USOIL - Potential short !!Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on USOIL.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bearish market structure from daily timeframe perspective, so I look only for short position. I want price to go a little bit higher to fill the imbalance and then to reject from bearish order block + psychological level 79.00.
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Usoilshort
Crude oil continues to bearish pressureTechnical analysis of crude oil
Daily resistance 74.2, support below 72.7
Four-hour resistance 73.7-74.2, support below 72-71
Crude oil operation suggestions: Crude oil continued the recent extremely weak short-term unilateral downward rhythm yesterday, with the Asian and European sessions showing a downward trend, and the US session suppressed and fluctuated below the 73.5 mark.
The overall price continued the recent unilateral short-term downward rhythm. Today's upper resistance is around 73.7-74.2. Today's rebound relies on this position to continue the main short-term bearish trend. The short-term oil price short-term weak dividing line focuses on the 74.2 mark. Any rebound before the daily level breaks through and stands on this position is a short-selling opportunity, and keep trading with the trend.
SELL:74.2 near SL:74.50
SELL:73.7 near SL:74.20
Technical analysis only provides trading direction!
World oil prices are in the process of accumulationWorld oil fees extended 2% at the buying and selling consultation on June 6, after the European Central Bank (ECB) determined to reduce hobby fees, elevating hopes that americaA Federal Reserve (Fed) will comparable action.
Meanwhile, ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, called OPEC+, reassured traders that the ultra-modern oil output settlement should alternate relying at the situation. into the marketplace.
At the quit of this consultation, Brent North Sea crude oil charge extended through 1.forty six USD, equal to 1.86%, to 79.87 USD/barrel. The charge of US mild candy oil (WTI) extended through 1.forty eight USD, equal to 2%, to 75.fifty five USD/barrel.
On June 6, the ECB carried out the primary hobby charge reduce on account that 2019, mentioning development in pushing lower back inflation, however caution of inflationary strain withinside the Copper Area. Euro (Eurozone) continues.
Specifically, the ECB diminished hobby fees through 25 foundation points, to 3.75%, after maintaining hobby fees unchanged from October 2023.
Lower gas charges and easing post-pandemic deliver constraints have helped push inflation right all the way down to 2.6% withinside the 20 nations that use the euro, from 10% on the quit of 2022.
Investors are actually much less sure than they had been some weeks in the past that inflation has fallen sufficient for the ECB to adopt a large-scale economic coverage easing cycle. In americaA, economists expect the Fed will reduce hobby fees in September 2024.
The range of Americans submitting preliminary unemployment claims rose closing week and hard work charges rose much less withinside the first area of 2024 than forecast, the Labor Department stated. While this indicates americaA hard work marketplace is cooling, it's miles not going to spark off the Fed to begin slicing hobby fees.
Meanwhile, buying and selling company Trafigura`s leader economist Saad Rahim stated OPEC+'s choice to steadily raise a few manufacturing cuts, blended with sturdy gas supplies, had driven oil fees down. reduced withinside the beyond few sessions.
Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman stated on June 6 that OPEC+ should pause or opposite the growth in manufacturing if it reveals that the marketplace isn't sturdy sufficient./.
USOIL SHORT
The price may rise to $82 but could also fall to about $70.
101.9 million barrels of oil will be consumed worldwide per day.
By next year, the oil markets appear to be oversupplied.
Highlights
Lower Russian output and more demand brought on by China's reopening could help oil prices.
Low demand and a bleak macroeconomic outlook for China
When the Energy Information Administration releases its inventory figures on Wednesday, more oil-related information will be available.
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**First Scenario - Long:**
Initial Target: $80.90
Entry: $79.08
Stoploss: $77.47
**Second Scenario - Short:**
Initial Target: $74
Entry: $78.34
Stoploss: $79.2
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After a long wait, I am currently waiting for this pair to give me my confirmation for a Short position (Data)
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Take into consideration:
It appears that the market has settled in a range of $79.44 to $76.86, with the 7.68 retracement level above the latter being significant.
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NFA
DYOR
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Good Luck!
