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UVXY

Volatility - VIX - Entropic BreakoutIdea for VIX: - Testing my new Heisenberg's Uncertainty Bands indicator (HUB). Hypothesis: - Whenever price (time factored out) breaks out from the 5th Fibonacci level, it signals that greater volatility is approaching. Expectations: - As price becomes more certain (buyers and sellers agree to a level or trend), the uncertainty range of price contracts, and the certainty of predicting momentum also contracts (the uncertainty of momentum increases). - Subsequently introducing momentum will increase the uncertainty of the position greatly. - Uncertainty in price has contracted greatly, and momentum is likely to reverse the downtrend in a chaotic fashion. GLHF, DPT Disclaimer: We absolutely do not provide financial advice in any shape or form. We do not recommend investing based on our opinions and strongly cautions that securities trading and investment involves high risk and that you can lose a lot of money. Loss of principal is possible. We do not recommend risking money you cannot afford to lose. We do not guarantee future performance nor accuracy in historical analyses. We are not registered investment advisors. Our ideas, opinions and statements are not a substitute for professional investment advice. We provide ideas containing impersonal market observations and our opinions. Our speculations may be used in preparation to form your own ideas. Link to my public script:
TVC:VIXLong
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
13
Vix Could be Hinting at a Replay of 2010Let's take a look at the Vix with a Heikin Ashi candlestick, and on a log scale. Notice the RSI on the monthly timeframe is 43, after hitting a similar RSI high in March 2020 (80) to that of Nov 2008, when the RSI was around 80 as well. The post November crash RSI low in the Great Recession crash was around 40, and we're at 43 now on the bounce. In 2010, abruptly following the 40 RSI test, we saw the RSI rise back toward 55, taking the Vix from a low of 15.20 to a 48 handle in a matter of weeks. Here we are, after the Major crash of 2020, and Vix is back at a 16 handle, with an RSI of 43. What might happen next if we see a notable correction, is an overcorrection, which could easily take Vix back to 48 based on previous market behaviour and sentiment, post crash. I don't see Vix having more than a 1 point downside at this stage, so I may consider increasing my position yet again, in anticipation of a large spike back to the 40's as early as this month. Thoughts and ideas welcome.
TVC:VIXLong
by Hedge_Of_The_World
19
The Big Hedging is Coming; Bonds and VIX looking BullishThe market lately has been very unstable to say the least and has been willing to jump onto any boat it can in order to avoid inflation, However the price action we are seeing on the 30 YR seems to indicate that Inflation fears are overblown and that the Value if the Dollar index will likely remain stable. While looking through the charts i noticed that there was an unusually high correlation between the 30YR Bonds and the VIX: Starting March 3rd 2014 as marked by the green vertical line on both charts. You can see that most Green Months in the 30 YR results in a Green Month in The VIX. I assume this is because many investors buy bonds in times of market uncertainty as a hedge against potential downturns in the value of equities and securities. Todays Surge in Treasury Bonds could signal: A rise in Volatility to come, A downturn in the Stock market, and a Rise in both the Value and Confidence in the US Dollar.
TVC:US30Long
by RizeSenpai
8
Stocks Rally on Positive Data, as Money Now Grows on TreesWe're seeing a massive landslide of wins across the economic data spectrum this morning, with Retail Sales coming in hot at 9.8% vs the 5.3% expected, Retail Sales ex-auto coming in at 8.4% vs the 4.9% expected, jobless claims coming in at the lowest level since before the pandemic at 576k vs the 695k expected, and finally continuing claims came in at 3.73MM vs the 3.72MM expected. We'll see Industrial Production at 9:15AM, as well as Capacity Utilization. Isn't it interesting how quickly those stimmy checks made it to families, and then went straight out the door? So, no what? We're gonna need another stimmy cheque asap! After some light weakness to end the trading day on Wednesday, followed by some further weakness in the overnight session, futures are skyrocketing higher on the positive data prints. As of 9AM, the S&P was trading up around 0.65% to 4,141.75, the Dow up 0.50% to 33,784, the Russell up 0.80% to 2,262.70, and the Nasdaq up 1% to 13,940.25. Gold, Silver, Platinum, Copper, and Palladium, were all higher on the day, as the dollar burns to the ground on perpetual easy monetary policy, and "free money" fiscal policy. The Vix is back near the post March crash lows, and is trading around 16.8 as of 9AM. We're seeing the most vicious decay in risk protection I've ever seen in my career. Risk is a bad word, and has seemingly been cancelled by Wall Street. Let's see how this progresses as Main Street lines up again with their hand out, for another round of stimmy cheques. According to Goldman Sachs, “We are probably entering the last stage of the pricing of the growth acceleration, and we see encouraging signs suggesting the ‘reflationary’ environment can continue and be supportive for risky assets in the near term." This comes after Goldman, JP Morgan, and Wells Fargo posted stellar quarterly results. Wall Street is just loving this bail out. They're simply never held accountable for their actions and their systematiclly threatening and reckless derivatives behaviour. European stocks were mixed this morning with the Dax up half a percent to 15,264, the CAC40 down 0.64% to 6,170, and the FTSE up 0.69% to 6,941. In Asia, the Nekkei 225 was up 0.36% to 29,718, while the Hang Seng was down by 0.30%, and the CSI was up by 0.78% to 4,979.60. Considering we're sitting at the ATH's, it appears we're in for another day of sideways PA, with markets having no other option but to catch all that free money, and levitate yet again. Stay patient as the ponzi nears the end, and free money begins to put pressure on the Fed to hike rates sooner than "expected". Our live analysis begins at 9:30AM! Cheers, Michael. *I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HQD, QID.
