Get started

UVXY

Are we Finally About to See a (Real) Correction?Well, well, well. The 10Y yield clipped 1.466% on Thursday morning, after spiking yesterday to 1.39%. As a reminder, according to Nomura, the 1.50% level is a CTA short trigger level, and could have a major negative impact on equity prices if breached. On top of that, we have several investment banks watching the 2% level, where, Morgan Stanley in particular, sees upwards of a 22% correction possible on the Nasdaq. We're seeing strong flows into Financials off the back of the recent bond market weakness, as well as notable strength in Energy, off the back of higher crude prices. We just saw initial claims come in at 730k vs the 820k estimate. Continuing claims hit 4.41 million, vs the prior print of 4.52 million. Durable Goods came in at 3.4% vs the 1.2% expected, with ex-transportation at 1.4% vs the expected 0.6%. Finally, Q4 GDP came in at 4.1% as expected. Pending home sales figures are out at 10AM. For those of you who missed the GME, and other "most shorted stocks" explosion of up to 300%+ yesterday, like me, just remember that what goes up, must come down, and there are many ways to profit from this type of volatility. One thing I wouldn't want to be, at any point, is long GME, or AMC. Futures are trading in the red this morning, with the S&P down around 0.40%, the Russell flat, and the Nasdaq down around 1%. No real surprises to write home about after yesterday's garbage rhetoric from Powell, who mentioned as many times as possible (in my words), that the Fed's favorite game to play is to spoon feed Wall Street, while Main Street learns to wipe their asses with the US Dollar. With Vix back at nose bleed levels this morning (22.50), and stocks back near ATH's, it's time to reassess the outlook for the next 12 months, minimum. Imagine subscribing to the current level of implied equity risk, with next to no return as the likely reward. What's the best reason to be long equities right now? Inflation? Economic recovery? Vaccines? Hope? It sure isn't for the potential upside, or attractive risk/reward. Maybe notwithstanding the rise in yields, most traders still think NIRP is on the way. We'll find out soon enough, I guess. Re my positions: Although my UVXY position is down around 25% at the moment, I'd still rather hold Vix, than be long equities or cash. With the upside in Vix near infinity, and the downside limited with lingering uncertainty, Vix is by far my favorite play right now. Call me crazy... *I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
40
UVXY: Timing the SpikeSince the market seems to be making considerably newer highs weekly, investors are starting to look into options for hedging their current positions and UVXY seems to be the place many eyes have landed. Though this volatility index is a depreciating asset purchasing shares of UVXY in a time when a correction may be imminent can lead to potentially exponential gains once said correction happens. Though this is an extremely risky strategy, I believe that paying and attention to the MMTW (Percent of stocks above the 20-period moving average) and MMTH (Percent of stocks above the 200-period moving average) indexes can help provide traders and investors with insight as to when the appropriate time to hedge with UVXY are present. As you can see on the chart, A spike in UVXY is almost always consistent with the crossing down of the MMTW below the 50% line - The strength of the move can be observed by also watching the MMTH index and paying attention to it's 50% line as well. If one has a larger risk appetite, purchasing UVXY when the MMTW crosses below the 60% point could place the trader in a good position to profit in the short term trade. Since the strategy of shorting volatility is is a pretty widely known and a profitable one, most of these trades have the lifespan of a mayfly and should be closed quickly unless confirmation of the marketwide downward trend is seen on the MMTH index. If the direction of the market is not confirmed or the UVXY rally is rejected, taking the countertrade (short UVXY) could also see nice returns if held for a significant period of time (see: depreciating asset) These are not trading strategies for the faint of heart so best to plan accordingly based on risk appetite. Marking this once as Neutral since it can be approached from both sides but I may very well be longing UVXY once the 50% line is tested
