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UVXY

Towers Reaching For The HeavensIdea for Macro: - Inflation? Deflation? Both exist. - The bottom line is that there is deflation in demand. The price of Oil/CPI is on a clear decline. - The Fed and Central Banks do not control economic inflation and deflation, only asset inflation. - Inflation exists in assets, as made clear by the parabolic prices of nearly every asset class. - The USA is the world's largest debtor nation, and their debt is increasing at a parabolic rate. - The US cannot endure deflation. This is why the Fed and Biden administration goes to such extreme measures to engineer asset inflation, in hopes of negating economic deflation. - Reflexivity states that when prices deviate too far from objective, underlying fundamentals, prices will reverse to converge back toward equilibrium. - The breaking point is likely not to be either inflation nor deflation. The Black Swan is most likely to be in the implicit short volatility bubble. The world is short volatility in explicit and implicit positions. At any point, reflexivity can crash this bubble in an onslaught of volatility, leading to the unravelling of the monstrous $2.4 quadrillion derivatives bubble. - We have seen the 'Six Sigma event' in the GME short squeeze.... If you see a 'Six Sigma event' in the market, it's not a 'Six Sigma event'. - Hedge fund liquidations and near crises are appearing from the smallest events of volatility. The short volatility trade has been normalized, and institutional investors are incredibly leveraged. - Now the whole world has one language and a common speech: "Buy the Dip". - Tesla and Bitcoin's previous high marked peak euphoria, and the point of maximum financial risk. The current bounce is simply complacency. When the market is in complacency, anxiety will come next. - QE Tapering has already begun. - The tidal wave of volatility to come will be mythical. - The time has come. GLHF - DPT When He broke the third seal, I heard the third living creature saying, "Come." I looked, and behold, a black horse; and he who sat on it had a pair of scales in his hand. And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, "A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; but do not damage the oil and the wine." - Revelation 6:5-6 And on every lofty mountain and every high hill there will be brooks running with water, in the day of the great slaughter, when the towers fall. - Isaiah 30:25
TVC:USOIL
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
QE, Buy-Backs, BTFD, and Fed Rhetoric Save MarketsHey guys, I hope everyone had a nice relaxing weekend. After a freakish drift higher on the US majors yesterday toward the ATH's, and off the back of a week straight of buy-backs, QE, and dip buying, the SPY is back at the lower band of the ascending green channel (resistance) around 420. Of course, we can't not mention the FED members parading around every day, spreading more transitory-inflation rhetoric to boost sentiment and cool yields. On SPY, we recently saw 2 tests of the 50DMA, first on May 12th, and then again on May 19th. But, we saw strong support, just as we have in the recent past. I expect a rejection at this level, similar to the rejection we saw on May 14th at outside channel resistance. We have initial downside to the 21EMA at 414.25, and then, of course, a retest of the 50DMA is likely this week around 408.50. On the Nasdaq (QQQ), we're sitting at 334 pre market as of 9AM, and likely to retest the high from Feb 16th around 338 before getting a rejection. The momentum is to the upside as the 21EMA, 50DMA, and 100DMA has been recaptured. The Russell (IWM) is sitting just at the 21EMA around 221, with the 50DMA just above us at 222.34, and the 100DMA just below around 219, and the Dow (DIA) is sitting at the top of it's recent range, and within a couple percentage points of the ATH. Gold has been levitating just above the 200DMA after the recent dollar puke, and spike in bonds, while Bitcoin (BTCUSD) recovered slightly to a 37k handle after the insane 54% crash that we all knew was coming. WTI (USOIL) is sitting around 66 and showing resilience as FED burns the dollar back to an 89 handle. The Vix is sitting at 18.2 after retesting the descending trendline we broke through on May 11th. We hit a low of 16.9 this morning around 7AM, but are poised to recapture the white ascending trendline around 18.6, with 18.8 resistance back in play. Finally, the US10Y yield is being sold off as the FED down plays inflation as transitory, and although the cup and handle formation is still potentially going to materialize, based on previous tests of long term resistance, it may be several weeks before we see a breakout. I just want to say thanks again for everyone's patience last week as I took some time off, it was a rough week. My cat Franco was in and out of the vet, and had his final surgery which went well, thankfully. Then my dog Pompey died. When it rains it pours I guess, but he was 18 years old, and had a great life, so I'm finally smiling now when I think of him instead of crying. Time to get back on track. :) Our live analysis begins at 9:30AM. Cheers, Michael.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
9
Volatility - The Temple of King SolomonIdea for VIX: - The Short Volatility Bubble will pop. - Transmutation of Risk cannot make Volatility disappear, only hide it. - There is an estimated $2+ trillion global short stock market volatility bubble. - Explicit Short Vol: $60 bn (pension overwriting, VIX, vol selling funds) - Implicit Short Vol: $1.4 tn (Risk Parity, Var Control, Risk Premia, CTAs) - Share buybacks: $3.8 tn since 2009. (1) When the world is short, go long. GLHF - DPT Reference: (1) "Volatility and the Alchemy of Risk", Artemis Capital Management
