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USDJPY Analysis: Potential Bearish Bias Amid Key Fundamental !Introduction On 21st October 2024, the USDJPY currency pair is showing signs of a slightly bearish bias due to evolving market conditions and fundamental factors. In this article, we break down the key drivers influencing the USDJPY forecast today and provide an analysis to help traders understand the potential for downside pressure on the pair. --- Key Drivers Influencing USDJPY Today 1. Dovish Federal Reserve Outlook The US Federal Reserve's recent statements have signaled a more dovish stance, suggesting a potential slowdown or even a pause in its tightening cycle. Despite lingering inflationary concerns, recent US economic data has shown signs of weakening in critical sectors such as manufacturing and services. This has dampened expectations for further aggressive rate hikes, causing the US Dollar to lose momentum against the Japanese Yen. As traders reassess the likelihood of future rate hikes, the USD's appeal has diminished, supporting a bearish outlook for USDJPY. 2. Bank of Japan’s Yield Control Strategy The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy for an extended period, but recent speculation suggests the central bank could adjust its yield curve control (YCC) policy. There are increasing expectations that the BoJ may begin allowing longer-term bond yields to rise, which could indirectly strengthen the Japanese Yen (JPY). If the BoJ hints at policy adjustments in its upcoming meetings, this could fuel JPY bullishness, further pressuring USDJPY downward. 3. Weakening US Treasury Yields US Treasury yields have started to decline after reaching multi-year highs, reflecting market concerns about future US economic growth and the Fed’s dovish pivot. Lower yields reduce the attractiveness of US bonds for global investors, leading to a weaker USD. Since USDJPY often tracks the performance of US Treasury yields, this decline is a significant factor contributing to the pair’s bearish bias today. 4. Rising Geopolitical Risks Rising geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East and concerns over global energy markets, have increased the demand for safe-haven assets like the Japanese Yen. The JPY often benefits from such risk-off environments, as investors seek safety amidst heightened global uncertainty. As geopolitical tensions escalate, traders may increase their holdings in JPY, adding downward pressure on USDJPY. 5. US Economic Slowdown Recent US economic data has been mixed, with signs of slowing growth in areas such as retail sales, industrial production, and labor market indicators. A slowing US economy is weighing on the USD as investors become more cautious about the greenback’s prospects. The potential for reduced consumer spending and business investment dampens the outlook for the USDJPY pair, suggesting further downside risks. --- Technical Outlook From a technical perspective, USDJPY has been testing key resistance levels around 150.00, which has proven difficult to break decisively. If the pair fails to breach this psychological barrier, it may trigger further selling pressure. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching overbought territory, signaling the potential for a reversal or correction in the coming sessions. --- Conclusion On 21st October 2024, the USDJPY pair appears to be leaning towards a slightly bearish bias, driven by a combination of a dovish Federal Reserve outlook, speculation of BoJ policy adjustments, weakening US Treasury yields, and rising geopolitical risks. As the market digests these factors, traders should remain cautious and consider downside opportunities in USDJPY, particularly if upcoming US economic data confirms a slowdown in growth. --- Keywords for SEO: USDJPY analysis, USDJPY forecast, USDJPY today, bearish bias USDJPY, Federal Reserve dovish, Bank of Japan policy, US Treasury yields, Japanese Yen strength, USDJPY key drivers, US economic slowdown, safe-haven assets, geopolitical risks, USDJPY technical analysis, USDJPY 21 October 2024.
