Get started

Utilities

Sector Rotation in Anticipation of Rate CutsMarkets have rebounded sharply after last week's fear-driven decline. Despite this, rate cuts are still anticipated in the upcoming FOMC meetings. Changes in monetary policy often benefit some sectors over others, providing investors a chance to adjust their portfolio allocations accordingly. This paper delves into a comparative analysis of sectors around monetary policy pivots to highlight how a spread between S&P Financials Select Sector and S&P Utilities Select Sector stands to benefit in the coming months. It also describes a hypothetical trade setup using CME E-Mini S&P Select Sector futures which can be used to express the view in a margin-efficient manner. RATE CUTS WILL HURT FINANCIAL FIRMS Financial firms benefit significantly from higher rates, as these drive net interest margin (NIM) expansion, boosting their bottom line. However, when rates start to decrease, this positive impact reverses. The Financials Select Sector ETF (XLF) is comprised of 25% banks, 31% financial services firms, and 16.6% insurance firms. All these firms have benefited from higher rates, albeit the strongest impact may be limited to banks and insurance firms whose overall bottom line is significantly impacted by expanding NIM. In the last three monetary policy pivots, XLF has declined by an average of 5.6% over the following six months. Conversely, at the start of rate hikes, the ETF has typically risen by an average of 3.7% in the subsequent six months. While the most recent pivot in 2019 saw an increase in XLF, the overall average trend suggests a decline. The trend is visible even when examining the relative performance of XLF and SPX. Following rate cuts, the spread declined by an average of 2.8% while during rate increases, it declined by just 1.1%. There is another headwind facing the XLF ETF, particularly banks – rising credit delinquencies. Credit card delinquencies are especially concerning as they stood at the highest level in 13 years as of Q1 2024. Overall delinquencies are also rising and near the highest level since 2021. Updated data from the New York Fed has shown that conditions remained stressed in Q2 with total delinquencies at 3.2%. Particularly concerning were severe (>90 days delinquent) credit card delinquencies at a staggering 10.93%. Consumers are increasingly relying on unsustainable credit card debt to cover expenses. As delinquencies remain elevated, issuing banks must increase loan loss provisions which impacts earnings directly. Source: New York Fed As credit card usage becomes unsustainable, another class of companies in XLF – payment processors - will also be hurt. The largest payment processors (Visa, Mastercard, and Amex) represent nearly 15% of the XLF index. RATE CUTS WILL BENEFIT UTILITY FIRMS Unlike financial firms, utility companies have struggled in a high-rate environment. As their huge capital expenditure is often fueled by debt, higher rates result in narrower profits. As rates decline, debt payments decrease, leading to expanded profit margins for utility firms. Historically, the ETF has shown a significant average increase after rate hikes and a smaller increase after rate cuts. This behavior might be due to investors anticipating a weakening economy following rate cuts, which would favor utility firms. However, the index tends to correct later once rates remain elevated for some time. The impact is close to even when comparing the relative performance against the broader S&P 500 with both periods resulting in a ~6% increase in the spread. Utility firms are also likely to outperform in case of a US recession. Although some of the concerning economic data has normalized over the past week, the risk of a recession in the US persists. As utility firms provide essential services, their cash flows are relatively stable even during recessions. While consumers may cut down on discretionary spending, spending on essential services remains unaffected. Mint Finance previously covered these factors in a separate paper. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP A pivot in Fed Policy is expected in the upcoming FOMC meetings with the CME FedWatch tool signaling 100 basis points of rate cuts in 2024 itself. Rate cuts will impact different sectors differently. While utility firms stand to benefit from lower rates, financial firms may see lower profits. Source: CME FedWatch The spread between CME E-Mini Utilities Select Sector Futures (XAU) and CME E-Mini Financial Select Sector Futures (XAF) has been rising since March as it has favored XAU. The spread responded strongly to a shift in rate cut sentiment as well as the recession signal at the start of the month. The recent correction over the past week offers an improved entry point into the spread. A hypothetical trade setup using XAU futures expiring in September (XAUU2024) and XAF futures expiring in September (XAFU2024) is described below. CME offers margin offset totaling 60% for this spread reducing the capital requirement to USD 3,740. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme. DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME_MINI:XAU1!Long
by mintdotfinance
ICT Long setup in a Hong Kong stock : 941👋Hello Traders, Our 🖥️ AI system detected that there is an H1 or higher timeframe ICT Long setup in HK stock : 941 for Swing trade. Please refer to the details Stop loss, FVG(Buy Zone),open for take profit. For more ideas, you are welcome to visit our profile in tradingview. Have a good day! Please give this post a like if you like this kind of simple idea, your feedback will bring our signal to next better level, thanks for support!