TVC:VIXLong
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
2
3 Strikes, NDX is OUT!!!The Nasdaq was up to bat, but 3 strikes and you're out. Look at the RSI. Higher lows on the momentum going back to 2018!!! = bullish, meanwhile price has been going down. This indicates a buildup of momentum that has not been discovered by the price yet. I'm putting my money on the fact that that momentum will be discovered here soon in a real way. 2018 guys. Think of that. We all know it's inflated. Everyone is just betting when the music is going to stop. Doesn't matter who you are. This thing is going to at least $15, but I'm shooting for a bit higher for at least $35-40 cause I think this could get bad. Could be one of the most Asymmetric trades this year.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by MonetaryRebel
8
Comparative Analysis Hints at Imminent Major Volatility IncreasePlease look at the picture below instead of the interactive chart, if the trend lines are not shown in the upper chart. This relates to the major indices, including CURRENCYCOM:US30 , TVC:SPX , and CURRENCYCOM:US100 . Here, I am focusing my analysis on Nasdaq100 (US100) given that it's the most volatile with the clearest price changes. For each of the past 3 major volatility events, the volatility started to increase with the price passing lower to the trend line. Yet, it didn't happen this time. Naturally, falling below a trend support should be a bearish signal, which usually triggers high volatility; however, for last year the market was fast upwards in an unprecedented way due to its reaction to the COVID19 crisis. The bullish run was slowed down by the correction last summer, which didn't trigger high volatility since the compensating trend was still faster than before. This time, it is different. Nasdaq100 has just started falling below the compensating trend and would probably find support in the pre-COVID19 trend. That is already triggering high volatility which would increase due to the fears of a crash and since many stocks are still over valued. I don't expect COVID19 levels, but I expect the value here to rise to the 30s in the very near future.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by MontyMacht
2
Jobless Claims Fall, PPI Crushes ExpectationsUS Futures traded mostly sideways in the overnight session, with the S&P briefly testing a low of 4,029.38, before recapturing the 50DMA. We're currently sitting just above the 50DMa around 4,072.38 as of 9AM. We saw jobless claims come in at 473k vs the 510k expected, while continuing claims came in at 3.655MM. Don't be fooled by these numbers though, we're still seeing over 16MM Americans on some form of income benefits, and a significant portion of labour costs are being subsidized by the government. How long this can last with inflation soaring, is anyone's guess. PPI came in hot at 0.6% in April vs the 0.3% expected, while Core PPI rose 0.7% vs the 0.4% expected. YoY, PPI rose a whopping 6.2%, much higher than the 5.8% expected, and the highest YoY rise ever. The US10Y yield cooled slightly after yesterday's high of 1.705%, and is sitting just below cup and handle resistance at 1.686%. We're up around 6% on the week, and poised for a massive breakout if we push beyond 1.77%, the previous high from March. The Vix blew up yesterday, rallying a whopping 30% before cooling to a 25 handle as of 9AM. We appear to be in the midst of a vicious reversal, as is usually the case when Vix spikes. However, the majors are still incredibly overvalued, historically so, and would need to see a 30% correction to match the levels seen in the dot com bubble. Needless to say, I'm holding my Vix longs, for big short 2.0. The Dollar (DXY) had a fantastic day yesterday as risk was fled for safe havens; even the flaming dollar. But saw some weakness after testing a high of 90.907 in the overnight session. We're likely going to see a test of the lower band of the wedge, around 91, before we see a solid rejection back to 90. Having said that, the dollar is likely going to see a bid at some point, when the Fed mentions the word no one on Main Street wants to hear, which is taper. Inflation will force the Fed's hand, and they won't have a choice but to reduce bond purchases, and raise rates, leading to a cascade of selling in debt support assets such as real estate, and growth. Finally, the Put/Call rose almost 20% yesterday, rising to the highest level since October, 2020 at 0.83. We're seeing a blatant shift in positioning in the equity options market, so hold on to your hats as the PPI data confirms that inflation is rampant, and potentially at the stage where it can do significant damage to Main Street. * I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
12
UVXY: UpdateBears are out to play, seems the winter is over. I'm not looking to dump my position in UVXY just yet, however. I thought I might update the community that Business wire reported that Proshares plans on doing a 1:10 reverse split on May 26th before opening bell that day for their UVXY security. Trade accordingly. I expected a reverse split once it touched the 3's, but with its sharp spike this week I am a little surprised by the announcement and wonder if it will hold tbh. Not advice, not recommendation.
