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VOLATILITY - $VIX - Q1-Q2 Bullish Elliot Wave ForecastJust working on the forecast model. Practice makes perfect. This is my bullish Elliot Wave Forecast. I think bullish (for VIX) - just look at M1 for a start, but there is more investigation to be done... However: “The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time, and still retain the ability to function.” - F. Scott Fitzgerald Always need to have multiple threads in order to survive any sort of market or economic condition! Should we minimize damage, or is the best defense a good offense? GLHF
TVC:VIXLong
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
2
Is the November Gap Parade Back?Based on the seemingly neverending optimistic narratives in the MSM, you'd think the economy is a rocket ship, heading for the promise land, where every family in the US is going to be taken care of by the government, and Fed, who have no agenda other than to do everything in their power to help you. Your thinking about the stock market, and with jobless claims coming in this morning at 712k vs 725k expected, along with over 4M continuing claims still plaguing the labour market, we're not quite seeing the recovery we're reading about on main street. In fact, at over 700k initial claims, we're running at over 4 times the pre-covid levels, and in actuality, the total number of Americans on some form of income benefits is still over 20 Million. I guarantee you won't hear that fact discussed in the MSM. Mean while, Wall Street has never been happier, and more successful than they have been over the past year. The US added 50 new billionaires in a year, and the top wealthiest saw their wealth increase by over 30%. Anyone on main street see their wealth increase over 30%, other than the gamblers diving head first into risk? I didn't think so. The 10Y Treasury saw a strong auction yesterday, but the headline imo is the fact that we saw a yield of 1.52%, vs the prior yield of 1.15%. Rates are still rising rapidly folks, and the CTA's clearly didn't cover as many analysts expected. From a technical standpoint, we're looking at downside in the yield to 1.41% (21 day EMA), and then the 1.31% level, which is the 100MA (w). With 2% just above us and calling for a test, it won't be long until the 10Y is over 2% and the majors are down 20%. This is not even a dramatic projection, but the base case according to Morgan Stanley. The Dollar (DXY) saw a strong rejection at our target, around 92.50, and after selling off toward the 91.60 level this morning, looks poised to rally hard back toward the recent highs. In volatility, we looking at a relentless sell off since the March 4th high of 31.9 on the Vix. But, we appear to be finding support around the March 3rd low, at a 22 handle. In metals, both Gold and Silver are catching a strong bid, potentially off the back of the stimulus proposal decimating the dollar's purchasing power further. We're also seeing Platinum, Copper, and Palladium rally as well. In oil, WTI is back at a 65 handle after some brief turbulence, and we remain on track to see a 70 handle before long. If not, perhaps we'll hear news about another "hit" to supply, forcing the price increase. You know the game. On the majors, we're seeing the type of price action that makes most traders feel sick. The gap ups are back, and look a lot like November 2020, when we saw M1 blow up by the largest magnitude in history. The Green ascending channel on SPY has been broken while we all slept, (those fuckers), and we're looking at a possible test of the top of the recent wedge formation around 393, before a possible continuation of the downtrend. This move would put us within a couple points of the ATH, which is nuts. Fibonacci would be rolling over in his grave at these Frankenstein retracements. Thanks for your time today guys and I hope you enjoyed the analysis! Check us over at Hedge of the World for our live analysis which begins at 9:30AM. FYI we're offering 30% off our monthly membership, today only. *I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
12
Wave spikes Looks there there should be a little short term spike for tomorrow. We are going in this wave pattern of spikes each going higher with the increase of volatility and looks like this isn't going to reside anytime soon. Curious to see it unfold with both DXY and the ES1! at different critical levels and see if they resume their course they've started this past week. If we break the blue dotted trend then we will officially break out of a descending triangle that started since last March. That all folks