HKEX:941Long
by ICT_Trader_SB
Utilities setting up?The daily chart on XLU provides rationale to keep a place on our watchlist. Recently it made a golden cross and seems to have broken free of a downdraft in price. Now it looks like the RSI could be searching for overbought. One option is a momentum trade targeting the $71+ price. Personally I'd like to see it hit overbought, then that a position of it pulls back down around the 50 & 200 day MSAs. Looks like with some patience there could be 15% out there depending on how things develop.
AMEX:XLULong
by quickshiftinn
"The EUR is poised for a reversal."The signal of trend reversal convergence will appear when the downtrend turns into an uptrend. At that point, in a downtrend, the subsequent lows will be lower than the previous lows. However, oscillating indicators behave differently, as they show that the subsequent lows are higher than the previous lows, indicating that the momentum of the downtrend is weakening. This forms a convergence signal. We can look for opportunities to enter trades at this position with reliable candlestick patterns. However, it is also worth noting that this is bottom-fishing behavior, and we are trading against the current trend, so caution is necessary because not all signals are 100% accurate.
by AdmamTrade
XLU Potential Breakout $XLUXLU Potential Breakout Analysis AMEX:XLU is indicating a potential breakout based on technical analysis, suggesting an opportune moment to consider exploring the utilities sector. Why Utilities Sector? The utilities sector is recognized for its defensive characteristics and stable performance, making it an appealing choice for investors seeking a haven during market volatility. Companies in this sector typically provide essential services such as electricity, water, and gas, which are in constant demand regardless of economic conditions. Noteworthy Companies in the Utilities Sector: NextEra Energy ( NYSE:NEE ): A leading clean energy company focusing on renewable power generation, transmission, and distribution. NextEra Energy's commitment to sustainability and innovation positions it as a key player in the utilities industry. Duke Energy ( NYSE:DUK ): An electric power holding company serving millions of customers across several states. Duke Energy's established presence in the utility sector and ongoing investments in infrastructure make it a reliable choice for investors. American Electric Power ( NASDAQ:AEP ): One of the largest electric utility companies in the United States, providing electricity to millions of customers in various states. With a strong emphasis on modernizing its grid and embracing renewable energy sources, American Electric Power is set for long-term growth. Exploring investments in these companies within the utilities sector could offer a combination of stability and potential upside. Stay tuned to AMEX:XLU for further signals of a breakout to seize the opportunity effectively.
AMEX:XLULong
by holacarlosmartinez
XLU Utilities making a clear statement to Sellers.Utilities (XLU) almost hit this month the Higher Lows trend-line that has been holding for exactly 21 years (since October 2002) and immediately responded with a strong rebound that has already turned the 1M candle green. All this price action taking place in less than 2 weeks, which indicates considerable market movement. Amidst of all that, it broke below the 1M MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time since the COVID crash (March 2020). If it manages to close the month above it, it will be a strong statement towards all direction that the sector considers this level a Support and possibly the end of the Inflation Crisis. Watch closely and you will see that this and the COVID crises are connected with a Higher Highs trend-line, similar to how the DotCom and Housing crises where in the 2000s. Technically this is a straight Higher Highs trend-line that connects all Highs and places the last 21 years of market into a Mega Rising Wedge pattern. The 1M RSI is on a Lower Lows trend-line, which indicates a natural deceleration of the trend but as long as it holds, it sustains it. And right now it is exactly on that trend-line. Do you think this can be a strong message to sellers? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
AMEX:XLU
by TradingShot
Long Brazil Energy CIGCompanhia Energetica de Minas Gerais CEMIG is a Brazil-based holding company engaged in the energy sector. The Company, through its interests in subsidiaries or jointly controlled entities, is engaged in the generation, transmission and distribution of electricity. The Generation division consists of the operation of hydroelectric plants, wind farms and photovoltaic plant. The electric power transmission business consists of transporting power from the facilities where it is generated to points of consumption, distribution networks and Free Consumers. Its distribution operation consists of transfers of electricity from distribution substations to final consumers. In addition, the Firm is also engaged in the natural gas distribution throughout the territory of the state of Minas Gerais.
