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Yellen Walks Back Inflation Comments, Futures Rally"The Fed is boxed into a corner. Powell knows it. Yellen knows it. But give them props – they are putting on quite a show trying to assure us everything is fine to keep the markets calm. It reminds me a little bit of the orchestra playing as the Titanic sinks." - Michael Maharrey, SchiffGold.com. US & European Futures are broadly up on Wednesday as of 9AM, with Asia showing signs of light weakness. The Dow is up 0.32% to 34,126.50, with the S&P up 0.47% to 4,177.38, the Nasdaq up 0.78%, and the Russell up 0.60% to 2,258. In Europe, the Dax is up 1.10% to 15,118, the CAC 40 up 0.37% to 6,286, and the FTSE up 0.74% to 6,977. In Asia, the Nikkei 225 is down 0.33%, the Hang Seng is down 0.15%, the CSI 300 is down 0.82% to 5,109.80, and the Nifty 50 is essentially flat at 14,712.50. We saw relentless selling (particularly in growth) yesterday morning, but drifted higher all afternoon on buy-backs, and perpetual sell-side euphoria. Janet Yellen's remarks about rising rates (eventually) to cool an overheating economy, was the obvious catalyst for the sell off. However, later on in the day, she felt the need to walk back her simple, honest, and basic monetary policy comments. Essentially she said inflation won't be a big problem (repeating Powells mantra), and said she's not suggesting or forecasting rate hikes. Wow. Is the game is to ignore inflation until there's civil unrest about prices? These policy makers are straight up criminals imo. According to ZeroHedge, the Treasury was set to borrow $95 Billion in Q2, but that figure is now a whopping $463 Billion. In Q3, the estimated borrowing is $821 Billion. In other words, we're looking at exponential printing of GDP to keep up the appearance of a functioning economy. Let's see what they project for Q4. Maybe $1.2 Trillion? And, what about next year? I swear, it feels like we have children with no experience running the economy into the ground. Welcome to MMT hell, folks. Commodities continue to rise as inflation take hold, with Lumber up 4.5% to new high's at 1,481.50. Oil continues it's slow march higher with WTI up 1.31% to 66.47, and Brent up 1.23% to 69.73. Vix is down around 5% on the day and sitting at 18.53, just below our intraday support level of 18.80. We tested the 21 level resistance yesterday and saw a massive rejection as the afternoon melt up ensued. The Dollar (DXY) is essentially flat and trading at 91.28, near yesterday's highs. Let's see how the day unfolds. * I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
16
Behavioral Cycles of Systems - Urim and ThummimIdea for VIX: - The 2015 devaluation of the yuan was the tremor for this motive wave. - G20, IMF & BIS steadily move toward a new Bretton Woods agreement and OECD BEPS. - It is likely that the "Big One" will be EOY 2022, and interest rates will be raised in the US this year. GLHF, DPT Disclaimer: We absolutely do not provide financial advice in any shape or form. We do not recommend investing based on our opinions and strongly cautions that securities trading and investment involves high risk and that you can lose a lot of money. Loss of principal is possible. We do not recommend risking money you cannot afford to lose. We do not guarantee future performance nor accuracy in historical analyses. We are not registered investment advisors. Our ideas, opinions and statements are not a substitute for professional investment advice. We provide ideas containing impersonal market observations and our opinions. Our speculations may be used in preparation to form your own ideas. Credits to my mentor @Spotshooter1983 for the view.