TVC:VIX
by moonman777
7
Anyone Else Feeling Car Sick?US markets are treading water on Monday morning, ahead of the US cash open, but the Nasdaq is seeing some pressure amid another surge in the 10Y yield back toward the 1.61% level. The Biden Administration has successfully won the Senate vote on the $1.9T stimulus package, which should now see the bill go back to the house for final senate approved changes, and then to Biden's desk for signature. Typically, this would be a sell the news event, particularly because this is such an important time for household spending/debt levels. The issue I see now, is when this money is rapidy spent (if it hasn't been already), and then what happens? Let's see how long it takes before we see more talks of another stimulus package, which if even suggested, could see the dollar tank, and crypto fortified as the only logical path forward. Oil rallied hard on a drone attack on Aramco (again), which saw Brent rise as high as a 71 handle, before pairing some gains. Remember last time all the investment banks went bullish on oil, and then Aramco facilities saw a "rocket" attack? Interesting timing, and how these things just happen to work out for the investments banks everytime. Just another conspiracy in this new world order of secrecy and lies. We'll be looking forward to key (long end) treasury auctions this week, which should be very telling considering the long end is tanking. Either the (anticipated) increase of supply with all the new fiscal debt, or the shrinking demand as rates rise, has the bond market on thin ice. With the 10Y continuing to put pressure on growth, we could be in for one hell of a week. We're seeing a clear rotation out of growth and into value, which should continue for sometime, sending the broader indexes lower in the interim. China's CSI was down by as much as 3.5% this morning, which officially puts the CSI in correction territory. As we noted last week, the Nasdaq fell by as much as 10% as well from the ATH, putting it in correction territory also. With european markets mixed, and analysts across Wall Street expecting everything from a global market crash, to an immediate term rebound, it seems everyone has the same question on their mind, "when the fuck is this market finally going to see an actual correction?" Vix is up around 5% on the day and sitting at a 26 handle, after being hammered on Friday by as much as 14%. We're seeing some pressure as I'm typing, because we're being panic bid into the open (as usual). The irrational exuberance is apparently back after the perceived value from last week's light selling. The bulls are infinitely deep pocketed it seems, and exclusively like converting cash into assets. I wonder what will happen when things actually correct, and if they'll remember how to sell those assets. Hopefully there will be someone there to buy them when the time comes. Maybe we'll find out as early as this week... *I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
TVC:US10YLong
by Hedge_Of_The_World
12
Jobless Claims Rise on Thursday, Markets on EdgeGlobal futures are mixed on Wednesday morning, while the US majors are extending losses, after an ugly session yesterday, which saw the Nasdaq (QQQ) lose the critical neckline, after losing the 50 day MA earlier on in the week. The SPY is poised to open at the 50 day MA around 380.70, which has acted as strong support as recently as Jan 29th. If we see a break below the 50 day MA today, we could be looking at massive downside to the Jan 29th low of around 368, which is sitting just above the 100 day MA (367.24). If we see a strong bounce off of, I don't know, more jawboning by Powell today maybe, we may see another test of the 21 day EMA at 385.77. In volatility, we saw the Vix catch a nice bid off of yesterday's weakness to a 27 handle, and as I mentioned in our live analysis, the Vix is on course for another spike in the immediate term, potentially to the 37 level, or higher. We'll have to closely monitor the remarks by Powell, and the media narratives around the stimulus as well. On the data front, Jobless Claims came in hot