Gold: It may fall to 1800! ! !
Gold fell from around 1930 to around 1845, with basically no rebound, that is, the bulls surrendered directly. This trend is obviously a short trend, and the lows continue to fall. Even a rebound of a few dollars is directly swallowed up by the big negative line. This It’s short energy.
The four-hour line of gold price has entered the next level. It continues to be a negative line. The era of shorts is obviously coming. The sword below is pointing to the 1811 line, or even near 1615. Anything is possible on the K-line. At the same time, the 50-day moving average continues to run downward, continuing to compress the bulls' Space, there is no possibility of rebound at all, the K line is suppressed by the 50 moving average throughout the whole process, and it is pressed to the floor and rubbed, empty, 1834 empty
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USOIL: Crude oil analysis and operation
With Opec + pledging to curb oil supply until the end of the year and Asia's economic recovery expected to expand again, we expect global oil inventories to fall by 70 million barrels over the next three months. As a result, we now see Brent averaging $91 / BBL in the second half, up from $81 / BBL previously. Still, our forecast for 2024 remains at $90 per barrel, thanks to an increase of 1.2 million BPD in non-OPEC supply from Guyana, Canada, U.S. shale, and Brazil. In addition, if sanctions on Venezuela and Iran are further eased, supply will increase by 450,000 BPD in 2024. As Opec + politics and global geopolitics allow, the increased supply will help restrain further price increases. Oil prices surged 3.50 per cent yesterday, with intraday highs above $95. After the opening of the morning, oil prices surged on the inertia, the high point entered the $95 mark, and the current pressure is below 94, and the momentum of turning the gun is still strong. In operation, it is still a reasonable choice to short the rally. Short-term strategy reference: High probability scenario: bearish below 95.0, target 93.0-92.0; Low probability scenario: Bullish above 92.0, target 95.0-96.2.
USOIL:Range fluctuation
The oil is back in the range again. If you trade according to my range, I think you can have a great time today.
Today, the oil price fell to near 88.2, and the low point was tested again, but it still returned to the range, so now we have adjusted the range, the range is: 88.3-91.2
The adjustment of the range range increases the success rate of our trading. As long as it is within the range, we still buy at a low level, sell at a high level, break through the range and then re-observe.
Today, the low was tested for the third time and rose again, so we must observe whether the position above 91.2 will break through. If it breaks through, it is more likely to rise. If you want to sell, pay attention to setting a stop loss.
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Crude oil: Crude oil rebounds to highs
U.S. oil WTI once fell below $89 and pushed down to $88. It fell as much as $1.48 or 1.7%. After turning up, it returned to the psychological integer level of $90. The more actively traded Brent December futures once fell to US$90 or fell as much as 1.6%, then turned higher and then returned to US$92. The futures about to be delivered after expiration turned higher and then rose above US$94. They had previously fallen below 93 US dollars. and $92.
Oil prices turned higher and broke off two-week lows, with U.S. oil returning to $90
In the third quarter, U.S. oil rose by more than 26%, and Brent oil rose by about 24%. Both are expected to record the largest increase in more than a year since the first quarter, and both oil prices will achieve cumulative increases in every month of the third quarter. Mainly because the prospect of tight supply outweighs concerns about economic and oil demand uncertainty in a period of high interest rates. However, some analysts worry that the U.S. government shutdown may make it difficult for Brent oil to rise to $100.
Go long near 92.0, stop loss: 89.90, the target is 92.0-95.0 if it breaks.
Crude Oil: Strategy Advice Short
The oil supply outlook remains tight, with Russia and Saudi Arabia both cutting output through the end of the year, while the number of operating oil rigs in the United States has dropped to its lowest level since the end of the year. U.S. refiners are also cutting production capacity, further tightening supply.
While these factors are expected to continue to support prices, overall economic concerns are limiting oil prices' upside potential. In the short term, oil prices will continue to be impacted by the above factors. Rising interest rates, a stronger dollar and worries about the global economy appear to be offsetting the benefits of limited supply. However, with the start of China's National Day Golden Week, a potential rebound in tourist numbers may bring some support to oil prices. But until global economic concerns are eased, oil market sentiment tends to be bearish.
Short-term strategy reference: High probability scenario: bearish above 90.6, target 90.0-90.6. Small probability scenario: bullish below 88.8, target 88.5-88.9 Market comment: RSI technical indicator runs downward!
USOIL:Range fluctuation
Oil is still fluctuating in the range, reaching a minimum of around 89 today.
The oil has not chosen the direction yet. Last time we judged that the oil was going to test near the support point of 88.9.
Now the oil is near 89.9, and the direction is still not confirmed, so this range is still valid. You can still sell at the high point, buy at the low point, and wait for the oil to break through the range to confirm the trend.
We can't blindly think that oil will fall now, because we have tested the low twice in a row, but it has not fallen. We trade in the range. If we break through the range, we will strictly set a stop loss.Wait for the funds to choose the direction.
