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UVXY

For Your Eyes OnlyAs the majors drift sideways on Wednesday afternoon, after a bullish morning, Vix is at the LOD (18.16). When you look at Vix from the weekly timeframe, the trend is quite pronounced, and we're at solid multi-year support. It looks like things are going to get very wild, very soon, and from a macro perspective that makes perfect sense. I'm well positioned for anything that comes. As some of you know, my wife and I sold our condo in Toronto a few years ago in anticipation of a market top. We've cut our monthly expenses in half in the past year, and we're essentially debt free. One thing I refuse to be in the second half of my life, is a slave to the government or banking sector. I'm preparing for the worst, but hoping for the best, I guess that's all we can really do at this stage...
TVC:VIXLong
by Hedge_Of_The_World
10
Global Futures Extend Friday's Losses, Vix up 17%Here we go, folks! After an ugly opex on Friday which saw 30% of SPY, QQQ, IWM, and SPX options expire, leading to heavy selling across the board, futures are extending losses on Monday morning. As of 9AM, the S&P is down -1.21% to 4,266.12, the Dow is down -1.44% to 34,067, the Nasdaq is down -0.95% to 14,532, and the Russell is down -2.22% to 2,113. European and Asian markets are also taking it on the chin with the Dax down -2.62%, the CAC40 down -2.44%, the FTSE 100 down -2.13%, the Nikkei 225 down -1.28%, and the CSI 300 down -0.39%. It doesn't look like anyone can hide from the risk off theme today. As you can imagine, risk protection is in high demand with the Vix up 16.86% to 21.56. We're back at the 200DMA around 22, and we look poised to test trendline resistance around 24 as early as today on a break above the 200MA. Based on recent Vix price action after seeing solid support at the multi-year ascending trendline (around 15), we may be looking at the beginning of a larger repricing of risk off the back of higher than expected COVID infection rates last week, as well as growing inflation fears. Here's hoping logic works it's way back into the market going forward (finally). The US10Y yield is puking to 1.225% - we just lost the 200DMA at 1.275% and we're racing toward the 100MA (w), where the 50MA (w) is about to converge, around 1.20%. We should get support here, however, investors seem to be flocking into bonds as a safe haven against downside. The more shaky equity markets become, the more we may see yields crash, at least initially. Bitcoin is back at 30k support, but we're down over -3% on the day, and may be about to lose support, taking us toward 20k, which I believe is the 100MA (w). As risk is repriced, of course we'll see crypto sell off. It's only a matter of time before debt starts to pull flows away from assets, and those with the highest beta, and weakest value proposition, will be hit the hardest. Finally, the dollar (DXY) is retesting wedge resistance again for the 5th time in a month. We're sitting at 92.88 and we're fast approaching the March 2021 high's around 93.30 opening the gates to the upper band of the wedge around 95-96. Things are getting interesting so stay tuned for our live analysis at 9:30AM.
