How is oil trading amid expectations of an economic downturn?
The panic brought about by successive bank bankruptcy, the market expects that the European economy will enter a recession, and the demand will drop sharply, leading to a general decline in commodities. Crude oil has fallen below $70 yesterday. If it falls below $60, it is expected to continue to fall to around $43 , which is very large space.
If the bankruptcy incident can be stopped, the panic will no longer spread, the market will restore confidence in the European economy, and once again raise expectations for demand, oil prices will return to above $80 again.
From the perspective of technical form, it is still in a downward channel. If it does not fall below 65, we do not rule out the probability of a short-term double bottom. If we do not retest around 65 again, for the rebound market, we only see the 69-71 range. , there is a very strong resistance around 71-72. If it can break through, the technical form can go up further.
At the same time, it needs the cooperation of the news. If the panic cannot be controlled, we may have to short first and wait for 60 Look at the support situation nearby. If the decline stops, then there will be a greater opportunity to go long.
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Usoiltrade
USOIL: How?GAP is defined as the gap between 2 consecutive trading sessions (or 2 candles). GAP is determined based on the closing price of the previous candle and the opening price of the following candle. Under normal conditions, the closing price of the previous session will be the opening price of the immediately following session.
USOil | New perspective for the week | Follow-up detailFollowing approximately 2,000 pips in profit last week (see link below for reference purposes); we took a fresh new look at the chart as US Oil prices hit their lowest point since December 2021. I think the slump in oil prices this time, had little to do with supply-demand but more with the crisis of confidence at banks that provide the liquidity for trading this commodity and the potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have also led to fears that the US economy could end up in a recession. In this video, we took a technical dissection of the current market structure and identified a simple structure that we shall be using to guide trading activities in the coming week(s).
01:00 Reference to last week's daily commentaries and results
04:20 USOil Technical analysis on Daily chart
06:39 USOil Technical analysis on Weekly chart
09:00 USOil Technical analysis on 4H Timeframe against next week
10:30 Conclusion on next week's expectation for the USOil
Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Bullish on crude oil, target 72
OIL broke through the resistance around 69.8-70 yesterday, and the resistance has now turned into support.
The new resistance is around 70.8. If the support does not break, you can go long USOIL.
The first TP will continue to be placed at 70.7 yesterday's TP. If Break through 70.8, the next TP target is 71.2-72.4.
SL temporarily set to 69.47
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USOIL: Bottom fishing, with potential return to $80 per barrel
US crude oil has fallen for three consecutive days, pushing oil prices below $70 per barrel. As the market continues to revise down expectations for economic growth, and rising crude oil supplies offset the boost from China's reopening and the instability caused by the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapse and Credit Suisse crisis, the financial market is facing huge instability, which has led to a sharp drop in oil prices.
As the development of fundamentals continues to weigh on risk sentiment, US crude oil has extended its decline, breaking through the previous support (now turned into resistance) at the important psychological level of $70. As of Wednesday's close, US crude oil has fallen more than 12% this week, pushing the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) into oversold territory. At the same time, this round of decline has pushed oil prices towards the 200-week moving average (MA) of around $66, and oil prices have temporarily found support at this level.
Personally, I am bottom fishing and going long on USOIL at $66-68 per barrel. Due to the huge volatility of energy products, please control your position size. Only consider following my strategy if you have sufficient capital. Enter the market with a small position and aim for long-term profits, with a target of $80 per barrel on the upside.
I have conducted in-depth research on futures products such as cryptocurrencies, forex, stocks, gold, and crude oil. I also update my daily operation strategies. Thank you for your attention and support. If you have any questions, please feel free to leave a message, and I will provide the most secure advice. I hope I can help you.
USOIL:$78 next week is crucial
On Tuesday this week, the testimony of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve before Congress raised concerns about risk assets in the market. In this testimony, Powell stated that "if it is necessary, the Federal Reserve is prepared to speed up the pace of interest rate hikes, and terminal interest rates may be higher than expected." These words indicate that the Federal Reserve not only did not cool down the rising expectations for interest rate hikes over the past month, but also further pushed up the expectations for interest rate hikes.
Powell's speech caused shock in the market, as the market saw from Powell's speech a determination to lower the inflation rate at the cost of suppressing demand and employment. On that day, the US dollar index soared, risk appetite deteriorated, and US stocks fell sharply, accompanied by a sharp drop of 4% in oil prices from above $80 per barrel.
