Crude oil market analysisMarket performance
Freight rates rose in March and calmed down in May. In June, freight rates from the Middle East to China fell by 0.5 yuan month-on-month. July was also sluggish. At the same time, the gross profit margin of refining fell by 10-30% year-on-year, affecting the enthusiasm of refineries to purchase crude oil.
Market risk analysis
The US election may affect energy policy. The Democratic and Republican parties have different energy policies. In addition, the US Meteorological Corporation predicts that there will be 25 storms in the Atlantic this year, which may affect oil production and transportation
To sum up, my personal analysis shows that the crude oil market will remain low in the second half of the year.
Usoiloutlook
USOIL ( BREAKOUT DEMAND ZONE ) (4H)USOIL
HELLO TRADERS
Tendency , the price is under bearish pressure , after breakout demand zone .
TURNING LEVEL : the price of turning level around 76.96 , until the price trading below this level reach a support level (1) , but if the price breaking this level reach resistance level (1) .
RESISTANCE LEVEL (1) : this level around 80.49 , for reach this resistance the price it will be breaking turning level .
RESISTANCE LEVEL (2) : around 82.83 , for reach this level it will be breaking by open 4h or 1h candle above resistance level (1)
SUPPORT LEVEL (1) : as long the price trading below turning level reach this level around 75.05.
SUPPORT LEVEL (2) : this level around 72.46, for reach this level the price will be breaking by open 1h or 4h candle below support level (1) .
CORRECTIVE : the price may be corrective turning level at 76.96 , before drooping .
TARGET LEVEL :
RESISTANCE LEVEL : 80.49 , 82.83 .
SUPPORT LEVEL : 75.05 ,72.46 .
Don't sell oil easily. Very risky
The trading opportunities for oil are not very big at present, but mainly fluctuate within a narrow range. After the news boosted strength. The price is still fluctuating around 81. I made a profit by buying oil prices around 80.7 in the morning, and the U.S. market is about to begin, judging from the 1-hour trend chart. The trend is still mainly bullish. MA is also supported.
If the U.S. market falls back around 80.7, I think there is still a chance to buy, and we will trade based on the timing and conditions.
Easily make money for you with crude oil trend analysis
Crude oil prices fell back from highs and will bottom out and rebound
From yesterday to today, the overall trend of crude oil fell back after rising, with $80.5 as the resistance level and $77.6 as the support level.
The U.S. Department of Energy announced the purchase of approximately 3 million barrels of oil for delivery in September to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve;
Attacks by the Houthi armed forces in the Red Sea region have also blocked oil shipments and disrupted tanker activities;
EIA report: The four-week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 19.499 million barrels per day, a decrease of 1.25% from the same period last year;
Combining the above data and events, I believe that the current crude oil price will fluctuate around $77.8 and then show an upward trend.
Recommendation: Go long around $78
TP:79.5
SL:77
Listen to my signal and advocate seeking victory in stability and not making rash advances.
Comments welcome
Today's crude oil trading analysis
Today's crude oil trading analysis
Yesterday, crude oil continued to fluctuate upwards, and the second time it tested high, it looked around 80.7, but it has not yet formed a breakthrough. The recovery range in late trading was within 80.0, and the daily closing line had an upper shadow line, which is still in the stage of shock and rise. At this stage, it is being set The upper track of Linguan is oscillating and is expected to break through the upper track.
From the daily chart, crude oil is expected to continue to fluctuate upward along the upward trend line in the short term. In the short term, buy at low prices.
Recommendation: Buy crude oil at $79.6
TP 80.5
SL 78.6
USOIL: Continue to Go Long Next WeekHello, friends. I'm Luke, a former champion trader in multiple regions, and I'm delighted to join TradingView to share my strategies with you every day, hoping to provide assistance.
This week, I've analyzed that crude oil is expected to continue rising to the range of $78-80 per barrel. Today, it has reached a high of $77.5 per barrel, and I remain optimistic about the future upward movement of crude oil. If it retraces to the range of $73-75 per barrel, consider going long once again!
I update my market analysis daily and also send accurate trading signals within Luke's small group to help stabilize and sustain profitability in your accounts. Don't miss out!
usoil: Expected to Rise to $80 in the FutureHello friends, I'm Luke, a former champion trader in multiple regions. I'm excited to join TradingView and share my strategies with you every day, hoping to provide assistance.
Crude oil has established a bottom around $70, and those who bought in heavily near this level have already reaped substantial profits. Personally, I anticipate oil to stabilize around $80 in the coming month, with any further declines seen as buying opportunities.