TVC:VIXLong
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
2
UVXY looks due for a popGlitch and other UVXY longers might get an out soon, with possible profit even! The last few pops have been about $8 lower from each other at peak. So fibs looking about $7@1 & $8.68@1.68. That could just be the start if things get rolling, but not likely at the moment. It's concerning UVXY has dropped under $5 and no reverse split news. The flattening is indicating a pop, regardless of anything else. I have longs, including TQQQ, but this has been on the radar. Flattening under the bollinger band(cyan) is usually a decent indicator, but it hasn't popped in a long time. It's definitely due. I was looking towards the eviction moratorium news for a signal, but it may start prior to June 30th if it seems certain to be the last extension. September should see a larger correction to indices, but it remains to be seen.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by Drip_Drop
3
The Greatest Ponzi in HistoryUS Futures are doing what they always do these days, which is melt up overnight to new ATH's, while we all sleep. Buy the close, sell the open is still alive and well. The S&P500 hit a new ATH moments ago, at 4,207.62, before cooling slightly, which implies a breakout above the ascending channel we've been stuck in since November. I'll repeat that - the bulls just broke through a 6 month resistance trendline, like it was water. I'm sure Powell will get a nice bottle of 40 year Port from his friends on Wall Street, for his incredibly dovish, albeit shaky, performance, while the rest of us working class folk, get more stick. I must say, it was pretty insane hearing Powell dismiss any rise in inflation this year. In other words, no matter what happens to inflation, it's "transitory." What a crock of sh*t. The Nasdaq also caught a strong bid overnight, and is sitting within a few points (14,040) of the ATH (14,059). The Dow is up around 0.40%, and is forming a bulish Pennant on the daily time frame. This is interesting considering we're within about 300 points of the ATH. Are we about to see another short squeeze? Who is still short at this point, really? There may be a few of us left, but we're within the 95 percentile of long positioning in Equities, and the Put/Call is glued to the floor. Are they trying to hit the 99th percentile? WTF is the long term game plan here? The dollar's been debased upwards of 40% in a year, and still, central banks want more of our savings and wages. On the Russell, we're seeing a retest of the left shoulder high around 2,316, and we're up around 0.70% at the moment. If we see a retest of the ATH around 2,368, the HS formation crumbles like every other bearish pattern we've observed in the past 12 months. Having said that, both the Nasdaq, and the Russell, are potentially in a topping pattern. The double top thesis on the Nasdaq is still in play, and we'll need to see how the week shapes up before we potentially reassess our bearish outlook. The US10Y yield rose notably overnight, and retested a 1.65% handle before cooling slightly. Who would possibly want to hold long duration right now, when the Fed just promised to continue to buy everything under the sun to keep rates low, and prop up credit markets. The real yield is going deeper and deeper into negative, as inflation takes hold. However, The bond market may be on the verge of another wave of selling, putting pressure on growth (again). How long this lasts before the Fed steps in and changes the rules of the game again, is anyone's guess. In volatility, we're seeing the Vix back at a 17 handle after whipsawing back and forth yesterday off the back of Powell's garbage rhetoric. We saw persistent selling in risk protection, as markets drifted sideways for the past 2 weeks straight. MMT, QE, Buy-backs, Fed Put, you name it, they're pulling out every stop to keep markets propped up, to maintain the appearance of a functioning economy. But, the reality is far more grim than the data and valuations might suggest. If you divide any of the indexes by the increase in M1 Yoy, you'll see there hasn't been a rebound at all. There's just been immense asset inflation as a response to a blatant, multi-trillion dollar, debasement scheme, to tax the working class, and steal their savings to save zombie companies and states. The bottom 50% of people don't own any assets at all, and central banks know this. Hence, rising asset prices ,and goods and service prices, off the back of diluting the dollar, is literally a tax on the poorest 50% of people. On the subject of the burning dollar, we fell around 0.33% yesterday and we're sitting around 90.57 as of 7:45AM. We have support just below us around 90, near the Feb 25th low. If that breaks, the Jan low around 89.50 will come into play. If that goes, it's all over for the dollar. The daily RSI is currently sitting at 32, so we're technically in oversold territory and due for a near term bounce. I'm waiting to see if we lose the recent lower wedge support, around 91, on the weekly tine frame. That would confirm the lost support, and may potentially lead to further downside as early as next week. I'm looking at some potential long plays here, but I urge caution given current valuations, and rampant speculation across the asset classes. High beta, meme stocks, crypto, high yield, they're all bid first when Powell gives the green light. So, I'll be watching for technical breakouts on the most shorted stocks. I'm hoping this will be enough to offset further losses on my Vix positions, and my Nasdaq short. Let's see how jobless claims look this morning, and how the market responds to this new wave of Fed induced euphoria. Our real-time, daily market commentary and analysis begins at 9:30AM. We're now on Telegram, so you can enjoy our updates directly on any of your devices. Start your free 14-day trial today! *I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
8
Important Level For DXYHi all! I think we are facing a pivot for the DXY that could bring significant changes to global markets. IF the DXY doesn't Hold the 90 level and bounce higher, THEN I believe we are looking at new highs across the risk asset spectrum with the DXY going into tail spin and falling out of this macro down trend channel, possibly to the low 80's even. However, IF DXY does hold the 90 level and bounces with confidence, I believe it will be the sell signal and risk off signal across the risk asset spectrum. And of course, this could send DXY well above the down trend channel its been in. CPG's are planning on raising prices by an avg of 10% next few months so inflation is real regardless of what the market makers *cough cough* sorry I mean Fed chair persons think are going on in the economy. All my models had 10% inflation baked into them as an assumption back in Dec. '20, and subsequently they priced the SPY at 420. We keep getting close to it and seem to be floating there in a state of euphoria, no? Idk, but sounds like 420 to me haha. Hoping we have a correction to ease pressures on the system, but am worried about a crash tbh. I think risk is expensive and safety is worthless so buy insurance and go ham fam! My ideas are strictly my opinions and are not advice or recommendations. Please make every effort to understand all risks associated with investing or trading any security before purchase or sale. Not Financial advice. Not financial recommendation. Just my personal opinions. JG
TVC:DXYLong
by deadsquare214
8
UVXY 1D KISS Test Holding UVXY next 10 days could be the best or worst decision you've made in terms of hedging for volatility . Diamond Reversal Or Diamond Continuation H&S target $3. 01 or less. Otherwise diamond reversal should occur. 5 day MACD is bullish Just remember no one gets any awards for being the first to recognize a decent short op and take it. It's not going to manifest as quickly as you think to $10. However, it should recover to this by the latest March 2022. Short term target is $5.27 from previous analysis with $5.75 upside. If Head and Shoulders configuration plays out $3. 01 or less in May.