with 745k claims vs the 725k expected. But, continuing claims fell to 4.29 Million from 4.42 Million last week. No notable response by markets as yet, but wait for the open, and we should get a better sense of sentiment. I wish the Put/Call would give an indication of a shift in sentiment, but it appears to be skewed perpetually. With the 10Y yield at 1.47% and holding firm, we really shouldn't be seeing a sharp risk on move like the one we saw on Monday, but rather a cautious tone in anticipation of a disappointment from Powell's speech. If we get talk of YCC, and Powell says he's going to start buying long dated treasuries to keep rates low (changing the rules on bears again), I'll hit the fucking roof. Best of luck out there today guys, and trade safe. Our live analysis begins at 9:30AM. Cheers, Michael. *I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
12
The journey to 408, and the psychology behind it.For starters, spy hit my target perfectly from yesterdays post: Secondly, we are in the midst of finishing the final wave 5 structure on the largest possible degree (dating back to the 1800's. Currently I have this 5 ending at 4083.50, but I wasn't sure how we would get there until today. >Sub-wave 3 impulses out of the rising wedge which spy has formed since September. >Dumps it into 3\19, but not as deep as everyone expects it to (bear trap) >Has one more final false breakout to trap the last of the bulls (bull trap) >Then we drop to 250 based on my good friends prediction here: I 110% expect a lot more bull \ bear traps along the way, and it is not going to be a smooth ride, but the numbers all check out perfectly. Be cautious, and as always, trade safely. 💸
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by notoriousbids
4
MACRO - VOLATILITY & SP500 -$VIX - The Gamma Bubble - Blood MoonThe Gamma Bubble is about to burst. - High implied volatility on VIX... Barely moved during the market selloff on Friday. I think when indicators that usually inverse each other stop correlating with each other, investors are just completely exiting the markets. - Over $100 Bn in bonds liquidated... Liquidity in the bond market was the only reason that I was able to remain bullish with some confidence in the equities market until now. - Dark Pool Index indicating that institutional investors have been exiting positions since January. The last time such a movement was seen was in Feb. of last year. - SPY with a scythe... algorithms selling off, while price being painted up for gamma exposure and theta burn: In today's market, the lit pool markets are secondary to dark pool markets and the options market. True price discovery occurs after options have expired. - $1.9 T Stimulus Bill passed, but I speculate it will only increase the scale of the liquidity crisis to come... - $100 Bn~ was about the amount that the MM would need to have paid out from their exposed short positions on $GME at its previous high, when their 140% short interest via naked shorts was raided by retail investors, before Robinhood and other brokerages restricted buying. We saw exposed institutions liquidate their long positions across their market to defend their short position here. - Congress only increased media exposure to the issue, and GME is preparing for another wave of retail impulse buying... By Elliot Wave Theory, the next impulse wave will take $GME higher than the previous high. - Retail investors are certain to use at least some of their stimulus to fuel this movement. - Not only GME, but AMC seems to be a likely candidate to converge with GME's price, via short squeeze + gamma squeeze. There are other highly suppressed stocks that are also rising. - If SPY also begins a downtrend, it is the greatest candidate to gamma squeeze downwards, due to colossal implied volatility caused by the strength of the MM's algorithmic pinning. Simply put, if SPY falls, it will fall hard and fast, and the OTM puts will fuel the short squeezes even more. This is big trouble. A liquidity crisis in the making, if the short side institutions do not unwind their positions. - GME - AMC I took a hedge position, risked off, and began short positions on Feb. 10, more based on technical indicators, but I think this is more confirmation. We will have to see if the Stimulus Bill can prolong this, but I think many are in agreement that a correction is imminent.