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
US10Y: Channel Up intact but first time on a Bearish Divergence.US10Y continues to rise inside a long term Channel Up, with its 1D technical outlook bullish (RSI = 57.618, MACD = 29.942, MACD = 0.116). The 1D RSI though is for the first time in the recent months under a LH bearish divergence so for the first time the probabilities for a bearish reversal get stronger. Consequently, if the price crosses under the Channel's bottom, we will see and target the 1D MA50 (TP = 4.600). Until then, we will but on the first 1D candle that closes under the S1 level, aiming at a +10.70% rise (TP = 5.185). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10Y
by InvestingScope
BTC Vs US02US30 SPREAD - Interesting • 2s30s spread : The US2US30 spread refers to the yield spread between the 2-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds. The chart visualizes the difference, or spread, in yield for these two bonds over time. The 2-year bond represents more of the short-term outlook, whereas the 30-year bond is more indicative of long-term expectations. So, when people refer to the US2US30 yield spread, they're essentially talking about the difference between short-term and long-term interest rates. During typical economic conditions, investors demand higher interest for lending money over a longer period, thus the yield of 30-year bond is higher than the 2-year. However, during economic uncertainty, the spread can narrow or even become negative (also known as a yield curve inversion), which can be viewed as a potential indicator of a forthcoming economic recession. Yield Curve: 1. A yield curve is a graphical representation of the yields available for bonds of equal credit quality and different maturity dates. It is used to measure bond investors' feelings about risk and can significantly impact investment returns. 2. Different types of yield curves can exist reflecting the short, intermediate, and long-term rates of various bond types, such as Treasury bonds, Municipal bonds, or corporate bonds of specific issuers. 3. The shape of the yield curve varies: a normal yield curve slopes upward indicating higher yields for long-term investments; a steep curve usually signals the beginning of economic expansion; an inverted curve suggests potential economic slowdown as long-term investors settle for lower yields; and a flat or humped curve indicates little difference in short and long-term yields. 4. The yield curve can help gauge the direction of the economy, serving as a predictor for potential turning points in the economy. 5. Yield curves allow bond investors to compare Treasury yields with riskier assets such as Agency bonds or corporate bonds. The yield difference between these is referred to as the "spread", which widens during recessions and contracts during recoveries.
TVC:US30YLong
by TraderE9
Weekly U.S. Treasuries Analysis (Week 07/2023)First Thing First: This analysis is for “general overview only” as it is solely based on price action. That’s why it is called momentum analysis in the first place. Support/Resistant, Volume Macro view nor any other factors are not used during write up. Refer to the individual pair analysis for a more comprehensive write up. US1Y: Bullish US2Y: Bullish US5Y: Bullish US10Y: Bullish US30Y: Bullish S&P Index: Bearish WK 07 (11 Feb 2023)
TVC:US01YLong
by SonicDeejay
FED Fund Rate, US Bonds and Inflation PredictionThe blue line area shows the historic and current FED's Fund Rate. Looking back in the past it appears the US10Y (yellow line) is predictive of FED's fund rate upper target (orange arrows). The US3M (turquoise line) seems to be a good indicator to get a feeling for the FED's fund rate short-term up or downward trend. In the FOMC Summary of Economic Projections Jun 15 '2022 the FOMC had the midpoint of target range or target level for the federal funds rate at around below 4% 2022: 3,39% midpoint, 2023: 3.78%, 2024: 3.01% and >2024: 2,24% (ghost feed in the red box on the right). So all that noted it would appear the FED Funds rate is to be expected at just below 4% at around 3.8%. The next FOMC meeting will give as an update on that from the perspective of the FED. And as a general indicator you need to know the FED uses the 10 Year- 3 Month Treasury Yield Spread (white line) as follows: The 10 Year- 3 Month Treasury Yield Spread is the difference between the 10 year treasury rate and the 3 month treasury rate. This spread is widely used as a gauge to study the yield curve. A 10 year-3 month treasury spread that approaches 0 signifies a "flattening" yield curve. Furthermore, a negative 10 year-3 month spread has historically been viewed as a precursor or predictor of a recessionary period. The New York Fed uses the rate in a model to predict recessions 2 to 6 quarters ahead (white arrows). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FRED:FEDFUNDSLong
by CarpeMomentum
Opportunity to buy US Treasuries and a failing fiat system?The 2/10 treasury yield spread is approaching an inversion. All of the previous yield curve inversions were associated with catastrophic event many of which stemming out of a fiat monetary system that seems very obviously to be failing. We are seeing the failing fiat monetary system if we look at the amount of money being created out of thin air by the FED (and ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Japan). The FED is expected to raise interest rates at its May 3-4, 2022 meeting. More rate hikes are expected to follow, with the goal of reducing inflation. The markets anticipate that the federal funds rate will exceed 3% by early 2023. The dollar is showing great strength across other leading currencies. If you invest in treasury you can get a fair interest rate of 3% (and assuming with more rate hikes even more), as US treasuries bond are available at a great rebate. Do consider the currency devaluation possible if your base living currency is not the USD.