CBOE:UVXY
by myceliium
12
Buy $UVXY - NRPicks Feb 14$UVXY is an index that seeks to offer exposure to market volatility through publicly traded futures markets and is designed to measure the implied volatility of the S&P 500 for 30 days in the future. Volatility in the last few weeks has been declining, $VIX comes from a drop of around 40% since January, so the main indices recorded all time highs during the week and if we add to that the euphoria unseeded by WSB in sectors such as the cannabis companies, it is logical to expect a correction. The Index during the week lost a key level of 10 for the first time in history which could mean a strong rebound in the short term. Technical: 13% below your MA50 Below-average RSI levels - oversold
CBOE:UVXYLong
by NewroadTrader
US Markets Lose Footing on WednesdayUS markets saw some light chop in the overnight session, with the Dow and S&P trading relatively flat from yesterday's close, and the Nasdaq, and Russell, trading down around 0.30%. The US 10Y yield continued it's rally toward the 100MA (w), with a print of 1.331% before cooling off toward the 1.31% level. The 2s10s spread is now the widest in almost 3 years. As we discussed yesterday, whether we're about to see diminishing demand, or a notable increase in supply for long dated treasuries, it's important to keep an eye on the long end of the curve for hints of a potential market correction. Markets are ripe for a 15 - 20% correction, so trade with caution. We should be getting some insights from the FOMC minutes later on today on the future outlook of the economy, and current policy stance. It's unlikely we see much of a change in the outlook, but slowly we'll begin to hear mention of YCC, and potentially the impact that rates could have on borrowing/ near term market performance. According to Arne Petimezas, analyst for AFS Amsterdam, "Regarding the bond market sell-off, things are finally starting to get serious as real yields are on the rise, driven by bets of central banks tightening sooner than previously expected.” Things could get very interesting if the 10Y yield hits 1.50%. In crypto, Bitcoin continues it's march higher, with a $51k handle now under it's belt. We're not seeing anything unusual in the latest crypto rally, because essentially the higher the implied beta of the security, the better it seems to do in this new "risk free" market. In metals, Gold, Silver, and Platinum, all receded, with Platinum seeing the largest pull back of 2.25%. We're now looking at $1250/oz. Finally, on the data front, Retail Sales came in hot, and surged 5.3% vs 1.1% expected, leading to the highest YOY rise since 2011. Core retail sales rose by a whopping 11.8% YOY, which according to Zero Hedge, is the biggest rise in history. Hey, I guess when money is free, people spend it. Producer prices are soaring with PPI and Core PPI coming hot at 1.3% vs 0.5%exp, and 1.2% vs 0.2%, respectively. Markets don't look happy... Thanks for your time today guys, and I hope you enjoyed the analysis. Head on over to www.hedgeoftheworld.com for our live analysis to begin shortly. Cheers! Michael. *The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
14
Stunning! 1.34% is the Next StopBack on Dec 1 when we initially discussed the possibility that the bond market was poised for a correction/crash, we didnt anticipate this as a stairs up move with the 10Y on the verge of breaking .90% and approaching the 1% mark. However, the rise since August has been persistent, and we're now approaching the 100MA (w) around 1.34%. When credit markets do break, the move to 1.5% is going to be a quick one. Equity markets aren't going to be happy...
