USOIL: 8/12 crude oil market analysisCrude oil (USOIL): Crude oil opened at 69.7 today and rose by 7 US dollars in the morning. Yesterday, we planned to go short near the daily pressure of 70. In the afternoon, it broke through the 70.4 line and stopped falling at the 68.8 line in the evening. We successfully made a profit, but It did not fall to my ideal point of 68, but has since rebounded and returned to the 70.4 line. At the end of today's weekly line, the market has been volatile, so we have to be on guard and be more prudent in our layout. The top focus will be on the 71.2 area. After the bullish sentiment in crude oil is released, it is time for us to take action! !
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Usoil:Gradually buy
From a technical point of view, the oil is already oversold
You can try to buy oil gradually at 69.4 now and control your position, so that your success rate will be greatly increased.
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USOIL: How does crude oil trade today? ↓Crude oil (USOIL): Crude oil broke the bottom yesterday and stopped at 69.1. It opened at 69.2 today and rebounded at 69.8 in the morning. The trend is not much different from the morning trading of the previous two days, and the trend continues to be bearish! The Japanese K has fallen for five consecutive times, and the short sellers have almost reached the bottom. If the 68 position below cannot be supported anymore, the short sellers will continue to attack 63. However, at the current position, we have to be wary of the bulls’ counterattack. After all, the current position has also reached the daily line. support! Today, the top will focus on the 70.1/70.2 area, and the bottom will first look at the 68 break.
USOIL: Crude oil analysis today, continues to fallCrude oil (USOIL/XTIUSD): Yesterday, crude oil entered the market as planned and harvested profits, reaching a perfect position of 72.2, with a profit of 140pips. Today it opened at 72.1, rising by 5 US dollars in the morning and then falling back, similar to the trend of the previous two days. The bulls resisted tenaciously in the morning. Although there is strong support at the low level to resist the decline, the downward trend remains unchanged. The focus is on the 72.9/73.4 position at the top today. With the strength of the shorts, we are firmly bearish on the acceleration of the bottom break!
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Usoil:forecast
Oil was supported near 72, has now risen, has broken through the downward trend, and is now in shock
If the oil does not fall below the important support of 72 this week, we can be sure that the oil may have reached a phased bottom.
So this week we need to pay important attention to the support strength of 72. If it falls below, the oil will look for the bottom again, and it may reach the important support of the monthly line near 68, so this week is very critical.
I judge that if it does not fall below 72 this week, oil will sprint to 79.7 again. If it falls below this important support, observe the monthly support of 68-70.
Pay attention to OPEC news, Saudi Arabia and Russia do not want oil prices to fall, if the oil reaches the monthly support point, you can choose to buy
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Usoil:Waiting to choose the direction
OPEC has not taken a real approach to enforce compliance with selective production cuts, and the production cuts are expected to continue until the first quarter of 2024.Since OPEC's meager production cuts of one million barrels per day are unlikely to offset the impact of the decline in global crude oil demand, it is expected that there may be an oversupply of oil in the coming months.
Judging from the chart, oil is still in a downward trend, but the support below 72 is very strong, so we need to observe the support of 72-72.2 and wait for the oil to choose the direction.
So you can try to buy and strictly observe the support point to make a stop loss, because it is a downtrend, you can also wait for the rebound to the resistance point to sell, so that your success rate is greatly increased
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Usoil:The impact of the OPEC+ meeting
Severe storms in the Black Sea region interrupted Kazakhstan and Russia's oil exports of up to 2 million barrels per day.The Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan said that the average daily oil production of Kazakhstan's largest oilfield will be reduced by 56%.This has led to the possibility of short-term supply constraints and pushed up crude oil prices.Secondly, a report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed that U.S. crude oil and distillate stocks unexpectedly increased last week, indicating weak demand.Although gasoline inventories increased more than expected, these effects were offset by the large consumption of other refined products such as fuel oil.This has also played a certain supporting role in the rise in crude oil prices.
Investors' attention to the results of the upcoming OPEC+ meeting has also pushed up crude oil prices to a certain extent.The OPEC+ Group of Oil Producing Countries will decide on the level of oil production in 2024 at the meeting.So we must pay attention to the final result of the OPEC+ meeting
I also said yesterday that oil is still above the trend line and maintains an upward trend, reaching a maximum of 78.75 today.
So you can still buy at the support point today, or it will be more secure to wait for the meeting before trading.
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Usoil:Will it continue to break through?
Yesterday I said that oil has broken through the downward trend, and now it is blocked from falling in the middle of the trend line.
