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U.S. Stock Market: What To Expect In 2023? 2022 has become the most volatile year in a decade: the world economy is going through tough times, central banks are struggling with high inflation, and the stock market has been under pressure from a bearish trend since the beginning of the year. Will the situation change in 2023 and what should investors expect? The main reason for the decline in the U.S. stock market this year has been higher inflation and the U.S. Federal Reserve's (Fed) response to curb inflation. June saw record inflation data which broke a 40-year high and cemented a bearish trend in the market which had been going on since the beginning of the year. As history shows, the average bear market since World War II has lasted 14 months and resulted in declines of more than 30% from previous highs. The current trend has now lasted more than 11 months. From this, we can conclude that statistically speaking, we are two-thirds of the way through. In addition, one of the fundamental reasons why the market will show strong growth soon is the excess of money from investors. A serious bear market forms precisely when people start selling stocks when they are in need of money. Right now, investors are selling stocks simply because they are afraid of losing value. But such corrections always come to an end pretty quickly, replaced by an equally tumultuous rise. Investors are holding huge amounts of cash right now, and the money supply is at record levels. That gives confidence that markets will rebound quickly. Better now is the opportunity to buy companies with strong financial fundamentals at a discounted price. In addition, inflation in the U.S. continues to slow: November data showed a decline to 7.1%, which exceeded analysts' expectations. The dynamics of inflation and the rate of its slowdown are a certain signal of the Fed's successful policy, giving additional hope to stock market participants that the regulator will start easing its monetary policy this year. Basically, experts consider three scenarios for the U.S. economy this year: Optimistic Scenario. Economic activity continues to slow down, and the economy remains under pressure, but growth remains at 1%. Inflation slows at an accelerated pace, and the Fed may cut the rate to 4.25%, by the end of 2023. Moderate Recession. The economy may experience a mild recession during the first half of 2023, but by the second half of 2023, economic activity recovers, the Fed cuts the rate to 4.75%, and signals further easing of monetary policy while maintaining a downward trend in inflation. Stagflation. This scenario is based on a more sustained inflation trend in 2023, which encourages the Fed to take more aggressive steps and allows rates to be cut only to 5.5% at the end of 2023. However, the likelihood of this scenario developing is very low, as inflation is already showing a good rate of deceleration. At the same time, some believe that the U.S. can avoid a recession this year and go with the optimistic scenario. The stock market is supported by strong economic macro data and some issuers have already proven their ability to withstand a rate hike. The stock market has fallen on fears and expectations last year, but in such situations, fear quickly changes to euphoria. There is potential in the U.S. stock market, and we should not rule out the possibility that the S&P 500 index could gain 15% in 2023 from current positions.
SP:SPXLong
by FOREXN1
17
"Biting Point" Signal in Every Turn for 2022Stay-tune for the video version shortly, we will do more in-depth study. Micro E-Mini Nasdaq Futures Minimum fluctuation 0.25 point = $0.5 1 point = $2 10 points = $20 100 points = $200 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com I hope this tutorial will be helpful, in enabling you to read into the market with greater clarity.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Short
by konhow
1
SPX500: When is the right time to buy?SPX will soon touch the buy zone near 3500-3700. Marked by green rectangle in the chart, this is very crucial zone for the following reasons: 1. This zone is supported by long-term, uptrend channel. 2. It is also supported by short-term, downtrend channel. 3. Market has already recovered from this zone once. Here are also fundamental reasons to believe why this is an important zone. 1. US Inflation, which peaked at 9.1% in Jun-22, is now reversing. It dropped to 7.1% on Nov-22 and is expected to continue downtrend. However, caution is advised that the figure of 7.1% is still alarming. 2. Oil is witnessing a downtrend. It is almost halfway ($75 a barrel) from the peak of $130 a barrel. I don't see the market flying high from the buy point, but profit is possible for swing traders and accumulation for investors.
SP:SPXLong
by starringinvestors
LKNCY - Breakout Entered Advance StageLKNCY has made a powerful breakout from its accumulation zone. This breakthrough came on the back of strong quarterly earnings, positive net income, and growing revenue. INTRODUCTION: LKNCY is a strong rival of Starbucks in China. It is rapidly adding new stores, reaching the nationwide number of nearly 8,000. In contrast, Starbucks has 6,000 stores in China despite its decades-long presence. BREAKOUT & ADVANCE STAGE: When a stock enters Advance Stage (called as Stage-2), its movement gets fast particularly when it is supported by strong earnings. LKNCY stayed in Accumulation Zone (Stage-1) rangebound for almost 2 years while the company did not post positive earnings for many years. But now, it has broken the resistance of accumulation stage, and entered advance stage on the back of impressive quarterly earnings. EARNINGS GROWTH Luckin's post-quarter revenue is up 18% while post-quarter earning has expanded a whopping 561%. Its earning trend and footprint growth in China shows it to be a truly growth stock. It has had negative margin for the past few years which kept its price growth lurking and slow. However, its revenue growth has never slowed down because of its rapid expansion and widening customer base. FUTURE PROSPECTS Although not enough data is available about the future growth of LKNCY, its current growth trend reveal good prospects for the future. Its technicals are sound and financials are rapidly improving.
