Atlantic Power Corp: A Stock to Hold for DecadesWhile this chart is not exactly gorgeous, Atlantic Power Corp (ATP) has remained on top of my watch-list for quite some-time.
Firstly, ATP represents one of the most promising companies to eventually turn into a 20, 30, 40 and 50.00 stock in 5-10 years like some of the behemoths like Fortis.
Secondly, ATP has focused their portfolio strongly into the biomass energy sector which represents the future for energy.
Thirdly, most importantly, and finally, the company has several large contracts that are signed near 2030 and some over 2040 which is exceptional news for investors.
Sure its a dollar stock and it represents no dividend and more volatility, but in-time it will triple and quadruple in value. The fact we are heading into a global recession where interest rates will remain suppressed (good for the utility sector), this could give it a nice boost over the next few years.
One thing you want to assure in this upcoming recession is you diversify into companies with proven free cash flow; free cash flow is king and those who are in debt will get burned irrespective of how they are or have performed over the last little while.
Earnings come out on November 4th.
- zSplit
Utilities
XLU Buyers hopping in again?The defensive utilities sector has been on a strong uptrend since 2018 as markets trembled with uncertainty and bulls threatened to buck. After some profit-taking at 65 dollars, there is reason to believe that there may be another leg up as buyers seem to be returning with bullish price actions observed last trading session.
US SECTOR SERIES FINALE 11/11: UTILITIES(XLU)+ESSENTIAL TA NOTESSERIES FINALE ; Episode 11/11 : US (SPX) Sectors Technical Analysis Series - 31st of July 2019 (4 Minute Read)
Since this is the Series Finale I will try to holistically summarize the whole series of 11 Episodes on all the US sectors.
The essential notes from this chart are the following(also included in the comments) :
1 . Compared to the previous expansion of 2002-2007 ; the current expansion of US Utilities has yielded a much slower growth . This can be seen from the chart as the current bullish channel is at the bottom range of the pitchfork. Despite this fact, the volume has kept growing continuously from which statement several indications can be derived. To keep it simple and as obviously as it can be, a good portion of the volume growth can be attributed to the funds flow from asset classes that are based on inflation( pension funds, real estate, fixed income securities etc etc ) into equities characterised as defensive as part of XLU, XLP, XLV .
2 . From the cycle lines it can be seen that we narrowly escaped a recession in 2015-2016 . However, I do not think that this will be the case come by the next drop in the cycle circa-2021. Fundamentally, due to the low global growth that dominated the 2015-2016 correction particularly in the emerging markets-in effect due to President Trump the cycle extended . Despite my disagreement with his absurd trade and tax policies , I have to give credit where credit is due. Now at the same time, I do not think that a cycle extension is necessarily good; in a way it means that the fundamental & structural issues that develop in the economy during an expansion continue to build up even more. The higher it tops= the lower it will bottom (% wise).
3 . Elections 2020 , US/China trade deal and Brexit will dominate the negative momentum in the upcoming months and years. Global growth has slowed down quite a bit and it's way overdue for a recession. In fact, past June 2019, we have been in the longest expansion on record, lasting more than 10 years(122 months now).
Regarding the key takeaways from the XLU chart are all labelled above: structural supports, channel supports and bullish targets . I do not see a need to continually repeat myself . Make sure to check out the comments for detailed indicator analysis.
This episode concludes the show . Hope you enjoyed it- I certainly did.
This is just a brief "free" and very detailed analysis. Perhaps in the future I might form a premium group, to whose members I will provide all the details of my research. For any use of this show for references to any corporations or individuals that get inspired from my ideas, I'd appreciate it I am being given credit for my efforts .
>>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>>
However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details, every thumbs up or follow is greatly appreciated !
Step_Ahead_oftheMarket-
Make sure to check all the previous episodes on the US Sectors for more holistic understanding :
EPISODE 10 : US COMMUNICATIONS ( XLC )
EPISODE 9 : US REAL ESTATE ( XLRE )
Full Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references- contact me through any of my channels.