⚠️Caution: Just because I've set my buy and sell position Settings or drawn direction lines on my chart doesn't indicate I've opened a position or am obsessed with a particular bias. This is only a forecast; I don't trade when the price reaches my level; I have rules of engagement. Perhaps the most crucial element is 🆘RISK MANAGEMENT🆘.
OPEC+ Lowers Its Sights: Farewell to $100 Oil?The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, appear to be waving goodbye to their long-held pursuit of $100-a-barrel oil. This strategic shift marks a significant change for the oil cartel, which has traditionally aimed to manipulate production levels to influence global oil prices.
A New Reality Sets In
For years, OPEC+ has strived to maintain a $100 price tag for a barrel of crude. However, the rise of the American shale industry, a technological marvel that unlocked vast domestic oil reserves in the United States, threw a wrench into their plans. This newfound production glut significantly impacted OPEC+'s ability to control oil prices through production cuts.
In a recent meeting, OPEC+ acknowledged this new reality. Instead of clinging to the $100 dream, they announced a gradual increase in production quotas, likely leading to lower oil prices. This decision reflects a pragmatic approach to a market fundamentally changed by US shale production.
Pumping Now, Before the Window Closes
The decision to increase production can be seen as an opportunistic one. With global economies starting to recover from the pandemic and energy demand rising, OPEC+ sees a chance to capitalize on the current market conditions. By pumping more oil now, they can capture a larger share of the market before the shale boom potentially slows down.
However, there are also risks associated with this strategy. Flooding the market with additional crude could lead to a price drop, potentially hurting OPEC+ members' long-term revenue streams.
A Difficult Time for Saudi Arabia
The shift in strategy comes at a particularly challenging time for Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC+. The kingdom faces ambitious spending plans to diversify its economy away from oil dependence. Lower oil prices could significantly hamper these efforts, putting a strain on Saudi Arabia's finances.
Uncertainties Remain
While the decision to increase production signifies a move away from the $100 target, the long-term implications remain unclear. The exact impact on oil prices will depend on various factors, including the pace of production increases, global economic growth, and the future trajectory of the US shale industry.
A Reshaped Oil Market
The OPEC+ decision marks a turning point in the global oil market. The era of OPEC+ wielding absolute control over oil prices seems to be over. The rise of US shale has created a new dynamic, forcing OPEC+ to adapt and adjust its strategies.
Looking Ahead
The oil market's future will likely be characterized by greater competition, with OPEC+ and US shale producers vying for market share. How this competition unfolds and how oil prices react will be a story to watch closely in the coming months and years.
Conclusion
OPEC+'s decision to increase oil production signifies a strategic shift away from their long-held pursuit of $100-a-barrel oil. While this move presents potential advantages, it also carries risks, particularly for Saudi Arabia. The future of the oil market remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: the landscape has been reshaped, and the era of OPEC+ dominance is fading.
OPEC+ Extends Production Cuts: A Calculated Volatile MoveThe recent OPEC+ meeting on June 2nd, 2024, resulted in a significant decision to extend production cuts. This move by the oil cartel, which includes major oil producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia, aims to navigate a complex economic climate and influence global oil prices.
Here's a breakdown of the key takeaways from the meeting:
• Extended Cuts of 3.66 Million Bpd Until December 2025: This is the most impactful decision. OPEC+ originally planned to ease these cuts by the end of 2024. However, extending them by a year indicates a commitment to controlling supply and potentially keeping oil prices elevated.
• Prolonged Cuts of 2.2 Million Bpd Until September 2024: These deeper cuts, initially set to expire in June 2024, have been extended for an additional three months. This further tightens the supply in the short term.
• Phased Out Production Cuts (2.2 Million Bpd) from October 2024 to September 2025: While extending cuts, OPEC+ has acknowledged the need for a gradual return to pre-cut production levels. This measured approach aims to prevent a price shock if all cuts were lifted abruptly.
