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UST

LUNA/BUSD Daily TA Cautiously BearishLUNA/BUSD Daily cautiously bearish. *Congressional Research Service posted a short report on the LUNA:UST peg collapse and covers mostly everything aside from the bad actors who exploited this vulnerability. They also make mention of rumors that LFG didn't sell their reserves to protect the peg, which one can see on LFG's reserves dashboard are false.* Recommended ratio: 6% LUNA, 94% cash. Price remains trending sideways under $0.00020 as the Terra governance community will decide on whether or not to fork tomorrow. Volume has waned but remains very high and is on track to favor sellers for three consecutive sessions if it can close today in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $24.30, this margin is bullish. RSI remains flatlining at the ATL of 14.25 for a sixth consecutive session. Stochastic also remains flatlining at max bottom for a sixth consecutive session. MACD remains bearish and is still trending sideways at the ATL (-24.65) established in yesterday's session, if it can get above -20 it would be a bullish crossover. ADX continues to trend up at 47 as Price continues to see choppy trading at fractions of a cent, this is bearish. If Price is able to get back above $0.01 then the next likely target is a test of $0.27. However, the alternative would be continued chop at fractions of a cent; which is a modest sign of consolidation. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $0.01. **Anybody trading LUNA should be prepared for more volatility leading up to tomorrow's vote.** ***Anybody investing in LUNA should have a time horizon of 1 year or more and will need to wait for tomorrow's vote for more clarity regarding Luna's future.***
L
by dailytaguy
2
UST has only 59 million USD in reserves and MCAP of 1.4bn, OHUST has a 59 million USD in reserves, which is held by LFG (Luna Foundation Guard). Link to real time view here: datastudio.google.com UST mcap is currently 1.9bn USD : www.coingecko.com LUNA mcap is 400 million initially LUNA was minted 6.5 trillion more to try to peg UST to 1 USD. It failed and minting has been stopped. Here total circulation supply of LUNA, it has remain same since late yesterday: fcd.terra.dev So UST is not getting support from minting more LUNA anymore and even if it would that would not safe UST coz there is 2bn UST and LUNA mcap is only 400 million with current price. So if 59 million USD worth reserves is all there is that is backing the value of UST, shouldn't the next targets for UST be 0.01, 0.001, 0.0001 anc so on? This is just an idea and my reasearch and math may be wrong. So do your own research and let me know in comments what you think of this idea. Its sad but I think UST is really worth max 70 million MCAP which is quite a drastic drop in its price.
UShort
by YMX-Trader
5
Are you going to ignore this beautiful chart of Luna?The Crypto market with no doubt is a wild market. you should NEVER EVER sell your assets. Keep, HOLD for at least 2-3 years. just buy and buy, more and more, accumulate and stack your storage with more coins. Never GIVE UP! just buy and hold. Luna has a system problem and they will fix it. the back of this asset is UST and has got a massive impact. now, this huge project is getting back on track. we all bought it yesterday.
Long
by taktip
14
LUNA/BUSD Daily TA Cautiously BearishLUNA/BUSD Daily cautiously bearish. *Do Kwon published Recovery Plan Part 2 today and if the proposal is passed on 05/18, a hard fork will commence on 05/27 and Luna as we know it will be forked into Luna Classic and Luna (similar to what happened in 2016 with the Ethereum DAO hack that led to the Ethereum Classic and Ethereum fork)*. Recommended ratio: 6% LUNA, 94% cash . Price is currently still experiencing extreme volatility at fractions of a cent and will likely continue to do so even with the news of the updated proposal because it is a highly divisive proposal in its current state which creates a lot of uncertainty still on whether or not the proposal will pass on 05/18. Volume continues to be very high and is on track to favor sellers for the second consecutive session if it closes today in the red (there was even a slight uptick of selling after the updated proposal was released). Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $30.38 minor resistance, this margin is bullish. RSI continues to trend sideways in a flatline at the ATL of 14.25 for what is now a six session streak. Stochastic is also on a six session streak of trending sideways in a flatline at max bottom. MACD remains bearish and continues to be forming a trough, it has maintained yesterday's new ATL at -24.65 and would need to reach -18.21 for a bullish crossover; this is bullish. ADX continues to trend up slightly at 45 as Price continues to trend close to 0; if it forms a Peak it would be mildly bullish and if it were to continue up it would remain bearish. Considering there is very little Price history as these levels, if Price is able to get above $0.01, the next likely target is a test of $0.027 resistance. The other scenario is that it remains bearish and trending close to 0 until an agreeable recovery plan is decided. Mental Stop Loss: (one close above) $0.01. **The proposed hard fork is creating a lot of division within the community regarding the priority of who should be compensated for their losses in addition to whether or not a fork should happen at all... due to this, a lot of volatility is to be expected in the coming days as the picture becomes clearer as to the future of the Terra ecosystem**