TVC:US10Y
by CarpeMomentum
Bond yields in the era of high inflationAs you can see on the main chart, 10y bond yields have broken above their downwards channel and are now back at their 2013-2018 highs. Based on technical analysis we don't have a confirmation that the trend has fully reversed until we get a close above 3.2%, but we are pretty close to breaking above that level too. Now we aren't only seeing the 10y yields rise, as all kinds of maturities are rising at the same time and are rising pretty fast. The trend is showing no signs of exhaustion and this could get pretty ugly for the world economy, as the Fed has barely raised rates so far and they are threatening to raise rates by 0.5% at every meeting in 2022. Many analysts claim that the bond market is broken and that yields will rise even further, but are they correct? Well the truth is that the way bond market topped (yields bottomed) in March 2020 is definitely an indication that a bull market is over. Currently the market has broken below most major support lines and seems to be accelerating rather than decelerating, while the correction from the peak is indicating that the bull market is over, as during bull markets corrections tend to stay within a certain range, and this correction is way larger than any previous corrections. At the same time the 2y year yields are above 2.5%, a level that they 'shouldn't' have broken if the bond bull was intact. The reason behind this is that usually 2y bond yields would never go above the peak of the Fed Funds Rate and during the last hiking cycle the FFR had peak at 2.5%. Currently the 2y yields look like the formed the perfect round bottom (bullish technical pattern) and have broken above their downwards channel and could also be headed higher in the medium to long term (an indication that the bond bull could be over). However not everything is really bearish for bonds at the moment and there is some hope for the bull market, even if that means we only get a strong bounce before going lower. As the 10y and 30y yields haven't broken above their resistance levels yet, it might be a good time to start buying bonds. Why? Well as yields are at resistance, bonds are close to support. The actual bonds are so oversold, that the current move might be getting totally irrational. Yes inflation is going up, yes inflation could go higher and inflation expectations keep rising, but the rate of inflation could come down. Not only that, but the Fed is so trapped that everyone knows they can't really raise rates much more or sell bonds without breaking the market. Financial conditions have already tightened so much, that investors will eventually run to the safety of bonds which finally have a pretty attractive yield. Of course my reasoning doesn't just rely on some random fundamental analysis, but also some technical factors. The first one has to do with how this break of the trendline could be a trap and this move is headed straight into a very important area in which there is strong support. On TLT there is a major gap at an area that was support, it was broken and then the market quickly closed back above it. That's the perfect place to go long. The second one has to do with the fact that the yield curve had inverted and has now un-inverted itself. Usually inversions happen close to the bottom of the bond market (peak in yields) and therefore this could be another useful signal that a bottom isn't far away. Again this doesn't mean that someone has to go long right now or go long big, just that maybe its time to cut down shorts and put on some small longs. Personally I like to move between being a bond bull or bear based on the data and not have dogmatic views about what will happen in the future. Finally I'd like to talk a bit about junk bonds, which are at the same level they were when the Fed had raised rates at 2.5% and kept saying that they would keep hiking. With so much debt in the world, the Fed threatening to keep hiking rates and the global economy being in shambles due to Covid-19, aging demographics, supply chain issues, lockdowns in China, the Russia-Ukraine war and commodity shortages, it is hard for someone to really see how owning junk bonds is a good long term bet here. Shorting junk bonds is probably the best bet someone could take at this stage, if he/she believes that there is going to be a major collapse either in the stock market or the bond market. What I find very interesting is how resilient American companies have proven to be, and how after so many major crashes since 2008, now junk bonds are rallying against treasuries. By looking at the HYG/TLT ratio, we can see how they have outperformed since the March 2020 crash, potentially due to how much the US government has support those companies and how much more the private sector has benefited from low rates and money printing compared to the public sector. By adding to the mix how strong stocks have been over the last 2 years despite all the negative events, we can make sense of why junk bonds are outperforming us treasuries. Maybe this is also a major sign that buying stocks is a much better idea in the long term than buying bonds, and that the stock bull market is still intact, but that's a topic which I will discuss in another idea. In conclusion, the bond bull could be over. There are several signs indicating extreme weakness in bonds as inflation expectations keep rising and the Fed is unwilling to support the bond market. Yet we are at levels that not buying bonds seems like the wrong decision, even if buying them would only for a short time period only.
