Uvix
VIX to $17 Soon for another key trend line resistance test!Ensure you hedge your trades and know your maximum loss and profit, especially if you have limited funds to dollar cost average or are trading options.
For informational and educational purposes only, I prefer buying laddered call options on UVIX (1.5x), VXX (1x), and UVXY (2x) at sub-$13 levels over 2-4 weeks that align with my long "risk on" call expirations. This way, I can sell the pops and use the proceeds to add to my most committed "risk on" positions.
Good luck!
@candlestickninjatv
Buy VIX Futs with an ETF for simplicity before Santa rally overDowbt Im only one who is front running reversal unjustified market rally with no earning proof driven by inflation that is diminishing no longer supporting earnings JPM'a theory basically mid this pas year but he was correct but too early to the earnings crash party! Now that Dem's fiscal punch bowl is nearly empty adding 7 trillion to national debt in less than a year to help midterms and markets just priced in 5 rate cuts and earnings multiples at 20 (long-term=15) including mag-7 take out mag-7 not so hot). Hard to justify any more growth with excelorating diss-inflation and "black-swan" risk is non-black swan character as so many increasingly potential systemic risk just keep stacking up, plus a corrupted Presidential Administration, Congress, Dept. of Justice, FBI, Dept. of homeland security, school system, universities, and mainstream media have perpetuated/caused the problem with bs employment numbers, omissions and flat out lies as well as staring wars, ruining trade agreements and unleashing the worst inflation in 40 years all about to collapse from sheer societal rejection that will most likely be exposed causing worst crash best described by Jeremy Gratham (just YouTube him if your not familiar with the oldest and most historically-successful "Wall-Streeter perma-bear")
NOTICE: Expressions are not recommendation or advice. If you are not competent then obviously should consult what is called an "Advisor" on the subject. Don't blame me if you make a decision based on this as it is only an opinion and past performance does not constitute a reasonable basis for future performance or non-performance as we don't have a time-machine obviously this goes without saying but some really doubt people make it a habit to assume they know with certainty and can guarantee what the future holds and to those I say sit down and humble your self or the market will humble you for yourself in "New York Second," and that is pretty fast. Just saying, don't be a fool and use common sense and trade size and don't blame others for your decisions, and, trade responsibly.
VIX - The 72-Handle PreludeI will reiterate again, as I have in my past posts, notably:
Nasdaq NQ - A Fundamental and Technical Warning Signal
That if you are bullish on US equities into the future and want to see a healthy economy into '24 and '25, you DO NOT want to see a new all time high to be set yet.
Instead, you want a correction.
A major correction is just that: a correction. A correction gives a number of elements an opportunity to rebalance and reload so that a new phase of markup, and thus profits for longs, can unfold.
The VIX controls a lot of things, namely the price of options. Really, what this means for most people is it controls the price of "protection," i.e. puts.
And since the VIX is now trading at a low not seen since June of '21 and in an area of accumulation that spanned 3 years between '18 and '20, if you think a new all time high on equities is coming, you're actually saying that VIX is going to trade to 5.
And you may very well be right. It's a very difficult situation.
However, net liquidity is coming out of the system, and the indexes and equities rallied from mid-June to mid-August of last year. The algorithm rarely runs the same pattern at the same time twice.
Moreover, there's a lot of problems brewing in this world with the War in Ukraine connected to Vladimir Putin and the situation in mainland China with Xi Jinping still at the helm of the notorious and unforgivable Chinese Communist Party.
There are handles a major arranged correction in the markets are not going to print on VIX.
1. VIX will not print GFC highs
2. VIX will not print the millennial-titled "Coronavirus Disease 2019" highs
3. VIX will not print 50-handles
Instead, VIX, in my opinion, will print a 72-handle.
One of the truths in the market place is the easiest and most consistent money is not only that the market goes up, but selling volatility after the dust on periodical propaganda has settled is free money.
A free money train always continues and you're never a part of it because you're trying to long MULN and Bed Bloodbath and Beyond for a MOASS.
So, let's take a look at the ETFs. There are some notable pieces of evidence in the price action that show something ought to change, and quickly.
The first is in the SVXY inverse VIX ETF, which has taken out the pre-COVID high, and by a lot.
LT short seller funds: they dead.
But a more notable case is that of the UVIX 2x leveraged bull ETF
It was 5:1 reverse split to start the year, had one bounce during the bank collapse hysteria, and then lost 80% of its value.
UVIX trades under $1 pre-split.
You're looking for a MOASS on shitcoins, but here's a real opportunity.
Notable is also that HUV, the Toronto Stock Exchange VIX (non-levered bull) ETF, is in a similar boat.
It 6:1 reverse split in February, had one bounce, and lost half its value, trading to barely over $3 pre-split.
You can care about Canada because there are arbitrage opportunities with the USDCAD currency pair and because our holidays and your holidays are not the same, like "Juneteenth," and so there is opportunity in manipulation.
What I can say is that there's an argument, if nothing else, to long volatility in extreme situations as a way of defending your long positions.
People are willing to allocate 40 percent of their portfolio to bonds that just don't go up when the market pumps and don't go up when the market goes down.
So why not hedge with volatility?
That being said, if Nasdaq goes to 9,000 points, are you really willing to hold your $400 NVDIA?
