four-hour resistance 82, support below 80.7-79 Crude oil operation suggestions: After a bottom rebound in the daily chart of crude oil, the upward momentum has slowed down. Short-term is accompanied by a second roundabout retracement confirmation. The daily chart uses the middle track as the support point. Go long after the retracement confirmation. Today's lower support continues to focus on yesterday's hourly neckline support of 80.5. Relying on this position, the main bullish trend remains unchanged. The upper target is still near the daily pressure of 83.4. The short-term bullish strong dividing line focuses on the 80.7 mark. If the daily level stands firm at this position. Continue to follow the trend and do more. Short selling can participate near the daily resistance of 83.4. (At the same time, beware of trend changes, and there is also a warning of a sharp drop in the technical side) SELL:80.7near SL:81.10 SELL:82.0near SL:82.40 SELL:83.4near SL:83.70 Technical analysis only provides trading direction!
FX:USOILSPOT
by ActuaryJ
Brent Crude Surges in June But Chart Pattern Raises ConcernsBrent Crude Surges in June as Inventory Draw Tightens Market, But Chart Pattern Raises Concerns Brent crude oil prices experienced a significant rally in June 2024, rising 5% over the month. This increase adds to a positive trend for the year so far, with Brent crude accumulating a total gain of 12.85% year-to-date. However, a closer look at the price chart reveals a potential concern – the formation of a rising wedge pattern, which could indicate a reversal in the upward trend. Understanding Brent Crude and Its Global Influence Brent crude oil, extracted from the North Sea, is a light sweet crude oil variety. Widely traded across the globe, it serves as a benchmark for oil pricing, influencing other crudes like West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark. Supply, demand, geopolitical tensions, and global economic health are all factors that impact Brent crude prices. In June 2024, a confluence of events pushed prices higher. US Inventory Draw Tightens the Market A key driver of the June price increase was a significant decline in US crude oil inventories. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a drop of 2.55 million barrels. This decrease signifies that demand for crude oil is outpacing supply, a classic recipe for rising prices. Several factors could explain the inventory decline. Economic growth can lead to increased energy consumption by businesses and consumers, driving up demand for crude oil. Geopolitical tensions can also disrupt oil supplies, further tightening available inventories. OPEC+ Decision Adds Fuel to the Fire Another factor influencing June's price increase was the decision by OPEC+, a group of oil-producing countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, to loosen production cuts. Implemented in April 2020 to support oil prices during the COVID-19 pandemic, these cuts were gradually lifted as the global economy recovered in 2024. The OPEC+ decision was interpreted as a sign of a tightening oil market. With rising demand and only a gradual increase in production from OPEC+, concerns arose about potential future supply constraints. This concern played a role in pushing Brent crude prices higher in June. The Rising Wedge: A Potential Threat to the Upward Trend? While the June price increase paints a picture of a robust oil market, a technical analysis of the Brent crude price chart reveals a potentially bearish pattern – the rising wedge. This chart formation consists of two upward-sloping trendlines, with prices seemingly trapped within an expanding channel. While the price appears to be rising, the trendlines narrow as the pattern progresses, suggesting a potential loss of momentum. A breakout from the rising wedge, particularly downwards, is often seen as a bearish signal, indicating a potential reversal in the price trend. This could lead to a decline in Brent crude prices in the coming months. The Two-Sided Coin of Rising Oil Prices Higher Brent crude prices have a double-edged impact on the global economy. On the one hand, consumers face the burden of rising gasoline prices, which can strain household budgets and impact businesses reliant on transportation. Additionally, higher oil prices translate to increased costs for transportation and other goods and services. On the other hand, oil-producing countries benefit from the price hike. Increased revenue allows them to invest in infrastructure, social programs, and economic development initiatives. The Road Ahead: Uncertainties and Opportunities Predicting the future of oil prices is a complex task. Global economic growth, geopolitical tensions, and OPEC+ production decisions will all play a role. However, the June price increase and the formation of the rising wedge pattern highlight the dynamic nature of the oil market. While the upward trend suggests continued price increases in the near term, the rising wedge pattern warrants caution. Investors and businesses involved in oil-dependent industries should closely monitor the price chart and economic factors to navigate the potential market shift.