TVC:VIXLong
by Hedge_Of_The_World
4
$SPY Divergence; Its different this time!!??A little background on myself as this is my VERY FIRST EVER POST. Like most of us on here, I have tremendous goals in life and don't want to settle for "being average". I grew up below the middle class by a single mother of four kids that worked two full time jobs to provide for her kids and I couldn't afford university. I have worked in the oil patch in Alberta Canada along with a few well paying labor intensive jobs to earn more money to find the more I earned, the more taxes I paid and expenses I seemed to have incurred. Life felt like a trap and this was brought forth by my favorite author and someone I'd consider a mentor now; Robert Kiyosaki, approximately two years ago. I've taken it upon myself to educate about many subjects starting with banks and our monetary system over the past two years. (I wont get too in depth with this subject as it can be debated and go on, and on, and on) I was pleased to learn the Federal Reserve has nothing to do with the Federal Government and there is no reserves (who knew right!?)… Banks have fascinated myself as they hold the most of what I want. I've witnessed first hand ITS ALWAYS ABOUT THE MONEY many times over the past year, most recently with my wife and mother of our two kids - 11 months and three years old, battling breast cancer at the age of 32 years (about to go for her second round of chemotherapy) when she had to try a drug that makes her feel like crap and fail first because the other one that's substantially more affective with less side affects - costs more money. Much like most wealthy people (I don't consider myself wealthy. Yet). I want people to create an empire, and success stories get me excited! So, I've decided this is my first step in sharing something with the rest of you that have influenced many trading ideas and decisions over the past two years. I would appreciate any feedback or opinions on this because as I've learned; NEVER let your opinion put the blinders on or emotions get in the way of a trade. (this was my cost of education haha). THANK YOU TO EVERYONE THAT POSTS AND SHARES THEIR IDEAS - I have and will continue to learn from all of you at one point or another! NOW to the "MEAT AND POTATOS" The banks tops pre-Covid Crash - I'm calling this a crash because of how short lived losses were - December 23, 2019. 36 Trading days later we saw the S&P begin to take a bath. JPM, WFC, & BAC (the 3 largest banks in America) had a very visible divergence prior to this fall out creating lower highs as the S&P was making new highs which sounded an alarm in my head however I kept it to myself being newer to the markets and sold most positions sitting on what I had ready to buy the bottom. I didn't quite buy the bottom but definitely caught my sails in the winds on the way back up but that's besides the point. Here we are 360 trading days later banks have clearly put in new highs June 1st Since there is a clear divergence AGAIN in place between the big 3 and the S&P 500 JPM Earnings July 14th (tomorrow) - DOWN 1.40% TODAY WFC Earnings July 14th (tomorrow) - DOWN 1.90% TODAY BAC Earnings July 14th (tomorrow) - DOWN 1.45% TODAY 36 trading days from June 1st highs would lead me to July 23rd (also happens to be my bday - this would top any cake I've had) for the beginning of a potential correction! Time will tell but I will be watching how they react to earnings. If they make a lower high I will shuffle over to more of a bearish position and increase my hedge on call options in SH, UVXY, SPXU. New highs will indicate S&P has great potential to keep running! Both scenarios are still in play! Another little touch to leave yourselves with encouraging a proper hedge: ***Copied from yahoo finance data*** Top 8 Holdings in SH (51.55% of Total Assets) Name Symbol % Assets S&P 500 Index Swap Bank Of America Na N/A 11.03% S&P 500 Index Swap Bnp Paribas N/A 8.22% S&P 500 Index Swap Goldman Sachs International N/A 7.45% S&P 500 Index Swap Societe Generale N/A 6.74% S&P 500 Index Swap Ubs Ag N/A 6.34% S&P 500 Index Swap Citibank Na N/A 5.23% United States Treasury Bills N/A 3.37% S&P 500 Index Swap Credit Suisse International N/A 3.17% ***Copied from yahoo finance data*** Top 8 Holdings in SPXU (109.31% of Total Assets) Name Symbol % Assets S&P 500 Index Swap Credit Suisse International N/A 22.37% S&P 500 Index Swap Societe Generale N/A 20.03% S&P 500 Index Swap Ubs Ag N/A 18.23% S&P 500 Index Swap Goldman Sachs International N/A 14.18% S&P 500 Index Swap Bank Of America Na N/A 12.11% S&P 500 Index Swap Bnp Paribas N/A 11.10% S&P 500 Index Swap Citibank Na N/A 6.55% United States Treasury Bills N/A 4.74% Very similar trends in Canadian bank stocks if you care to take the time and compare TD, RY, BMO, BNS as well! Thank you all for reading and PLEASE share your thoughts on this!