TVC:US10Y
by BitcoinMacro
US 30 YEARS-WEEKLY-UPSIDE BREAKOUT ! WEEKLY (W1) Last week price action triggered a LONG WHITE BULLISH CANDLE which broke up and close @ 2.5890 on a weekly basis above the former high @ 2.5160 reached a year ago in March 2021. RSI @ 70.85 is not converging therefore there is a potential BEARISH DIVERGENCE IN PROGRESS ! On the other hand, the LAGGING LINE is far away above the TS, KS and the weekly clouds too which is supportive for further development. Currently above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement @ 2.4130 % of the 3.4650 - 0,71 downside move, Next Fibonacci extension (78.6%) is @ 2.8750 % former congestion seen in 2019, 2018, 2018 and earlier. DAILY (D1) Ongoing (yield) uptrend price action still alive with its first significant support level @ 2.50 (cluster of Tenkan-Sen and ongoing support trend line); below there is 2 levels to look at very carefully : S2 : @ 2.3910 (MBB) S3 : @ 2.3570 (KS) A BREAKOUT OF THE LATTER LEVEL WOULD PUT THE FOCUS TO THE DAILY CLOUDS SUPPORT AREA (2.25-2.07) On the upside, there is a potential double & triple top in progress, coupled with a potential RSI bearish divergence too. Therefore, ongoing price action and more important, next daily closing level will may be validate or invalidate the potential reversal previously mentioned. 4 HOURS (H4) DOUBLE & TRIPLE TOP IN PROGRESS !!! Indeed, recent rallies above the 2.64 % level triggered a potential double & triple top which is coupled also with a RSI bearish divergence... The H4 uptrend support line is still alive and in this H4 time frame the TENKAN-SEN @ 2.5720 ahead of the cluster of KIJUN-SEN and MID BOLLINGER BAND @ 2.55 should be seen as the first support area to look at very carefully in this H4 time frame. A failure to hold above 2.55 would put the focus on the H4 clouds support area (2.48-2.41) , 2.4240 being the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the last upside move starting @ 2.0690 towards the high so far @ 2.6440. Below the 50% Fib ret is @ 2.3560 which is also the Kijun-Sen on the 4 hours time frame. 1 HOUR (H1) Wonderful school study case shown on the hourly chart with a DOUBLE TOP in progress (second top higher than the first !) coupled with a RSI BEARISH DIVERGENCE. TRIGGER LEVEL @ 2.5650. - Target if broken 2.48 which corroborate the previous view expressed on H4 Have a nice trading day. IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
TVC:US30Y
by Ironman8848
US 10 YEARS - CONSOLIDATION ?WEEKLY (W1) Looks like a corrective move which should, for the time being, be seen as a consolidation phase or pullback towards the triangle pattern breakout level ! Indeed, looking at the weekly picture, we can identify two important support levels, which are the following : S1 : 1.7960 (Tenkan-Sen) also roughly the 38.2% Fib ret (@ 1.7850 % of the last 1.3360 %-2.0630 % move S2 : 1.6600 (Kijun-Sen and Mid Bollinger Band) and former downtrend line resistance which became the new support Interesting to note that the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is @ 1.6140 % which roughly coincides with the apex of the triangle pattern ! A breakout of 1.66 would put the focus on the weekly clouds support zone & 78.6 % Fib ret extension @ 1.4920 % On the upside, the triangle technical target remains @ 2.33 % and is still alive. RSI above 50, @ 65.33 LAGGING LINE far above the clouds and KS and TS DAILY (D1) Currently still above the daily Kijun-Sen @ 1.8850 Next support on a Daily basis are the following : S1 : 1.7850 % S2 : 1.7000 % s3 : 1.6140 % (bottom of the daily clouds support area) RSI above 50, @ 51.07 LAGGING LINE far above the clouds and also above both TS and KS CONCLUSION : Watch and monitor very carefully price action on shorter intraday time frames (H4, H1 and 15 minutes) to get clues which will help you to validate or invalidate the implications of the scenarios above mentioned for longer (D1 and W1 time frames) Have a nice trading week. All the best and take care IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