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USOIL: Crude oil analysis and planning
Last Friday opened 89.5, went up to 90.3 and then fell back up again at 89.7 to be supported, crossed the previous high of 90.3 to 91.2, which is near the upper edge of the adjustment range said before, the price fell as scheduled, was supported at 89.2, 91 short orders gained more than 10 points last week, and rebounded to 90.4 after being supported. The last line was pulled in at 90.2, and the day line recorded a small Yang of a long shadow line.
The crude oil adjustment level now comes to the 4-hour level, the adjustment range is 91.3 to 88.4, because the adjustment level has just been expanded from the 1-hour level to the 4-hour level, and it is still much lower in this range today.
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Crude Oil: Today’s Strategy Advice!
The top of crude oil is empty near 92-92.3, and the defense is 93.5, and the target is around 90 and 89.5. The bottom is long near 89.5-90, and the defense is 88.5, and the target is around 89.2-88.7. Specifically, wait for the real-time strategy to update the entry point, and you need to follow up offline. Friends who do not follow up in real time may make operational mistakes. You can join the group to pay attention to the latest news and follow market trends in real time. Strategies are subject to change at any time.
USOIL:Choose direction
The trend of oil is still the same as I said, fluctuating in the range, as long as you follow my strategy, you should be able to have a nice weekend.
Oil rose as high as 91.3 today, but fell and did not break through the range in the end. When the second rise did not break through the high of 91.3 and fell back within the range, then you can sell decisively.
Now there are still fluctuations in the range, so the range is still valid. You can still buy at the low point and sell at the high point in the range. Waiting for the trend to break through the range, we can judge the final trend of oil.
Because oil has not risen to break through the range for three consecutive times, now we have to observe the support points in the range. If the support points cannot be effectively supported, then the possibility of oil falling will be greater.
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The High Oil Price ConundrumI'd like to draw your attention to an issue that has been brewing beneath the surface, silently impacting emerging market countries and their currencies. It is the high oil price, which many argue functions as a form of tax, cooling economic growth and putting additional strain on these nations.
The recent surge in oil prices has undoubtedly caught the attention of investors and traders worldwide. While this may appear to be a favorable opportunity for short-term gains, we must consider the long-term repercussions it may have, particularly on emerging market economies. These nations, often characterized by their growing industries and developing infrastructure, are now facing an unexpected challenge that threatens their progress.
The high oil price acts as a burden on emerging market countries, effectively functioning as a tax that hampers economic growth. As these nations rely heavily on imported oil to sustain their industries and meet domestic energy demands, the rising cost of oil significantly impacts their budgets. The increased expenditure on oil imports leaves less room for investment in vital sectors such as education, healthcare, and infrastructure development.
Furthermore, the high oil price also exerts pressure on emerging market currencies, leading to depreciation against major global currencies. This depreciation, in turn, makes imports more expensive, exacerbating the already strained economic situation. As a result, these countries face a double whammy of reduced purchasing power and increased inflationary pressures, further dampening their economic prospects.
In light of these challenges, I would like to encourage you to pause and reflect on the potential consequences of trading oil at its current high price. While the temptation to capitalize on short-term gains may be strong, let us not overlook the broader impact on emerging market economies. By exercising caution and restraint, we can contribute to a more sustainable and balanced global market ecosystem.
As traders, we have a responsibility to consider the long-term implications of our actions. By taking a step back and re-evaluating our trading strategies, we can help mitigate the negative effects of high oil prices on emerging market countries. This pause will allow these nations to regain their footing and implement measures to alleviate the burden imposed by soaring oil prices.
Let us remember that our actions have far-reaching consequences. By acting responsibly and with a cautious approach, we can contribute to a more equitable and stable global market environment. Together, we can help ensure the sustainable growth and development of emerging market economies, benefitting us all in the long run.
Thank you for your attention, and let us pause, reflect, and trade responsibly.
Crude oil: short at high points
Crude oil fell first and did not give short-selling opportunities. Then short-selling can only be considered when it goes up to the support line. The short-selling opportunities in the 90.8-91.6 area were also prompted in the roadshow and in the group (as shown below). . With the sharp counterattack of crude oil, bulls began to save themselves, but eventually gave up most of the gains. At present, oil prices have fallen into short-term shocks, and bulls and bears are expected to compete here. Crude oil is expected to rebound, so it will fall back first and wait for the counter-draw. , as to whether this is a reversal topping stage or a rise relay, currently I personally prefer the first.
The main reason for the rebound in crude oil is that the overall upward trend of wave 3 has most likely ended. Starting from the high point of 92.41, there is a high probability that it will enter the mid-term 4-wave adjustment. The specific breakdown is in wave 4 A of it. Crude oil pressure 90.85~91.45,
USOIL:Trading strategy
Oil is the same as I predicted yesterday. Today, it fell directly and broke through the support point, but Russia suddenly announced a ban on the export of gasoline and diesel, causing oil to rise again. Now the trend of oil has become blurred.
