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SPY Rejection (Again) at White Channel ResistanceHey guys, sorry I missed you yesterday, I had a busy day of meetings and was away from my desk. Let's get right into it this morning. US Futures are struggling to hold on to the (weak) overnight gains, which saw the majors bounce between quarter and half a percentage point as of 8:30AM. We saw jobless claims come in hot at 779k claims, but better than the 825k expected, along with 4.592MM continuing claims. I love how analysts are still expecting over 800k claims each week, while they simultaniously, and almost unanimously, suggest that the economy has recovered. When all this debt binging ends, (if ever), and stimulus payments aren't enough to replace GDP, what then? NIRP? According to the ECB, banks should start preparing for NIRP. I guess the ignorance at the central banking level knows no bounds. On another note, unit labour costs came in more than double the expected 3.3%, at 6.8%. Vix continues to get battered, and is back at the ascending support trendline, and descending green dotted trendline, which went from resistance to support on Jan 27th. We should see strong demand for risk protection at these levels, especially considering the dollar (DXY) is extending it's recent breakout, and hit a new high of 91.485 moments ago. We're now seeing some light selling as we approach the open. But, with rates (10Y yield is retesting the recent highs, and we saw a 1.155% print earier this morning, before pairing some gains), and the dollar gaining momentum, we may continue to see pressure on bond markets, and equity valuations in the near term. Gold has lost the 200 day MA ($1,851.32), and is looking quite bearish at the moment around $1,819/oz. We're in a medium term descending channel, and the recent low is back in play at $1,764.73. Silver is also taking a beating, with the SLV back at a 24 handle, after hitting a 27 handle on Monday. Bitcoin is looking strong, but also may be topping, as we revisited a 38k handle this morning, while Ether almost caught a $1700 handle earlier on. SPY continued it's rebound yesterday, with another solid, but short lived retest of the upper band of the white channel (around 383.70). The 21 day EMA, is sitting at 377.60, and barring a break above the white channel, this is the next logical target, which suggests a notable pull back in the immediate term. We're also seeing quite a few light supports on the hourly, with the 21EMA (h) at 380.64, the the 50 MA (h) at 379.16, and the 200MA (h) at 376.87. The lower band of the white channel is now sitting around 372, and has seen persistently heavy support at this level. This is my target for EOW. We look poised to open near the gamma neutral zone, around 383, and we'll see if upper white channel resistance can hold off the infinitely deep pocketed bulls. If the bears successfully defend this level, we're going lower... Thanks for your time today guys, and I hope you enjoyed the analysis! Stay tuned for our live daily play-by-play to begin shortly at www.hedgeoftheworld.com Cheers, Michael. *The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
14
SPY at White Channel ResistanceI'm away from my desk today guys, as I have a few meetings, but I wanted to share an idea nevertheless. The rocket ship appears to be running out of fuel around the gamma neutral zone (383), and the top of the white channel, where we saw 5 houly rejections in a row yesterday afternoon. AMZN and GOOG beat on earnings after the market close yesterday, and yet, futures are relatively flat this morning. Will we finally see a (notable) correction this week, after some light turbulence last week? God I hope so...
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
36
Stocks Rise on Tuesday, Stimulus & Earnings in FocusThe US majors are extending yesterday's gains with European and Asian markets up across the board, and leading the way. The S&P broke above the 21 day EMA in the overnight session, after seeing a rejection during yesterday's cash market. You guys know the game - when bears go to sleep, central banks show up and raid the barn. I see no reason for the continued irrational exuberance today, and so I suspect we're seeing the last of the interim bounce, which will quickly reverse by EOD/tomorrow. The Dollar (DXY) continues to break out, and although we may see a retest of the neckline around 90.75, we're likely going much higher in the near term, as traders continue to digest the repetitive, but weakening "hope" and "optimism" driven narratives, spoon fed to them by the media each day. We're seeing Vix take a breather at a 27 handle, and we're sitting just north of the highway of MA's on the hourly. As we mentioned yesterday, it's possible we trade in a tight range here, while markets exaust the last of the dip buying. We're seeing notably less euphoria over in the WSB crowd, with many of the most shorted names significantly off their recent high's, and heading lower. After hitting an 8 year high, Silver is taking a beating today, and is down almost 10% since yesterday's open. Needless to say, when the clearing houses raised Robinhood's deposit requirements 10-fold overnight recently, they proved to the world that margin is a weapon, and it's controlled, operated, and managed by the clearing house, not the investor, and not the broker. Some of us in the industry understand this, as we've seen this type of behaviour in the past, but many traders are not aware of the power of clearing houses. They mistakenly blamed Robinhood, who had no choice in the matter. Traders should be extremely cautious with their leverage right now in a market which has become more corrupt and fraudulent with each passing day. Amazon