L
by dailytaguy
5
Could TerraLuna restore TerraUSD PEG with $Hi folks, The #Terra protocol is doing well and needs no further bailouts 1-2-3 or whatever planned by Do Kwon. Now we have to let the market regulate itself naturally. Indeed, the spectacular crash of the past week was painful for everyone. Nevertheless, I think it is part of algorithmic phases of the Terra protocol itself. The protocol grows by successive phases of expansion and contraction. We have simply witnessed a phase of brutal contraction. This phase could have been amplified by an hypothetical attack but no one knows right now. Now, we have to wait for the market to do its job of natural regulator. Namely, slowly raise the #TerraLuna $LUNA to the price of $0.0017 per unit. At that time, the #TerraUSD $UST will naturally PEG with the US dollar. It’s only a matter of weeks. In fact, the regulator is already playing its role. Once the market has played its role of natural regulator and therefore the TerraUSD UST will again be worth 1 US dollar thanks to its symmetry with the LUNA supply, we can begin the expansion phase of the Terra protocol. During this expansion phase, we will see the TerraUSD UST supply increase and the #LUNA supply decrease. Once the PEG is reached, the decrease/increase of LUNA/UST will begin at approximately 612 LUNA for 1 UST until reaching in a more or less distant future the value of 1:1 or even more depending on the pace of adoption. So, let the market regulate itself and digest this contraction naturally instead of trying to manipulate it with more or less hazy hypothetical rescue plans. This is the price to pay for a decentralized currency. Moreover, we are not safe in a distant future from a new contraction of the protocol which will resorb itself to leave after a few days or weeks a new phase of expansion. Therefore, this contraction could be beneficial for all #cryptocurrency markets since it will bring a significant amount of fresh UST to the market when people will redeem their LUNA for UST once the PEG restore. And we know that cryptocurrency markets are in desperate need of fresh liquidities. So, yes, I'm long. And the impressive volume of Terra Luna exchanged speaks by itself. Have a nice day
LLong
by HenriqueV
8
📊BTC: which cycle does Bitcoin copy? 2018vs2020💹Should we wait for a quick recovery and a Bullrun or will accumulation starts again? Bitcoin is already down by 60% from its ATH. But it is important to understand what scenario Bitcoin will follow. I decided to take two examples from history of how the major crypto-boss was recovering. 🚩Bottom of 2020. Conditions for recovery: 1. Black Swan - Covid-19 pandemic. 2. Fed printed a lot of dollars to fight the crisis. As a consequence, inflation began to rise and the dollar began to depreciate. $4,000 a year ago=$4,200 today for the same Bitcoin. 3. After getting unemployment benefits, a lot of retail investors started investing in crypto. ✅Now we can repeat the V-Shaped Recovery as in 2020. That means by late summer/early fall Bitcoin will be near the upper boundary of the channel, around $70K. 🚩Bottom of 2018. After a year of consolidation and falling by 80% from the ATH, Bitcoin began to consolidate again. Conditions for recovery: 1. The biggest economic growth cycle of 2009-2021 was at its peak. Bitcoin was able to return to $14,000 in a few months - up 400% from the lows. 2. Capitulation of retail traders and investors. After such a long and debilitating decline, all retailers were desperate and sold their crypto to the big players. 3. Interest in crypto only grew among institutional investors and experienced traders even in spite of the fall. Everyone put their money into crypto because they saw its obvious advantage over fiat currencies. 4. The main part of cryptocurrency exchanges, such as Binance, began to launch and investing or trading became more accessible to anyone with any deposit. ✅If the Accumulation scenario repeats, we will see Bitcoin at $100,000 close to New Year, not only paired with UST, but also with USDT or USDC. 📊What is now in 2022: 1. Economic and market sentiment indicators are showing traders and investors panic. 2. All global financial markets are under the pressure because of FED raising rate. 3. Global political disasters. 4. Crypto continue to grow it`s popularity. Investment funds increase their investments in cryptocurrency projects and fintech startups every quarter. 5.The topic of crypto is on the rise, even though Luna has fallen by 99%. 💻What scenario are you looking at? Share your idea or a picture of the chart in comments! Let's discuss them with the whole crypto community! Friends, press the "like"👍 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU. P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy. Always do your analysis before making a trade.