TVC:US10YLong
by Hedge_Of_The_World
4
12 Days of Gains, It's Like Christmas!Global markets are simply unstoppable at the moment. According to Zero Hedge, the MSCI World index just saw it's longest winning streak in 17 years, having risen for the past 12 days in a row. Jerry must be dancing naked in front of the mirror every morning without fail. What a clown. The US majors were up around half a percent on Tuesday morning, with the scent of optimism in the air, and with the hint of more free money on the horizon, retail investors are straight up sativa high. The 10Y yield continues to march higher, and the FED now has a serious problem on it's hands. Will we see YCC as soon as this month? We kissed a 1.26% handle earlier in the session, and the long end of the curve is now clearly on the run. The 30Y yield hit a new 12 month high of 2.078%, and has broken through the 100MA (w) at 1.94%. If the 30 runs to the 200MA (w), we'll be looking at a yield of just under 2.5%. That's a game changer imo. The US dollar (DXY) is seeing some notable action, we're up from 90.13 and now sitting around 90.55. The neckline is sitting just above us around 90.75. The Vix is catching some much needed support around the post March crash low's. We're poised to open around 21.50, after hitting a low of 20 on Friday. When this beast really wakes up, we'll be looking at a 40 handle before we can blink. I'm definitely sticking around for the show. On another note, in crypto, Bitcoin hit a new ATH above 50k. Wowzers. Crypto anyone? On SPY, we're set to open around 394, with the upper band of the channel acting as resistance (even though we may gap above on the open). We have the 21EMA (h) just below the channel band at 390.50, then the 21EMA (d) at 383.67. We're looking at a daily RSI of 66, and an hourly RSI of 67. There's definitely room to run if the bulls so choose, but the reality is we're in the stratosphere, where next to no one is participating. The oxygen levels are low, and the bulls are high as a kite. The name of the game right now is patience. Thanks for your time today guys, and I hope you enjoyed the analysis. Stick around for our live analysis to begin shortly. Cheers! Michael. *The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
5
11 Days of Gains? What Planet...Global markets continue to march higher, as every last short position in the world of trading is squeezed to death in seemingly coordinated fashion. While large HF's continue to frontrun retail orderflow, they'll continue to know exactly what retail traders are doing at every moment, and how to take full advantage on the way up, and on the way down with their close proximity to the exchanges, and their HFT algos. Where are the regulators you ask? We'll have to see how much of what's really going on is even discussed in the financial media, or in congress over the next couple weeks. I imagine they'll all act like it had nothing to do with market makers, or frontrunning at all. Maybe they'll even blame the retail traders to protect Wall Street. It's amazing what politicians will do to protect their wealthy donors. As the US majors hit new ATH's, yields continue to rise. The 10Y yield hit a new 11 month high at 1.218% today, and we're looking poised to test the 100MA (w), sitting at 1.355%, as early as this week. As the risk free rate approaches the 2% level, we'll begin to see notable pressure on equity prices according to Morgan Stanley, with the Nasdaq at risk of a 22% correction, and the S&P at risk of an 18% correction. This report was a couple months ago, so I imagine the downside has increased since then, as we're now at new ATH's. It seems like markets will never crash, but that's simply not the case. Markets will correct, and maybe even crash. When it happens I won't say I told you so, but I also won't be remotely surprised. What I'll be doing is holding a fat cheque. The Vix is testing the post March low again, and we're looking at a sub 20's open for the first time since November, when we had that relentless short squeeze bonanza/gap parade. I recently read that long positioning in the Vix is currently in the 95th percentile, while short positioning is back to pre-march crash levels. It's no secret that HF's and the Fed themselves are short Vix. Jerome Powell himself said in 2012, that the Fed has a short position in Vix. So when we feel like we're directly fighting the Fed and market makers when we go long Vix, it's because we are. I'm still holding all of my positions, and have no intention of closing them anytime soon for those who might be wondering. If we see further weakness in the Vix, my strategy is to day trade leveraged longs with tight stops, to cushion my premiums. You guys will be the first to know how and when I begin to work my position. It's Family Day up here in Ontario, so I'll be running some errands, and continuing the weekend festivities with my wife and cats. I'll be back tomorrow with my usual live analysis. Good luck out there today, my friends! Cheers, Michael. *The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