NYSE:CIGLong
by noam_chom
Seeking Shelter from Recession in the Utilities SectorBoring is better in a recession. Fed Chair reaffirmed his steely resolve to fight inflation. In short, he wants to break the back of inflation "at any cost" to subdue it down to Fed’s target of 2%. Soft-landing is desired. But overcorrection to fend off sticky inflation could tip soft-landing into a hard one. In a recession, economic activities shrink resulting in declining outputs and softening demand across consumers and businesses. Recession leads to rising unemployment and reduced consumer confidence. History has ample evidence demonstrating that defensive sectors typically outperform the broad market index by more than 10% on average. This paper posits a long position in Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF ("XLU") to harvest potential outperformance gains plus a dividend yield of 3.3% and combined with a short position in CME Micro S&P 500 Index Futures. INFLATION REMAINS HOT; FED RESOLVED TO FIGHT IT CAN LEAD TO RECESSION Last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed his determination to tame inflation down to its target 2%. He reasserted his singular focus on restoring price stability in the US. If that requires higher interest rates for longer to get back to 2% target, then so be it. That was the key takeaway from Jackson Hole Central Bankers Symposium in Wyoming. US inflation is much cooler than a year before. History has taught policymakers an expensive lesson to avoid declaring victory too soon. Softening inflation combined with record low unemployment, strong business climate and resilient consumer balance sheets point to a potential soft-landing. However, over correction could tip into a hard landing. WHAT HAPPENS IN A RECESION? During a recession, non-cyclical sectors, like Consumer Staples, Utilities, and Health Care, have historically performed well. The fortunes of these sectors hinge on non-discretionary spending and hence less sensitive to economic fluctuations. These defensive sectors have outperformed the broad market by more than 10% on average during six of seven past recessions. Tech & Real Estate rank among the worst-performers. Dependant on discretionary expenditure, these sectors are the first to face the heat when businesses and consumers cut spending as incomes shrink. UNPACKING THE S&P SELECT SECTOR UTILITIES INDEX The Utilities Select Sector Index ("Utilities Index") is market-cap-weighted and tracks the performance of the largest thirty utility firms in the S&P 500. It aims to deliver exposure to firms from the electric & water utility, independent & renewable power producers, and gas utility industries. The Utilities Sector includes firms that provide essential services such as electricity, natural gas, and water. These firms marshal stable cash flows and low debt levels. Consequently, the sector is described as a defensive play which performs well during economic downturns. The Utilities Index was launched on 16th December 1998. Over the last decade, the index has delivered an average annual return of 5.5%. It exhibits lower risk with a volatility of 12.5%. It is popular among long term investors looking for a defensive investment vehicle. As of August 2023, the Utilities Index reveals an aggregate price-to-cash flow ratio of 10.1x, price-to-earnings of 19x, and one-year forward price-to-earnings ratio of 17x. Largest firm in the index weighs in with a market cap of USD 136.6 billion. The smallest firm has a market cap of USD 8.5 billion. Weighted average market cap of the index stands at USD 51.15 billion. Top ten