Understanding the reasoning behind these decisions requires looking at the current oil market landscape. Several factors are likely influencing OPEC+'s strategy:
• Geopolitical Tensions: The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to disrupt global energy supplies. This disruption, coupled with potential sanctions on Russian oil, has tightened supply and driven prices upwards. OPEC+ may be aiming to maintain a price floor by keeping production cuts in place.
• Post-Pandemic Recovery: The global economy is still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. While demand for oil is increasing, it hasn't fully reached pre-pandemic levels. OPEC+ might be cautious about increasing supply too quickly, fearing it could outpace demand and lead to a price slump.
• Shale Oil Production: The resurgence of shale oil production in the United States is a factor to consider. OPEC+ might be strategically keeping production cuts to maintain its market share and influence over global oil prices.
The decision to extend cuts is likely to have a domino effect:
• Impact on Oil Prices: Analysts predict that the production cut extensions will likely lead to a continued rise in oil prices. This could benefit oil-producing nations but put a strain on consumers and industries reliant on oil, potentially leading to higher transportation costs and production expenses.
• Global Economic Growth: Higher oil prices can dampen economic growth as consumer spending power decreases due to increased energy costs. This is a concern for countries already grappling with inflation.
• Shift Towards Renewables: OPEC+'s move to control supply could incentivize a faster transition towards renewable energy sources. Countries looking to lessen their dependence on volatile oil prices might accelerate investments in clean energy alternatives.
The future trajectory of the oil market remains uncertain. OPEC+'s decision to extend production cuts is a calculated move to navigate a complex economic climate. While it might benefit oil-producing nations in the short term, it could also have consequences for consumers and the global economic recovery. How this strategy unfolds and how the market reacts will be interesting to watch in the coming months.
Crude oil focuses on the 77.5 important dividing line
Crude oil technical analysis
Daily resistance 77.5, support below 74.4
Four-hour resistance 77.5, support below 76
Crude oil operation suggestions: The overall price of crude oil continues to fluctuate downward above the 78 mark, continuing the recent trend of suppressing short positions. Today, the upper resistance focuses on the starting point of the hourly line decline, 77.5-77.8. During the day, we will continue to rely on this position to continue to be short and follow the trend to fall back. The lower target is still concerned about breaking the bottom. The short-term long and short watershed focuses on the 77.5 line. When you first reach this position, you can try to short with a light position, once.
SELL:78.5 near SL:79.00
SELL:77.5 near SL:78.00
Technical analysis only provides trading direction!
USOil moving lower**Monthly Chart**
Last month candle closed bearish after testing the low of key reversal candle of the previous month and started moving lower. The next target on monthly is around 71 level and then 63 level respectively.
**Weekly Chart**
Last week's candle closed as a bearish key reversal suggesting a continuation of the downtrend move.
**Daily Chart**
USOil broke the relative equal high of the range with the creation of manipulation candles at around 80 levels. The next target is to break the soft level of supports around 75.50 level and move aggressively lower. A corrective move around 78.00 level is required to push the price lower. The next target is around the 72 to 70 level.
Crude oil under pressure 80.3 return rangeCrude oil technical analysis
Daily resistance 79.2-83.4, support below 77.5
Four-hour resistance 79.2-80, support below 78.5
✅Crude oil operation suggestions: Crude oil fell back after reaching a high yesterday. It failed to continue its strong performance after breaking through 80.0. The small negative line retreated and showed signs of seeking support at a lower level. In a strong market, the price usually falls back on the same day. Yesterday, it fell back and closed at a low level, which made the short-term bulls not strong. It still returned to a volatile trend. Be careful of today's rapid rise to repair the decline.
The overall price continued to fall back after encountering resistance above the 80 mark. The short-term daily level continued the rhythm of long and short wide fluctuations. Today's upper resistance focuses on the opening of yesterday's hourly line near 80.3-80.5, and the lower support focuses on the 78.5 line. During the day, keep selling high and buying low according to this range.
