VIX 10% UP ?In most cases in history, the VIX index doesn't leave GAPS behind & tends to close them.
Will it happen again this time? Potentially 10% up. UVIX (2X Long VIX Futures ETF)
Only an idea and not a recommendation for trading
UVXY
$UVXY: the next move, to $50?I've been watching the CBOE:UVXY for months now trying to anticipate the next large move. Throughout September and October I was anticipating a larger move to play out, but we ended up just trading in a range. Luckily got a few profitable moves in the chop and got out at the high right before the election.
Then I thought there would be a larger drop. I entered in the low FWB:20S earlier this week and sold my spot position today on the move higher.
Now what I'm anticipating from here is a decline in vol early in the week and a rally in the market. On Tuesday or Wednesday, I'd be looking to go long volatility again as I think the NVDA reaction after market close Wednesday is going to cause some volatility in the markets.
Lots of reasons are lining up to believe the outcome of NVDA earnings will be bearish. I have a pivot on the chart on Wednesday. The NVDA chart has stalled at resistance and gapped lower.
Etc.
I think this will be the last large move in vol until early 2025 (Feb-March).So in other words, after this selloff the market rallies into Q1 2025.
In 2025, we will make volatility great again. I think we're going to see a resurgence of vol and we're going to see covid style numbers get printed in vol with 200-400% moves.
However, let's wait until this move plays out first before we focus on 2025.
I'm looking to enter calls early next week for 12/20 $30C.
Correction comingCheck out the VIX, just landed on the 20 level. I think is going to retest t he 30 level soon. Tomorrow Core PPI numbers are out. This could be the trigger. You can buy calls of VXX or UVXY if you want to play this one. I have my shorts well loaded. Don't need options.
Long $UVXY 6x- 20x gains ahead?Finally got the reversal I've been looking for in $UVXY.
My entry was at $23 and I think we have a large move ahead of us. If we look at the chart, we have our first green flat bottomed Heikin Ashi candle.
Normally with a move like today's people are exiting puts and shorting UVXY, but I think this move is just starting and vol is about to become unpinned.
Over the coming 1-2 months, I think we can see 6x-20x gains through UVXY.
I'm looking for price to test at a minimum the $168 level and reach a potential high of $457.
I'll start taking profits in the $168-242 range and see if we can get all the way up to the top of the range.
Playing this both through a large spot position and through options.
Let's see what happens in the coming months.
VIX to $17 Soon for another key trend line resistance test!Ensure you hedge your trades and know your maximum loss and profit, especially if you have limited funds to dollar cost average or are trading options.
For informational and educational purposes only, I prefer buying laddered call options on UVIX (1.5x), VXX (1x), and UVXY (2x) at sub-$13 levels over 2-4 weeks that align with my long "risk on" call expirations. This way, I can sell the pops and use the proceeds to add to my most committed "risk on" positions.
Good luck!
@candlestickninjatv
The formerly dead VIX has a chance of forming a golden cross50 DMA should easily cross the 200 DMA if Iran will retaliate and it looks like they are set to do so.
Can't stand politics, but we have to respect the pillars in order: Macro, Fundamental and finally Technicals,
UVXY crosses over mean anchored VWAP LONGUVXY which leverages the VIX as a measure of volatility / greed/ fear has finally crossed
over the mean anchored VWAP. This is a sign of bullish momentum and perhaps a signal that
traders should hedge or consider their positions in terms of hard risk management. Those
who traded this move up today made 10% or better in the trade. Those who bought call options
expiring tomorrow made 10X and those with call options for next Friday made 5X overnight.
Tomorrow is another day. Likely the market will rise from the correction and UXVY will fade
a bit. No matter, its value for insurance and hedging is reinforced on days like the past day.
I am maintaining a full position aside the call options closed at the afternoon bell which
expire on Friday and had time decay to contend with. My first target is 7.75 then comes
8.05 and 8.45. I will take off 20% at each target and keep the others for insurance for
a true market crash or black swan event to buffer losses while stops get hit.
UVXY - VIX Futures ETF- rises from a falling wedge breakout LONGUVXY on the 30- minute chart is now in an establish falling wedge breakout. Increasing
volumes lend support for bullish momentum as does the fear that rate cuts may be postponed
the the market's bullrun may stall and correct. This chart is left clean with only trend lines
drawn in recognizing that quite a few traders only have a basic subscription on Tradingview
without the luxury of multiple indicators, alerts and so on. A rise in the VIX may be a signal to
start trimming long positions or hedging with short trades.
UVXY the VIXX following ETF ShortUVXY the fear and volatility ETF ran up nearly 10% on the past trading day before
retracing a bit all due to the quick about-face in the market at about 1PM New York time.