TVC:US10Y
by Ironman8848
📚#e⏭️06 : Ultra Bond Futures Are Super Boring🥱💤Don't Click💡💫An Education🎓 Series Continuation Prior Episodes Found In The Content Below ❔ What Are Bonds Bonds Are The Foundation Of A Debt Based Monetary System Bonds Define The Cost Of Money Over Time Put Simply Bonds Are Future Dollars Read That Again🔂 US Treasury Bonds Are Future US Dollars Deliverable At A Specified Time In The Future I.e 30 Years Henceforth By Purchasing A US Treasury Bond You Enter Into A Legal Contract With The Treasury Wherein You Will Receive The Principle Or "Face Value" Of The Bond Plus The Rate Of Interest Specified At The Time Of Purchase ❔ A Traders Role To Make Money I Hear You Say Well Yes Of Course But What Exactly As Bond Traders Are We Getting Paid For ? To Provide A Service Our Collective Actions Expressed Through The Trading Of Bond Instruments Determine The Cost Of Money Yes💡 Regardless Of Your Trading Size We Are All Interacting With The Free Market Our Role : To Correctly Price The Value Of Future Money When We Trade Bonds Profitably We Win The Game We Have Kept The Flame🔥 We Have Served A Most Important Mission We Fulfill A Founders Vision d-MR96nBa nvrBrkagn ❔ Why Else Ultra Bonds Low Operation Costs Regardless Of Trade Size Only Pay Spread Fee As Futures Contracts Zero Overnight Cost To Carry Quarterly Rollover Spread Only Operation Costs Will Kill A Trader In Time On Time Every Time Same As Any Business 📔 Rules Of The Rodeo Trend Is Dearest Life-Long Friend Bond Bull Market 40 Years Strong So We Will Mostly Trade Long Positions Actively Managed Entry Orders Executed At The Market Trading 0.01 Unit At A Time ℹ️ CME Group Official Ultra Bond Trader Site www.cmegroup.com Starblazers 🌠 Dreamscapers 🧙🏼‍♂️ Rebellion 🧗🏻‍♀️ Join Me On A Journey Of Mastery Utilising The Instruments Symbolising Our Servitude Slaves Become Masters Masters Serve Slaves Behold.. The Ultra Bond Future 🗽 US 30 Year Yields📊 CBOT:UB1! TVC:US30Y 📚#e04 : 📚#e03 : 📚#e02 : 📚#e01 :
CBOT:UB1!Education
by d-MR96nBa
33
📚#e04 : A Journey Of Inversion ♋ Bond Masters💰Of Us All ⚖️💫An Education🎓 Series Continuation Prior Episodes Found In The Content Below ❔ What Are Bonds Bonds Are The Foundation Of A Debt Based Monetary System Bonds Define The Cost Of Money Over Time Put Simply Bonds Are Future Dollars Read That Again🔂 US Treasury Bonds Are Future US Dollars Deliverable At A Specified Time In The Future I.e 30 Years Henceforth By Purchasing A US Treasury Bond You Enter Into A Legal Contract With The Treasury Wherein You Will Receive The Principle Or "Face Value" Of The Bond Plus The Rate Of Interest Specified At The Time Of Purchase ❔ A Traders Role To Make Money I Hear You Say Well Yes Of Course But What Exactly As Bond Traders Are We Getting Paid For ? To Provide A Service Our Collective Actions Expressed Through The Trading Of Bond Instruments Determine The Cost Of Money Yes This Is True Bet You Didn't Know That Regardless Of Your Trading Size We Are All Interacting With The Free Market Our Role Is To Correctly Price The Cost Of Money When We Trade Bonds Profitably Our Roles Are Fulfilled ❔ Why Else Ultra Bonds Low Operation Costs Only Pay Spread Fee Regardless Of Trade Size As Futures Contracts Zero Overnight Cost To Carry Operation Costs Will Kill A Trader Over Time Same As Any Business d-MR96nBa nvrBrkagn ℹ️ CME Group Official Ultra Bond Trader Site www.cmegroup.com Starblazers 🌠 Dreamscapers 🧙🏼‍♂️ Rebellion 🧗🏻‍♀️ Join Me On A Journey Of Mastery Utilising The Instruments Symbolising Our Servitude Slaves Will Topple Masters Behold.. The Ultra Bond Future 🗽 US 30 Year Yields📊 📚#e03 : 📚#e02 : 📚#e01 : CBOT:UB1! TVC:US30Y
