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Usoilforecast

USOIL Fundamental UpdateUSOIL Fundamental Analysis The president of OPEC mentioning a February meeting with the Russian oil Minister. An emerging meeting could be held as early as this coming week. The question is, what is the real impact of price of a barrel of sweet crude with so many moving parts across a trillion-dollar global supply chain. The president of OPEC mentioning a February meeting with the Russian oil Minister. An emerging meeting could be held as early as this coming week. The question is, what is the real impact of price of a barrel of sweet crude with so many moving parts across a trillion-dollar global supply chain. Fundamental headwinds include the impact on jet fuel demand and tensions in the middle east (Libya). What's to come: OPEC and the Saudi Oil minister wants to prove to the public right now that they are reacting proactively and display an earner willingness to react. Output will be slashed. This was seen as the company went public back in December. As mentioned, Libya has just shut down an 800,000 barrel/day pipeline. This compensates easily for the demand impact stemmed from the virus outbreak that the markets ignored; which is the issues on the supply side of Oil. Sentiment is so negative, that the market is fixated on the demand headlines and ignore issues on the supply side. Libyan production being offline for the last 2 weeks, has kept over 2 million barrels off of the market. When Libya went offline, it was assumed this was political. I think this shows something much worse, which is a theatre of war and thus a destruction to infrastructure. Jet fuel prices in Asia are crashing. The question forward is, what’s the timeframe for the Coronavirus? The U.S. rig count is at multi year lows, since last summer. At the current rig count level, the industry can’t grow. It would be at best a flatline, and probably a decline. A catalyst needs to come desperately, and this catalyst would be a spike in oil prices. Unless oil prices recover from current levels, there will be a structural shortage of WTI for years to come. Bias is now long for both fundamentals and technical for WTI going forward this Q1 21:26:24 (UTC) Sat Feb 1, 2020
TVC:USOILLong
by TayFx
1
USOIL EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change is included in the weekly report issued by the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy. It presents the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US companies. EIA includes this report into Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) along with other information on supplies, stocks and prices for crude oil and principal petroleum products. It is a reliable source of current information on the energy industry used by manufacturers, press, policy makers, consumers and analysts, as well as state and local authorities. The report data describe supply and disposition of crude oil and petroleum products in the United States and large US regions. The report is compiled based on data submitted by all companies, which can store at least 1000 barrels of crude oil. They include: All pipeline companies (local and state), including interstate, domestic and local pipelines Crude oil producers (oil companies) Terminal operators Crude oil storers (except refineries) Companies transporting Alaskan crude oil by water in other states and the District of Columbia Increase of US crude oil stocks can indicate a decrease in demand for crude oil or increase in production. Such an increase negatively affects global oils prices, though it is a short-term effect. A downward trend is only formed in the market if crude oil stocks increase steadily for several weeks in a row.
TVC:USOILLong
by q12398
1
USOIL 8 weeks cycle phenomenon. This is an interesting analysis to point out last year's relative predictability that each cycle is about 8 weeks and a bullish cycle lasts around 16 weeks The last 52 Weeks was an (almost too perfect) sideways movement between the upper(64.00) and lower(51.00) bands. Three time the top hit 64.00 and trend changed direction. Likewise, Three times the 51 was hit and changed direction. The cycles are almost exactly 8 week cycles (green halve-circles). Every time the bottom was hit, the next bottom was hit in 8 weeks. Almost like a loop. Every time the next 8-week cycle is NOT hit, there is another upwards movement from that to rally to the 64.00 mark. This clearly was the trading range for 2019. There were 3 downward candles before this selloff and it fits the pattern of previous selloffs (possibly signaling the end of this cycle) This happened for the full hear in 2019. Also, we know that USA is claiming to be supply in their oil needs completely for the first time. This can make them immune to global Oil price manipulation and a more predictable oil supply. (and price) The attached graph predicts an upwards movement, but since the lowest point on the last cycle did NOT hit the bottom, one of 3 possibilities my play out. 1. The price can go to 51.00 Resistance changing into a bullish trend afterwards like the previous 3 times. Call orders must be created for this price with Target 1 - 60.00 Target 2 – 65.49 and worst case scenario a sell order below 48.00 with target 42.30 2. The fact that the last week closed off and did NOT hit 51 may indicate upwards movement from there either as a retraced movement to about 54.60(1-week cycle), but almost guaranteed will find follow through over 8 weeks to hit resistance around 64.00’ish and repeat or go all the way to 66.28. P.S My Trades setup is as follows for the next 16 weeks: - I’m opening 2 buy options both 15% of my budget at 54.24 with target 1 64.25 and target 2 74.22 - I’m opening 3 x 20 % size trades with entry 51.00 exit 1 = 56.93 2=64.25 and 3 = 74.22 I'm calling a higher low current bearish levels(54.00), but it wont hit 51.00 before going up. It's not looking like it's going under 51.00 again this year. Let me know what you think in the comments, please.
TVC:USOILLong
by Coinswop
1
Simple Technical Buy Set-up in USOILAfter a decent correction, USOIL is now showing signs of consolidation at the 100D EMA. Besides, it has also bounced off the ascending Trend Line. In addition, we have a nice Doji candle after the recent drop. All these technical factors point to a rise in USOIL in the coming days. So, if price manages to stay above 58, I would be looking to buy with 63 as my initial target. If price breaks the area that I have highlighted in my chart, then long entries will not be safe anymore.
FX:USOILLong
by YourLazyTrader
1
USOIL trade idea on H5, potential H&S pattern formation!Plan : wait for prices to bounce off horizontal resistance --> wait for the rejection candle pattern to form e.g. bearish engulfing , pinbar etc --> SELL **Disclaimer** the content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of assisting traders to make independent investment decisions. Traders!! if you like my ideas and do take the same trade like i do, please write it in comment so we can manage the trade together. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Thank you for your support ;) GWBFX
TVC:USOILShort
by GWBFX