USOIL:Continue longHello friends, Luke here again. As a recipient of several regional trading awards, I'm excited to be part of TradingView where I can share my strategies with you daily, hoping to be of assistance.
I've previously emphasized a bullish target for crude oil at $80. Currently, the upward trend is clear, and dips should be seen as opportunities to go long. The buying zone to focus on is between $77.6 and $76.
I update my market analysis daily and also share precise trading signals within my exclusive group, Luke's Circle, to help you achieve steady and long-term profits in your account. Don't miss out!
Usoiltrade
USOIL: Continue to Go Long Next WeekHello, friends. I'm Luke, a former champion trader in multiple regions, and I'm delighted to join TradingView to share my strategies with you every day, hoping to provide assistance.
This week, I've analyzed that crude oil is expected to continue rising to the range of $78-80 per barrel. Today, it has reached a high of $77.5 per barrel, and I remain optimistic about the future upward movement of crude oil. If it retraces to the range of $73-75 per barrel, consider going long once again!
I update my market analysis daily and also send accurate trading signals within Luke's small group to help stabilize and sustain profitability in your accounts. Don't miss out!
usoil: Expected to Rise to $80 in the FutureHello friends, I'm Luke, a former champion trader in multiple regions. I'm excited to join TradingView and share my strategies with you every day, hoping to provide assistance.
Crude oil has established a bottom around $70, and those who bought in heavily near this level have already reaped substantial profits. Personally, I anticipate oil to stabilize around $80 in the coming month, with any further declines seen as buying opportunities.
Key support levels to watch are $72-$70. Buying can be considered upon reaching this area, with target levels focused on $76-$78-$80.
I update market analysis daily and also send accurate trading signals within Luke's small group to help ensure the long-term stability and profitability of your account. Don't miss out!
Monday: Crude oil continues to fluctuate in a rangeOil prices ended slightly higher last week after the International Energy Agency (IEA) and oil producer group OPEC jointly forecast strong growth in global oil demand and cold winter weather disrupted U.S. crude output, while the government reported a sharp weekly reduction in crude oil production.
Crude oil is expected to continue to maintain a volatile trend during the day. The technical aspect will focus on the support near 72, and the upper side will first focus on the resistance near 74.5. Sell high and buy low.
Crude oil prices fluctuated, running in the range of 73.7~70.5There is resistance near 73.7 above crude oil during the day. The recent instability in the Middle East is still the dominant factor in crude oil fluctuations. Below, focus on the support of 70.50. The trend of crude oil is still biased towards shock.
Member complete signal will be updated later
15/1 crude oil trend analysisInternational crude oil futures rose 1% last Friday. Although they rose, they could not erase last week's decline. Last month, OPEC and its allies pledged to cut production by 2.2 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024. After oil prices surged sharply last Friday (January 12), they gave back all their gains, which means that short sellers may make further counterattacks this week. Crude oil prices fluctuated up and down last week, with the daily chart moving up and down in a regular pattern. The 4-hour chart has rebounded with repeated dips, but it has held the low point for the time being, and the low point is rising slightly. However, the high point resistance has not yet been broken through, which makes the short-term space unable to see sustainability, and it is not ruled out that this kind of saw-saw type of washout will continue.
Today's crude oil trading has begun. I hope you can make profits in the volatile market.
Usoil-Range trading analysis
The U.S. EIA crude oil inventory unexpectedly rebounded. Although oil-producing countries such as OPCE+ and Saudi Arabia are fully confident in stabilizing the crude oil market, the market performance is poor and the demand side is relatively weak. As a result, oil is currently in a range-bound state.
Usoil:sell72.75-73.1
TP:72.3-72
SL:73.3
In volatile market conditions, control positions reasonably and set SL
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Tuesday: Crude oil market analysisWTI crude oil prices may be reversing from the decline as the commodity price formed an inverted head and shoulders pattern on the hourly time frame. Prices have yet to break above the neckline around $74 a barrel to confirm the uptrend, and may be followed by a rebound of the same height as this pattern. However, technical indicators suggest that this decline will continue. The 100 SMA is below the 200 SMA, indicating that the path of least resistance is to the downside or that a sell-off is more likely to gain traction rather than reverse. The stochastics are also pointing downwards, indicating that selling pressure is building while buyers take a break.
Similarly, the RSI is moving downwards, indicating bearish momentum is building, and the oscillator has plenty of room to move lower before indicating oversold. In this case, crude oil is likely to continue to follow the trend with sellers in control and may test lows of $70 per barrel. Personal suggestion: go short on the rebound
Monday: Crude oil focuses on the 71/72/74/75 areaOn Monday (January 8), international U.S. crude oil prices traded around $72.85 per barrel. U.S. non-farm employment growth in December exceeded expectations, prompting financial markets to lower expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March. The risk posed by tensions in the Middle East is an important factor in the price rebound. Geopolitical tensions have pushed up trading premiums, and strong jobs data also pointed to strong fuel demand.