It moved from the lows at the opening bell and let up with after hours profit taking.
The relative volatility indicator shows the volatility pump and then dump.
The dual signal RSI indicator shows the low time frame in blue dropping faster
than the higher time frame in black. I see this as a good setup for a short trade
that could yield half of the run-up over the next two trading days or 5% by
next Tuesday, August 1. The stop loss set at the top wicking at 17.25 while the target
the pivot low from which price began at 15.55. I have contemplated a put option
on this but have not yet reviewed the options chain. Price action down may begin
slow until price crosses under the POC line of the volume profile and then accelerate
as price drops below the high volume area into relative volume voids.
SPY Correction Coming?Hello everyone!
First two new charts for 2024. Another year another upside logic market. We're breaking ATH with continually decaying economic data, new banking troubles, new wars, and an election year and markets ignore it all. It's a Fed controlled market so mysterious!?
Anyhow, in this chart I did a vague not so accurate EW that began Jan 2022 that bottomed in Oct 2022 which basically bounced off the Feb 2020 highs which pushed us into this new bull market. We finally broke the ATH for the S&P today with 5015ish, which makes me believe we should soon see a corrective wave hit.
The first support will be early Jan support of 475. If this stays within this channel, we should see the correction over (C) at the same level as (2) of the bear market of 2022 which is March/April of 455ish giving us about a 10% correction.
Now, this is all IF markets go as planned and there are no external factors influencing selling such as a larger scale geopolitical war, banking failures and so on. This is based off a market that is going at the current pace.
That being said, I do see a major geopolitical event that will shake markets to their core but until then, we base our market moves on the Feds dovish nonsense.
Technicals:
- RSI, MACD are about peaked.
- VIX is at critical levels
S&P SPY OutlookThis market has been quite a tough one to figure out. As I have stated numerous times, it's become a game of chance. The markets have proven to completely ignore the horrible economic data, missed earnings, geopolitical crisis, QT, and so on.
At this rate the stock market I believe is owned by just a small number of people and so I suspect we will see less and less significant moves in the market like we did in March 2020 and January 2021. Retail investors are nothing more than a drop in the water.
This chart is based on the slowing inflation. We could see more downward pressure due to persistent inflation and rate hikes from the Fed, but from the looks of it, the QT will give way to QE once again and markets will clearly love that because it was QE that caused the 14-year bull market since QE was introduced in 2008. Without QE, markets are dead. Need proof? Google "S&P vs Fed Balance Sheet" you'll see that on the same week as QE was announced in 2020, was the same week markets started artificially rising and setting new all time high records during a PANDEMIC. Again, logical? No. Manipulation? Absolutely.
I said it before and I'll say it again, once the Fed enacts QE again, it'll be the last time the do it. The economy and markets may like QE, but with it will bring a currency crisis as foreign holders will simply lose trust in the dollar. Almost every BRICS nation has dropped the dollar. Saudi is moving towards pricing oil in other currencies and the USD will be lights out. I believe we will see a currency crisis within 2-years. DXY will fall, inflation will rise once again because of new debt from QE and it'll be hell on earth for wall street and main street.
You read it here. Check back, let's see what happens. In the short term, I expect some selling towards the mid line, and worse case is the bottom of the trendline. If we break through that bottom yellow, than it's gone. We could see markets just go to new all time highs because a 14-year bull market wasn't enough? The thing is, people have no idea whether to get in or stay out because we're just shy of ATH of the Dow. Who knows.... roll the dice and guess.
SPY ScenarioIf we use the Elliots Wave like in 2022, this is how it may play out. The selling has been steep enough to apply the Elliots Wave here.
Catalysts for Oct is a hotter than expected CPI/PPI, especially with fuel inflation rising and fuel prices rising back near record highs.
Bearish Technicals: (1-Week)
- RSI
- MACD
- MFI
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On the contrary, these moves while are some steep selling are not enough (yet) to say its a resumption of the crash that started Jan 2022. Perhaps we bounce off the trend line of Oct 2022, March 2023 and move back up for some unmerited reason?
UXVY Potential Short Term BounceUsing the previous bounce back in September 1st and had a month of bullish trading, I believe that in the near short term there may be another bounce. The RSI is beginning to show signs of upward strength. Despite this, there is strong bearish pressure as of now. Keeping an eye on this pair.
$SPX analysis short & longer termCBOE:SPX chart is quite INTERESTING.
We can see the obvious short term downtrend.
We're currently at the bottom part of the GAP.
Volume has been a lil lighter, holiday is likely the reason.
RSI broke the downtrend it was in
Maintained the longer term 2022 low up trend.
Can AMEX:SPY reach the top part of the current downtrend?