TVC:US10YShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
5
Global Markets See Eight Straight Days of GainsAfter an ugly close yesterday, the US majors are rebounding with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq, all up around 0.50%, and the Russell up 0.80% on Wednesday morning. European markets are essentially flat, with Asian markets catching a bid. The Hang Seng was up by as much as 2% at 8:45AM. Consumer Inflation data came in moments ago; CPI came in lower than anticipated at 0.3% vs 0.4% expected, with Core CPI coming in flat vs 0.2% expected. With CPI finally showing some signs of life, maybe the Fed will consider letting yields rise naturally, so markets can finally correct? Don't hold your breath, folks. Powell is set to speak at 2PM this afternoon, so let's see what he has to say about the "recovering" labour market, and if he mentions rates/the future outlook on the economy. Platinum is is on an absolute tear and is up almost 5% today, tagging a 4th straight day of gains, along with Copper, and Palladium, which are also catching a bid today, and up around 1.75%. Gold is holding onto the week's gains, and is still hovering around 1844/oz. In crypto, Bitcoin is seeing some weakness after tagging a 48k handle yesterday. We're now back at 45,500, with Ether trading at 1732.99, and down around 2% on the day. The Dollar (DXY) is seeing further weakness this morning after falling back to a 90 handle yesterday. We're sitting at 90.30, and holding up well just below the neckline in the IHS pattern. Vix is holding on to a 21 handle for dear life. We're seeing a tight range here near the post March crash lows, and we look poised for another near term spike, when markets finally realize valuations are in outer space. We may be seeing the LOW. In Cannabis, The HMMJ is booming, and is up over 100% since Jan 1. Companies like Aphria, Canopy Growth, and Aurora Cannabis, are seeing massive gains off the back of rolling short squeezes in the highest beta stocks, and optimism over the prospect of near term profitability in the Cannabis sector. With the cost per gram of dry bud falling, and costs of production dropping, Canopy says they may see profit as early as 2022. We all know the Cannabis space is going to be a multi-hundred billion dollar a year industry, and these guys are the main players. There are others, and we'll see a lot of action when the US legalizes, but for now these companies are the main beneficiaries of the recent flows, and are now looking overvalued. The HMJI is one way to profit off an imminent correction as an inverse ETN on the global Cannabis basket. On SPY, we'll be looking at the 21EMA (h) to break (388.74), before we get any notable pull back, with the upper band of the green channel now acting as support around 391. The bulls really don't have any excuses, 400 is right there, and no one is selling. I'd be surprised if we didn't melt up to 400 as early as today. Once we hit that level, though, I expect a massive correction down to the 350 level, and then 323. If this Feb Opex is anything like last years, we're in for one hell of a repricing of risk by month end. February 19th is the day to watch, and the monthly doji preceding last years crash, looks an awful lot like January's doji. Let's see how it plays out. Thanks for your time today guys, and I hope you enjoyed the analysis. Cheers! Michael. *The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
9
US Futures Take A Breather on TuesdayUS Futures drifted lower overnight, after seeing new all-time high's, with the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq all down around 0.15%. European and Asian markets traded mixed, with the DAX and IBEX 35 (Spain) getting hit the hardest, and down around 0.50%, and 1.10% respectively. With mega tech struggling to see gains in the previous couple sessions, we may be seeing signs of the top. Small caps have been on an absolute tear lately, and the Russell is starting to go parabolic off the back of extreme risk on conditions, with the highest beta stocks seemingly the beneficiaries of most of the recent flows. Bitcoin tagged a 48k handle this morning, as investors continued to pile into the asset after Elon Musk's recent bullish move to throw $1.5 Billion into the mix. Ether also caught a notable bid, and showed an 1800 handle, before cooling off to around 1741. The dollar (DXY) is getting hammered today, after we tested the 100 day MA (91.75) on Friday, and we're now sitting around 90.65, with the 50 day MA (90.45) acting as interim support. The 10Y yield is holding on to recent gains, but after