TVC:VIXLong
by Hedge_Of_The_World
2
IWM/M2 - Potential Head and Shoulders ReversalWith M2 up around 25% since last January, leading to higher equity inflows in the past 5 months, than in the past 12 years combined, price has become quite distorted. When you divide the indexes by M2, you'll notice that price action looks a lot more like it did pre QE days, when Fib retracements actually worked to indicate the strength of a "bounce". With the previous high showing us a solid rejection on the Russell (IWM), and with the S&P, and QQQ both showing potential tops with a 1.618 Fib test, and a double top formation, respectively, we could finally be seeing the last November like, face ripping rally to new ATH's. With long delta exposure in the 92.8th percentile, we're more than due for a correction. But, unfortunately, everyone is sitting on the same side of the boat, and is completely blind to risk. Just look at the Vix, no one wants risk protection right now. It's quite shocking to witness...
AMEX:IWMShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
5
QQQ Simply Has to be Showing a Double TopWe've just seen another rocket parade over the past 2 weeks, like the one we saw back in November. But, as we kick-off Q1 earnings season, are we finally seeing the end of the insane post Covid crash rally? If we break out higher, the S&P could potentially breach the upper band of the ascending channel, leading to yet another round of short squeezes, and new ATH's. According to Nomura, we're in the 92.8th percentile for long delta, which is extreme to say the least. Everyone is on one side of the boat, so what happens next?
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
2
UVXY - Entropy, Gravity, and LightIdea for UVXY: - Attached is Fundamental Analyses. - We do not expect UVXY to reach $1.00 before the reversal of the greater trend. - Why would Volatility enter an increasing trend? We expect global economic contraction, before stagflation, then finally deflation. GLHF, DPT Disclaimer: We absolutely do not provide financial advice in any shape or form. We do not recommend investing based on our opinions and strongly cautions that securities trading and investment involves high risk and that you can lose a lot of money. Loss of principal is possible. We do not recommend risking money you cannot afford to lose. We do not guarantee future performance nor accuracy in historical analyses. We are not registered investment advisors. Our ideas, opinions and statements are not a substitute for professional investment advice. We provide ideas containing impersonal market observations and our opinions. Our speculations may be used in preparation to form your own ideas.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
11
Where do Markets go From Here?- Global stocks are flying high to start the week, and are testing ATH's on Tuesday morning. The MSM are all singing the same song of sunshine and rainbows, with recent Chinese, and US data, showing signs of continued strength. We all know the data is completely bogus, and is possibly the reason why over 18 million Americans are still on some form of income benefits. If you don't have accurate data, for example: the BLS recently revealed that upwards of 50% of their data is based on estimates, then don't share it. It's not accurate, and not by a long shot. How could this data be used to formulate economic policy? What a complete joke. - The few bears left standing have most likely been seeked out, and decimated by this recent surge in stocks. As a reminer, we rallied everyday heading into the end of Q3, after one of the best quarterly performances in history (zero visible month-end selling). This market just reeks of fraud and greed right now. - The S&P is set to open down around 0.16% to 4,061.12, with the Dow down 0.20% to 33,346, the Nasdaq flat at 13,586, and the Russell down around 0.20% to 2,258. - Vix is seeing a light bid after hitting a new low of 17.30, and is back at an 18 handle as of 9AM. The PA on Vix is not normal, nor is it accurate. It's completely manipulated by the Fed Put, and other MM's who are addicted to raking in premium while markets drift sideways/melt higher. - The US10Y Treasury yield is sitting comfortably around a 1.68%, but is notably off the recent highs. Foreign institutions will be taking advantage of the US10Y yield as it's quite attractive compared to other G20 nations. The US30Y also retreated back to 2.34%, and continues to skip along key support levels, including the 21 day EMA at 2.33, which is acting as strong support. - European markets traded are up across the board, with the CAC40 up by 0.42%, and the Dax up 0.54%, with the FTSE 100 up 0.48%, and the SMI up 0.15%. I swear the worse the economic