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Watch TLT Support at Multi-Decade LowsPrimary Chart : Monthly Chart of TLT Showing Multi-Decade Support Levels. A fair amount of charts have been published lately on the importance of interest rates, and conversely, long-term bonds, government or high-yield bonds. One well-known TradingView publisher @scheplick went so far as to describe the chart of the US 10-year yield as the most important chart for understanding financial markets in this season. His post was entitled, " The Most Important Chart in the World : TLT is an iShares ETF that tracks the performance, generally speaking of long-term US Treasury bonds. Specifically, iShares describes TLT as an ETF that "seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of U.S. Treasury bonds with remaining maturities greater than twenty years." TLT has been in a severe downtrend since March 2020. Bonds yields move inversely to price, and TLT represents, in a rough sense, the price of an index or basket of long-term US government bonds with maturities greater than 20 years. So if long-term bonds remain in a downtrend, then this corresponds to the uptrend in long-term yields that has continued to break higher than anyone expects. The Primary Chart shows TLT having reached long-term, major support at 2009-2010 lows. But a careful examination of TLT's recent lows reveals that it broke slightly below those lows, which isn't a good look for bond bulls in the long term. Supplementary Chart A shows 2009-2010 lows on a monthly chart (similar to the Primary Chart above). Supplementary Chart A However, TLT's reaching such a major support level, with a lower wick forming (at least initially), could imply a move higher in bonds and a concomitant move lower in yields in the near term. But remember that fighting a predominant trend (mean reversion) when it becomes extended can be one of the trades having the lowest success rate. But it can also have a higher reward rate if risk is managed well. SquishTrade does not recommend being long bonds here but rather commenting on how traders may react to major support levels in TLT's downtrend. They may be right or wrong—recall that no one likely expected long bonds to fall as far as they have, and many have been positioned long bonds since TLT was in the upper $90s! The next few supplementary charts emphasize the nature and severity of the downtrend in long-term bonds, as represented here by TLT. The first shows TLT's 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Price is about –12.11% below the 200-day SMA as of mid-session on Friday, September 29/ Supplementary Chart B Next, the VWAP anchored to TLT's long-term cycle high is shown in black. This confirms a long-term, and extreme downtrend in long duration US Treasury bonds. Long-term VWAPs do not always have such a noticeable downward slope. Even a bounce to $125 could present just a mean reversion (retracement) within this downtrend despite creating an uptrend on the daily or even weekly chart, which would be necessary to reach that distant level. Supplementary Chart C A Fibonacci channel below has been applied to a weekly TLT chart. Notice how the channel shows support right where the weekly lower wick formed—the 1.618 level of the channel. To be sure, this does not necessitate a long-term trend reversal (though anything is possible, and this could be the spot). But it does suggest the potential for a near term bounce in the shorter cycles. Supplementary Chart D Anyone wondering whether a long-term uptrend is still in place from the start of TLT's price history should consider the following chart. This shows decisive breaks of several long-term (and progressively accelerating) uptrends. Supplementary Chart E Year-end flows can be supportive of equities, though not always—note the late 2019 exception for CBOE:SPX and $NASDAQ:NDX. If some relief materializes in long-term to intermediate-term bonds, then this could coincide with some support in broader equity markets into year end, though this is by no means guaranteed. Consider the following posts and charts on yield curve inversions posted by @SPY_Master and this author on TradingView: These charts of yield-curve inversions should give one serious concerns about the near-term (3 months to 2 years) health of the stock market. This post is in no way advocating any particular investing or trading strategy. Short-term trading and long-term investing can both be either devastating or profitable (or somewhere in between those extremes) to the person engaging in it. And thanks for reading this and for your encouragement and support. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
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NASDAQ:TLT
by SquishTrade
46
🤖 #BTCLIVE - 09.08 - #IDEA 🤖🤖 #BTCLIVE - 09.08 - #IDEA 🤖 60:40 Mid-Term Bullish:Bearish Technical Analysis: Current Status: Big rejection hit as outlined in yesterdays BTCLIVE with TD9's, Exhaustion candle and bearish divergence into resistance - multiplied by the Tornado Cash blacklisting. We have taken out the high support of $23.8k and looking to test the more critical support of $23.2k. There is a large amount of support in this area: - 50EMA - 20 EMA - Weekly Pivot - CME Gap - Trendline - Potential Bullish Divergence That should hopefully, the key analysis is the bullish divergence that is not confirmed yet but could help support a retest and bounce here. A long with a pretty tight stop-loss here could be an option, although keep the stop-loss tight - very high risk. The only issue is that there is a considerably amount of unpredictable new circulating atm, especially the Tornado Cash blacklisting as this could be a floodgate to other services and the depth may be quite damaging as it is unlikely this will be isolated to just Tornado Cash. The rest of the news is not particularly impactful so just keep an eye on how this unfolds - it will be interesting to see what the US does when on line. On the whole I am still more bullish than bearish Bullish Scenario Bounce here at $23.2k and track up to longterm range target of $25k - $26k. A lot of TA suggesting a possible bounce along with a lot of volume if the US market doesnt drop the price below $23k the it would all be relatively bullish. Bearish Scenario If the Tornado Cash impact unfolds to affect more services then unloading of BTC reserves could start occurring - I believe this was the cause of the recent dump - a daily close below $23.2k would likely lead to further downward pressure with a realistic target of $22k. Key News: + Iran completes its first foreign trade worth $10 million using #cryptocurrency. - @circlepay 's USDC