testing a high of 1.20%, we're back at a 1.14% handle. We're still chipping along above the major MA's with the 21 day EMA acting as first support. The Vix is up around 3% as we approach the open, but we're still looking incredibly cheap at a 21 handle. We're seeing support near the post March crash lows, but as I mentioned yesterday, we lost the key ascending trendline sitting around 23. The question on my mind at this stage is: when are investors going to start participating again, and with a potential increase in market depth in the near term (after the stimulus proposal narrative is exhausted), will this be another sell-the-news event, and will the Vix go back to a 30 handle? I think the logical answer is yes, but I also think we'll need to see the stimulus passed before we get any sort of meaningful correction. The metals (barring Palladium) continue to rally hard on rising rates, and dollar weakness, while higher than expected inflation around the corner is also pushing Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Copper to new high's. It appears everything is on the table for bidding when inflation is driving, so hold on to your hats as a potential stagflationary era emerges. Although, I would say - rising prices, and a weak economy/labour market is not something we're necessarily new to. Finally, SPY is looking very toppy after tagging a 390 handle, and we're looking at an hourly RSI of 75 at the moment, showing extreme overbought conditions. Having tested the top of the channel at 390, and with the subsequent rejection we were issued, we may finally be seeing the last new ATH... Thanks for your time today guys! Head over to www.hedgeoftheworld.com for our live analysis to begin shortly. Cheers, Michael. *The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
4
VIX is getting ready for another HUGE PUMP UP!Another volatility spike is coming soon.Athought stock market indicies CME_MINI:ES1! CBOT_MINI:YM1! CME_MINI:NQ1! rising another all time high CBOE:VIX sitting on its support at 20 very stubbornly. That indicatates there are still doubts about market a and global economy recovery... What is TVC:VIX ? Its realtime market index calculated by CBOE and its derived from price of put options of TVC:SPX . Its represent "market" expectation of 30-day forward volatility. By TVC:VIX you can measure market risk, fear and stress in the stockmarket. That is why it is also called "Fear index" and you can observe inverse correlation with TVC:SPX If you like the idea, do not forget to support with a 👍 like and follow. Leave a comment that is helpful or encouraging. Let's master the markets together.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tomasgei
2
Back to the moon with UVXY! 🌑 Volatility burts in 3...2...1 🔥Hi mates! Another big move on AMEX:UVXY is coming! Last week there was huge buying in orderflow on AMEX:UVXY . Now 10 - 9.95 its very strong supply zone. We could observe TVC:VIX is rising in tandem with CME_MINI:ES1! AMEX:SPY its not good sign for equities for coming week. My target for this week on AMEX:UVXY is 12.46. Risk / Reward is very favorable on this trade. If you like the idea, do not forget to support with a 👍 like and follow. Leave a comment that is helpful or encouraging. Let's master the markets together.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by Tomasgei
4
Monday Morning Market BriefFutures are trading higher on Monday morning (at new ATH's again), to kick off the second week of February. The S&P tagged a 3900 handle with the democrats $1.9 Trillion dollar stimulus proposal back in focus. We've been discussing stimulus for quite some time now, and it seems the most effective stimulus is the one that never comes, just like the best trade deal with China, was the one that never came. The buy the rumour is the trade of the decade, as traders chase perpetual narratives of hope, and optimism, over valuations, growth, and logic. Crude is catching a bid, and is showing a 60 handle, while the 10Y yield just saw it's highest level in almost a year at 1.20%. We discussed the path that rates are on, and the 10Y yield looks poised to test the 100 MA (w) around 1.355% as early as this week. We're also seeing Bitcoin at new high's around 42k off the back of news that Elon Musk's Tesla has bought over $1 Billion worth of the asset. Gold is rebounding off it's recent low of 1785.13/oz, and as of this morning, we're trading back around 1823/oz. The dollar saw some light selling on Friday after tagging a high of 91.60. We're currently sitting at 91.20 in premarket trade, and looking strong. The Vix is back at a 21 handle, and is seeing some support just below the ascending trendline, which was lost on Thursday last week. We saw a low of 20.90 on Friday, but we've since caught a bid, and we're trading around 21.70 as of 8:30AM. This is among the