Now we can only observe the resistance and support points of the range
The range is 88.9-91.1
So we can trade in the range.
Strictly set the stop loss and wait for the trend to become clear
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USOIL:Trading strategy
Oil finally fell. When many people thought it would rise, I always believed that oil would fall.
Because since last week, oil prices have been postponed last week because of the joint production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia, but the technical indicators show that they have been overbought.
Our medium-term goal is still 86
Short-term trading advice:
USoil:Sell:91-92
TP1:90.1
TP2:89.2
TP3:88
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USOIL:Trading strategy
Oil is the same as I predicted last time, reaching resistance and falling, the lowest falling to my predicted TP2: 89.2
Now oil is rising again, but I think oil will definitely adjust and fall in the end.Medium-term target is still: 86
Short-term trading advice:
USoil:Sell:92.3-92.8
TP1:91.5
TP2:89.9
TP3:89.5
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USOIL: Today's operation plan
Crude oil on Wednesday morning: At present, crude oil is the daily low of 89.8 line, whether the bears begin to force or a false shot to see today to verify, so first maintain the range of 89.3-91.8.
Today's operation suggestion:
Rally to 90.6-91 short;
Retracting to 89.3 Try a long light position.
Russia Oil Shipment Hits 3-Month High,NEW Oil Price Target As you may be aware, Russia's oil shipment has hit a new three-month high, which has prompted us to revise our oil price target to $100. In light of this, we believe there may be a potential opportunity for long oil positions.
However, before proceeding further, I would like to emphasize the need for caution and prudence when considering any investment decision. While the recent increase in Russia's oil shipment is a positive indicator for oil prices, it is crucial to consider various factors that may impact the market dynamics.
We encourage you to thoroughly analyze the market conditions, including geopolitical tensions, global economic recovery, and any potential disruptions in the supply chain. These factors can significantly influence oil prices and should be taken into account before making any trading decisions.
Considering the cautious tone, it is imperative to conduct thorough research and consult with your financial advisor or analyst to evaluate the potential risks and rewards associated with long oil positions. Market volatility remains a significant concern, and it is crucial to have a well-defined risk management strategy in place.
With this in mind, we would like to remind you of the importance of diversification. While oil may present an attractive opportunity, it is essential to maintain a balanced portfolio that includes a range of assets across various sectors. This approach can help mitigate potential risks and enhance your overall investment strategy.
In conclusion, as Russia's oil shipment reaches a new three-month high, we believe that the oil price target of $100 presents a potential opportunity for long positions. However, we urge you to exercise caution and consider the various factors that may impact the market dynamics. Thorough research, consultation with experts, and a well-defined risk management strategy are crucial in making informed trading decisions.
Should you require any further information or assistance, please do not hesitate to comment. We are here to support you in navigating the complexities of the market and making sound investment choices
Crude oil: trend analysis continues to push back more
Although we are currently at the end of a phased rise in crude oil, the bulls are still very strong and continue to hit new highs. Therefore, we still maintain a bullish and long thinking before the necessary turning signal appears. The only thing that needs to be paid attention to is the number of each transaction. Risk control must be strictly implemented to prevent emergencies from occurring. Still looking for opportunities to continue trading lower during the day.
The main reason why crude oil is bullish is that the upward trend of wave 3 and wave 5 is still continuing, and there is still a slight retracement on the way, and it is still bullish. It has now entered the final peak moment of wave 3 of wave 5-5. Crude oil pressure 91.30~92.10, support 91.4
Crude Oil: Today’s Strategy Trend
The retracement of crude oil indeed exceeded expectations, but the bulls still stubbornly recovered the lost ground in the late trading. Therefore, the bullish position is still the main focus at present. The washout on the way is also the result of the long-short contest. If the price falls back to the point during the day, we will still be bullish. Don’t directly chase long positions in early trading.
The main reason why crude oil is bullish is that the upward trend of wave 3 and wave 5 is still continuing, and there is still a slight retracement on the way, and it is still bullish. Now it has been subdivided again and has entered the final peak moment of wave 3 of wave 5-5. Crude oil pressure is 90.80~91.50, support is 89.30~88.70.
For crude oil operations, it is recommended to wait for 90.8 to buy, with a target of 90.80~91.50. If it rises directly to 91.50, we will look at the pressure signals and decide whether to buy the top.
Directly empty, ready to plummet to the 80 line
Crude oil is about to plummet to the 80line, if you have any questions, come to me, it is so domineering
Crude oil’s daily line is obviously in the trend of multiple tops, at least a quadruple top. Every time it rushes to around 82, and then is suppressed strongly. At the same time, there is a waterfall downward, and the Bollinger Bands have closed. already empty
USOIL:Trading strategy
Oil has now reached the short-term resistance point.
But today we need to pay attention to whether we can break through the previous high.
Usoil Today's trade building:
Usoil:sell84.75-85.25 TP:84.1-83.7
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