Key support levels to watch are $72-$70. Buying can be considered upon reaching this area, with target levels focused on $76-$78-$80.
I update market analysis daily and also send accurate trading signals within Luke's small group to help ensure the long-term stability and profitability of your account. Don't miss out!
USOIL: Technical analysis and operational strategy
Us EIA crude oil inventories for the week to November 10 were released yesterday afternoon, showing a rise of 3.6 million barrels to 421.9 million barrels, expectations for a rise of 1.793 million barrels, the previous value of 13.869 million barrels, negative for oil prices. With global demand for crude oil slowing and supply increasing, some analysts believe that Saudi Arabia may extend the voluntary additional production cut of 1 million barrels per day into January or even longer, and the OPEC+ meeting next weekend (November 26) needs to be closely watched. Crude oil yesterday bardo line back. The early week of the rising space back up nearly half, and closed at the low level, the daily line to weaken again, the previous rebound was only a flash in the pan. 4-hour chart a wave of negative line reversion. Continued the previous trading day's high fall, fell below the middle rail to weaken, but also broke the small step shock to rise low, 4-hour chart empty, the rebound at the beginning of the week as a correction to confirm the resistance, but also just confirmed the previous low 79.80 area resistance, with the Asian market close down, Europe and the United States will further see the weak down.
WTI Crude Oil Handling Recommendations:
Strategy 1: Rebound 77.5-77.2 near the short entry, stop loss 0.6 points, the target 75.6-75.2 line;
Strategy two: Callback 75.2-75.6 near multiple single entry, stop loss 0.6 points, the target 77.0-77.5 line.
If you are confused about trading, please join me, I believe you will have a great harvest!
Crude Oil: Today’s Trend Strategy
Crude oil continues to rise in the direction of the trend. Any intraday adjustment before reaching the new target of 91.50 is an opportunity to continue to be bullish in the short term. Of course, since the overall increase has been huge enough, the current space above is limited. Another one is in this round. It is the end of the rise, so it is not advisable to be overly bullish.
The main reason why crude oil is bullish is that the upward trend of wave 3 and wave 5 is still continuing, and there is still a slight retracement on the way, and it is still bullish. Now it has been subdivided again and has entered the final peak moment of wave 3 of wave 5-5. Crude oil pressure is 89.40~90.20, support is 88.40~87.90
For crude oil operations, it is recommended to wait for 89.10 to buy, with a target of 89.1~91.50. If it rises directly to 91.50, we will look at the pressure signals before deciding whether to buy the top.
US OIL / WTI Analysis 10Sep2023The movement of US oil has been very bullish in recent months, it seems to be seen to be peak for a few moments ahead. If you look at the Elliot Wave series that occurs, Wave 5 is likely to end. If you want to Short, it's better to wait for prices to fall to the reversal and retrace areas.
Crude oil: back above 80 again
Oil prices rebounded at the opening and remained stable. On the whole, whether it is the Fed’s interest rate hike expectations cooling, the dollar’s fall, the rise in U.S. stocks, or the possible impact of U.S. hurricanes on supply, coupled with a sharp decline in crude oil inventories and geopolitical tensions, they all tend to support oil prices. Technical The short-term bullish signal has also strengthened, and oil prices are expected to retest the resistance near the August high of 84.87.
The trend of crude oil daily chart is currently stable above the short-term moving average, and today it is stable again above the middle rail line. The market outlook will rely on the middle rail line and the short-term moving average to support the bullish rebound. Below, focus on the support around $81.00 and $81.5. In terms of operational thinking, the main focus is to go long and be bullish.
Go long near 81.20, stop loss: 80.70: target 83.00
Crude oil: There is still room for today's strategy to rise
In the U.S. market, WTI crude oil rose and closed down, once rising to $80.7/barrel, but failed to hold the $80 mark, closing down 0.03%, at $79.94/barrel, due to the threat of tropical storms in the U.S. Gulf crude oil production and news that Saudi Arabia may extend the production cut time and other benefits and rise, but the Fed's further interest rate hike worries limit oil prices,
Therefore, oil prices continued to run on the strong side at the beginning of the session. Overall, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates has risen, and increasing demand concerns have limited oil price gains. However, tropical storms in the US Gulf Coast may cause supply disruptions to bring support. Before this week's non-agricultural data, oil prices may remain volatile around US$80/barrel. In the short term, pay attention to the impact of API data and market uncertainties on oil prices.