CBOE:UVXY
by deadsquare214
6
Global Futures Extend Losses, CPI ExplodesTaiwan's Stock Exchange Index just saw it's biggest market crash in 54 years according to ZeroHedge, falling 9%. Needless to say margin levels are at historic high's, so the bleeding has only now begun as potentially ugly margin calls commence. US CPI data came in (extremely) hot moments ago. We saw a rise of 4.2% YoY after CPI rose by 0.8% in April vs the 0.2% expected. This was the biggest YoY jump since September 2008, and the biggest MoM jump since June 2008. Core CPI rose 3% YoY, with a MoM rise of 0.92%, the largest MoM rise since 1981. Transitory though, right Powell? What a crock of shit. The US10Y yield is approaching 1.65%, and we're possibly looking at a cup and handle, with a vicious breakout soon, sending stocks spiraling at the worst possible time. We saw the dollar rally hard (0.30%) to 90.41, catching support at the February low around 90. The Vix hit an HOD of 23.9 moments ago, before cooling back to 23 as of 9AM. We've clearly broken out of the descending trendline formed from the March top, putting our target of 30 in play this week. A retest of the 21 support level is possible, but unlikely given this morning's negative sentiment after the ugly CPI print. QQQ is set to open below the 100DMA which was recaptured yesterday before we saw a rejection at the 50DMA. SPY is set to open at the red line support around 411, with the 50DMA potentially coming into play as early as today at 403.62. IWM is also poised to open below the 100DMA, which was recaptured yesterday before the close, bringing the March 25th low around 208 into play. The 200DMA is sitting all the way down at 190, so hold on to your hats if we see an ugly open like we did yesterday. Growth in particular is going to suffer today, with value likely seeing a BTFD parade. Later on around 10:30AM we'll see Crude Inventories, then around 2PM we'll see the latest Treasury Budget balance. * I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
17
Payrolls Disaster Proves the Ponzi Isn't Working, Fed StuckWe had a very interesting day of PA on Thursday after jobless claims rose by 498k vs the 530k expected. Continuing claims sit at 3.69MM, rising by approx. 400k vs last week's print. According to ZeroHedge, we still have over 16MM Americans on some form of income benefits, so of course, take any jobless claims print with a pinch of salt. Remember, the government is essentially subsidizing labour costs for businesses, while stimulating demand, and when this eventually ends, all of those zombie companies that are contributing to this fake rebound, will perish. Looking at the day ahead, we just saw the much anticipated April Payrolls report which was whispered to be in the range of a whopping 2MM. However, the report was a complete shock to Wall Street with a measly 266k jobs being added to Nonfarm Payrolls, and 218k added to Nonfarm Private Payrolls. The Unemployment rate rose to 6.1% from 5.8%, showing a deterioration in the labour market in April. The average work week rose from to 35 hours, from 34.9. Someone call the Fed, we're gonna need more free money! US Futures rose broadly overnight after a rollercoaster ride yesterday saw every sell program be met with a relentless short squeeze. According to Goldman Sachs, Hedge Funds have been shorting the Nasdaq for the past couple weeks, and so, what we saw yesterday, is potentially profit taking flows from these funds. However, after the ugly payrolls miss moments ago, global markets are experiencing some volatility, with the Dow down 0.06% to 34,422, the S&P up 0.37% to 4,209.62, the Nasdaq up 1.4% to 13,780.38, and the Russell down 0.11% to 2,236.35. In Europe, the Dax is up by 0.58% to 15,345.50, the FTSE 100 is up 0.20% to 7,085, and the SMI is down 0.15% to 11,115. In Asia, The Nikkei 225 is down 0.06% to 29,328, the Hang Seng is up 0.66% to 28,596, the CSI 300 is down by 1.24% to 4,992.60, and the Nifty 50 is up 1% to 14,930. The rotation into growth is now back, with the Nasdaq being heavily bid, while small caps puke. Clearly the talk of tapering has simmered notably after the obvious weakness in the labour market. It's another win for the speculators, as they assume the Fed now has no choice but to continue to support their risk appetite. The Vix is sitting at 18.1, showing resilience after yesterday's short squeeze into the close. We're still channeling up, and are sitting just below daily resistance at 18.80. We'll be looking for a breakout above 21, for confirmation of a larger move ahead, and are positioned for bearish PA into the close, and next week. The US10Y yield is puking, and is back to 1.51% after losing the 50DMA earlier on in the week. We have downside to 1.35% where the 100DMA is sitting. Needless to say, the knee jerk reaction to flock into bonds is warranted after the ugly payrolls report, and interestingly the dollar is puking after the report to 90.45, which could lead us to believe that the Fed's debasement scheme has spooked dollar bulls. Should be a doozy of an open, so stay tuned. * I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
37
Throw Back to 10 Things I Hate About YouGiven the morning's PA, I feel like it's time for a throw-back to one of my old posts. Some of you might remember this one: Dear Mr. Market, 1. I hate the way you always seem to rise, even when you're supposed to fall. 2. I hate the way you make me scratch my head, when price action makes no sense at all. 3. I hate the way you brand me a contrarian, even though we all know the real economy is dead. 4. I hate the fact that you only seem to move, off of sentiment from the FED. 5. I hate that you give me road rage, when pushing my shopping cart at the grocery store. 6. I hate that you no longer care about fundamentals, and now you've made technicals a bore. 7. I hate the way that price action now controls sentiment, and not the other way around. 8. I hate when you squeeze me out of my short, even when support clearly hasn't been found. 9. I hate your stubborn attitude, when all the facts that are stacked against you stand tall. 10. But, most of all, Mr. Market, I hate the way I don't hate you, not even a little, not even at all. Yours Truly, The Bears
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
14