landscape in the Euro-zone, the better stock markets do. It's all central banks. Asian markets were mixed, with the Hang Seng up 2.2%, the CSI 300 down 0.44%, and the Nikkei 225 down 1.34%. - Gold is up around 0.50% to 1,737, with Silver up by as much as 1%. We're now trading around 25. Platinum is a rocket today, and is up 1.6%, and is sitting at 1,229, while Copper traded lower by 1.2% to 4.08, and Palladium rose by 1.5% to 2,696. - Crude is up notably, with WTI up around 1.4%, and trading at 59.43, and Brent up 1.2%, and trading around 62.88. - The US Dollar (DXY) is levitating around 92.54 after seeing some weakness to strat the week. We'll have to see if we get another leg higher on some potential profit taking this week. - Our live analysis begins at 9:30AM! *I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HQD, QID
TVC:US10YLong
by Hedge_Of_The_World
6
Concerning Vix Patterns and a way to profit it from itThere appears to be a pattern forming that cycles and could signal a pop or swell in the vix. With the way the geopolitical landscape has been, I would assume it would be a pop based on a certain piece of news or an event. A swell would be more worrisome for the overall market. There was a great post here and I can't remember who posted it, forgive me, but they had a great explanation of how a vix pop is a buying opportunity, while a vix swell is a warning sign. A cool way to play volatility is through investment vehicles such as VXX or UVXY. VXX is not levered while UVXY is levered to the vix by 1.5x. My preference is to play it with UVXY, but that's just me and my risk tolerance. I like to build up a position slowly as the chop continues all the while having a limit sell in for a reasonable level in order to catch gains on a red day if I'm not tuned in. The other cool part about using this as volatility dampener in your portfolio is that on those sh*t show days, you actually have some buying power to harvest with out locking in any unnecessary losses or having to harvest gains from one of your most beloved long-term holds or just a position that has not hit your price target yet.
TVC:VIXLong
by EBITDAtiger
4
UVXY Support and resistance lines by curved linesI have been following UVXY for months now and using fib lines & curved lines as support and resistance. So far, the lines have been helpful guides. Tradingview allows us to use curved lines, but it takes some practice to adjust the curved line to fit the trend. I had the light orange curved lines on my chart before the spike in January happened, and the orange curve line did form a resistance on the top of the light orange curve, then the price fell down below the orange curve. In fact I was surprised at how well the price responded to the lines of the curve as resistance. These curve lines, used along with fibonacci lines are helpful as guidelines. Although the price may spike again to the top of the curve, these lines, just like any support and resistance lines, and not necessarily predictive. They are predictive of what might happen, but they are more useful as guidelines. Using the lines on the sides of a highway as an analogy, the lines are predictive of the area that cars are supposed to drive in, but it doesn't mean that a car cannot drive through the lines off the road. If a car crosses the line on the side of the highway, then of course it is a bad sign of where the car may end up - it could keep going off and crash. In the case of UVXY, it will sooner or later break downward through all the support lines due to the nature of UVXY. So UVXY is not suitable as a long term investment. Even to short it is not suitable for a long term investment without a lot of risk. I am more focused on trades lasting from a few days up to a couple months max. To me, it looks like where we are at now is an area of a lot of different support lines on this chart. Between current prices in the $8.00 range down to around $7.70 there seems to be a lot of support. Not to say that it could not fail as support, but when there are multiple support lines, typically odds should increase of the price holding on the support. If these lines of support fail, the lower blue curved line offers support in the $5.00 range. Although that is a big drop from current prices around $8.50, it is possible for it to drop that much before a large spike in price. I suspect we probably will get a spike in price off of the $7.70 - $8.00 price range though. There is the descending teal colored resistance line, if the price breaks above this line, then we may see prices go up much higher. In the near term, my best case target (for the LONG side) for UVXY is around $46.00 Measuring fibonaccci levels between recent low of uvxy of $8.24 to previous high in 2020 of $135.00 -- $46.00 is around the .618 fib level retrace (back up -- or .382 down from the high of $135.00). You can use the fibonacci lines below that as lower targets as well though. Just keep in mind that although the price may follow these lines quite well, it is not for certain and the lines are intended to be used as guidelines. This is not a recommendation to buy or to sell UVXY and you should do your own research before trading this.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by cedarfox