AMEX:SPY
by stsoumpas
16
US Futures Slip After CPI Explodes 5.4% YoYUS Futures are trading marginally lower on Tuesday morning with the Dow down -0.16% to 34,821, the S&P down -0.21% to 4,369, the Russell down -0.37% to 2,268 and the Nasdaq down -0.4% to 14,865 as of 8:50AM. We saw June CPI come in extremely hot moments ago at 0.9% vs the 0.5% expected, while Core CPI also came in at 0.9% vs the 0.5% expected. We're talking YoY CPI of 5.4%, folks. Ouch! Good luck with the transitory narratve now DJ Powell. PepsiCo beat earnings estimates this morning and is up around 1.6% in pre-market trade, while JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs also released strong earnings which showed a slip in FICC and trading desk revenue for JP Morgan (but a beat on earnings), while Goldman reported their "second best quarter in history," according to ZeroHedge. The US10Y yield is down around -0.75% to 1.35%, and is falling fast after the hot CPI print as investors flee into USTs. The Dollar caught a strong bid - we're up around 0.25% and sitting at 92.47. Gold is trading relatively flat - we're up 0.6% to 1,807.4, while WTI rose 0.18% to 74.27. Vix is holding on to a 16 handle for dear life after a light rebound yesterday after Friday's massacre. Finally, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is down around -1.80% to 32,522, and looking incredibly bearish as we approach 30k support. This is playing out like a dead cat bounce which looks poised to resolve itself in the very near future. I may be a buyer of Bitcoin at the 20k level, depending on the state of the equity market, and of course, the policy outlook. Today should be a doozy after this morning's insane CPI print. Let's see how things shake up. Cheers, Michael. * I am/we are currently long HUV, UVXY.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
15
AMZN Coming Off Overbought LevelsAMZN is seeing some pressure here after hitting a new ATH yesterday. We're coming off overbought levels, and likely to see a retest of the recent range as early as today. We've seen strong support at the 200DMA (3,233), so a retest of this level is likely to result in a bounce back toward the upper band of the range. There's no question Amazon is overbought, and so with most risk assets at similar levels, the market is shaky at best, and the downside here is massive. Trade with caution, and manage your risk/reward...
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
2
US Futures Tank on Thursday, Vix Spikes 25%US Futures are tanking on Thursday after a rough overnight session saw the S&P fall back toward it's 21EMA around 4,269. As of 9AM the S&P is down -1.3% to 4,294, the Dow is down -1.3% to 34,124, the Nasdaq is down -1.32% to 14,607, and the Russell is down -1.85% to 2,207. The Russell is down around -4.28% on the week, and has lost critical MA supports, potentially leading to further downside toward the 200DMA around 2,053 as early as tomorrow. The Vix is up around 25% and is back at a 20 handle as we approach the open. Considering we're down less than -2% on the majors today, and we're seeing this type of bid for risk protection, things could get nuclear for Vix if we get a decent multi-percentage point correction today/tomorrow. The US10Y yield is puking again as inflation fears subside - we're down just over -2% and sitting at 1.29%. The Dollar (DXY) retreated -0.34% to 92.38 after another test of the wedge yesterday. With stocks puking, we should see a bid for cash today. Bitcoin is down just under -4% and sitting back at a 32k handle. We're approaching the 30k support once again in what is shaping up like a dead cat bounce. The next logical target if 30k goes, is 20k. I know the Bitcoin perma bulls hate this prediction, but like all risk assets, when the tap stops, the party is over. Gold is seeing a nice bid here, though, we're up around 0.78% on the day, and sitting at 1,815.9. Lastly, we saw jobless claims this morning come in at 373k vs the 350k expected, while continuing claims fell to 3.339MM vs the prior print of 3.48MM. Funny how when the pandemic claims end, the jobless claims fall... Our live analysis begins at 9:30AM. * I am/we are currently long HUV, UVXY
TVC:VIXLong
by Hedge_Of_The_World
2