CBOE:UVXY
by TheCryptoChartWhisperer
14
Upside Worth the Risk? Hi, all! I think yes, for me. Things are tense globally, and prices are...well high. I think we have not yet seen the ATH on the SPY and subsequently I think the UVXY will get close to its ATL if not touch it and play around it a bit before we see a correction in the broad markets which should, IMHO, send this security soaring for a very nice risk/return profile. Things could get dicey any moment however. A reverse split could be on the near term horizon. And, the symmetrical triangle should be a bearish signal, yet given its very slight tilt to the downside and the bullish signal from the MACD. I think a reversal from the major downward trend we have seen is immanent. Nevertheless, I've been wrong many times before, and I can only be sure of one thing going forward, which is that I will be wrong again. Not advice. Not recommendation. Please comment below and share your thoughts. I'm down to dialogue about this momentum model bubble we seem to be in and how to play it with insurance or swing trading etc. Best wishes! JG
CBOE:UVXYLong
by deadsquare214
4
Driftwood for Breakfast AgainUS Futures continue to drift sideways in what is shaping up to be another mind numbing day of price action. The S&P literally hasn't moved more than a couple points since last Friday. European and Asian markets were broadly higher, and the Vix slid back to a 16 handle. It's so frustrating watching the same meaningless price action day after day. But, both Biden, and Powell, are set to speak today on critical matters of the economy, and market, potentially shaking things up for a change. Biden will be revealing more information on his new $1.8 Trillion plan to support (print) GDP. Mean while, the Fed's Powell, will be expected to address bond purchase tapering as early as Q4 2021 (which could send markets into a tail spin), as well as sky high asset price inflation (housing prices are rising 4 times the Fed's inflation target), which is now bleeding into goods and services, punishing the working class, while being masked as healthy inflation, and an economic rebound. It's horse sh*t, folks. The US Dollar rose slightly to a 91 handle revealing signs of weakness elsewhere. We look to commodities which are notably down across the board. Gold, Silver, Platinum, Lumber, Sugar, Soybean Oil, Corn, Wheat, and Oats, were the hardest hit, and down around 2-3% on average, with Lumber down a shopping 10%. BMO sees lumber crashing in the second half of the year, with an estimated correction to the tune of 61.8%, bringing the price to $415/mbf as we approach 2022. Crude was up around 1% with WTI sitting at 63.59, and Brent at 66.98. We're seeing the price of gas rise to recent high's once again, as global supply chains struggle to catch up with demand, and OPEC (Saudi) relentlessly price fixes oil to keep their profits rolling in. The blatant cuts in global supply chains, and the neverending synthetic demand created by printing GDP across global markets, is doing little but distort the economy, and prices, while making the working class poorer. Fiat is on fire, and it's all the bottom 45% of people in the US have. It's criminal. And it's all going essentially unnoticed by the majority of households. We may be witnessing the greatest ponzi in history, straight up dwarfing the response to the 2008 Great Recession. Trade accordingly. *I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
27
UVXY. P-Modeling Pt E. Binary Transmutation of DecayWelcome Hyperspace Travelers, This is my first public UVXY Macro Time-Series Analysis in a very long time. This ETF is going to change lives. Of course though, you are going to doubt every word spoken below. Because who would believe such nonsense?! I hear you mate. I here you. :) But let's talk and walk into the unknown for a moment. VIX is a First Order Derivative (FOD) UVXY is a Second Order Derivative (SOD). Pegged Derivatives MUST have a Function (^) Every (FOD) and (SOD) must be pegged to a 'mother analog'. In this case that would be the { S&P 500 Index }. The (FOD) and (SOD) are (^)'s of Volatility within the S&P 500 Index. UVXY being a derivative of a derivative means these step cycles are intricately woven in the data pool using simple Standard Deviation topography that are noise free. Decay is step-cycled compression based on 30-day rolling contract averages of the First Order Derivative (FOD) - VIX The Kinetic Energy is stored over longer Time-Frames from (FOD) step-cycled decay in the Second Order Derivative (SOD) - UVXY. Unraveling Compressed Decay is straightforward based upon the Order of Derivative (OOD). These are IF .. THEN statements. IF...2:1 VIX unravel = THEN... $270.00 IF... 8:1 SPX unravel = THEN... $800.00 Furthermore, The (SOD) is a primary function of the S&P 500 Index. That function is Volatility to the Second Order. In order for UVXY to hit $270 or $800 we have to have comparable targets for the S&P Index. You can find the SPX Time-Series here---> Micro_45 Minute Time-Series Snapshot. Fractal Error Time 7 Days: SPX strike: $1080.00 could = 2:1 VIX unravel and/or 8:1 UVXY unravel UVXY strike: $215. UVXY strike: $270. UVXY strike: $360. UVXY strike: $500. UVXY strike: $800. 