USOIL Daily analysis, Bearish Reversal possibilityHello everyone, as we all know the market action discounts everything :)
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The WTI/USD is giving a lot of bearish signs for the next few days movement and has dropped from the 73.81 range and reached 68.16 yesterday, the price has crossed the support line at 70.36 and closed below it which turned that support line into a resistance line now, and that the price of the market is looking bearish for the time being.
A trade through 69.19 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 74.23 will change the main trend to up.
A 3 Black Crow pattern has appeared on the daily chart which usually indicates a bearish reversal.
So we might be seeing 2 Scenarios before this week ends :
Scenario 1 :
The price will drop even more and hit the support line at 66.15, and a battle will happen between the Bears and the Bulls and the Bulls will try to get that control back.
if the Bulls were able to get control over the market then we should be seeing the price bouncing back up to 70.36.
Scenario 2 :
Just like in scenario 1 the price will drop and hit 66.15, but the outcome here will be in favor of the bears and the bulls will not be able to gain control over the market until the price reaches another support line.
If the Bears were able to hold control then we could be seeing the price dropping even more and could be headed for the 61.68 range where the support line will be waiting to be tested.
Technical indicators confirming this bearish movement as we see that :
1) The market price is below the 5 10 20 and 50 MA and EMA (Bullish sign), but still above the 100 and 200 so for the long-term trend we could still see the market Bullish.
2) The MACD crossed the zero line showing the change of the market to a Bullish state, with a negative crossover between the MACD line and the signal line (sell signal)
3) The STOCH is in a Bearish state with a negative crossover between %K and %D, a divergence has been found between the Market price and the Indicator which could indicate a reversal
Support & Resistance points :
support Resistance
1) 69.27 1) 71.99
2) 67.97 2) 73.41
3) 66.55 3) 74.71
Fundamental point of view :
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are trading lower on Wednesday as growing concerns over potential demand destruction in the United States and China, due to the spread of the coronavirus Delta variant, offset potentially bullish geopolitical developments in the Middle East and another draw in domestic oil inventories.
According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), U.S. crude inventories fell by 879,000 barrels for the week ended July 30. Gasoline inventories fell by 5.8 million barrels and distillate stocks fell by 717,000 barrels, the data showed.
Official Energy Information Administration numbers are due later on Wednesday at 14:30 GMT. Traders are looking for a draw of 3.2 million barrels. According to FXEmpire
This is my personal opinion done with technical analysis of the market price and research online from fundamental analysts for The Fundamental point of view, not financial advice.
If you have any questions please ask and have a great day !!
Thank you for reading.