PG&E trend line breakoutAfter some recent analyst upgrades, PG&E got a big breakout above its downward trend line this morning. It could move upward or it could move downward, but it should stay above that trend line. This is the first bullish sign that PG&E is looking to form a bottom. I've taken a small entry here. If it moves downward to form a U-shaped bottom, I will look to take a larger entry near the bottom.
XLU Utilities shortthis trade is for next 1-2months and I'm targeting at around 2% correction
MCClellan Summation Index was over 2k
Target $46.55trading in a long accumulation channel, testing bottom support level - can move up fast
XLU rises after consolidation periodsUtilities are defensive and traditionally do well in summer, when risk stocks suffer from ‘Sell in May’. In the last six consolidations, which often start around May, the price moves up after the consolidation ends.
Overall, the ETF has followed a clear parallel channel for four years now, and it is affected much less by macro events.
Each consolidation has been followed by a rise of around 6.7% so an entry at 58 (.30 below current), with a stop of 56.50 (below the consolidation low and the lower current channel (in red, I have treated Xmas 2018 as an outlier), and a target of 62.50 (where the upper channel will be on Oct 31, traditionally the end of the summer season neatly gives a 3:1 trade to run for six months.
Not the most exciting of trades, but safer than most.
PCG = REKTA perfect "Buy When There's Blood In The Streets" opportunity? I mean what's going to happen. Residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural customers in Northern and Central California will no longer be using electricity and natural gas?
XLU (Defensive) Still in ChannelXLU, the SPDR Utility Sector is well-known, high div paying defensive, and has not broken support like SPY as a whole. Let's play safe with a 1.6:1 trade, with stop below the lower tramline and target the confluence high of the bullish and moderate cases, as shown by the regular and dotted lines. Aggressive traders could set the stop at 53.75, reflecting the 52-55% pullback last time.
Why you buy Utilities in a slowing growth environmentUtilities have started to outperform, meanwhile other sectors are underperforming. Just looking at history, you only have to go back to 2015-2016's industrial mini recession and EM recession to see how utilities outperformed other sectors. During this time, $XLU rose 25% while the S&P was flat, and technology / other cyclicals were all negative.
Cyclical sectors had their time, now utilities get to shine as other sectors get hit hard.
SO Head and Shoulders / Descending Triangle / Broadening Wedge1D Chart. Expecting a bull run till 46 or so then back down
$XLU bullish credit spread for this #FridayNew bullish credit spread on XLU . Opened and moved above the $53 mark this morning. Looking for a higher low and mid 52s to confirm as support early this week.
Entry 53.05
Break even 53.21
Max profit 53.50
0.78:1 risk/reward
XLU - Bullish pennant getting ready to breakout for big run up!A bullish pennant forming with a potential for a large breakout to the upside. See chart for pattern and price targets.
XLU - UtilitiesIV isn't extremely high, but has spiked up a bit in Utilities, so I'm looking at placing a strangle here.
-1 Sept21 50/54 strangle for $1.14 cr. I will likely manage this position at 50% and we'll deal with specific loss mgmts when we get there.
Short utilities for a 20% drop2-year rising wedge broke down and retested.
The retest itself formed another rising wedge.
Stop over this retest high at 51.50. Pattern target is 40.50
10x potential return
Add to position on break of minor wedge
XLU long ideaUtilities (XLU) might be a good long idea here. As the markets get choppy, utilities like XLU might hold up well. Price above the 10sma and volume increasing.
Utility average bottoming?40 month moving average is one of my basic markers for fair value. Will it hold the channel?
Utilities Staging a Come-back
Utilities have taken a major hit in the risk-on market environment we've seen lately. Last week $XLU completed a perfect 61.8% retracement of recent gains and showed a strong bounce at that key support level. I think we have an excellent buy for a swing trade at this level with a view to hold patiently for 1-3 months and take profit at all time highs.
