Recent correlation breakdown between $USOIL and $DXYUsually, market watchers will say if the Dollar index TVC:DXY is down then commodities like Crude Oil and Gold should outperform. But recent market events have invalidated this assessment. Since 2022 we see that there is a correlation breakdown between TVC:USOIL and $DXY. These 2 indexes have been moving in tandem recently. In 2025 we saw a massive sale in the TVC:DXY and a similar downturn in the US Dollar index. With TVC:DXY below 100 and TVC:USOIL recently below 60 $, these 2 indexes are clearly indicating a US recession with low Oil demand.
IN this chart we see that the next key support levels in TVC:USOIL is 54 $. If we go below 54 $ then the next level to watch will be 35 $. That will be a recessionary scenario last seen during COVID lows. That can bring down the TVC:DXY to 90 levels. All those will indicate a deep recession which is not my base case scenario. My assessment we will see TVC:USOIL @ 55 $ and TVC:DXY @ 95 and then we will hover around those levels.
Verdict: TVC:USOIL can touch 55 $ if TVC:DXY touches 95.