lowest post March crash lows. The daily RSI appears to be reversing around a 45 handle, but is showing room for further downside in the nearterm, as investors and traders alike, bask in their quasi-inebriated state of euphoria. The Put/Call is showing extreme complacency among investors, as evidenced by recent price action, but we haven't been seeing as many extreme skews as we were before. We're sitting around a .50 handle, with .30 - .50 range setting a strong mold for interim trade/sentiment. Finally, the SPY is set to open around 389, with essentially no resistance overhead, except logic. If the bulls don't show up with strong demand for risk, with participation being as horrible as it is the past few weeks, we may finally be in store for a notable correction. Considering the fact that there is no value in the market, instead of taking on risk via equities, we're taking a closer look at the cryto space, as well as commodities, for near term profitable trading opportunities with a low risk profile. More on this as the week progresses... Thanks for your time today guys! Head on over to www.hedgeoftheworld.com for our live analysis to begin shortly. Cheers, Michael. *The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
13
Carnival of SoulsMarkets have been on an absolute tear this week, and as we kick off the final day of trade for the week, it's important to reflect on what we just witnessed, especialy given last weeks (long awaited) bearish price action. We saw a massive rally this week fueled by stupidity, greed, and fraud, and I'm not convinced we're seeig natural price action off the back of "new investors," most of whom are entering the market with $2000 or less in their account. Yes, they can leverage this to the max, but as we've learned by the 90+% success in market makers books, most of those traders lose all their money in a very short space of time. Except for the past year. Also, volume is showing that next to no one is participating in these melt-ups, and gap-ups. Doing research, fundamental and technical analysis, and other means of making sense of markets, gets you one result in today's market: losses. If you try to make sense of the market, you might want to look at things like individual company valuations, growth rates & market prospects, balance sheets, cash flows, market/ vertical constraints, labour/skill shortages, technical indicators, the strength of the economy, etc. But, all that gets you is on the wrong side of price action, almost guaranteed. It's as if the central banks and market makers have figured out exactly what the market should be doing, and are working morning, noon, and night, to do the polar opposite. Like many of you, this feels personal to me as a career trader. When we see technicals breaking down, and markets showing weakness, we see the Vix spiking, as it should. But, last week we saw the Vix spike over 60%, on a mere 3% pull back. I've never seen that type of reaction from a 3% sell-off in my entire career. But, hey, as you guys know, I was long UVXY, HUV, and short Nasdaq through HQD, and QID. Needless to say it was a fantastic week for my portfolio. Then, suddenly, price action didn't just reverse, but reversed into hyperdrive. We're looking at a scenario this week that reminds me of November, when we saw the Titanic of short squeezes gap markets up almost every single night, without fail. It was a rocket ship, similar to what we're seeing now, and the entire global market "participated." Is all this price action off the back of new investors entering the market? No way. Volume is abysmal. No one is participating in this Ponzi anymore. It's like market makers and central banks are purposely moving price action in the opposite direction to get any contrarians out of the market. Are we so desperate to compete with China, that now we're nationalizing our markets as well, and racing to debase our currency? We used to be hard on China for "currency manipulation." Now it's our favorite pass time? Soon the Fed will own half the indexes, and bond markets as well (like in Japan), and the free market dream will be dead. Imo it's already dead, and the minute the last few bears standing close out their shorts, and risk protection (myself included), markets will then crash, and the market makers will be the only ones short, having taken the opposite side of all (long) trades. If not, we're going to have to start researching life in Zimbabwe to prepare for whats to come over the next 25 years. We can clearly see that rates are rising, with the 10Y yield up over 100% since August 2020, and the dollar is following suit, even though it's worth less than toilet paper in this new reality. When markets are melting up, rates are rising, and the dollar is rising, mean while, the labour market is seeing 800k jobless claims per week, and almost 