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UVXY

Volatility - Nothing New Under The SunIdea for Volatility: - Wyckoff Cycle Mapped. - Wave Frequencies synced. - Cause and Effect determined. - Greater Cycle: - Bonds Volatility looks ready: - China Credit Impulse turns negative, consequently the global credit impulse turns negative. - Liquidity Flow: Credit > Bonds/Currencies > Commodities > Stocks. Fighting the Fed: - Reading the Curve: - Data Suppression: - Volatility Suppression: - DXY is in a rising Trend: - Decision point for the Dollar: - Dollar is goosed, but Yen seems to be telling, as the Yen is seen as a haven currency and AUD is correlated to inflation: - Yuan is very telling for the global economy: - Bond yields (CN & US) are telling: - Forecast suggests a Volatility spike this summer. - It is likely that a greater explosion in Volatility will follow... speculating the date to be September Quad Witching 2022 (September 16, 2022). It's Black Swan season... Look out for them, but they are never the cause. It is all about the Credit Cycle. GLHF - DPT
TVC:VIXLong
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
SPY at Critical Risk Off Gamma ZoneAccording to Spot Gamma, below 4,200 on the S&P is risk off. Let's see if the bulls can recover and get us back above this critical level, or if the bears hammer us lower and take advantage of the BTFD volume. We're sitting just above trendline support (in green), and MA supports just below (21EMA and 50DMA). If we see any real risk off moves today or tomorrow on Quad-witch, this light volatility could spiral into a full blown correction. It's about time...
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
12
US Futures Drift Near Overnight Lows, Jobless Claims SpikeUS Futures are hovering near yesterday's lows after a shaky start to the overnight session saw us reverse the Powell driven buying spree that started around 2:45PM when he said to take the dot plot with a "pinch of salt." Powell is now essentially saying that the Fed doesn't know what it's doing, so don't really listen to what the members think. I mean, this guy is a complete idiot imo. After rallying to erase essentially all of the afternoon losses, futures tanked shortly after the close, and we tested new session lows, to then drift marginally higher. As of Thursday morning at 9AM the S&P was trading down -0.31% to 4,200, the Dow was down -0.23% to 33,828, with the Nasdaq down -0.38% to 13,918, and the Russell down -0.32% to 2,302.60. The Vix rose 2.5% to 18.61, while the dollar continued it's spectacular bounce to 91.81, up 0.46%. The US10Y yield also rallied hard after the FOMC minutes - but we're cooling lightly here before the open and sitting at 1.557%. Gold is crashing and is down over 4% on the day. We're sitting at 1,785 and losing the 100DMA at 1,797. We're back in the descending channel, and looking at further downside as we approach the end of the trading week. Oil continues to rise, and is sitting just below a 72 handle, up 0.39% on the day. Lastly, we saw jobless claims come in higher than expected moments ago. Initial claims rose to 412k vs the 350k expected, while continuing claims remained flat at 3.518MM (3.517 prior). Needless to say, investors are finally considering the fact that the cost of servicing debt is going to rise soon putting pressure on (debt fueled) asset prices, and in short order (by June 26th), roughly 1.5 million Americans will lose unemployment benefits. In September, apparently another 9 Million or so will lose benefits. Stagflation here we come... Our live analysis begins at 9:30AM. * I am/we are currently long HUV, UVXY
TVC:DXYLong
by Hedge_Of_The_World
12
VXX finally getting ready to rumble?VXX has been very consistent in its following trend lines and over the last week it has dipped below its major support line. The news from the Fed today has clearly started some level of pull back in the markets (DJI has been showing that for a week). Now will this just be a side ways move or something more substantial? The markets has defied all odds so far so it may be good to wait for confirmation, but if you are a risk taker maybe something to consider. 4h 4h close up 2h
CBOE:VXX
by Dr_Roboto
Vix Weekly RSI Lowest in Almost 8 Years?The Vix recently caught a bounce off one of the lowest weekly RSI prints since 2013. We've seen support each time the Vix hit a weekly RSI of 41, and so Vix may finally be on the verge of a notable spike soon, which leads me to believe that the Fed may surprise markets today by being more hawkish than expected, or opex (quad-witch) on Friday may be a disaster for risk. Either way, I think the worse could be over for Vix, at least for a brief period of time. Let's see what happens this afternoon when we get the Fed minutes...
TVC:VIX
by Hedge_Of_The_World
2
ABNB: Retest of 21EMA, Then a Rally to the 50DMA?ABNB lost some steam yesterday after testing a 153 handle. We saw some light inflows today at the open, which have now been erased, but we look poised to test the 50DMA sitting around 156.36. We also have room to run toward the upper band of the triangle around 160 if the 50DMA is captured, where we should see strong resistance and possibly a continuation of the recent (persistent) downtrend. A break above the upper band resistance would see us breakout and a new uptrend would form. The major headwind here is sentiment around growth. If the Fed comes off even remotely hawkish, growth is going to tank...
NASDAQ:ABNB
by Hedge_Of_The_World
FB: Potential Upside to 360?FB is channeling up nicely and showing potential upside to 360 where the upper band of the channel is sitting as of today, which would imply a new ATH, of course. We have downside to around 300 where we should see notable support. If we lose 300, we still have channel support currently sitting around 285. This is a pretty persistent trend, so I don't expect much deviation outside of a shift in sentiment, which of course could be brought on by a number of factors, not the least of which is logic...
