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Ussmallcaps
MACRO MONDAY 33 ~ U.S. NFIB Business Optimism Index MACRO MONDAY 33 ~ NFIB
National Federation of Independent Business Index (NFIB)
Released Tuesday 13th Feb 2024
Think of the NFIB small business index as a sentiment index, a sort of mood meter for small businesses. The higher the index, the more optimistic small businesses will be about spending more, expanding and increasing or maintaining employees.
The NFIB is the nation’s largest small business advocacy group, with more than 600,000 members from all 50 states. Members are typically small to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). These small businesses account for roughly 50% of the nation's private workforce and contribute to 44% of all U.S. economic activity making them an extremely important cohort to monitor and survey for economic purposes.
The NFIB Index data
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (chart data) is a composite of ten seasonally adjusted components calculated based on the answers of around 620 of the NFIB members. The survey questions cover various aspects of business sentiment, such as hiring plans, sales expectations, capital expenditure plans, and overall economic outlook. The Index figure is derived from all the survey responses, weighted and aggregated to produce a composite score that reflects the sentiment and economic outlook of small business owners.
Baseline Level (100): The baseline level of 100 is often considered the neutral point on the NFIB Index. An index value of 100 indicates that small business owners are neither optimistic nor pessimistic about economic conditions. Values above 100 indicate optimism, while values below 100 indicate pessimism.
On the chart below I note the relevance of the sub 91.5 level as a breach of this level has historically preceded or coincided with recessions (grey areas).
The Chart
The chart is fairly straightforward in that the green zone illustrates the optimistic zone (>100), the pessimistic zone is orange (<100) and the recession zone is red (<91.5).
At present we are moving out of recessionary territory into the pessimism zone which is an improvement but we are a long way from the neutral level of 100. Expectations for Tuesdays release is a slight move higher towards 92.4. If we do move to 92.4 it will be the highest level recorded since June 2022.
NFIB Negative Divergences
Here is a supplemental chart that illustrates how the NFIB small business sentiment index has presented clear negative divergences against the S&P 500 during the last three recessions.
In addition to the negative divergences, thereafter the following trigger events marked the beginning of thee significant drawdown events of each recession;
1⃣ The NFIB index breached below the 100 level in Oct 2000 prior to the Dot. Com Crash
2⃣ The NFIB index breached below the 91.5 index level in April 2008 prior to the GFC capitulation event
3⃣ The NFIB index breached both the 100 (Mar 2020) and 91.5 (Apr 2020) index level during the COVID Crash.
In summary the negative divergences signaled the initial warning signs of recessions, thereafter losing key levels such as the 100 level and 91.5 level signaled the main draw down event initiation.
Not all negative divergences resulted in a recession or poor price action and not all recessions came about after a breach of the 100 level however, both in combination add weight to the probability (but no guarantee's). This chart should not be viewed in isolation but should be added to our other charts to help gauge the likelihood of negative and positive outcomes.
At present the small cap 2000 index is significantly under performing other stock indices which are breaking past all time highs. The small cap 2000 TVC:RUT adds weight to the struggling smaller businesses in the U.S. when combined with the under performing pessimistic reading of the NFIB small business index. A significantly positive reading on the NFIB could be a leading signal that small caps could start to perform again, catching up with the other indices. A negative reading might suggest the small caps 2000 will continue to lag and struggle.
Lets see how we fair on Tuesday for the release of January 2024's survey results
PUKA
Lets see how we fair on Tuesday for the release of January 2024's survey results
PUKA
US Small Cap 3000 at important levelUS Small Cap 3000 - TVC:RUA
Chart is approaching an important boundary
Pennant has clearly formed, compressing price
An upward sloping 200 SMA which is also acting as price support is a positive feature
Lets see how we deal with this diagonal resistance over coming weeks
PUKA
General Major Market Indices - An Overview of the MarketGeneral Major Market Indices
These six market indices give a very good snapshot of where we are in this difficult to discern market and why uncertainty still lingers as we continue to climb a wall of worry.
The Chart
▫️ Every index 1 - 6 below has been rejected or is struggling to make new highs on the weekly timeframe.
▫️ At the same time each chart appears to be finding support on the 200 day moving average (40 week moving average). You could argue that ascending triangles are forming, in which scenario we would await a confirmation breakout above the upper resistance line.
▫️ Charts 1 – 3 appear to be leading charts 4 – 6
- You can see that the DJ:DJT , TVC:DJI and TVC:XMI charts
(Charts 1 – 3) have all attempted to break above the
overhead resistance and have been rejected or are
struggling to break through.
- Conversely the CBOE:SPX , NASDAQ:NDX and TVC:RUA charts
(Charts 4 – 6) have made lower highs and have not
yet reached up and even tested the overhead
resistance... For this reason these charts are
showing relative weakness.