CBOT:UB1!Education
by d-MR96nBa
42
US10Y-D1/W1- TREND REVERSAL CONFIRMED !TREND REVERSAL CONFIRMED ON THE DAILY CHART !!! Price action, acceleration upside move, seen over the last couple of days confirmed the trend reversal, calling for higher levels.(Pullback failure attempt) Indeed, the former daily downtrend line resistance has been broken and has also been confirmed by the Chico.span price action. RSI above 50 @ 69 Only a clear breakout of the 1,5950 would put in danger the expected bullish (yield) scenario. WEEKLY (W1) The weekly downtrend resistance line in progress to be broken (confirmation would be given on a weekly closing basis tomorrow and also by the closing level of the Chikou-span which is currently in progress to also breakout this downtrend line resistance. Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
TVC:US10YLong
by Ironman8848
US10Y Close to a major bearish move towards July's lowsI haven't updated my 10Y Bond Yield outlook in almost a month, ever since calling the top and the potential of a bearish reversal: The top successfully took place and the rejection gave way to the reversal on which the price has been trading until now. The similarities with the March - May formation remain and have even become stronger. As you see there is a Triangle pattern on both which in June it broke aggressively to the down side turning the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) into its Resistance until late August. Right now the 1D MA50 is supporting. If the price breaks below it and gets rejected there (turning it into a Resistance) on the first test, then I expect the US10Y to targe the 1.125 Support. Until then, we are trading sideways within the Triangle. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
2
US GOV BONDS 10 YR YIELD - THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND...M1 : Ongoing bearish (yield) price action, currently below KS. W1 : Ongoing breakout progress of the MBB important support level (1.5160) D1 : Currently below the clouds and testing the bottom line support of the ongoing downtrend channel H4 : Far below the clouds area and below all indicators, (KS, MBB and TS) H1 : Failure to recover above the clouds (1.5320) triggered a renewal selling pressure As for H4 below the clouds ad below the cluster M30 : Currently trying to recover above both TS and MBB (RSI bullish divergence !) M15 : RSI bullish divergence. Recovery above MBB in progress M5 : Currently attempting to confirm a clouds breakout CONCLUSION : ONGOING BROAD BEAR (Yield) TREND; SHORT TERM TIME FRAMES ARE PROVIDING TACTICAL CORRECTIVE MOVE WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY LIMITED. LOOKING FORWARD AND IN ORDER TO NEUTRALISE THIS ONGOING DOWNSIDE RISK CALLING FOR FURTHER DOWNSIDE TOWARDS, AT LEAST THE 1.30 AREA (1.3280 being the KS and 1.2890 being the 38.2% Fib ret of the 0.5040-1.7740 rally), the 10 Years should first recover above the ongoing downtrend line resistance in place on M1,W1 and D1, which is currently around 1.65/1.70: ONLY A SUSTAINABLE MOVE ABOVE THAT AREA WOULD FORCE TO A VIEW REASSESSMENT OF THE EXPECTED BEARISH (yield) SCENARIO. Next important support level being @ 1.1390 (top of the W1 clouds support area and also the 50 % Fib ret of the rally above mentioned. Have a nice trading day All the best, take care and have fun Ironman8848
TVC:US10YShort
by Ironman8848