BUY:79.2 near SL:79.00
BUY:78.5 near SL:78.00
The crude oil brokers' quotations are different, only for reference of trading direction
USOIL: Current oil prices are widening their fluctuation rangeUSOIL: Current oil costs are widening their fluctuation range. The short-time period upward fashion because of climate facts in North America and Texas reasons short-time period worries approximately oil output on this region. However, withinside the future, oil costs will nevertheless generally tend to lower and watch for bulletins from OPEC+. We can see that individuals of OPEC+ and Russia have all proven symptoms and symptoms of growing production, so the chance of a lower in oil costs is surprisingly high. Consider promoting across the modern rate range. Target is 76$/1 barrel
USOIL: Short-term oil prices are on the way to recovering to $80USOIL: Short-time period oil fees are at the manner to convalescing to BSE:EIGHTY because the marketplace is presently watching for the subsequent OPEC+ meeting. However, the chance of a lower is fantastically excessive due to the fact OPEC+ nations have nearly all showed the growth in production. This will probably reason oil fees to drop even lower. Consider ready to promote with USOIL around BSE:EIGHTY with the anticipated goal to go back to $75-76
USOil short term Bullish and long term Bearish**Monthly Chart**
USOil last monthly candle created a swing high with a Ring high formation which indicates a continuation of the bearish trend as it bounced from a key level at around 87.60. This month the price opened from the low of the previous candle and continues to move lower. The next level is around 70.00 and then 66.60.
**Weekly Chart**
The last weekly candle closed bearish which has created a different opinion on whether USOil price might continue moving lower after breaking the soft support level or bounce from it at around 75.90.
**Daily Chart**
I am seeing short-term bullish to break the equal highs above 80.00 level before continuing the move lower. Therefore, my long-term bias is still bearish for USOil.
The plan for this week. I will only react near the low and high of the levels that I marked. Plus I will look for a confirmation candle (some calls it insurance candle).
USOIL: Oil prices have turned downUSOIL: Oil fees have became down. In the fast time period, there are symptoms and symptoms of breaking the preceding growing channel. Besides, the fast-time period accumulation region around $77 -seventy nine is likewise displaying a main weak point withinside the context that OPEC+ has finished its discount goal and is making plans to boom production. In the fast-time period destiny scenario, it's far in all likelihood that OIL will drop to deeper charge levels. You can watch to promote with short-time period expectancies of around $75/1 barrel.
A must-read for trading oil
If you are a friend who likes to trade oil, you can do a rebound at 77.5-77.8. Combined with the trend channel, oil will rebound to a certain extent after falling. For ultra-short-term trading, you can also buy to earn the difference.
In the past, you always failed when trading alone.
But everything will change after you follow me.
Because we will be the ultimate winner!
Sell oil. A must read if trading oil.
In terms of oil, after the news of substantial persistence came to light. Oil prices have been trending downward. This is true in the medium term and also in the short term. Currently, the top of 79 serves as a pressure position and is a good selling point. The small-level target below is around the price of 77.5.
Operations are still focused on selling.
In the past, you always failed when trading alone.
But everything will change after you follow me.
Because we will be the ultimate winner!
OIL: Descending channel, sell on highsCrude Oil Technical Analysis
Daily resistance is 79.7-83.6, support below is 76.8-75
Four-hour resistance is 78.6-79.7, support below is 76.8
Crude oil operation suggestions:
Last Friday, the overall oil price fell under pressure from the 79.9 mark. The overall price appeared to be suppressed and encountered resistance at the 79.9 mark. There is still room for decline in the short term. Today, the upper resistance will focus on the hourly top-bottom transition level around 79-78.8. The intraday rebound will rely on this position to continue to be bearish. . The lower target level still focuses on new lows, and the short-term weak short-term dividing line focuses on the 79.7 mark. Before the daily level reaches this position, continue to maintain high price short selling.
SELL:78.8near SL:79.1
SELL:79.7near SL:80.0
Technical analysis only provides trading direction!
Oil price real-time trading details
Oil prices are currently back at low levels, supported by the June production cut agreement. In the short term, buying is still the main focus, taking the price of tradingview as an example. 78.2-78.5 is used as the buying range.
The target can be set at 79.6-80.5.