OTC:LKNCYLong
by starringinvestors
3
SPX500 - Points You Must Know You may already be aware what I am going to tell. But I suggest learn these points again! Stock Market is in a Downtrend US Stock Market is in a strong downtrend. This downtrend began in January-2022 when soaring inflation straddled the market. There is high volatility as evident by wide swings between down-trending channel. These wide swings show uncertainty, chaos and confusion - you'd know it more when you compare it with smooth long-term uptrend which followed post-Covid situation. Stock Market is also Following a Long-term Up-trending Channel Kick-Start since 2009 when financial crisis faded, US stock market has been lead and guided by a long-term up-trending channel. This channel has often provided support as well as resistance to the market except when Covid-19 occurred which caused a down-spike for a brief period. It is highly probable that the same channel will continue to guide the market. There is a Point of Confluence Past Long-term up-trending channel & current down-trending channel have a point of confluence shown by light red circle. At this point of confluence, SPX500 has a already taken support once. If the market comes down, it is possible that it again takes support somewhere near to the point of confluence. PRECAUTIONS TO TAKE 1. Avoid high-debt stock unless a company shows drastically increasing profit-margin 2. Avoid a stock below 200 MA unless it takes a reversal 3. Keep cash in hand to add when dust is settled 4. Better to spend this time in learning rather than in trading
SP:SPX
by starringinvestors
Trading Series – The Buy StrategyI am starting a new Trading Series, the whole idea is to create longevity in our trading career, meaning trading should not be a short-live adventure, but we should trade till right into our retirement age. We all may have read that many build-up their fortunes through business, investing or even trading and suddenly most of their net worth reduced substantially overnight, and this is what I mean they are running it without longevity. Trading is a very fulfilling job and can be non-stressful when we understanding there is a framework to recognise opportunity and risk from the markets. Our role in this job is to eyeball both that trading opportunities and risks and then make decisions from there whenever we identify either one of them. I am going to share with you my experience on how to do that in this whole series – Today we will discuss The Buy Strategy, in the next part, we will discuss the sell strategy. And the subsequent parts on the different strategies and how to manage our trades and trading fund into longevity. Content: The buy strategy – it can be applied to both: · Long-term · Short-term Minimum fluctuation 1 index point = $5 10 = $50 100 = $500 There is the micro as well. It is one tenth the size of the E-mini. Very manageable especially for those aspiring traders. Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by konhow
Observation of Recent Trends & A Likely Reversal; SPX500Good Day All, By looking at the first four days of November, it clearly shows a downtrend which resulted in more than 5% reduction in SPX500 levels. But slowly and steadily Prices are recovering and heading for the consolidation zone that is from 3830 - 3870, The 40 point range and the price's behavior will determine whether it'll be bullish/bearish, but judging from the key levels marked in black, though some may call it outdated, I have observed prices in many unique pairs almost always respecting levels of old. To conclude, I hope prices will continue its bullish trend past the consolidation zone for reasoning which may not sound logical but then again, I'm still new to this. If indeed by rare occurrence someone decides to use this prediction, please do your own analysis first and foremost, while i don't mind my idea helping others, I wouldn't like to see others fail alongside me due to my own. Take Profit 1 : 3855 Take Profit 2 : 3870 Stop Loss : 3790 Possible Prediction Expiry Date & Rules: If Price Breaks Out of Bounds & A Week Or So.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by xevious000
1
SPX Weekly Volatility Forecast 31/10 - 04/11 2022 SPX Weekly Volatility Forecast 31/10 - 04/11 2022 Currently the volatility for this week is around 3.57% , up from expected 3.4% last week. According to ATR calculation, currently the volatility is located around 72th percentile. Under this circumstances the expected movement of the candle is : BEAR : 2.6% from the opening point of the weekly candle BULL : 2.8% from the opening point of the weekly candle At the same time, currently there is 10.8% that the movement within this weekly candle is going to break and close either above or below the next channel: TOP: 4044 BOT: 3778 Lastly, taking into account the previous weekly high and low there is a : 79% chance that we are going to touch the previous week high 27% chance that we are going to touch the previous week low
CME_MINI:ES1!
by exlux
SP500 Weekly Volatility Forecast 26-30 September SP500 Weekly Volatility Forecast 26-30 September Currently our volatility coming from volatility token for SPX is at 4.15%, increasing from 3.41% last week, located on 80th percentile, placing us in a high volatility environment Based on the previous calculations, there is currently a 10% chance that the asset is going to break the channel(the weekly candle it will close above/below) TOP 3831 BOT 3578 At the same time, based on the previous calculations: - There is a 35% chance that the previous high from last week of 3933is going to be touched - There is a 65%chance that the previous low from last week of 3660 is going to be touched We can deduct that we have a much higher probability to have a continuation of bearish candle than bullish. On average the weekly candle when the asset was located around this percentile are 2.51% for bull candles and 2.76% for the bear candles from the opening price. From the fundamental point of view, news that can affect this asset price this week: - Core Durable release, CB Consumer confidence and Powell Speech for Tuesday 27 Sep - Powell Speech for Wednesday 28 Sep - US GDP and Jobless Claims coming on Thursday 29 Sep - Core PCE on Friday 29 Sep Overall I believe for this week there is higher chance due to the overall global activity to have another bearish weekly candle.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by exlux