5 million continuing claims, half of retail stores closed permanently, and businesses are paying their staff with government subsidies, and yet, markets are at all time highs? That's when you know we're in fucking outer space. The fact that government, and market and policy makers seem to think they're doing good (maybe they're just that stupid), by persistently injecting Trillions in "liquidity" into markets, while simultaniously injecting Trillions in "stimulus" into the economy, while the dollar becomes worthless, and the real economy rots from the inside out, is straight up insane to me. The billionaire class has been repeaing all of the rewards from this type of policy, while the middle class takes on more, and more debt, and more, and more risk. The housing market is a massive ponzi, it's entirely made up of near zero interest speculative debt. The slew of Heloc's on top of those mortgages, that are crippling families from spending, really can't see a rate increase, because then half of households will likely go bankrupt, and the houses will become worthless, with next to no buyers qualifying for mortgages. Maybe the Fed will start buying our houses soon? Oh wait, they're already holding like 5 Trillion in mortgage debt through Fannie and Freddie, so what's another 10 or 20 Trillion? I digress... Sorry for the rant today, my friends, but like many of you, I'm simply "Fed" up... I won't be doing a live analysis today, I'm taking the day off to do some research, and will come back refreshed on Monday with a new solution to this direct attack on logic. I'm not taking this lying down anymore. Have a great weekend everyone! Cheers, Michael. *The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
41
SPY Rejection (Again) at White Channel ResistanceHey guys, sorry I missed you yesterday, I had a busy day of meetings and was away from my desk. Let's get right into it this morning. US Futures are struggling to hold on to the (weak) overnight gains, which saw the majors bounce between quarter and half a percentage point as of 8:30AM. We saw jobless claims come in hot at 779k claims, but better than the 825k expected, along with 4.592MM continuing claims. I love how analysts are still expecting over 800k claims each week, while they simultaniously, and almost unanimously, suggest that the economy has recovered. When all this debt binging ends, (if ever), and stimulus payments aren't enough to replace GDP, what then? NIRP? According to the ECB, banks should start preparing for NIRP. I guess the ignorance at the central banking level knows no bounds. On another note, unit labour costs came in more than double the expected 3.3%, at 6.8%. Vix continues to get battered, and is back at the ascending support trendline, and descending green dotted trendline, which went from resistance to support on Jan 27th. We should see strong demand for risk protection at these levels, especially considering the dollar (DXY) is extending it's recent breakout, and hit a new high of 91.485 moments ago. We're now seeing some light selling as we approach the open. But, with rates (10Y yield is retesting the recent highs, and we saw a 1.155% print earier this morning, before pairing some gains), and the dollar gaining momentum, we may continue to see pressure on bond markets, and equity valuations in the near term. Gold has lost the 200 day MA ($1,851.32), and is looking quite bearish at the moment around $1,819/oz. We're in a medium term descending channel, and the recent low is back in play at $1,764.73. Silver is also taking a beating, with the SLV back at a 24 handle, after hitting a 27 handle on Monday. Bitcoin is looking strong, but also may be topping, as we revisited a 38k handle this morning, while Ether almost caught a $1700 handle earlier on. SPY continued it's rebound yesterday, with another solid, but short lived retest of the upper band of the white channel (around 383.70). The 21 day EMA, is sitting at 377.60, and barring a break above the white channel, this is the next logical target, which suggests a notable pull back in the immediate term. We're also seeing quite a few light supports on the hourly, with the 21EMA (h) at 380.64, the the 50 MA (h) at 379.16, and the 200MA (h) at 376.87. The lower band of the white channel is now sitting around 372, and has seen persistently heavy support at this level. This is my target for EOW. We look poised to open near the gamma neutral zone, around 383, and we'll see if upper white channel resistance can hold off the infinitely deep pocketed bulls. If the bears successfully defend this level, we're going lower... Thanks for your time today guys, and I hope you enjoyed the analysis! Stay tuned for our live daily play-by-play to begin shortly at www.hedgeoftheworld.com Cheers, Michael. *The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
14