constituents forming 59% of the Utilities Index as of 22nd August 2023 are: • NextEra Energy (14.85%) • Southern Company (8.03%) • Duke Energy (7.5%) • Sempra (4.88%) • American Electric Power (4.40%) • Dominion Energy (4.34%) • Exelon Corporation (4.32%) • Constellation Energy Corporation (3.75%) • Xcel Energy Inc. (3.47%) • Consolidated Edison Inc. (3.37%) Twelve-month price targets for the top-10 in the Utilities Index looks compellingly strong except for Constellation Energy and Consolidated Edison. Mean 12-month price targets are on average 14% above the closing price as of August 25th. Investors securing a long position in the index can expect to generate positive returns from capital gains in addition to a healthy dividend yield. RESILIENCE OF UTILITIES SECTOR IN A RECESSION Experts who have been calling recession have been stumped and humbled with the resilience demonstrated by corporations and consumers. A recession may be round the corner. Or we are living through a rolling recession and rolling recovery which impact one sector at a time. The chart below produced by State Street Research powerfully captures various sector performance across business cycles. If a recession is round the corner, then holding a long position in Utilities is an astute investor choice. COMPREHENDING UTILITIES SELECT SECTOR SPDR ETF ("XLU") XLU is a convenient low-cost option for investors to secure exposure to the U.S. utilities sector. It was launched in Dec 1998 and has a low expense ratio of 0.1% of AUM. XLU's AUM stands at USD 14.39 billion. Over the last six months, XLU has had a net inflow of USD 150.2 million. XLU has a 20-day volatility of 12% and a beta of 0.52x. It pays out an annual dividend of USD 2.10 amounting to an annual dividend yield of 3.31%. TRADE SET UP A sector's outperformance does not necessarily mean that it will appreciate during a recession. Since, equity prices generally decline during recessions, outperformance can also mean that the decline in defensive and non-cyclical sectors will be less severe than the decline in growth sectors. Investors can use a spread position to benefit from sectoral outperformance even when equity prices decline. This is because the losses from the long leg will be offset by profits from the short leg which is likely to perform worse. The proposed trade set up comprises of a long position in XLU and a short position in CME Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Index Futures expiring in December 2023 (MESZ2023). The XLU ETF settled at USD 63.63 per share on August 25th. Each lot of MESZ2023 provides a notional exposure of index value times USD 5. MESZ2023 settled at 4463 on August 25th delivering a notional value of USD 22,315. • Entry: 0.0142 • Target: 0.0160 • Stop Loss: 0.0135 • Profit at Target: USD 5,347 • Loss at Stop: USD 2,200 • Reward/Risk: 2.43x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
AMEX:XLULong
by mintdotfinance
ARIS - A water company consistently rising LONGARIS on the daily chart is consistently rising with big earnings beats both in the past month and early May. The ZL MACD is curling up towards a cross of lines under the low amplitude histogram. The dual time frame RS indicator shows consistent lines above the 50 and the lower TF line in green above the higher TF line in black. Stock is 20% higher in 3 months a decent return for a utility stock while the market is in chaos possibly teetering on a crash. Utility stocks are slow and steady with a low beta and lack of general market responsiveness. I will take along stock trade here and check as to the possibilities for a call option.