However, there was a reversal in oil prices on Friday. After testing the support at $74.5, the market quickly rebounded above $76 and successfully stabilized. Our long position in crude oil at $75 also reached the first take-profit level smoothly. However, there is still a certain distance from the recent high of $80, and the upper resistance level to watch is in the 76-78 area. This dense resistance area may limit the upward space. But if it breaks through $78, there will be an opportunity to challenge the $80 level again. Let's keep an eye on it, and I will update the trading strategy in a timely manner.
I have in-depth research on futures products such as cryptocurrencies, foreign exchange, stocks, gold, and crude oil, and I also update daily trading strategies. Thank you for your attention and likes. If you have any questions, please leave a message, and I will provide the most secure advice to help you.
Buy on dips below $75 for USOIL
As the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates and unwind its balance sheet, concerns over other US banks were raised following the "Silicon Valley Bank Incident", causing all three major US stock markets to fall. The S&P 500 Bank Index plummeted 6% last night, marking the largest single-day drop in two years. JPMorgan's stock price also fell 6%, resulting in a market capitalization loss of approximately $20 billion. Bank of America fell 6.1%, while Wells Fargo and Citigroup fell over 6% and 4% respectively. The four major US banks suffered a combined loss of $47 billion.
Silicon Valley Bank announced an $1.8 billion loss from the sale of part of its investment portfolio, and sought to raise $2.25 billion by selling common and preferred shares. The bank's "self-rescue measures" worried investors, causing the stock price to plummet by 60%. In short, the market believes that Silicon Valley Bank is facing a liquidity crisis. Without a doubt, the market's risk aversion sentiment has spread to the crude oil market.
After reaching $80, USOIL saw a sharp decline to below $75. Currently, there is a demand for a rebound in the market, and it is suggested to buy on dips below $75. Short-term technical rebounds and corrective trends for crude oil are expected, with a target focus on $77-80. I will continue to monitor the market and provide the latest strategies.
USOIL: Long position after a downward adjustment to $77
Despite the unexpected drop in API crude oil inventory providing support to oil prices, the hawkish speech by the overnight Federal Reserve Chairman has continued to help the US dollar index soar, which has raised concerns about economic recession and continued to put pressure on oil prices. Although there is a chance for the oil price to rebound and adjust after the overnight plunge.
Looking at the daily chart of USOIL, the upward trend has not been broken, and the support below has continued to rise. Although there is no effective breakthrough above $80, the adjustment range of this downward trend is sufficient, and it is a good opportunity to enter the long position again.
Personal trading strategy: Buy long position near $77-77.5, with the first target at $78.5 and the second target at $80, and pay close attention to the EIA data to be released tonight.
I have in-depth research on futures products such as cryptocurrencies, foreign exchange, stocks, gold, and crude oil, and I will also update some daily trading strategies. Thank you for your attention and likes. If you have any questions, please feel free to leave a message, and I will provide the most secure advice, hoping to help you.
USOIL: Long position at 79.5
Over the past two weeks, international oil prices have continued to fluctuate upwards, despite the negative signals from changes in US crude oil inventories and little impact on Russian crude oil exports from sanctions. However, these pressures have been unable to overshadow the positive impact of China's economic recovery and resilient risk appetite on oil prices.
The supply gap caused by Russian sanctions on crude oil has been a concern for investors and an important factor supporting oil prices. According to recent media reports, the CEO of crude oil trader Gunvor Group has stated that price ceilings and export bans have not interrupted Russian crude oil exports, and there is an "uncontrolled fleet" shipping Russian crude oil outside the control of Europe and the United States.
Contrary to the negative factors mentioned above, China's economic recovery is one of the important positive factors for international oil prices. Apart from immediate indicators such as the recovery of transportation observed by the market after the relaxation of epidemic prevention measures, some recognized economic data have confirmed the strong rebound of China's economy, such as the official PMI and Caixin PMI last week. Goldman Sachs previously predicted that as China's economy recovers, oil prices may return to $100 per barrel.
China's latest trade data released today showed a trade surplus of $116.88 billion for January-February, down 6.8% year-on-year, better than the expected decline of 9.4%; imports fell by 10.2% year-on-year, worse than the expected decline of 5.5%. From the sub-item data, China's crude oil imports in January-February fell by 1.25% year-on-year (about 1.07 million tons), but imports of refined oil increased by 14.4% year-on-year (about 0.67 million tons). The recent strong risk appetite has also provided support for the rise of international oil prices.
The daily chart shows that crude oil has broken through the downtrend line starting from January 27th, and after yesterday's fluctuations, it has broken through the 80 level, which may open up space for further upward movement. Although there may be adjustments during the day, if it can hold the support near the 80 level, it will maintain the prospect of further bullishness. If expectations are met, subsequent upward movements will target the recent months' high of 83 and the downward pressure line since July last year of 84.
