Usoilprediction
Crude: Time to Close the Long Position! Expected to Fall
Oil had a very nice rally (30%) since November, also the OPEC+ decision of cutting supply of 2M barrels/day has pushed the prices to $60 level.
From April the Saudi is planning to increase the crude oil production to 12.3M Barrels/Day. The Increased supply, reduced demand from China, Oil entering in to the strong technical resistance area etc. factors expect to contribute to pushing the OIL prices down to $54’ish area in the coming weeks!
USOIL MARKET BREAKDOWNHere I breakdown the trade I took and the overall market structure. You can also see what I think is next to come for the pair.
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Area of interest: $60-$61
Trade execution level: $60.60
Overall bias: Short
USOIL - Far level retest.The price is returned for the retest level the previous touch of the level more than 1 year ago. Moreover, a strict number of false breakdowns.
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US OIL is now BearishThis has been very steadily grinding downwards and is now entering a Bearish environment again. I think this will reject off the lower trendline that it broke yesterday, it is just below this now. From here I have set 3 targets for TP that can either be held or swing traded. If this does reject the trendline mentioned the SL can be just above this. I do think this could drop even further as indicated by the Fibonacci at 0.382 ($46.19) but it is very risky to hold a short and expect it to reach there.
US OIL SHORT UPDATEMy previous bias of 54.20-40 still stands for oil, I mentioned in all the previous videos that the current trading range will be choppy and we will see consolidation.
Everything going to plan so far with oil, looking to take shorts at the liquidation zone. This is my last post until my shorts are activated, do not get caught out shorting at 53.80.
Biden is pro green and anti oil so you can only imagine the hits oil will take.
US OIL at Important SupportIf this can break the support level we are currently at this could have a big fall. IF it does break then we can look to short with a target of 49.30. I have been looking for this to have a big correction for some time. Other key target levels are at Fibonacci levels 0.382 and 0.5 which also align with key structure. First we need to break current support though as oil has been very strong and may resist this.
Oil Hedge Buy OrderOil Long Position
Entry: $53.07
TP & RR: $54.12 (2.49)
Stop Loss: $52.76
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
If you followed my trade idea from yesterday, then you should have an open short position at $53.55. I was expecting a lower high, but instead, the price formed a double top. Our SL wasn't hit.
Anyway, I believe a new uptrend channel has formed and in order to secure your profits from the short yesterday, I suggest moving your Stop Loss as well as considering a hedge long position. Should this trade idea prove valid, you will be piggybacking on the small uptrend until we reach the upper channel. If it turns out to be invalid, then part of your short order will cover the losses for this long. Stop Loss is under the lower trendline and the target is set at the upper one.
OIL ON THE DECLINE - BACK TO 50% DECLINE @$32Oil has started to form a double top around the $53 region with a key fib level of 0.786 @ $51 being broken recently and the price will most definitely return back to it. I'm anticipating a big drop, either immediately or via a delayed move back down to the 0.618 fib via H&S which if broken could see a drop to the 0.5 fib @ $32 acting as strong support. With the pandemic ceasing to let up and the new strains emerging, aviation being severely limited and Biden who is keen to deviate away from oil going forwards, there is only so much a vaccine and OPEC cuts can do but having said that, I still have my shorts open from $46 which haven't gone to plan. With a new short at $52 opened, I am hoping the long-term awaited correction will occur. Leave a like if you agree or feel free to comment. Happy trading all!