AMEX:SPXS AMEX:SPXL
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Weekly CBOE:SPX
Trading under the red moving avgerage.
Still looks similar to 2022.
Monthly AMEX:SPY
MACD & RSI bounce do not look very strong from 9/22 lows.
Does look like a lil bit like a cup & handle formation, interesting.
Time will tell if that is what is forming/formed.
TVC:VIX not showing much on the Monthly charts.
Weekly MACD & RSI is showing some strength.
$MQ reversal play 👁🗨️*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks*
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This afternoon my team purchased shares of FinTech company Marqeta $MQ at $4 per share.
Our Entry: $4.00
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SVXY rises on returning greed or trader confidence LONGSVXY runs inverse to UVXY- it was trending up for weeks but fell off the
cliff with the VIXX spike on the fed news of the debt rating downgraded
( like the US posting an earnings miss) a 7% adjustment in almost no time.
The analysis now is the red candlestick pattern is that of inside bars,
a Doji then a green bar and a red. The zero-lag MACD has had a line cross
under the histogram showing bullish divergence coming into that indicator.
Price has come to rest for support on the one standard deviation line below
the mean VWAP. From this analysis I will take a long trade targeting the
POC line of the volume profile 87.5 as the final target for 66% of the trade
after taking 33% off at the mean anchored vwap at 85.85 The stop loss
today's pivot low of 82.85. This offers a very favorable risk to reward as
trader positive sentiment recovers.
SVXY a volatility ETF play LONGSVXY is the ETF shorting the VIXX ( and UVXY) which pumped hard this past trading
session. It goes up when volatility goes down and vice-vera. VIXX is expected to
drop after the trama in the market starting at 1PM when the Treasuries auctions
were duds with little transactions occurring and the financial data reported in
the late morning. SVXY dropped to its near term lows as the VIXX too off.
SVXY bounced above the long term anchored mean black VWAP line which provides
a logical stop loss at 85.65. The relative trend indicator shows the dip and early
recovery while the RS indicator shows low and high time frame lines bottoming
and reversing with the low blue line above the higher black time frame line.
I see this as a long trade setup targeting the pivot highs in the near left of the
price trend or about 90.5, A similar trade would be to short UVXY in a trend down.
UVXY Greed Fear Volatility 20% in 24 hoursUVXY trades inverse to the general market direction in a leveraged manner. An example
of this is shown on the current chart 15 minutes time frame of the price action this week.
I have added two indicators the buy low sell high composite and price volume trend to
support entries and exits which are typically done on lower time frame charts. On the chart,
if a long trade was taken when the BLSH indicator went from red to green on Wednesday
afternoon and was held for about 22 hours until price peaked coincident with both the BLSH
indicator and the PVT both peaking, the trade would have closed with 20% realized profit.
Overall, I will watch UVXY as a means to trade any further downturn in the general market.
UVXY Potential Early Bear Flag Channel Entry at Moving AveragesThe UVXY is currently trading at the 89 Day EMA among other Moving Averages that it's often reversed from; if it reverses from here again and hits the bottom of the Potential Parallel Channel that will confirm the Validity of the Parallel Channel. If it breaks down from this Parallel Channel that will be a Bearflag breakdown that could take it down anywhere betwen the 1.618 to even the 2.618 which should signal a rally in the SPX. For the time being this is a speculative early entry.
She could squirt to 433 if she’s nasty. SPY Could see a push to 433 before the market unveils it’s surprise. Looking forward to seeing what kind of ride we’re in for.
Looks like it could crumble from this double top set up.
Anything could happen, might even buck to ATH if she’s catches up sleeping.
Cheers
UVXY all in potentialIt’s looking like we can trust the bottom side of this falling wedge. This time around It also lines up with the indexes double top so we could see a decent charge upwards.
I already own shares, and I’m picking up more on the open today. I’m looking to take profits in a few weeks based on previous bounces/timeframes.
Could be something to hold, although I would suggest taking your profits near the 5$ range (top of the wedge) and pick up more when it chops. Could pop higher but I wouldn’t bank on that, don’t be greedy here.
UVXY Ready for a run ;)Volatility is at all time low while also becoming oversold... We have a descending wedge which could break soon and this pattern is a favorite of mine. Targets have been laid out above. Not financial advice, DYOR.
UVXY Volatility Index ETFUVXY as shown in the 15 minute chart is slightly above the basis line on the Bollinger Bands
as shown also on the BB indicator or Luxalgo. Price is slightly below the mean VWAP of the
anchored VWAP situated in the fair value area as also confirmed by the volume profile and
its POC line confluent with the VWAP bands. Given impending federal data reports and news,
I expect volatility will rise. UVXY could have positive price action in the range of 10% in
tomorrow's trading day which can be day traded or scalped.