If it continues to fall, we need to observe the support strength of 76-76.3
So you can buy gradually in this range, because the OPEC meeting is still uncertain, if it falls below the range, you need to strictly set the stop loss
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Usoil:Will it continue to fall?
The OPEC meeting originally scheduled for November 26th will be postponed to November 30th, and OPEC will change to an online meeting on November 30th, which will affect the trend of oil.
Oil has always been weak, volatile and falling
Observe the support strength of the support range 73.7-74.1 of the last rebound
If it falls below this support range, oil may reach near 72 again
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Usoil:What exactly is OPEC+ going to do?
I reminded yesterday that oil fell rapidly because of the postponement of the OPEC+ meeting, but the final time was set to be held again on November 30, so oil prices began to rebound yesterday.
As can be seen from the chart, the trend of oil after the rebound is relatively weak, and today it did not break through the point where it started to fall at 77 yesterday.
So today you can still choose to sell below 77. If you break through 77.2, you need to re-observe. As long as you strictly set the stop loss and follow my trading, your success rate will be greatly increased.
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Usoil:Observe the trend line
OPEC+ will hold a meeting this weekend, and WTI oil traders will face significant risks.If more and longer production cuts are announced at the OPEC+ meeting, oil prices may pick up
As can be seen from the chart, oil has been in an upward trend, but it has not broken through the middle edge of the trend line.
So we are still waiting to fall to the support point to buy, strictly set the stop loss, and continue to observe the strength of 78.4 and 79.5 resistance, so that your success rate will be greatly improved
It can be observed that the support of the trend line is near 75.7
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USOIL: Today's analysis
Oil prices rebounded sharply on Friday, largely erasing a nearly 4% loss from the previous session as investors wavered over whether Opec would deepen its decision to cut production. Today's strong breakthrough of the first pressure level, the follow-up focus on the breakthrough of the second pressure level!
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Usoil:Will oil rise today?
Oil was blocked from the middle edge of the trend line yesterday and began to fall
As long as oil breaks through 78.4, there is still a lot of room for growth above, so the resistance of 78.4 is still observed today.
Oil is still on the upward trend for the time being, so you can still choose to buy at the support point
You need to strictly set the stop loss every time you trade, so that even if the trend changes, you can reduce your losses.
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Usoil:The prediction is correct
This is my forecast in the morning. Now that the oil has risen to the middle edge of the trend line, observe the resistance of 78.4.
Judging from the news, the OPEC+ meeting is discussing further production cuts, which may intensify tensions with the United States. At the same time, the market is focusing on whether Saudi Arabia and Russia will extend voluntary production cuts to 2024.Based on the comprehensive assessment of the core member states such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, based on their own interests, they are expected to do their best to maintain the stability of the crude oil market, and there is still some room for short-term prices to rebound.
I also reminded last week that oil is rebounding
From the chart, you can see that the oil has broken through the trend line, and now you need to observe the resistance above.
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Usoil:Where is the bottom?
The EIA report shows that the inventory of Cushing crude oil in the key hub of the United States has increased, rising to the highest level since August last year.In addition, the monthly report of the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that oil shipments in October increased by 4.6% year-on-year to 31 million barrels per day.Oil supply increased by 3.2% in October to 28.8 million barrels per day.Oil production increased by 6.1% in October to 13.1 million barrels per day, a record high, an increase of 53,000 barrels per day sequentially.U.S. oil companies are taking advantage of high oil prices to sell oil quickly, and they may also smell some less optimistic news in the future.
However, it should be noted that the OPEC+ meeting is about to be held on November 26th. The decline in oil prices has increased the pressure on Saudi Arabia, Russia and other OPEC+ members. They may continue to maintain their production reduction plans and even ask other countries besides Saudi Arabia and Russia to join the reduction team.
Oil is now on a downward trend, because of the rapid decline yesterday, it is now rebounding
From a technical point of view, oil prices have returned to near the low point in early July. If they fall again, it will test the low point of the year, but I think the weekly level of 67-70 is not so easy to be broken.
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USOIL: Summary of the week
The original income this week was more than 10k, after experiencing CPI data, crude oil fell sharply to 72.2, down nearly 500 points, and rose all the way to near 76 on Friday, basically recovering the decline, next week focus on the break near 76!