TVC:USOIL
by bryandowningqln
Oil Broader Support Market Optimism, Despite Lingering UncertainOil prices edged higher this week, marking their strongest gain in seven days. This upward momentum came despite a somewhat ambiguous outlook for crude itself, suggesting the driving force behind the rise lies elsewhere: positive sentiment in the broader financial markets. Risk-On Rally Lifts Oil The primary factor behind oil's recent rise is the prevailing "risk-on" sentiment dominating global markets. Equity indices, particularly in the United States, have been scaling new highs, with the S&P 500 reaching its 30th record this year. This optimism seems to be spilling over into the commodities market, including oil. Investors, buoyed by the positive performance in equities, are displaying a greater willingness to take on risk, and oil is seen as a potential beneficiary. OPEC+ Cuts and Geopolitical Tensions Offer Underlying Support Beyond the broader market sentiment, a couple of oil-specific factors are also contributing to the price increase. Firstly, the decision by OPEC+, the world's leading oil producer alliance, to extend production cuts has helped to tighten supply and prop up prices. Anxieties surrounding potential disruptions due to geopolitical tensions in major oil-producing regions like the Middle East are also lending some support. Mixed Outlook for Crude: Demand Questions Linger However, the outlook for crude remains somewhat clouded by uncertainties. While the supply side appears relatively stable thanks to OPEC+ intervention, demand remains a question mark. Signs of slowing economic growth in some parts of the world, particularly in Asia, raise concerns about future oil consumption. Data from China, a major consumer of oil, recently indicated weaker-than-expected industrial activity, potentially signaling a softening demand outlook. Additionally, rising gasoline prices in some regions, like India, could dampen consumer spending and lead to lower demand for fuel. The Balancing Act: Weighing Optimism Against Uncertainty The current situation presents a complex picture for oil markets. The positive sentiment in broader financial markets is providing a tailwind for oil prices. However, this is counterbalanced by lingering uncertainties about future demand, particularly in Asia. The net effect of these opposing forces will determine the future trajectory of oil prices. Looking Ahead: Navigating a Volatile Market Oil will likely see continued volatility in oil markets. Investors will be closely monitoring key factors like: • Global economic performance: The health of major economies, particularly China, will significantly influence oil demand. • Monetary policy decisions: Actions by central banks, especially the U.S. Federal Reserve, could impact risk appetite and indirectly affect oil prices. • Geopolitical developments: Events in major oil-producing regions can disrupt supply and cause price spikes. By carefully weighing these factors, market participants can navigate the current uncertainty and make informed decisions regarding oil investments.