In the 4-hour chart, a wave of decline gave up nearly half of the previous gains. It is currently in the process of confirming the retracement. Bollinger Bands closed, the short-term entered a contraction and shock, and the long-short tug-of-war switched. It is not a strong unilateral market. After the second retracement, pay attention to whether it can start a stable recovery above the low point. If it starts to stabilize, continue to watch the rebound.
On the whole, it is suggested that the day-to-day operation of crude oil should focus on the first-line resistance of 74.0-75.0 at the top and the first-line support at 72.0-71.0 at the bottom.
USOIL: Key position 73-73.4
USOIL is currently near the key resistance level. If it can break through here, it will have the opportunity to form a head and shoulders bottom pattern, and then there is a high probability of reaching around 76.
But if there is no strong breakthrough here, the head and shoulders pattern will fail, and it is highly likely that the support near 72 will be backtested.
Therefore, in the trading starting tomorrow, you can focus on the resistance near 73-73.4 and decide the trading direction based on the breakthrough.
On the 45m chart, the pattern is slightly in favor of the bears, looking ahead to Monday’s market options.
If you encounter problems during transactions, you can leave me a message!
Good luck, everyone!
Thursday:Crude oil narrowed and fluctuated Oil prices fell in volatile trading on Thursday as U.S. crude inventories exceeded expectations and concerns about the Red Sea crisis eased. Crude oil's Xiaoyin cross K-line retraced yesterday and settled flat. In line with the rebound of the previous day's big Yang line, it did not make a further strong reversal upward, but went back down. At present, the daily line is still rebounding based on 69.30 as the bottom. If it does not fall below 69.30 in the short term, it will tend to rebound first. Let’s see if it can start a steady rise today. In the 4-hour chart, a wave of decline gave up nearly half of the previous gains. It is currently in the process of confirming the retracement. Bollinger Bands closed, the short-term entered a contraction and shock, and the long-short tug-of-war switched. It is not a strong unilateral market. After the second retracement, pay attention to whether it can start a stable recovery above the low point. If it starts to stabilize, continue to watch the rebound. Of course, the process will still oscillate repeatedly. For short-term operations, set the time point after the European market, and the final market shape shall prevail. Use the intraday form stuck point to respond flexibly in the ultra-short term. On the whole, it is suggested that the day-to-day operation of crude oil should focus on the first-line resistance of 74.0-75.0 at the top and the first-line support of 71.0-70.0 at the bottom.
Strategy reference: It is recommended to enter the market with multiple orders at 72.2-72.4, plan in advance, and pay attention to updates for more signals↓
Thursday: Crude Oil Market Analysis and StrategyOil prices rose in Asia on Thursday, with WTI oil prices hovering around 73.6. Disruptions in Libya's top oil fields heightened concerns that rising tensions in the Middle East could disrupt global oil supplies, and international crude oil prices climbed about 3%. The two crude oil benchmark prices closed higher for the first time in five days, with WTI crude oil rising the most since mid-November. Later on Thursday, U.S. ADP employment changes and weekly initial jobless claims will be released. Traders will take more clues from U.S. employment data on Friday, including non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings due on Friday. The daily line of crude oil closed with the Zhongyang line with a long lower shadow, and there is a high possibility of stopping the decline in the short term. The 1-hour cycle has entered the early transaction intensive area, there is the possibility of a small cycle reversal, and there is a high probability of rising within the day. It is recommended to pay attention to the first-line support of $72.20 below.
Strategy reference: It is recommended to enter the market with long orders at 72.2-72.4
This is a plan ahead, more strategies are waiting for updates👇
Wednesday: Crude oil focuses on 71.2/72.5 pressureOn Wednesday (January 3), crude oil prices were trading around $70.37 per barrel. As investors lowered their expectations for interest rate cuts, the dollar strengthened, putting oil under pressure. Oil prices fell on the first trading day of 2024, with international crude oil futures settlement prices falling by more than 1% as concerns that tensions in the Red Sea could disrupt supply eased. OPEC+ will hold an online meeting early next month to resume routine oil market monitoring. A person familiar with the matter said the meeting is planned for February 1. The trend of U.S. oil this week needs to be repaired and digested. The market needs to confirm the validity of last week's decline. It needs to confirm whether the 73 line can still stand firm. If it can stand firm, U.S. oil will still have expectations for a rebound in the future. If 73 cannot be recovered, then The short-term market may have variable risks. Even if it does not fall in the short-term, it will have a great impact on later emotions. Crude oil's daily closing line has a small negative line with a long upper shadow, which has fallen below important support. There is a high probability that the daily line will hit a new low. The 4-hour cycle is effective for testing the upper pressure area, and if it falls below the long-term moving average support, there is a high probability that it will continue to decline. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure on the upper line of $71.20.
