Usoilprediction
CL Monthly Technical Outlook - 9th July 2016From a technical perspective, the oil price has turned quite interesting since the start of a new trading month. The chart below shows the monthly rolling oil contract chart where June’s price action closed in a doji. It gains significance following three straight months of gains. The monthly Stochastics also shows the hidden bearish divergence currently playing out, as prices form a lower (June) high at $51.66 and the higher Stochastics while, the higher (May 2015) high at $62.51 and the subsequent lower high in the Stochs.
In the near term, oil prices could remain range bound within 48/49 and 44/45 levels.
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USOIL Choose short entry 54, SL -55.00 It has been quite long that we did not do any OIL trade
since the last time break out(52.5).
But on 23th Feb I found a structure that has reach pressure zone.
And we tried to sell @54.7,and closed @53.5,got 120pips profit.
54.00 is the previous support and now become resistance.
Choose short entry here, SL above 55.00
Aim 51.5 !
I hold a point:Good charts does not more words to explain! Good luck!
The process of losing all margin in generalThe process of losing all margin in general:
1 the first few deals are profitable, usually at 1pips to 10pips
2 traders feel good, I think the correct rate is 100%
3 start a new transaction, in the case of 100% confidence, no longer set SL, and then began to float loss.
USOIL - 3TH WAVE IN PROCESS? (Other perspective)Third WAVE is trying to take shape but fundamentals don´t help.
If good news take presence in the next days or weeks, we can see the 3th and 4th wave.
And the correction of 3th wave probably will be very short because 1th wave is very long.
See what happen!
USOIL SHORT: OPEN THE GATESAfter the Daily Key Reversal last week which also helped form a doji on the WEEKLY, I am convinced that from this week and for the following 3-4 oil will go down. RSI and STOCHRSI have topped on the weekly and are reversing as well as the MACD.
My first target is $48 and then $44-42.5
Bulls are you there?!?!!After almost 3 weeks playing games around the 50 area oil did a great down rally and now near a major support area. In that area we have also the daily 200 MA coming from below and a minor TL and it looks like prices already reacting on that.
So how to do this trade? well i will be looking for bullish evidence as divergence on RSI we have some already, Pinbar or engulfing candle. A double bottom and divergence would be wonderful! Then you can always do it more safe and enter long IF and when price close above the 20 MA on 4H and you enter next market candle.
Like if you agree, follow and support please!
USOIL room to go downUSOIL has reached a major resistance at $52 and given that all indicators show that USOIL is currently overbought, I expect some downward movement to previous local maximum $50-49. The 200ema MACD though shows further possibility for upward movement, that's why I set my stance to neutral for the time being and stand by my previous analysis suggesting that oil will go higher in the first 2 quarters of 2017.
Don't miss the remaining opportunities.
We had a 13 days crazy run again and we got a bearish engulf again. I think this time we will pull back to 0.382 again. Here is my reason:
1, we had a repeatable history before, we hit the low, and rise a bit and rally on OPEC meetings. Exactly the same game OPEC has on us. The last time to retrace to 0.382, this time we do. Also take a look at that price, this is where the monster rally begins. The big guys built position before and rallied there, profit at the top and sell also for big profit. They have a lot of power to sell as long as the price is above 46 in this case.
2, the technical chart let everybody sell, overbought in every where. Retails would just get scared. Those who don't, are idiots.
3, there is on immediate impulse for OIL. Rumors will come out because Nov meeting is too far away. They will repeat the same story again. You know the US newspaper are nor free. They are controlled by big money. They are shameless. They can sell their parent, wife, child and soul to appeal money. They would repeat that OPEC has given us to much promise while no actions indeed.
4, the OIL stockpile will rise. We are fortunate enough to have 4(or 5, I forget it) OIL drawback in EIA. It is time to rise because the decade strong hurricane will suppress a lot OIL consuming. You know the hurricane goes to Florida not Texas. I think supply remains.
5, the EMAs. The only EMA I see useful here for OIL is 50EMA as a support(actually it is more complex.). Check it, it is 46!!! What a surprise, right?
6, the breakout in Thursday is a fake! Without a great news, the green candle attack the 50 is the greatest opportunity to sell the OIL. We will not get a lot of power up, it is very obvious.
Based on those 6 reasons, I sold 20% of OIL at Wednesday, then 80% of OIL at Thursday. And I built 20% short position on Thursday and short 80% on Friday.
Disclaim: I am not an expert on trading. You can see I didn't post any. I had a fulltime job (not trading) which makes me enjoy and nice money. I trade because I love the way market works. I feel encouraged when my idea is where the market will go. Post for interest. Let me know if I make critical mistakes in my analysis.
Short it the safe way!I think we now have a better chance to short oil!
It reversed on major resistance, crossed the trend line and the 50 EMA. You can sell the correction or the bearish flag. Or you can sell the failure of resistance retest. This is in my view the safest way to short Oil on this level.
OIL SELL TRADEON THE DAILY WE HAVE A STRUCTURE WHERE PRICE HAS BOUNCED BACK FROM THE 43.00 FIB LEVEL.
ALSO THERE IS A SQUEEZE MOMENTUM PATTERN WHERE PRICE WILL MOST LIKELY FALL TO PROFIT TARGET 40, 8 AND PROFIT TARGET 33.63.
ENTER TRADE JUST BELOW THE 43 FIB LEVEL WITH A STOP JUST ABOVE 44 LEVEL.
PRICE SHOULD AFTER THAT TEST THE RESISTANCE TREND LINE AND FALL TO
PROFIT TARGET 1 40.80
PROFIT TARGET 2 38
PROFIT TARGET 3 33.63
AFTER THE BREAK OF EACH PROFIT TARGET DOUBLE UP ON POSITION.