FX:USOILLong
by bryandowningqln
Oil Price Find Footing as Inflation Cools, Russia Threatens CutThe global oil market witnessed a balancing act this week, with prices finding temporary stability despite conflicting forces. While data indicating a possible slowdown in US inflation offered some relief, Russia's vow to cut oil production cast a shadow of potential future price hikes. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures, the US benchmark, remained above $78 a barrel, clinging to the gains accrued throughout the week. This stability comes after a period of volatility, with oil prices having fluctuated significantly in recent months due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and concerns about global economic growth. The US Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates at their current level was the primary source of comfort for the market. This decision, coupled with recent signs of cooling inflation, suggests a potential shift in the Fed's monetary policy stance. Earlier concerns about aggressive interest rate hikes to combat inflation had dampened economic activity and raised fears of a recession, potentially leading to a decline in oil demand. The Fed's decision to pause on rate hikes, with the possibility of one cut later in the year, provided a sigh of relief for the oil market. However, this cautious optimism was countered by Russia's announcement of a potential production cut. Russia, a major oil producer, has been a key player in the recent oil price volatility. The ongoing war in Ukraine has disrupted global oil supplies, and Russia has hinted at further reductions in output in retaliation for Western sanctions. This threat of a supply squeeze could push oil prices higher in the coming months, potentially negating the positive sentiment stemming from the Fed's decision. Analysts remain divided on the long-term trajectory of oil prices. Some believe that a global economic slowdown, fueled by rising interest rates and ongoing geopolitical tensions, will eventually lead to a decrease in demand. This, coupled with a potential increase in oil production from other major producers like the US, could bring prices down. However, others warn that the geopolitical risks remain significant. The war in Ukraine shows no signs of abating, and further disruptions to Russian oil exports could trigger another price surge. Additionally, the limited spare production capacity among major producers could make it difficult to compensate for any potential Russian output cuts. The outlook for oil prices in the coming months is thus uncertain. While the Fed's decision and signs of cooling inflation offer some hope for stability, the threat of Russian production cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to pose significant upside risks. Looking beyond the immediate future, the long-term trend for oil prices will likely depend on the pace of the global energy transition. As countries around the world invest in renewable energy sources and push for decarbonization, the demand for oil is expected to decline over time. This could lead to a gradual decrease in oil prices in the long run. However, the transition away from fossil fuels is a complex process, and oil is likely to remain a critical source of energy for many years to come. In conclusion, the global oil market is currently navigating a period of flux. While short-term factors like the Fed's monetary policy and potential Russian production cuts are influencing prices, the long-term trajectory remains uncertain and will depend heavily on the pace of the global energy transition. Consumers and businesses alike should brace for continued volatility in the oil market, with prices likely to remain sensitive to geopolitical developments and economic data releases.
TVC:USOIL
by bryandowningqln
USOIL - Summer demand expectations are supporting pricesReuters stated that the Fed has raised hobby prices sharply in 2022 and 2023 to minimize growing inflation. Rising borrowing fees for customers and corporations ought to gradual financial boom and decrease oil call for. Meanwhile, a robust dollar ought to hose down oil call for via way of means of making greenback-denominated commodities like oil extra costly for holders of different currencies. Commenting at the surprising acceleration in oil costs, analysts at strength consulting company Gelber and Associates stated summer time season call for expectancies are helping costs. Goldman Sachs analysts stated they anticipate Brent oil costs to upward thrust to $86/barrel withinside the 0.33 quarter. In their report, those analysts stated that strong summer time season transportation call for will push the oil marketplace right into a deficit of 1.three million barrels in step with day withinside the 0.33 quarter. Oil costs rose regardless of the greenback growing to a four-week excessive following a pointy decline withinside the euro. Last week, oil costs fell for the 0.33 consecutive week because of worries that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies` (OPEC+) plan to boost a few manufacturing cuts from October might similarly growth supply. Investor interest is presently turning to US purchaser charge index records for May to be launched on June 12, searching out suggestions approximately whilst the Fed can also additionally begin decreasing hobby prices. The marketplace is additionally "waiting" for the consequences of the Fed's two-day coverage assembly beginning on June 12 with the expectancy that americaA Central Bank will preserve hobby prices stable. The marketplace has tempered expectancies for a Fed charge reduce in September following jobs boom records launched ultimate week. According to records from LSEG Financial Company, buyers additionally diminished expectancies approximately the extent of Fed easing this year, with handiest one hobby charge reduce.
TVC:USOILShort
by TheLeader_WOLF
USOIL ANALYSIS (SHORT) (11/06/24)Pretty self explanatory and simple. Using the bias (Bearish) I simply mapped out the last area which created a significant break. Within this area - price should gear towards the demand zone below - however I do acknowledge that price had already reached demand in an earlier period and therefore if price breaks through the POI (For which there will be potential to do so - due to upper imbalance found on a bigger TF), I would seek for an entry point allowing me to ride out the buy.
TVC:USOILShort
by saintprincevvs