13
Ponzi Schemes, Margin Calls, and the Beginning of the EndMarket preview: - After a comedic but painful day of PA on Friday, with the last few shorts in the market getting squeezed out of their positions (again), futures are showing some light weakness on Monday morning. Archegos Capital failed to meet a critical margin call last week, leading to billions in losses, and other stocks linked to the fund, such as Nomura, and Credit Suisse, were also battered by over 10% before recovering some losses. Margin call you say? Hmm, I wonder how that happened in a market where everyone is drunk on margin debt? - The bulls went full nuclear on Friday, and the S&P is set to open down around half a percent to 3,945.62, with the Dow also down half a percent at 32,772, the Nasdaq down 0.15% to 12,948.25, and the Russell down around 0.75% to 2,202.10. - Vix is seeing a light bid and is back at a 20 handle after kissing a new post March crash low of 18.70 (we've now filled the final gap). The irrational exuberance on every single dip is really getting frustrating. I just read that 44% of US Treasuries are now held by the Fed and foreign official institutions. If that isn't a Ponzi, then what is? Will the Fed ever be able to normalize policy, or will they watch the entire global financial system go down in flames because of their blind obsession with debt? Something tells me the bond market will make the decision for them. - The US10Y Treasury yield is sitting comfortably at a 1.64% handle, but it notably off the recent high of 1.754% (for now). The US30Y also retreated back to 2.348%, and continues to skip along key support levels. - European markets traded mixed, with the CAC40 up by 0.27%, and the Dax up 0.27%, with the FTSE 100 down 0.80%, and the SMI down 0.30%. Asian markets were mixed also, with the Hang Seng up 0.45%, the CSI 300 down 0.20%, and the Nikkei 225 down 0.75%. - Gold is down around 0.30% to 1,724, with Silver down by as much as 1%. We're now trading around 24.82. Platinum is up 1%, and is sitting at 1,196, while Copper traded lower by 0.73% to 4.04, and Palladium fell by 3% to 2,595. - Crude is up notably, with WTI up around half a percent, and trading at 61.25, and Brent up half a percent also, and trading around 64.92. - The US Dollar (DXY) is levitating around 92.80, and looks poised to melt higher on possible month end selling. - Lots of data coming this week, of course, but the number one print I'm looking forward to is March Payrolls on Friday. - Our live analysis begins at 9:30AM! *I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
27
UVXY & VIX about to MOVE?Signs of an incoming swing upwards. Move index showing signs of a big volatility spike. UVXY money flow showing money is piling into the hedge as they did back in February 2020. SPY CMF showing the big money has exited (not shown on this chart). Bullish divergence marked on the charts RSI and CMF. Higher lows on Thursday and Friday. Wednesday would have been the same if it weren't for the Powell Pump in the afternoon. Not investment advice. I am not an expert. Good luck to all!
CBOE:UVXYLong
by Addicted2vtec
30
King Dollar is Back, BabyHaving met our previous target of 92.50, then cooling off a bit in recent trade, we're seeing the dollar make a run for a potential new near term high. Our new target is the 200MA (M) around 95.25. If long ended yields catch intraday support off their 21 day EMA's, we could see another leg higher toward 2% on the 10Y yield, and the 2.5% level on the 30Y yield, implying a rough month/quarter end for both the bond, and stock market. Let's see what happens as the majors lose critical supports...
TVC:DXYLong
by Hedge_Of_The_World
7
VIX Futures Price Curve Vs. VIXSimple enough. The market is showing extreme divergence between Futures contracts priced for next month, and Futures contracts priced for Q4. This is the largest divergence seen within this Futures cycle. My theory is that it could be indicative of a bottom in VIX and the market pricing for more serious volatility events later in the year. Key: Bolder, lighter lines: Near-term Finer, darker lines: Longer-term This utilized VIX futures priced between next month and November.
CBOE:VXJ2021Long
by RogueEconomics