Volatility - VIX Wyckoff AccumulationIdea for VIX: - VIX finally has touched pre-COVID levels. The debt and margin fueled recovery is complete. - Markets hitting ATH's every day (nearly a record for days in a row). - Yet every warning is flashing, market components are down, yet indices grind up on low volume. - Liquidity is flowing out, tapering has already begun, global credit impulse is negative, and market breadth is collapsing. - We are in the greatest asset bubble in history, and underlying conditions point to the greatest crash in history. - The crash has been telegraphed. In hindsight, it will be unanimously agreed upon that it was obvious. They will wonder how anyone could have been bullish here. - Such is the nature of the rally that a significant drop would create a bid-less market and mass liquidations. - Operators like to bid up a market to sell into (creating blow-off tops), and vice versa, to shake out retail and make sure the market will absorb their entire order. It is all being set up for a great flush. Classic accumulation pattern. Bubbles make their greatest gains at their end. Speculate the trigger by mid July. "Be fearful when others are greedy" - Warren Buffett GLHF - DPT
TVC:VIXLong
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
BEAST MODEVol has awoken. I repeat. Vol has awoken. Bears UNITE! 1 min chart shows clear bottoming pattern, plus impulsive price action to the upside. I'm seeing impulsive fractals meaning 1-2 1-2 With all the new supply of dead bulls in the future, we'll have to turn them into hamburger or something. How does bankrupt hamburger taste? Would you like some forbearance on the side? You're from America? Oh don't worry about the bill! They never pay it off anyways! Here just put it on the Fed's tab. You take Fed credit here?.... Well....that's all I have...? Well how am I supposed to pay for things if you won't accept my make believe credit that someone printed on a screen??!! This is unacceptable. Everyone is supposed to accept my meaningless, make-believe credit!! Well if you don't I'll....I'll....say you have weapons of mass destruction and invade your country!! Yeah that'll show em. (Not financial advice. Just a bear living it up.)
CBOE:UVXYLong
by MonetaryRebel
1
US Futures Drift Sideways Near ATH'sUS Futures are trading sideways on Tuesday morning - we're sitting near the ATH's, and showing no signs of letting up. The bears have vanished again at the opportune time for bulls, setting us up for further upside this week off the back of nothing but relentless and persistent fiat debasement by central banks, along with the corporate buy-back ponzi. We're entering Q2 earnings season, and so we'll have ample opportunity to dissect the performance of the broader market, to better understand where the flows ended up over the past quarter, and how market breadth is shaping up at the end of this secular expansionary cycle. As of 9AM the S&P was trading flat at 4,342.50, the Dow was down -0.6% to 34,655, the Nasdaq was up 0.20% to 14,743.50, and the Russell was up 0.16% to 2,305.70. The Dollar (DXY) slipped back to 92.30, while Gold recaptured an 1,800 handle (1,813.20), sitting up around 1.68% in pre-market trade. WTI rallied around 0.86% to 75.81, and Vix recaptured a 15 handle (15.80), after hitting a low of 14.25 on Friday. According to ZeroHedge, we've seen 7 consecutive days of new ATH's on the S&P, and considering we're seeing data that is not conducive of maintaining loose monetary policy, the Fed is boxed into a corner. Imo this entire rally since the March 2020 lows has been a complete fraud. If you look at the "rebound" with M1 in mind, we haven't rebounded at all. What has seemingly happened is a secret and aggressive devaluation of fiat across the G20, so the working class is none the wiser. Let's see what happens next... Our live Analysis begins at 9:30AM. * Iam/we are currently long HUV, UVXY
TVC:VIXLong
by Hedge_Of_The_World
9
US Futures Drift Lower Ahead of Final Day of Q2/H1US Futures are drifting lower on Wednesday morning after the MBA Mortgage Applications Index sank -6.9% and the ADP Employment Change came in at 692k vs the 400k expected. This sets us up for a potentially strong payrolls print on Friday, which at this point may lead to a risk off move on the assumption of tighter monetary policy as a response. According to ZeroHedge, the S&P has risen a whopping 14% in the first half of the year, it's best performance going back to 1998. Let's hope quarter end rebalancing flows don't ruin the party for everyone. We'll see Chicago PMI at 9:45AM, Pending Home Sales (for May) at 10:00AM, and EIA Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30AM. As of 9:00AM, the S&P was down -0.7% to 4,279, the Dow was down -0.9% to 34,138, the Nasdaq was down -0.2% to 14,561, and the Russell was down -0.31% to 2,297. The US10Y yield was slightly lower, down around -0.81% to 1.46%, while the Dollar (DXY) rose marginally by 0.11% to 92.17. Vix rose 4.49% to 16.74, while Gold continued to sink, down -0.31% to 1,758/oz. Bitcoin has resumed it's journey lower after a nice bounce back toward 36k yesterday. We're down -3.8% on the day and trading at 34,543. Stay tuned for our live analysis at 9:30AM. Cheers, Michael.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