US GOV BONDS 10 YR YIELD - MULTI TIME FRAMES M1 : Ongoing bearish (yield) donwtrend in progress ! W1 : Currently below TS and still above MBB. Watch 1.4840 ahead of 1.3240, the latter being the key pivot levels on this time frame. D1 : Roughly in the middle level of an ongoing donwtrend channel, within the clouds Watch carefully at the bottom of the clouds. A daily closing below the clouds (around the 1.5000 area) would be the first warning signal, calling for further downside H4 : Failure to hold above the clouds triggered a sharp downside move which went very quickly below the clouds to a low so far of 1.5520 !!! H1 : Below the clouds, no trend reversal signal yet M30 : Same than H1, trying to upside breakout TS without success for the time being. M15 : MBB working well so far as the first resistance level to break on the upside M5 : Below the clouds CONCLUSION : BROAD PICTURE REMAINS GLOBALLY BEARISH CALLING FOR LOWER LEVELS TOWARDS THE 1.30 AREA ! WARNING , A BREAKOUT CONFIRMATION OF THE 1.3000 AREA WOULD BE SEEN AS NEGATIVE, CALLING FOR FURTHER DOWNSIDE TOWARDS THE 1.15% AREA (50 % FIB RET) AHEAD OF THE 1.00% (61.8 % FIB RET) ONLY A SUSTAINABLE RECOVERY ABOVE THE FORMER HIGH @ 1.7740 WOULD FORCE TO A VIEW REASSESSMENT OF THE BEARISH EXPECTED SCENARIO. Have a nice Sunday, have fun ! Take care All the best. And if you find my analysis valuable for you, pls do not forget to like it and if you do not follow me yet, please add Ironman8848 in your following list Many thanks in advance Regards Ironman8848
TVC:US10YShort
by Ironman8848
Canadian dollar slips to 3-week low, GDP nextThe Canadian dollar has lost ground for a second straight day. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2634, up 0.35% on the day. Earlier in the day, USD/CAD touched a high of 1.2674, its highest level since March 10th. It's been a quiet start to the week for USD/CAD, with no Canadian events. That will change on Wednesday, with the release of Canada's GDP for January. The street consensus stands at 0.5%, which would be a strong rebound from the lethargic 0.1% gain a month earlier. A figure higher than the estimate would be bullish for the Canadian dollar. We'll also get a look at the Raw Materials Price Index, an important inflation gauge. The index is expected to show a strong gain of 5.3% for February, after a reading of 5.7% a month earlier. This reflects pent-up demand due to the Covid- 19 lockdowns in effect.    US yields are on the march, with the 10-year yield rising to 1.77% on Tuesday, its highest level in 14 months. The rise in yields comes a day before President Biden will announce parts of a proposed new infrastructure plan, Build Back Better, a massive spending program which will carry a price tag of between 3-4 trillion dollars. HSBC sent out a note saying that “stimulus and any infrastructure plan are likely to prove to be a sugar rush for the economy”. Given that such a massive recovery program will trigger higher inflation, we could see bond yields continue to rise this week, which would likely prolong the dollar rally. Biden's massive package will undoubtedly include tax hikes, which is likely to garner strong opposition from the Republicans. USD/CAD is putting pressure on resistance at 1.2641, followed by resistance at 1.2713. On the downside, there is support at 1.2486. Below, there is support level is at 1.2403. This is followed by the 52-week low, at 1.2365
by OANDA
Dollar Supported at NecklineThe dollar pulled back from a 3-month high and found support at neckline 91.44 after erasing the week's gain. The dollar was under pressure as the US bond yield rally halted. However, the pullback was shallow and it soon returned to 1.6% and a little breakthrough took place before the market closed. Therefore, the dollar may continue to climb on technical support together with a persistently rising yield. This week, we can continue to buy the dollar around 91.5 demand zone, targeting the supply zone above 93.
TVC:DXYLong
by AlgoVenture