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Ustenyear

Employment Data Hammers BondsBonds crept up but are facing resistance. After ZN tested highs at 121'28, and retraced, it started to establish value between 119'23 and 121'00. The latter has provided prohibitive resistance, as we have discussed this week, and we have seen a rejection, continuing the sideways correction. We saw a wick down to 119'23, where we found support, at first, but we subsequently broke through to the vacuum zone below. This follows Non Farm Payrolls coming in at a surprise beat, with unemployment at 3.5%. Expect support at 119'01.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
Bond Yields Soar as APAC Prices in CPI and Fed's ReactionBonds have gotten slammed as yields have soared, smashing through several levels below when we've reported last, as the APAC session prices in CPI data from Friday. We smashed expectations for inflation and investors are rushing to price in the Fed's reaction. Barclays thinks that they will raise rates by 75 bps in order to counter these soaring numbers. We sliced through the 117's with ease and are finally finding support at the base of the 116 handle. We have projected another level of support at 115'29 using inverse Fibonacci extension levels since we've simply run out of support levels for the US ten year. The Kovach OBV is abysmally bearish, however we do appear to be finally leveling off a bit, so perhaps this level will hold. If not, expect resistance from 116'20.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
Bonds Test Higher LevelsBonds have edged up higher, with ZN hitting our target of 121'00. This is a strong psychological and technical level. We are seeing a bit of a divergence between the price action and the Kovach OBV so unless more momentum comes thorugh, anticipate a dip or some ranging between 120'14 and 121'00. If we dip further, 119'23 should provide support. If we are able to break out further, then we have a fairly wide vacuum zone to the next level and target at 121'28.
CBOT:ZN1!Long
by quantguy