2
US Futures Hover Near ATH's as Banks Crush Stress TestsUS Futures are trading at or near their ATH's ahead of Tuesday's cash open with the S&P flat at 4,281, the Dow up 0.27% to 34,258, the Russell up 0.22% to 2,321, and the Nasdaq down -0.16% to 14,490 as of 8:30AM. The US dollar (DXY) is gaining some ground and is up around 0.30% on the day to 92.16, while the US10Y yield traded around 1.50% after recovering from a light dip yesterday. Bitcoin is up around 4% on the day to 35,895, while Gold is down -0.70% to $1,768/oz. USOIL is up 0.70% to 73.28, and is on track to grind higher as inflation takes hold. The Vix slipped back to a 15 handle yesterday and is extending losses this morning - we're down around -0.57% and trading at 15.67. After passing the Fed's stress tests yesterday which showed that banks are firmly above the Fed's caopital minimum's (how could they not be when they're giving the Fed back their capital via the RRP every night), Financials are seeing some notable strength this morning with Morgan Stanley up over 3% in pre-market trade after pledging to double it's dividend. According to Bloomberg, the top six banks have agreed "return" a whopping $142 Billion to shareholders. Looking at the day ahead, we should see the FHFA Shousing Price Index along with the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price index at 9:00AM, followed by consumer confidence at 10:00AM. I suspect the banks will need to liquidate some capital in order to dole out all this cash to shareholders, so keep an eye out for potentially aggressive quarter end rebalancing flows today and tomorrow. Our live analysis begins at 9:30AM! Cheers, Michael.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Hedge_Of_The_World
8
Markets Flat on Monday as we Approach the End of Q2US Futures traded relatively flat on Monday morning, and are sitting near ATH's to start the week. The Dow is down -0.7% to 34,308, the S&P up 0.9% to 4,276, the Nasdaq up 0.32% to 14,384, and the Russell down -0.11% to 2,329.50 as of 9AM. It's insane to me to watch quantitative hedge funds underperforming retail traders, while asset valuations becomes more and more stretched due to mindblowing liquidity from central banks, corporate buy-backs, and persistent and obsessive jawboning of markets by policy makers. It's as though they're allergic to price discovery, or maybe it's just logic? The Dollar (DXY) is holding steady just under a 92 handle, while the US10Y yield continues to drift lower. We're holding on to 1.50% at the moment but we've been stuck in a persistent downtrend since the end of March. Bitcoin tested a 35k handle in the overnight session but has since slipped back to 34,382 with about 30 minutes to the cash open. I feel for the crypto permabulls who will be left holding an empty bag when this ponzi comes crashing down, but anyone who looks at secular cycles will see that inflation, and as a result, rates, are about to skyrocket. When this market eventually reprices, it's going to be vicious. Vix is sitting at 16.12 after testing long term trendline support, and looks poised for a major spike in the near term on a way overdue correction across the asset classes. With valuations going essentially parabolic, money managers are starting to worry about the implications of inflation on an already struggling global economy. The central banks are stealing wealth from the working class, and liberal governments all over the globe are cheering on the fiat debasement, while their loyal voters foot the bill, and beg for more. The feeling of cognitive dissonance has to be infecting policy makers minds by now, as they single handedly destroy capitalism. When price means nothing and supply and demand are controlled by policy makers, it's no longer a market, folks. Let's see how the week shapes up as we approach the final trading days of Q2. Stay tuned for our live analysis starting at 9:30AM. Cheers, Michael.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
4