has officially blacklisted every Ethereum address sanctioned by the US Treasury + $100K #Bitcoin could be a matter of time, says Bloomberg Intelligence + UAE-based retail store Day To Day will accept #Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as payment methods. - #Binance will disable off-chain transfers to WazirX on August 11th. - U.S Treasury has blacklisted 'crypto mixer' Tornado Cash. home.treasury.gov - Singapore-Based Hodlnaut Halts Withdrawals Citing ‘Market Conditions’ beincrypto.com Metrics: Exchange + Exchange Reserve - As the exchange reserve continues to fall, it indicates lower selling pressure. - Exchange Netflow Total - Net deposits on exchanges are high compared to the 7-day average. Higher deposits can be interpreted as higher selling pressure. Miners / Miners' Position Index ( MPI ) - Miners' are selling holdings in a moderate range compared to its one-year average. / Puell Multiple -Miner's revenue is in a moderate range, compared to its one-year average. On-Chain - aSOPR - More investors are selling at a profit. In the middle of a bull market, it can indicate a market top. + Binary CDD - Long term holders' movement in the last 7days were lower than the average. They have a motive to hold their coins + Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) -Investors are in a Fear phase where they are currently with unrealized profits that are slightly more than losses. + Transfer Volume - The total number of coins transferred has increased by 30.00% compared to yesterday. - Active Addresses - The number of active wallets used to send and receive coins has decreased by -4.00% compared to yesterday. + Transactions - The total number of transactions has increased by 2.00% compared to yesterday. Sentiment + Coinbase Premium - US investors' buying pressure is relatively strong in Coinbase. - Korea Premium -Korean retail investors' buying pressure is relatively strong. - Fund Premium - Investors in funds and trusts including Grayscale have relatively weak buying sentiment. Derivatives + Funding Rate - Long position traders are dominant and are willing to pay to short traders. - Taker Buy Sell Ratio - Selling sentiment is dominant in the derivatives market. More sell orders are filled by takers. / Open Interest - As OI increases, it indicates more liquidity, volatility , and attention are coming into the derivative market. The increasing trend in OI could support the current ongoing price trend. - Liquidation - 22775722.97 of long positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours.
by Kryptochristian
DXY Forecast (Pivotal info please read I apologize for volume)Here is my fundamental, technical, and news analysis of DXY . There are so many question remarks regarding the future of the US dollar forecasting a holding downtrend. I believe we will see the dollar drop to the September 1st low of 91.750. News Analysis Reports of the likely hood of the stimulus passing before the elections are slim. As a result volatility will increase with low sentiment pertaining to future strength. Reports of the US treasury report release announced further delay of the release. Delays have occurred due to COVID-19 and the elections. This is the likely cover for the under lying issue of the US heavy watch list of suspected countries engaging in currency manipulation. (Un-contracting trading of bilateral goods, unauthorized foreign aid, and unmatched account balance). US treasury report is set to release further information on investigation findings which if negative would effect the economy and sentiment immensely. Among these countries include Switzerland ( put back on the list) so that should be an interesting pair to watch. USD Index reported dropping .22% and expected to maintain that low the upcoming week. Stocks will be avoided adding more volatility to the dollar. Fundamental Reporters state “Banks imply bullish calendar week ahead” to avoid the first double dip recession in 40 years .Experienced traders know banks often play trickery. Banks focus on one thing and one thing only. Make more money. Unfortunately banks need to be funded as the main priority. We all know what happens when banks fall. This “implication” is simply to psychologically reassure traders to keep trading, falling into the fakeouts skewed by the money holders. Of course banks are going to reassure the general population a double dip won’t reoccur. Thus I will disregard this information until I see it play out. The Chinese Yuan has been dominating the Dollar for quite a while. As long as the Yuan heavily ways down on the Dollar, the Dollar will be negatively effected. Given China’s continued economic growth following hits from the pandemic, and the Dollars uncertainty we will continue to see the Yan dominate the Dollar. This in turn yields low sentiment. And of course the hot topic of the upcoming week for the US are the elections. If Biden’s chances grow stronger towards the end of the week we may see some positive growth as the Democrats will essentially demand a stimulus agreement. Who really knows where the US stands financially apart from the front office. One can only make speculations on the opposition. If the week begins and ends with candidate uncertainty we may see added volatility . Technical My 1hr technical chart view indicates the the dollar will drop to 91.750. We are currently seeing a push to form the lower low which will give me added confirmation of a true downtrend. The price must close below the horizontal trend I presented to fit my forecast criteria. I believe the the trend will move in a downward holding (short volatile candles) I hope everyone took the time to read this over! Below are my sources. Sources Reuters Investing.com Daily FX Netdania
TVC:DXY
by Pika7993
4
FREDDIE MAC FMCCP GSE InvestorsSteven Mnuchin the Treasury Secretary. His background and role to the 2008 crisis and of course deep connections with his boss, President Trump. mobile.nytimes.com Insight of a high probability return of investment on Fannie and Freddie preferred shares issued by Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and etc. Right now 100 of billions of their profit (100 %) goes to the treasury department because the US government save their ass during the 08 crisis. The US government was sued because of the constitution's 5th amendment. With Steve on board he is likely to accelerate the process that have already began. online.wsj.com The entire process is gaining traction. The worst case scenario is the department of justice says "you cannot sue the government, they can pretty do whatever they want and write/rewrite the rules along the way."
OTC:FMCCPLong
by WolfeDayRocker