Strategy reference: now 69.9, it is recommended to sell at 71.5-71.2
Planning ahead does not represent a real signal, see more signals👇
Monday. Crude oil falls under pressureCrude oil prices remained weak in Asian trading on Tuesday and are currently trading around 72.6. During the day, we will pay close attention to the US PMI to be released later on Tuesday. Later this week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes will be closely watched ahead of Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) report.
The crude oil market was at 73.67 at the beginning of last week. Afterwards, the market initially rose, reaching a weekly high of 76. Then the market fell back strongly, with a weekly low of 71.05. Afterwards, the market consolidated and finally closed at the end of the week. The line was at 71.12, and then the market closed with a big negative line with a long upper shadow line. After this form ended, crude oil continued to be under pressure. In the 4-hour chart, the pressure on the 76.30 line changed and fell, and the structure fell in a wave. It is still in the rebound trend. The Bollinger Bands are running below the middle track, and the middle track 73.5 is an important resistance point.
Personal suggestion: short on rebound; WTI dividing line: 73.5
28 Crude oil follows 74.4/72.5, see my analysisMarket participants will be watching developments in the Red Sea closely as a drone attack on an oil tanker raises concerns about shipping disruptions. Additionally, ongoing Israeli military strikes in Gaza remain a major driver of sentiment.
On the 1H chart, OIL is in a blocked upward trend. The upper pressure is 74.4. If it stands firm, it will return to the trend. If it falls below the 72.4 support below, it means the end of this round of rising prices.
Focus on these two locations today
27 crude oil market analysis, rise or fall today?The crude oil market is currently at a crossroads, balancing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East with economic factors and policy speculation.
Although oil prices fell in early Asian trading on Wednesday, they surged more than 2% earlier this week to reach their highest level this month. Inventory reports further affected the market outlook. Forecasts show U.S. crude inventories will fall by 2.6 million barrels, while distillate and gasoline inventories are expected to rise. These insights provided by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) are critical for traders to gauge supply levels. Yesterday (December 26) crude oil closed up. Last week, the weekly closed positive for the second week and rebounded. But whether it can continue is a question. Whether it continues to close positive this week or turns negative and falls back will determine the direction of the market outlook.
The 1-hour chart tested twice near 76 and was suppressed. Today we still need to pay attention to the pressure break at the high point. It is currently rebounding, but whether it can continue further requires breaking through the resistance of 76 to open up space. Below, focus on the two previous lows of 73.2 and 72.5. If they fall below, it means the end of this stage of the rise.
If you currently hold orders, you can send them to me and I will give reasonable suggestions based on the market conditions!
Things to note when trading crude oil this week! Day analysiTraders this week must contend with both declining liquidity and potential tensions caused by Yemen's Houthi rebels. If the shipping crisis in the Red Sea region persists, it will not only provide some support for WTI crude oil prices this week, but also create opportunities for speculative buying.
Traders will need to be cautious about risk management this week due to the Christmas holiday. WTI crude oil bears may believe that there will be a high technical reversal, and they will also pay attention to Middle East shipping news.
Last week, the market fluctuated upward, and closed the positive line with a long upper and lower shadow line, indicating that the market was more volatile. However, the market is still running below the 20-day moving average, and the overall trend is still bearish. During the day, focus on the first-line pressure of $74 at the top and the first-line support of $72.0 at the bottom. At present, the technical indicators have completely turned bearish, and it is recommended to mainly go short on the rebound!
USOIL: 22/12O European market suggestionAngola said it would withdraw from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), raising questions about the producer group's efforts to support prices by limiting global supply. In the 4-hour chart, after falling below the middle track and back-testing the lower track, it holds the sub-low and rebounds above the lower track to regain the middle track. The 4-hour chart is a rapid downward rebound, seeking support and correction, and then continuing upward. In the short term, use 73.8 as a defensive support point, and then adjust your thinking if it breaks below.
But as long as the low point of the step is not broken, the trend remains unchanged. On the whole, it is suggested that the short-term operation of crude oil should focus on the first-line resistance of 76.0 at the top and the first-line support of 73.8 at the bottom.
Continue to look for low prices to buy. If you want to get the latest signals, you can contact me↓
Oil operation suggestions for next weekAngola may increase oil production after it withdraws from OPEC. However, good news about the U.S. economy and attacks on ships in the Red Sea caused hundreds of ships to change routes and increase delivery costs, causing oil prices to fall before the Christmas holiday weekend. Although oil prices rose about 3% this week, crude oil prices still posted their largest weekly gain in two months.
Technically we see crude oil futures support at 72.5 and resistance at 75.3. This week, the 30-minute long and short trend has repeatedly appeared. Crude oil continued to fall before the close on Friday, and the short energy distribution continued to build up at $74 to suppress the market.
From a daily perspective, crude oil fell in late trading on Friday, and profit-taking before holidays is a very normal operation. Judging from the current technical indicators, it has completely turned short. It is recommended to focus on rebounding and shorting!
The specific direction will be decided after the market opens on Tuesday.