by Yuriy_Bishko
19
Anatomy of LUNA's technical breakdown - a painful meta-analysisLUNA (and UST) rocked the (crypto) markets last week, and hogged the headlines. There were many who got wiped out, and the prospect of recovery appears very remote, if at all. Here I would like to share why I chose LUNA to be a major part of my portfolio, entered and managed the trade (I would not term this as an investment, really). I hope that this sharing can be a good starting learning point of some fundamental factors that we all need in risk management. Luck comes along with hard work and preparation, so just keep at the good stuff, always. For the early part of 2022, a triangle pattern was forming with LUNA, following LUNA's surge in late 2021. Had missed the breakout in late February and had to wait for some pullback, which was shallow. Entry was taken as there was about 50% more of the projected target (see green arrows). MACD and RPM was favourable at that time too. A surge pushed LUNA closer to target and about 60% was taken off, since entry was significantly large of my portfolio, and this was redistributed elsewhere. A retracement took place and almost closed the trade, but one day more made a difference with yet another surge. This time, it got closer to the projected target but retraced just before. Had decided to project the next target level, and kept trade open for the time. LUNA was performing well about this time too, so that was a consolation. In early April, again, it failed to reach projected target and I had decided to allow this to bake longer as the remainder of LUNA that I had, I was willing to hold longer. Then the technical breakdowns started... It returned to the near the entry price, and if it went below further for a day more, I would take it off. Yet again, a surge off that (critical) support level happened. It was very clear that this is now my OSL... LUNA spiked to break above the 55EMA, and reach a resistance in three days, and then consolidated, as bullish technicals faded away slowly. Yet another retracement was effected, after a lower high, no less, and tested the critical support OSL again. A short bounce ensued, and this time, as it failed the resistance, and perhaps more importantly, the 55EMA. Furthermore, the RPM was turning bear, adn MACD was weak. So, I decided that it was enough. Closed out the last 40%, meant for longer term hold, and walked away happy. Started to take notice that LUNA was getting into the news, initially saw UST, and then LUNA got mentioned more. Barely two days after closed trade, LUNA depreciated so much that it was clear something was not right. Technically, the bears were moving and fundamentally, some serious shit was happening. Then it broke the critical support, aka OSL. And that was it... free fall. Then we started reading about many who lost fortunes from this breakdown. Few personal takeaways I have to share, in good faith: 1. It is a trade, not an investment, so keep an eye on crypto positions always. Volatility is part of crypto and it must be accepted, monitored and managed; 2. Read more about what you buy, and keep abreast of its developments. Apparently, a lot about the UST peg was criticized, and admittedly, I read none of those prior; 3. Have good technical analyses and keep a simple set of rules for engagement; 4. If always make sure your tokens are nimble, even if you are staking. A quick retrieval to sell off if and when required is needed. The amount of time you need must be overestimated, and so you know that you need to act eariler, rather than later; and 5. Always have that sacred OSL , and respect that if it is ever broken, you also need to break off the trade. The last point is by far the MOST IMPORTANT takeaway. I kept to mine, and it saved me, unwittingly. Many others, even in the equities market, have asked of late, what to do... Thing here is, we need the solution before the market tanks; we know the solution(s) too. So, need to form the habit of letting go when it is time, so that we are free to move along and recover. As we go through the next weeks recovering our wounds, I hope that you find it in your spirit to understand what happened, both external and internal. And we can only control the control-ables (internal), namely, our actions. So develop a set of steady rules, keep to it, and always have that OSL. It is a live saver. I shared the above, in good faith, as I think it need to put out my learning points of the weekend. I do beg your pardon if it rubbed on sore points, and if it did, it means it needs tending. Read, analyze, and discuss... I believe that there is enough of a community there to help each of us get better. 2022 is a more volatile year, good for those who know how to manage. God bless and take care.
L
by Auguraltrader
2
Luna triggers h&s pattern after ust depegs from the dollar. We can see it overshot its breakdown target due to the immense fear, uncertainty, and doubt created after UST de pegged from the dollar twice over the weekend. Now that it has reached its breakdown target its uncertain of whether or not it wills top dumping but we can see in the process it has created a lower low which is not a good thing for maintaining its overall uptrend. However Bitcoin has yet to form a lower low until it dips below 28650 or so. If bitcoin ultimately forms a higher low before it’s next uptrend there is a chance it can pull luna up with it. For now Luna looks very ugly, so I can’t in good conscious even entertain buying the dip at the moment.
by DrDovetail
LUNA Target 0,22 - The RE-TURN - Luna had this before also Luna is into a hard time, and most have seen what happened the last few days. There is no guarantee in markets, but out of this all there is a good chance that Luna will get some price action. Those who did buy at higher, know already that it's not a good idea to sell when there is a 99.9% loss - but it will stay a personal choice. The things could change Luna to better price action. 1. Binance - could fund Luna, as binance doing this with more projects by CZ. 2. investment from other partners 3. Good news from the team about a good solution And more. In 2020 Luna had around the same situation, and get solved. At this moment the team wants solve it, and try their best to get Luna on the level. Targets: if we look at the targets, it's possible that Luna can hit the 0,22+ as the first target- this could happen when there is good news. And best one if there is a high FOMO effect of 0,41
Long
by Goldenbreakout
2
New moon for nowHello! After the storm, Luna appears to have forming another structure. This can trigger a FOMO in many players and can lead to a increase in price, many will hope that it will hit $1. And its possible but have a very small probability. In the next days Terra members will be working on a plan to refund those that have been lost in this crash, and will also reconstruct the network twitter.com . As they can do anything, they can do a rollback in the block production to moment prior the crash and refund the money people had lost before and after this moment. So the real value of the luna coins now is very uncertain. I do fell sorry for the people that lost in this unconventional event. But think you can recovery all of it, we always do. As a trade plan, I will buy a small amount that I can afford to lose and distribute sell orders at every fib level. To recuperate the invested and reserve some LUNA in the case it really strikes at 1 and more. The size of the orders depends on your perspective. Thank you for reading!
LLong
by lcharles1001
9