NYSE:ARISLong
by AwesomeAvani
2
DTE Energy WCA - Symmetrical TriangleCompany: DTE Energy Company Ticker: DTE Exchange: NYSE Sector: Utilities Introduction: In today's analysis, we are examining DTE Energy Company (DTE) on the NYSE, a key player in the utilities sector. The weekly chart reveals a potential bullish reversal in the form of a Symmetrical Triangle pattern that has been forming over the past 42 weeks. Symmetrical Triangle Pattern: The Symmetrical Triangle pattern is typically a sign of indecision - a battle between the bears and the bulls. However, in this instance, it seems to be acting as a reversal pattern after a downward trend. Analysis: The previous trend for DTE Energy was downward, but this seems to have been interrupted by the symmetrical triangle pattern, suggesting a potential reversal. The triangle has 2 points of contact with both the lower and upper diagonal boundaries. The price is currently above the 200 EMA, indicating a bullish environment. Furthermore, we've recently observed a breakout above the upper diagonal boundary, which would support a long entry. The price target following a successful breakout is set at 137.43, representing an estimated increase of 21.63%. However, a minor resistance could be encountered at around the 138 level. Conclusion: DTE Energy's weekly chart presents an encouraging bullish reversal setup. If confirmed by sustained price action above the triangle's upper boundary, this could provide a compelling long trading opportunity. It's important to monitor the potential resistance at 138, as it could affect the continuation of the bullish trend. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please remember, this analysis should form part of your comprehensive market research and risk management strategy, and it is not direct trading advice. If you found this analysis helpful, please consider liking, sharing, and following for more insights. Wishing you successful trading! Best regards, Karim Subhieh Disclaimer: This analysis is not financial advice and is intended for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
NYSE:DTELong
by KarimSubhieh
NEP - decent short term opportunityPublishing an update to an unsuccessful projection with NYSE:NEP last month. It was sitting at the 200MA and it's most recent drawdown had triggered a fear signal. These are less common in the utilities sector, which made it look like a decent contrarian opportunity. Throughout the remainder of March we saw a rotation out of safety sectors like utilities and staples into growth sectors like tech and discretionary, and NEP fell another 13% (wicking below where I would normally place my stop loss). This is an interesting price point for NEP. It's at the center of its long term channel, with the lower band of the channel historically being tested during broad market drawdowns. Earnings are coming up this month and NEP has a history of slight increases after both earnings beats and misses. We see a recent lower low (not good) but bullish divergence between RSI and price (good). Additionally, when a major support level like the 200MA fails that level typically becomes overhead resistance, so any favorable opportunity here will likely be brief. While NEP and utilities may experience continued downtrend if the broader market continues to favor growth, an entry here with profit taking at the 200MA will represent a good opportunity to accumulate. I only follow this strategy for positions that I plan to hold for the long term. The next major support level below this is ~$52.50 NEE XLU
NYSE:NEPLong
by Ben_1148x2
WTRG | Oversold Utility Co. | LONGEssential Utilities, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates regulated utilities that provide water, wastewater, or natural gas services in the United States. The company operates through Regulated Water and Regulated Natural Gas segments. It offers water services through operating and maintenance contract with municipal authorities and other parties. The company also provides non-utility raw water supply services for firms in the natural gas drilling industry; and water and sewer line protection solutions, and repair services to households. It serves approximately 8.8 million residential water, commercial water, fire protection, industrial water, wastewater, and other water and utility customers in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Texas, Illinois, North Carolina, New Jersey, Indiana, Virginia, West Virginia, and Kentucky under the Aqua and Peoples brands. The company was formerly known as Aqua America, Inc. and changed its name to Essential Utilities, Inc. in February 2020. Essential Utilities, Inc. was founded in 1886 and is headquartered in Bryn Mawr, Pennsylvania.
NYSE:WTRGLong
by DivergenceSeeker
3
SO | Utilities Companies Are Oversold | BounceThe Southern Company, through its subsidiaries, engages in the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity. It operates through Gas Distribution Operations, Gas Pipeline Investments, Wholesale Gas Services, and Gas Marketing Services segments. The company also develops, constructs, acquires, owns, and manages power generation assets, including renewable energy projects and sells electricity in the wholesale market; and distributes natural gas in Illinois, Georgia, Virginia, and Tennessee, as well as provides gas marketing services, wholesale gas services, and gas pipeline investments operations. In addition, it owns and/or operates 30 hydroelectric generating stations, 24 fossil fuel generating stations, three nuclear generating stations, 13 combined cycle/cogeneration stations, 45 solar facilities, 15 wind facilities, one fuel cell facility, and four battery storage facility; and constructs, operates, and maintains 76,289 miles of natural gas pipelines and 14 storage facilities with total capacity of 157 Bcf to provide natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company serves approximately 8.7 million electric and gas utility customers. Further, the company offers digital wireless communications and fiber optics services. The Southern Company was incorporated in 1945 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
NYSE:SOLong
by DivergenceSeeker
2