Humans never believe in what they don't see. They only believe after they've been shown, and then it's too late.
What I truly hope for everyone who has a kind heart is not only that you can preserve your money through the chaos and manipulation, but walk out of the machinations stronger, better, healthier, and with a bright future.
For this, and only this, is what you have waited for.
Entering SDOW is the ideaDIA daily went to a sell, waiting for price action to approach the P.O.M.O Position of maximum opportunity on DIA. With such a nice risk reward why not. My idea would be to play it via SDOW
This short is riskier, Vix 1hr and 15min are R/R. DIA and SPY 1hrs went green. You just want to note the daily went to sell on DIA, waiting for it to retrace up to the pomo'y area for a small risk trade.
Overall trading this way (waiting for a pomo that meets your bias) is about like a sore peter, you just can't beat it.
AMEX:SDOW
AMEX:DIA
AMEX:SPY
IWM - Russell 2000 Small Cap ETF - OVERBOUGHTRSI has fallen back under 70 & ADX is rising. Selling could become a STRONG TREND as the dollar rebounds with rising yields. Expecting a $VIX spike to occur if $DXY continues upward. Staying HEDGED for the DEBT BUBBLE implosion with $UVIX $UVXY $HDGE $TZA
Nasdaq Futures - 5 Month BEAR FLAGBulls are being baited into "the new bull market" theory as consumer DEBT is at all time highs with rates at extremely high levels AND STILL RISING. Layoffs are picking up and the debt will become unserviceable leading to defaults. Call writers are raking in profits as naive "investors" GAMBLE their life savings on call options. The desire for "instant gratification" will lead to their demise.
Staying HEDGED with $UVIX for DEBT CRISIS.
VIX Futures - Oversold - INCOMING SURGEEvery time RSI has reached the 30 level it has bounced aggressively. With the recent fall of #kingdollar, stocks & crypto spike, & $VIX crush, I expect a REVERSAL PATTERN with a SURGE IN VOLATILITY. If margin calls get triggered we could see a MASSIVE WATERFALL SELLOFF in RISK "assets". Protect your #kingdollar. HEDGED with for CRISIS with $UVIX $UVXY. GL.
TLT - US 20 Year Treasury SELLOFF Treasury yield is the effective annual interest rate that the U.S. government pays on one of its debt obligations, expressed as a percentage. Put another way, Treasury yield is the annual return investors can expect from holding a U.S. government security with a given maturity.
Treasury yields don't just affect how much the government pays to borrow and how much investors earn by buying government bonds. They also influence the interest rates consumers and businesses pay on loans to buy real estate, vehicles, and equipment.
Treasury yields also show how investors assess the economy's prospects. The higher the yields on long-term U.S. Treasuries, the more confidence investors have in the economic outlook. But high long-term yields can also be a signal of rising inflation expectations.
Treasury yields are inversely related to Treasury prices.
Treasury yields can go up, sending bond prices lower, if the Federal Reserve increases its target for the federal funds rate (in other words, if it tightens monetary policy), or even if investors merely come to expect the fed funds rate to go up.
An inverted yield curve on which the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has declined below that on the 2-year Treasury note (to cite just one popular benchmark) has usually preceded recessions.
A rising yield indicates falling demand for Treasury bonds, which means investors prefer higher-risk, higher-reward investments. STONKS GO UP, FORCING THE FED TO REMAIN HAWKISH! A falling yield suggests the opposite.
VVIX Lowest ADX Reading in History - WARNINGThe weekly ADX indicator is sitting at 8 (NO TREND) at the same time VVIX reached it's lowest value since March 2017. EXTREME COMPLACENCY can be presumed. A market without fear is DANGEROUS. Either markets continue higher in the face of continuing rate hikes & QT or markets SELLOFF & VIX spikes catching everyone offsides. I go with the latter. Expecting VVIX ADX to SURGE WITH $VIX. Protect your #kingdollar. HEDGED for crisis with $UVIX $UVXY. GL
DXY Monthly - King Dollar - ResurgenceThe ADX indicator was rising from 15 (weak trend) to 35 (strong trend) since March 2022 before a recent decline. As the dollar has lost its strength, the ADX rolled over along with RSI. I believe the Dollar will find support here and begin another uptrend. Potentially a violent upswing as the Fed HAS NOT PIVOTED and continues to tighten financial conditions through more rate hikes and continuing QT. The ADX should rise again and I believe beyond the noted resistance of 40. The masses are FOMOing into stocks & crypto yet again with Greed/Fear index at GREED level 63. NAMO/NYMO are also the most elevated in years. $VIX has collapsed to 18 showing FEAR IS ABSENT. A market without fear is DANGEROUS! Protect your #kingdollar as RISK "assets" are primed for a WATERFALL SELLOFF due to over leveraged and over concentrated positions. The DEBT BUBBLE IMPLOSION is near. GL.
08/19/2020 UVXY long - New all-time high means time to consider shorting the market especially there is so much gap between fundamental and equity.
Usually, this is the time when institutions and big banks take their profit and dump all the leftovers to retail. VIX will be a good hedge to an unexpected fall in the market.
UVIX recently got out of the falling wedge, which can be a bullish sign.
19.20-30 area is acting as good support.
SL place below: 19.10
Good luck!