Short near 81.60, stop loss: 82.20, target 80.60
First step back around 80.40 to go long, stop loss: 79.90, target to be determined
Crude oil: continue to maintain decline
I have encountered many investors who are still losing money and are confused. There is no fixed market, and there are no fixed investors. They need to continuously learn and adjust to integrate into the market. Years of experience in the industry and a caring guidance team will accompany you on your investment journey and provide you with solid investment ideas. The market is endless, the market is constantly evolving, and the transaction will never stop. Although we can't do everything in every wave of market, we can seize the ever-changing opportunities, treat the market with an objective and calm attitude, and analyze the market , wait for the market, and make full preparations for each transaction. If a worker wants to do a good job, he must first sharpen his weapon. It is not that trading is better than trading.
WTI crude oil October futures closed at US$78.89/barrel, falling below US$80/barrel for the first time in a week, down 0.9% on the day. The EIA report released earlier today was mixed. Crude inventories fell by 6.1 million barrels, but investors also took a bearish look at the report, which showed U.S. crude production rose to a three-year high of 12.8 million barrels per day. Also, implied gasoline demand was below 9 mb/d for the sixth of the past seven weeks, a weak sign for gasoline demand in what should be the peak summer driving season
Go short around 79.20 on the rebound, stop loss: 79.80, target at 77.00
Crude oil, today's strategy is bearish
Crude oil is now clearly in a bearish trend. The k-line starts to exert force from the upper rail, the big Yin line breaks through the middle rail, and the k-line goes all the way south to the lower rail. At present, the k-line directly dives downward, and the Bollinger Band track is also opened downward. The opening is gradually enlarged, the lower triple bottom is near 79.0, the big Yinxian will inevitably break through, empty, 79.0 air
The market continues to consolidate weakly in the bottom area, and the overall oscillation at the support level of the trend line has now converged. We can clearly see from the attached picture below that the bottom area signal has appeared yesterday, and the bottom area in the early stage is relatively stable. In terms of a wave of rebound, yesterday’s intraday reappearance is relatively a rebound. In the short term, we can focus on the pressure. Only when we recover the lost ground will we go up further. , the specific suggestions are as follows:
Operating strategy: crude oil 79.0 empty, take profit 78.5-78.0,
Crude oil 78.0 into,
Crude oil: bottoming trend again
The main reason for crude oil to look down is: the rebound for several consecutive days touched the pressure and fell back. Or a more bullish view is the sub-wave 2 adjustment in the midst of 3 waves and 5 rises. Crude oil pressure 80.65~81.10, support 79.70~79~78.60.
Crude oil operation is recommended to enter at 81.1, take profit at 79.6, target at 79.2~79.5, and take profit at 80.3 (the point may be revised as the market changes during the session, and the real-time strategy shall prevail)
USOIL: Will usher in a new wave of decline
Crude oil rebounded slightly and fell again. The idea is to place an empty order at the resistance position of 83-83.2. Friends who read the article may not necessarily wait for the point, but members and friends have kept up. When there is a short signal, decisively enter the market with an empty order. The current price is around 81.3 You can go up a little bit first. This is the difference between the idea of the article and the specific entry. The support resistance is that area. The specific entry depends on the real-time changes in the market. When there is a signal, you can enter the market at 81.0-81.3.
Strategy 81.0-81.3 enter long 82.0-82.2 take profit or enter decline
Crude oil: high, short-term first look at the fall
Judging from the current price action, crude oil bulls have encountered a slight resistance, indicating that the market may start to weaken. After experiencing a wave of unilateral gains, the crude oil market was challenged at the 85 level, which may be due to a certain degree of exhaustion in the market, which led to a slight correction. Despite market concerns about an economic slowdown, demand remains resilient, and the fundamentals of the crude oil market look much more optimistic than a month ago. At the same time, due to OPEC+ and Saudi production cuts, supply is decreasing, and short-term crude oil prices may hit 85 again.
When the price encountered obstacles near the upper track and fell back, the price rose twice and failed to stand on the 85 line. There are signs of a short-term fall. The price fall is just a normal correction in the process of rising, and it does not mean that the direction is reversed. Watch the market The price retraces slightly, and there is a risk of continuing to go lower. In the short term, we will first see a wave of decline, and then continue to continue the upward trend. The price fell below the first-line support of the middle rail, and there is a possibility of further decline. In the short-term within the day, we need to pay attention to the support near 82.5 below. Once the price falls below this position, it is possible to step back on the first-line 81.8. In terms of short-term operation ideas, we should first take a wave of prices Stepping back, focus on the resistance in the 82.8-83 area above.