Personal trading recommendation: Enter a long position near $79.5, with the first target at $81.5 and the second target at $82.5. Whether crude oil can effectively stand above $80 in the near future is crucial. If there are any changes in the market situation, I will update it in a timely manner. Please continue to follow my strategy and leave me a message if you have any questions. I hope this can help everyone.
USOIL top-down analysisHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
Why has USOIL skyrocketed?
Yellow leaves give up the trunk in anticipation of the verdant spring; candles sacrifice their perfect bodies to have a lifetime of brightness; and the mind lets go of the mundane clamor to embrace tranquility. Only by letting go can one free their hands and seize true happiness and joy that belong to them. Learning to let go is essential to living a fulfilling life.
Now, let's analyze the reasons for the USOIL rise on Friday:
Middle East conflict: Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have conflicts over multiple issues. The most significant disagreement is related to Yemen. The UAE is seeking to build a military base and runway on an island at the southern end of the Red Sea in the Mandeb Strait. However, Saudi Arabia has refused. Sources also indicate that the UAE has been urging OPEC+ to allow for increased oil production, but Saudi Arabia has remained steadfast in its refusal. In the end, the UAE publicly and privately indicated that it would adhere to the current OPEC+ agreement for at least this year. Therefore, this led to a significant rebound in crude oil prices after the initial sharp drop. However, it is important to continue monitoring the situation to see if the development of events will persist, which represents the primary risk.
Sudden incidents: At least 12 people died in a pipeline explosion in Nigeria. On March 3, the Rivers State Police Department issued a statement saying that a segment of an oil pipeline in a village in the Imoha area of the state caught fire and exploded in the early morning. At the time of the accident, local residents were stealing oil from the pipeline, and it is believed that the burnt-out cars found at the scene belong to the oil thieves. The police are investigating the cause of the accident. This is a bullish factor for crude oil since Nigeria produces 1.44 million barrels per day, and the already repaired production may once again be affected.
Data release: In the week ending March 3, the total number of oil drilling rigs in the United States was 592, compared to an expected 602 and a previous value of 600. This data is bullish for USOIL.
From a technical perspective, USOIL was oscillating within the 76-78 range, but due to the impact of sudden events and data, the trend broke through upwards, and the trend turned bullish. It is worth emphasizing that USOIL belongs to the energy and strategic resources sector, and many events can lead to dramatic price fluctuations. Therefore, it is important to pay attention not only to technical analysis but also to the impact of news. In the short term, we will focus on whether 80.60 can form an effective breakthrough. If the resistance above is strong, the trend will fall back to around 78.60, and then we can lay out a long position in line with the trend.
In the short term, the USOIL market is not stable, and cautious investors should observe mainly and wait for the impact of news to dissipate before laying out a more secure technical strategy. I will provide specific operation suggestions timely, and feel free to leave me a message if you have any questions. Thank you for your attention and support.
USOIL possible buy zone!Instrument : USOIL
Possible direction : Bullish
Technical Analysis : After back to back 4 months of strong rejection from the support level, USOIL bulls has taken control of the market with strong impulse on the daily, price has broken out of the weekly resistance zone and it is highly likely USOIL will continue to rise with a strong momentum and may reach to 84.80 level where is the resistance level.
Possible trade recommendation : Bullish as per sketch.
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Understanding Oil Right NowOil Markets have been slammed off highs as demand recedes.
Natural market sentiment changes give prices a whack and eventually... Well they get a little low. Remember, extreme prices just do not last. It's unsustainable and that's what causes a hit in the price. Think about it.... Can oil realistically become such an enormous price that people literally can't buy it at all or drive cars. That's what global Reg is for.
Looking at charts directly with knowledge of PA and Key Tech Aspects we know a 50% Move down is a fair spot to get long.
NOTE the return to MA's is swift and straight to previous areas of rejection and key Ma's. This is because price becomes ideal to old and new buyers alike which you can see from the formation/appearance of candles.
Long zones remain @ 67$ as we looked at previously. Market sentiment is still taking the price to the downside as seen on various asset classes we've looked at today (USD reflective). Risk averse zone is preferred but can be scalped at current levels on early entry Confirmation.
Always remember to reflect on the validity of extreme prices both when we saw 0 and when we saw the huge highs in previous economic climates. It always changes and you can easily track this via many news outlets.
Trade Small and scale at predetermined long zone.
USOIL top-down analysisHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
USOIL top-down analysisHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
USOIL top-down analysisHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
USOIL top-down analysisHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.