▫️ In prior Macro Mondays it was made very clear that Charts 1 – 3 can provide advance warning of recession and or bear market declines ahead of charts such as 4 – 6. Charts 4 - 6 are showing relative weakness and appear to be lagging charts 1 - 3, for this reason revisiting this snapshot would be beneficial to see can we get a lead on the S&P500, Nasdaq and US Small Caps. This in turn could give us a lead on the entire market.
▫️ At present we are above the 200 day moving average on every chart and the 200 day moving average is sloping upwards ✅
- This is positive and would reinforce an ascending
triangle thesis however at this stage, looking at all
the charts a definitive break above the overhead
resistance line would be a preferred entry with
stop losses placed under that resistance line thats
been broken.
- A revisit of the 200 day moving average could also
be another entry consideration, simply because
again you have stop placed under the 200 moving
average, defined entries with defined stops under
them.
In summary, charts 1 – 3 can act as leading indicators of where price will go next in the general market. Charts 4 – 6 are showing relative weakness, potentially making lower highs however this could change in coming weeks as a strong green candle is challenging the recent highs. Ideally we want to see a definitive break above the overhead resistance levels and we would rather not see further overhead rejections or a breach below the 200 day moving average.
The beauty of Trading View is that you can revisit this exact chart on my page, press play and see if we have we broken through the resistance lines or fallen below the 200 day moving average, all at a glance. Be sure to make use of it to save you the time and effort of reviewing every chart. You can get a the jist of these major indices all with a glance. Regardless I will do my best to update you here on X.
If you like these broader analysis covering multiple stocks in particular index's or in particular sectors, please let me know.
What are the components of each index?
- This is for those of you who are unsure what each index is made up of and what they represent.
1. Dow Jones Transportation Index - DJ:DJT
- The Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT) is a price-weighted average of 20 key transportation stocks traded in the United States.
- The transportation sector acts as a leading indicator as it is further up the value chain ahead of the final products being sold by companies in Dow Jones Industrial Average $DJI. For this reason, in some circumstances we can use the DJT as a helpful leading indicator for the direction of the economy
2. Dow Jones Industrial Index – SDJI
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones, or simply the Dow, is a stock market index of 30 prominent companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The DJIA is one of the oldest and most commonly followed equity indexes
3. Arca Major Markets Index - TVC:XMI
- The XMI is an overlooked chart often utilized by OG traders has been referenced by Sentiment Trader as a leading market index. XMI is a price weighted index consisting of 20 blue chip U.S Industrial Stocks, 17 of which are also in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Within the index there is surprising blend of stocks that include transport, travel, food, pharma, energy and technology.
4. S&P 500 - CBOE:SPX
- The Standard and Poor's 500, or simply the S&P 500, is a stock market index tracking the stock performance of 500 of the largest companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices.
5. NASDAQ 100 - NASDAQ:NDX
- The technology index, the Nasdaq-100 is a market index made up of 101 equity securities issued by 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. It is a modified capitalization-weighted index and includes the likes of NVIDIA and the MAANG stocks (Meta, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google)
6. US SMALL CAP 3000 - TVC:RUA
- Small-cap stocks are defined as having a market capitalization between $300 million and $2 Billion. Examples would be Upstart and Victoria's Secret.
Thanks guys
PUKA
US Small Cap 2000 - Bears are in controlUS2000 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 1785 (stop at 1805)
Buying pressure from 1720 resulted in prices rejecting the dip. The current move higher is expected to continue. The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower.
Our profit targets will be 1730 and 1630
Resistance: 1780 / 1830 / 1875
Support: 1725 / 1630 / 1530
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
US Small Cap 2000 - Bears are in controlUS Small Cap 2000 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 1790 (stop at 1810)
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. A higher correction is expected. With the Ichimoku cloud resistance above we expect gains to be limited. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower.
Our profit targets will be 1730 and 1630
Resistance: 1780 / 1830 / 1875
Support: 1725 / 1630 / 1555
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Selling rallies on US2000USDUS2000USD - Intraday - We look to Sell at 1880 (stop at 1910)
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. We are trading at oversold extremes. The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower.
Our profit targets will be 1790 and 1730
Resistance: 1830 / 1935 / 2025
Support: 1785 / 1730 / 1640
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
The bias is still for higher levels on US Russ 2000US Russ 2000 - Intraday - We look to Buy at 1870 (stop at 1845)
Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. We are trading at overbought extremes. A lower correction is expected. The bias is still for higher levels and we look for any dips to be limited. Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
Our profit targets will be 1940 and 2020
Resistance: 1950 / 2020 / 2140
Support: 1890 / 1830 / 1760
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'