Operating strategy: rebound in the 82.8-83 area and short, stop loss 83.4, target 81.8
US Oil SPOT | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upIn July, we witnessed a remarkable surge, with oil prices soaring over 14%, marking the most substantial monthly percentage increase since January last year. A perfect blend of tighter supply and surging demand triumphed over concerns about potential interest rate hikes and lingering inflation, igniting economic growth prospects.
Adding to the excitement for bulls, OPEC leader Saudi Arabia made a game-changing announcement on Thursday. They have decided to extend their voluntary oil output cut of one million barrels per day (bpd) for an additional month, spanning into September. And that's not all! Russia chimed in, harmonizing with the Saudi move, announcing a hefty reduction of 300,000 barrels per day from its exports. The bulls are certainly in for a merrier ride!
The US oil market is embracing this momentum with open arms, hinting at a potential ride up to $86 before facing any noteworthy resistance. But the big question looms—can we seize this golden opportunity and capitalize on this bullish move in the exciting week ahead?
US Oil Technical Analysis:
In this video, we delve deep into the 4-hour timeframe, dissecting key supply and demand zones to uncover invaluable insights into the potential trajectory of price action for USOILSPOT in the week ahead.
Join us as we delve into a comprehensive technical analysis of the US oil market, exploring trends, key levels, and chart patterns that hold the key to unlocking profitable opportunities. Don't miss out on this golden opportunity to elevate your understanding of the future path of USOILSPOT. Stay ahead of the curve and gain a distinct competitive edge by immersing yourself in this price-action-based technical analysis.
Disclaimer Notice:
Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy.
It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances.
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Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
Crude oil: Crude oil unexpectedly fell, but there is still a new
From the online point of view, there are signs of closure. The price has retreated sharply after encountering resistance near the upper rail. At present, it can only be regarded as an adjustment during the previous rise. The price will not just go down directly. It is expected that the short-term will be around 80 The dollar is consolidating around. With an opening in 4 hours, a big negative line directly fell below the first-line support of the middle rail, and it is currently stabilizing near the lower rail. The short-term price may test the low point again. It is necessary to pay attention to the support at this position. If it can be held, the short-term price will go up There will be a chance to rebound again. The operation idea is to look at a wave of rebound after the price retreats and stabilizes.
Operation strategy: call back the 78.3-79 area to do long, stop loss at 78.4, target 80.5 and directly empty
Share this point of view with my friends, I hope you can make more money and realize your dreams. Friends in need can keep up
Crude oil: bulls are strong, step back to 80 and go long directl
Crude oil has been in a unilateral upward trend, and there is no need to say more about the bullish trend. If you don’t make a move, you will miss it. Now it falls back to 80.3 and goes long directly. There is still more than 200 points of space from the pressure of the high point of 83.5. Although The space is not very large, but the odds of winning are very high. If you fall back and go long, it is almost a market to bend down to pick up money!
But the overall trend remains unchanged, and the decline is just to give us a better point to go long. As can be seen from the trend in the figure, the nearest support level is 80.8, which is the moving average support of MA60. The lowest trend line support can be traced back to 80.3. You can do more, and the goal is to look at the high point of 82.1!
USOIL: SELL around 71.8, short-term within the day to see 72.3-6SELL71.8, see the 70.5 line, just break through 72.3 and stop loss. Generally speaking, the oil price range is 72.3-69.9 within the day! If you break the upper and lower support levels, change your strategy and follow up!
Intraday strategy follow-up is closer. . .
USOIL: Resistance level 72.5, trading strategy between 70.4~71.8On the whole, today's crude oil price should focus on the 71.8 high point and 72.5 resistance for the upper resistance, and the 70.4-69.5 support for the lower part. During the shock period, you can sell high and buy low, and swing trading can maximize today's benefits
USOil Tumbles to $28: Path Predicted by Fibonacci ClusteringMy Fibonacci Clustering model reveals a potential downturn in USOIL prices to as low as $28 per barrel. This observation is rooted in the unique properties of Fibonacci sequences - their self-similar and repetitive nature often mirrors price action in a wide array of financial markets, including commodities such as oil.
Historical evidence supports the plausibility of oil prices plummeting to such lows. The oil price slump of 2016, which saw USOIL drop to below $30, demonstrated how market oversupply, geopolitical tensions, and shifting energy policies can dramatically impact oil prices.
Bear in mind that oil markets are influenced by a multitude of factors - supply-demand dynamics, geopolitical events, economic indicators , and even climatic conditions, among others. Thus, while the Fibonacci Clustering points to a potential downturn, this is just one piece of the puzzle.