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USOIL: Trend analysis and operation strategy
EIA released nearly two weeks of inventory data, a cumulative increase of 17.5 million barrels, more than expected accumulation led to a rapid decline in the disk, of which crude oil inventories reached 439 million barrels in the week of November 3, a higher since August. In addition, the market expects Saudi Arabia to extend production cuts until January next year. At present, the accumulation of expectations is deepening, and the upward movement of crude oil prices is blocked. Yesterday, oil prices on the technical side of the weak unilateral downward trend, ASEM slightly back pressure 76.6 line down to break the bottom, the evening accelerated down to 75 and 74 two integer marks, and continued to close weak near the 72 mark, the Japanese line Baoshu pressure down to break the bottom bardo, closed at a low level for three consecutive days. Oil prices fell 4.81% yesterday, closing large negative line, the decline has accelerated signs. From the perspective of technical indicators, the moving average system helped the downward form to be complete, and the superimposed MACD was located below the zero axis for a long time, and the overall form had obvious short advantages. On the operation, it is recommended to consider the rebound and short, low and many are auxiliary.
WTI Crude Oil Handling Recommendations:
Strategy 1: Rebound near 74.5-75.2 short entry, stop loss 0.6 points, target 72.6-72.2 line;
Strategy two: Callback 72.2-72.5 near multiple single entry, stop loss 0.6 points, the target 74.0-75.0 line.
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USOIL: Technical analysis and operational strategy
Us EIA crude oil inventories for the week to November 10 were released yesterday afternoon, showing a rise of 3.6 million barrels to 421.9 million barrels, expectations for a rise of 1.793 million barrels, the previous value of 13.869 million barrels, negative for oil prices. With global demand for crude oil slowing and supply increasing, some analysts believe that Saudi Arabia may extend the voluntary additional production cut of 1 million barrels per day into January or even longer, and the OPEC+ meeting next weekend (November 26) needs to be closely watched. Crude oil yesterday bardo line back. The early week of the rising space back up nearly half, and closed at the low level, the daily line to weaken again, the previous rebound was only a flash in the pan. 4-hour chart a wave of negative line reversion. Continued the previous trading day's high fall, fell below the middle rail to weaken, but also broke the small step shock to rise low, 4-hour chart empty, the rebound at the beginning of the week as a correction to confirm the resistance, but also just confirmed the previous low 79.80 area resistance, with the Asian market close down, Europe and the United States will further see the weak down.
WTI Crude Oil Handling Recommendations:
Strategy 1: Rebound 77.5-77.2 near the short entry, stop loss 0.6 points, the target 75.6-75.2 line;
Strategy two: Callback 75.2-75.6 near multiple single entry, stop loss 0.6 points, the target 77.0-77.5 line.
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usoil: accurate signal
Crude oil's downtrend continues, testing support at $72. Anticipate another decline after reaching around $74. If you have long positions in crude oil, consider closing near $74 and following the trend by shorting. Personally, I expect crude oil to reach $70 in the near term before resuming an upward trend.
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Usoil:Is it back to the downtrend?
Yesterday, oil fell rapidly, broke below the five-day line, and returned to the downward trend again. From the chart, it can be seen that 75-76 has certain support.
We need to observe the support strength of the previous low of 75. If it falls below the previous low, the room for decline will be opened.
So we can short and sell along the resistance point
now you can observe the fluctuations in the range, which is 74.9-77.4
Trading needs to strictly set the stop loss, even if you are in the wrong direction, you will not lose too much.
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Usoil:Repeated shocks
Oil peaked at around 79.8 yesterday. Due to signs that tensions in the Middle East may ease and uncertainty about U.S. crude oil inventories, it fell to near 77.7 yesterday.
As can be seen from the daily line, the price has been supported and stabilized near the lower Bollinger band, and has emerged from a continuous rebound trend. Although the price fell after the increase yesterday, it did not fall below the important support position of 77.5.
So we can still choose to buy in the support range, but you need to strictly set the stop loss to prevent the oil from falling further.
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USOIL: Crude oil analysis and operation
Oil prices rose and fell, and the U.S. CPI data released in the evening showed that the annual rate of CPI reached 3.2%, the lowest since July this year, boosting market risk appetite. After the data was released, the dollar fell sharply, risk assets rebounded, and oil prices quickly pulled up from the intra-day low, but the final oil price did not hold the intra-day rise, and the intra-day rise was completely reversed after midnight from the high level! Yesterday reached the upper 79.70 line high fall, the daily line includes a small Yin line entity, after the oil price even three Yang is Yin, further indicating that the rise has come to an end, the market has entered a new trend. The pullback in oil prices late yesterday changed the previous bullish pattern, so today's trend may be volatile or down, and the probability of continuing to break is low, of course, focusing on EIA data guidance.
WTI Crude Oil Handling Recommendations:
Strategy 1: Rebound 79.5-79.2 near the short entry, stop loss 0.6 points, the target 77.6-77.8 line;
Strategy two: Callback 77.6-77.8 near multiple single entry, stop loss 0.6 points, the target 79.0-79.5 line.
Good trading opportunities within the day Additional tips!