NASDAQ:META
by Hedge_Of_The_World
VOLATILITY B WAVENew all-time highs in the market combined with a creeping VIX are cause for some alarm. Inflation hedges/bets seems to be the talk of late with inflation on the rise.. and this is not unwise considering that money supply is off the chart and velocity is sure to pick up... although velocity is not a necessary component of inflation. Remember that the market is forward looking and when something becomes obvious to you, you are are usually late to that fact. I believe volatility is bottoming in this range and is very likely to start the B wave of a larger wedge. I had expected this to begin sooner. If this is indeed a new, larger wedge, then perhaps it's even bigger than I anticipated. I also believe the market is quite a ways off from any major crash like we had in March of 2020...perhaps years out. But that does not mean we will not have sharp drops with periods of volatility.. I tend to think we are nearing that now. Be on the lookout for market noise and flush-outs. There are likely to be some decent buying opportunities made available in many stocks soon. Hold fast.
TVC:VIXLong
by gghsusa
4
Futures Rise as Retail Traders Shrug Off Hottest CPI Since 1992Happy Friday folks! Let's get right into it today. US Futures traded relatively flat in the overnight session with the Dow down -0.12% to 34,420, the S&P down -0.11% to 4,233, the Russell up 0.29% to 2,315, and the Nasdaq up 0.07% to 13,969 as of 8:30AM. Yesterday's PA came as a bit of a surprise to trading desks across the Capital Markets, as the typical reaction to red hot inflation is a more hawkish shift in policy and an increase in the cost of servicing debt, pulling a significant amount of flows away from growth heavy indexes such as the Russell and Nasdaq, leading to more defensive positioning at the very least. However, sans the light selling on the Russell, what we saw was next to no fear at all, or demand for risk protection for that matter. Markets and particularly market signals are completely broken right now it would appear, as Billionaire Stan Druckenmiller rightly pointed out shortly after the red hot data. The best performing trading strategy over the past year has been buy and hold. So in other words, doing absolutely nothing but remaining as risk on as possible, this entire time, which many, if not most, retail traders have done, has outperformed hedge funds by 10 to 1. In my honest opinion, this is no longer a "market," far less an efficient or free market. The US10Y yield continued to fall as bond markets bought the Fed narrative of transitory inflation, and almost completely ignored Thursday's highest CPI print since 1992. The Dollar (DXY) rose 0.32% to 90.35 showing potential signs of derisking in growth, while Vix slipped back to a 15 handle, and is sitting at the lowest level since before the March 2020 lockdown crashed markets 35%. Gold is sitting just below 1,900 around 1,890 and is down -0.30% on the day, while Bitcoin (BTCUSD) rose 1.38% to 37,215. Finally, USOIL rose 0.11% to 70.16. * I am/we are currently long HUV, UVXY
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Hedge_Of_The_World
9
calls on the VXX Betting on a spike in the vix tomorrow after the CPI number comes in hot. Too many signs of inflation to ignore, there's no way the CPI comes in softly. I think the markets will have a slight reaction which should spike the "fear index" for a brief period of time, long enough to sell the calls in-the-money Strategy to profit from this possibility: VXX expiration June 11th $33 strike calls (ITM) VXX expiration June 11th $34 strike calls (OTM) Vix spikes are usually short-lived and this is playing off a specific catalyst, specifically, the CPI being reported at 8:30 am June 10th.
CBOE:VXX
by EBITDAtiger
Futures Sink as Russia's SWF Ditches the DollarGlobal futures are experiencing some weakness this morning after yesterday's rollercoaster ride saw us rise persistently in the morning session, only to be hammered from noon until around 2PM, to then be panic bid into the close once again. The Dow is trading down -0.51% to 34,412, the S&P is down -0.62% to 4,180.38, the Nasdaq is down -0.88% to 13,553, and the Russell is down -0.81% to 2,278.25. Headlines are circling the financial media this morning after Russia released a statement that they'll be cutting the dollar from their sovereign wealth fund, replacing it with other core SDR fiats (Euro, Yuan), as well as gold. Vix is seeing a notable bid off the week's low's and is back at 18.8 resistance and up just under 12% on the day. We need to recapture the 21 level for another potential test of the descending trendline around 28. The Dollar (DXY) has recaptured 90 support, and is currently sitting at 90.24 as of 9AM. Clearly we're seeing liquidation across asset classes. But, the dollar gains never stick for long these days. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is up over 4% on the day and sitting just under 40,000, while Gold is off the recent high's and trading back at 1,881. No major moves in the bond market to speak of as the US10Y yield drifts sideways at 1.60%. As far as memes go, AMC is tanking back to a 59 handle after hitting a high of 72.62 yesterday. Holy shit, we closed up 95% on the day. I've never seen anything like it. The company is a hollow zombie with too much debt on the books. Cinemas are closed, and who knows what their future revenue will look like. But, that doesn't stop the army of retail traders who are throwing every dollar they can at the highest beta stocks they can find. GME had a nice breakout of the triangle a couple weeks ago, and is up 27% on the week. We could be looking at a similar scenario to AMC unfolding, which potentially provides an opportunity to short these pieces of garbage back to unch at the first sign of a shift in sentiment. Economic Data: Finally, Jobless claims came in at 385k vs the 395k expected, and continuing claims rose to 3.771MM vs the 3.642MM expected. The ADP employment change rose by 978k vs the 675k expected, however the real headline here is that over 15 Million American's are still on some form of government employment benefits. We'll see the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for May at 10AM, and Crude Inventories at 11AM. Our live anaysis begins at 9:30AM. * I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
2