Usoilforecast
USOIL afraid of Corona? OPEC tries to support!USOIL trading multiyear @ lows but shown a good jumpy reversal in the week start (March 02, 20), due to the even a great engulfing has been observed.
The lowes occurred due to global slow down fears. The fear is so dense that OPEC was literally forced to cut production which was seen in the major slow down in 2008 - 2009.
As it's been reported that OPEC have already cut the production by 150000 BPD already but looking at the decline in the demand they can increase the cut to 600k to 1M BPD in a desperate try to maintain its prices. As well as hopes are high from the National banks to come forth and try to maintain the oil prices.
Technical analysis:
Though the overall trend in Oil is Southwards, a reversal pattern's been observed and knowing that the current low is a multiyear low there may be optimism around buyers.
The reversal will be confirmed if the chart manages to record one higher low. Anyways due to the downwards momentum and last week's sighted Death cross, sellers may find suitable entries around 49.42 - 52.16 by testing the declining trendline.
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WTI CRUDE OIL - complete analysisWTI trades at a three month high currently, around the 60 psychological value.
From a technical perspective, we want to see the USOIL drop from the resistance given by the descending trend line, all the way to the 0.5 fib level of previous daily impulse which also aligns with previous structure.
Previous Daily High 61.05
Previous Daily Low 60.04
Previous Weekly High 60.46
Previous Weekly Low 58.11
Previous Monthly High 58.76
Previous Monthly Low 54.12
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 60.66
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 60.43
Daily Pivot Point S1 60.04
Daily Pivot Point S2 59.53
Daily Pivot Point S3 59.03
Daily Pivot Point R1 61.05
Daily Pivot Point R2 61.55
Daily Pivot Point R3 62.06
Yesterday, the US API weekly statistical bulletin published positive values with Crude +4.7, Cushing -.3, Gasoline +5.6 and Diesel 3.7. So today from the crude oil inventories a pullback is expected.
However, the longer term trend of the WTI is still bullish, especially from the beginning of 2020, we have a strong fundamental reason for it.
OIL: 2020 PRICE FORECAST UPGRADED ON OPEC+ CUTS, IMPROVED ECONOMIC OUTLOOK – JP MORGAN
17 December 2019, 06:44
The conclusions of the report are as following :
The OPEC, Russia and other producers, a group known as OPEC+, have agreed to cut output by an extra 500,000 barrels a day in the first quarter of 2020, because of the current forecast of next year's end quarters surplus of 0.6 million barrels per day. In conclusion the US investment bank, JP Morgan raised its oil price outlook for 2020. Next year price target is 63.50.
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Comment your view.
oil price developing in a parallel channel approaching the $42.0after the massive selloff from this week, we see that the price is approaching an important support level which is respected multiple times
in history. all stocks and indexes are in deep red numbers and this includes oil too. on the other hand, we know that this selloff has also
an end. from next week, we can expect some reversal signs. personally I expect some little more downside movement to hit the 42$ zone.
watch for potential longs in the $42.00 zone
USOIL and the SHORT ZONEAs we can see the value is falling for the Coronavirus consequences, anyway We also expect the fall (with a possibility of a retest in the uptrend tendence) but the value will continue falling, we also see a good retest in 61% of fibonacci , an evening doji star at the last LH and a strong down tendence
USOIL broke the descending channel already!In the previously published idea, I shared that USOIL made a nosedive and attempting to recover from this loss and it made a double bottom on the daily chart.
This week the asset has broken the downward channel as displayed in the attached chart. and it's riding the upward trend line.
USOIL has also broken the recent strong resistance at $52.12 after testing it several times.
It's likely to test this support again before continuing the bullish rally.
Watch out for the $52.65 - $52.70 price range to be broken!
Cheers!!
WTI Crude ABC Corrective Pattern - Possible Wave 3 Buy SetupCrude Oil fell quite sharply past month due to US-Iran conflict and recent Corona Virus news, there is plenty of support around $50 mark on this market, this is a counter trend trade as I am seeing momentum weakness and convergence around this area so expecting the market to revisit $54 mark.
Trade Safe!
WTI Crude Oil - long term overview WTI Crude Oil touched the bottom support area of 51.70 - 52.40. Started the correction, now we expect one more retest of the strong support creating a lower low and making a double bottom formation.
From a technical perspective, the USOIL has to start the up-move towards the 61.8 fib level. Potential of climbing up to the 63$ per barrel price.
The technical analysis is supported by a fundamental overview of OPEC's policies. For the year 2020, they cut oil production. By the simple rule of supply and demand, target price is upwards.
Now we might see some consolidation in this area. Banks will probably build their longs before the reversal of the trend is confirmed.
We will also start taking smaller volume longs and build more on the accumulation period. The first price target is 59. Overall Target is 63.
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