4 STD strike potential: $1200.00 ________________________ UVXY-->> Cycle of 390 days, Event Trigger 30 days. IF.. we followed the same cycle pattern.. THEN.. we should see events take place that trigger waves of volatility in FOD and SOD against mother analog SPX. Time-Series Snapshot of Cycle Breakdown with compression mechanic. SPX-->> Wavefunction Compare between 2000-2008 and 2021. Euclidean 80 year top boundary backtest. -75% to SPX Index in 2021. One of the Catalysts: 2nd Global Shutdown due to Covid-19. Understand the view brought forth is mine and mine alone. It is the work of creativity and thinking outside the box. You are correct not to trust a word I say. But what if?... This proposition is very experimental in every sense of the word. Understand that. With that understood, the risk is extraordinary, but so is the reward. High Risk = High Reward. Only the crazy change the world. And baby, I am a whole lotta crazy. The fractals provided that path the sequence shown for UVXY is a rough estimate. I do not expect exact actualization of fractals but merely something similar. There are a variety of possibilities of course. 99% of you doubt. Please doubt. But also be open minded to metrics unseen by the classical viewpoint. The error of fractal placement is 7 days. Maybe I am wrong... Maybe I am right... Either way.. Good Luck! That is the fun thing about binary decoding. The cat is alive and dead at the same time. Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution Welcome to the Cybernetic Era of Advancement Welcome to the Depths of Hyperspace Welcome to the Roaring 20's, Thanks for Pondering the Unknown with Me, Glitch420
CBOE:UVXYLong
by Glitch420
49
VIX ready to goVolume today and this past week on VXX has been significantly higher, showing accumulation and bullish divergence. Significantly oversold now I think the issue with options today or not knowing about the reverse split pulled in a ton of shorting which should add a short squeeze catalyst to a rocket fueled takeoff. Biden set the primer with a higher tax increase, new bad news will be the trigger and there is plenty of it out there. On the SPY weekly front we see a massive inverted hammer, RSI of 72 as well as a market outside of its bollinger band. The monthly looks like a blow off top and RSI is currently 73.5 - it is also pushing outside of the bollinger bands. We have not seen the market this overbought since 2018 right before that massive end of year correction. The market is currently priced well beyond perfection and we are now 2.9 standard deviations above the average on the Buffet Indicator, inflation is already running rampant, the fed continues to pump liquidity into markets and ignore the risk it is creating and the bubbles forming on nearly every asset front - a phenomena I dub the "everything bubble." I do not expect this to be THE crash, which I think will come later this year, but we should be looking at a pretty serious correction and I would think a VIX of around 30. Feel free to agree or disagree in the comments. I have been wrong and lost a significant amount of money going long VXX and UVXY so far this year, so do not take this as financial advice, but the ingredients seem just about perfect for a large VIX jump.
TVC:VIXLong
by stonkasaurusrex
2
Volatility - Supersymmetric ConvergenceIdea for VIX: Momentum, Value, and Earth strings are once again about to meet, creating Volatility. The Black Swan's supergravity is inevitable... Soon the loop will be closed. GLHF, DPT Disclaimer: We absolutely do not provide financial advice in any shape or form. We do not recommend investing based on our opinions and strongly cautions that securities trading and investment involves high risk and that you can lose a lot of money. Loss of principal is possible. We do not recommend risking money you cannot afford to lose. We do not guarantee future performance nor accuracy in historical analyses. We are not registered investment advisors. Our ideas, opinions and statements are not a substitute for professional investment advice. We provide ideas containing impersonal market observations and our opinions. Our speculations may be used in preparation to form your own ideas.
TVC:VIX
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
8