TVC:VIXLong
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
8
Roller Coaster Market SicknessAfter a relatively weak day yesterday across global markets, US futures are seeing some light volatility this morning with the S&P hovering around 386.40, the Dow at 31,400, the Nasdaq at 13,000, and the Russell at 2,236. European markets caught a light bid, while Asian markets were up notably. After seeing one of the best performing days for global markets sine June 2020 on Monday, investors seem a bit confused about what comes next for price action. Will we see persistent buying off the back of infinite failed corrections/the demise of risk management? Markets can't seem to swallow a loss of more than 3% over a week right now, so maybe we should all go long, and then everything would be awesome, right? Fuck that, I'll be the last bear standing. Nothing's changed, and that brings us to stimulus. We should be gearing up for another round of bullshit stimulus narratives in the media this week, as today marks the senate's involvement in the bill, with March 14th set as the "signing into law" date. As I've mentioned in previous analysis, the stimulus proposal is a drop in the bucket. Households are going to spend this money before the quarter is done, or maybe they'll just spend it on taxes in April. But, as far as it's ability to impact productivity, or inspire a wave of new jobs/hiring, it's a failure of a distraction, and in my opinion, a complete joke of a "rescue package," for main street. Will it be a sell the news event for the 10th time? We'll soon find out. Metals are selling off heavily this morning, with Gold, Silver, platinum, Copper, and palladium down over 2%. Crude is rebounding from yesterday's weakness, and is up around 2% on the day. The dollar is hovering around a 91 handle, and looking strong. After the recent break above the neckline around 90.75 on DXY, we should see increased bullishness as we approach the back nine of the week. In volatility, Vix is holding up strong, and is still at a 24 handle, after falling as low as 23 yesterday morning. I imagine as stocks race back near their ATH, certain trades are becoing quite crowded. Be on the look out for rapid interest in risk protection, should anything whatsoever materialize to the downside for risk. Best of luck out there today, my friends! Our live analysis begins at 9:30AM. Cheers, Michael. * I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
7
America Targets Forced Labor--Gives Economic AdvantageThat's probably the only reason why they care too, lol...It creates an unfair economic advantage--and that's it! (Newsquawk) "Furthermore, it was reported that the US administration will engage with allies to combat forced labour including in China and will examine how the Treasury, Commerce Department and USTR can work together to deter currency intervention for trade advantage and is to pursue all available tools to address China's unfair trade practices from excess capacity to coercive technology transfers." See, we've just displayed a clear economic incentive to stop forced labor. More proof capitalism is the answer to all the world's problems. Just kidding lol ;)
NYSE:BABA
by stocktradez6
☢️ 💣Market Volmadeggon: VIX – sky is the limitHi guys, is this VIX chart is like „deja vu“?? At last financial crisis at 2008 the simmilar pattern created like recent months. Treasury spread yields telling the same story again in lower pane. After first cross of its 12-month MA it takes 5 months to firs bigger surge in TVC:VIX . Then it takes 13 bars to yield spread approach to 2%, then volmadeggon begun…. The situation on chart looks familiar now... If history repeats this time not be different but much bigger than 2008 After first cross 12 month MA of Yields spread it takes 3 bars to new higher high on TVC:VIX 37.5 in 2008. This month its 12 bars from TVC:VIX new higher high 85.5 when COVID-19 pandemy started.You can observe same massive vix squeeze as in 2008. So its looks like this year 2021 will be EPIC & LEGENDARY in financial markets As you notice in chart, my target is at 2.61 Fibbonacci retracement level because this level was reached at 2008 too. If you like the idea, do not forget to support with a 👍 like and follow. Leave a comment that is helpful or encouraging. Let's master the markets together.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tomasgei
8
SPY is going down these next two months 🧨🔨In Elliott Wave Theory there are only two kinds of moves: Impulses , and Corrections . We can all agree that since November, this grind up is not an impulse, which means... that this is a correction. Wave B's are nicknamed "The Suckers Rally" and boy are there a lot of suckers, including myself lol. VPVR points to a retest of last years high (big money buy zone) >Max Pain next month is at 375 >Max Pain the month after is at 369 >It would also explain the HUGE bearish divergence since September. I'm rolling with this count, as it is the only one that makes sense from a textbook perspective. Todays idea is also in line with the first bearish outlook I ever gave spy on Jan 23rd.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by notoriousbids
2
Get some insurance at least UVXY At this point of time if you are freaking out about the perspectives of the market you should get some insurance for your portfolio by getting some UVXY shares. Not financial advice though. just an idea. Good luck investing and trading! Disclaimer, this is only for entertainment and education purposes and doesn't serve by any means as a buy or sell recommendation. Personally I hold both long term long positions and occasionally short term short position, for disclosure purpose.
CBOE:UVXY
by hanzhao311
2