and Alphabet release earnings after the close, and I expect to see a blow out quarter, as usual. With these 2 giants potentially seeing some flows later/tomorrow, and possibly raising the tide for all boats this week, we may see further pressure on Vix. We'll have to wait and see what the numbers look like, and then reassess our outlook based on the technicals/ prevailing sentiment. Lastly, with Democrats threatening to move ahead with their $1.9 Trillion stimulus proposal without the support of Republicans, we should see a slew of MSM headlines today about how awesome this proposal is going to be, and how it will change everything for average American households. Republicans are offering up a measly $600 Billion proposal, which I imagine is just a formality, as Democrats now have control of the congress, senate, and white house. Crazy fact of the day: According to Zero Hedge, over 75% of companies in the S&P have beat earnings expectations in the past 4 quarters in a row. 84% have beat in the most recent quarter. What pandemic? Thanks for your time today guys, and I hope you enjoyed the analysis! Stay tuned for our live play-by-play to begin shortly. Cheers, Michael. *The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
25
IWM Rejection at the 21 day EMA?Global futures are rebounding on Monday after a bearish close on Friday, and the worst week for markets since October. The SPY is catching a strong bounce off the 50 day MA, and is working its way toward the 21 day EMA at 376.80 as we approach the open. I expect to see strong resistance here, and a continuation of the downtrend from last week, toward the 50 day MA at 370.80. The Nasdaq ( QQQ ) is poised to open above it's 21 day EMA , also, which is sitting around 317.56. If QQQ sees a rejection at the open, our first target is the 50 day MA at 309. On the Russell (IWM ), we're currently trading above the 21 day EMA, with the 50 day MA sitting around 196.56. The Vix is seeing some pressure at the moment, as the indexes rebound. But, we're looking strong at a 31 handle as of 9AM. I suspect we may be nearing the lows of the week, with Vix about to see another leg higher, possibly to a 40 handle by Friday. The dollar ( DXY ) is notably higher this morning, and is approaching a 91 handle. We're testing the neckline again, and may be on the verge of a break out. Bitcoin is still holding on to some of it's recent gains; we're currently trading at a 33k handle, and flat on day. Keep an eye on Silver today, as the WSB crowd continues to hammer the most shorted securities, of which, Silver seems to be the latest focus. SLV was up over 9% in pre-market trade. Looking at the week ahead, according to Robert Greil, Chief Strategist at Merck Finck Privatbankiers AG, "Markets will concentrate again on the really important developments: ongoing vaccination and therefore brightening outlooks regarding re-openings with increasing activity, paving the way for pent-up demand driving the economic recovery.” I literally laughed when I read this quote. He may as well have said, "everything is awesome, so investors are feeling pretty awesome, and we'll see something happen this week that's awesome." You'll rarely ever hear a negative outlook from the sell-side; their job is to acquire, and keep your money invested. Just something to keep in mind when you're reading about, or discussing different market outlooks. Thanks for your time today guys, and I hope you enjoyed the analysis! Check us over at the Hedge of the World website for our live daily play-by-play. Cheers, Michael. *The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY , HUV , HQD , QID .
AMEX:IWMShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
6
QQQ Bounce to 21 day EMA, Rejection Next?The Nasdaq ( QQQ ) is poised to open above it's 21 day EMA, which is sitting around 317.56. If QQQ sees a rejection at the open, our first target is the 50 day MA at 309. On the Russell ( IWM ), we're currently trading above the 21 day EMA in pre-market, with the 50 day MA sitting around 196.56. SPY is also seeing a bounce toward the 21 day EMA, where we expect to see a rejection. The Vix is seeing some pressure at the moment, as the indexes rebound. But, we're looking strong at a 31 handle as of 9AM. I suspect we may be nearing the lows of the week, with Vix about to see another leg higher, possibly to a 40 handle by Friday. The dollar ( DXY ) is notably higher this morning, and is approaching a 91 handle. We're testing the neckline again, and may be on the verge of a break out. Bitcoin is still holding on to some of it's recent gains; we're currently trading at a 33k handle, and flat on day. Keep an eye on Silver today, as the WSB crowd continues to hammer the most shorted securities, of which, Silver seems to be the latest focus. SLV was up over 9% in pre-market trade. Looking at the week ahead, according to Robert Greil, Chief Strategist at Merck Finck Privatbankiers AG, "Markets will concentrate again on the really important developments: ongoing vaccination and therefore brightening outlooks regarding re-openings with increasing activity, paving the way for pent-up demand driving the economic recovery.” I literally laughed when I read this quote. He may as well have said, "everything is awesome, so investors are feeling pretty awesome, and we'll see something happen this week that's awesome." You'll rarely ever hear a negative outlook from the sell-side; their job is to acquire, and keep your money invested. Just something to keep in mind when you're reading about, or discussing different market outlooks. Thanks for your time today guys, and I hope you enjoyed the analysis! Check us over at the Hedge of the World website for our live daily play-by-play. Cheers, Michael. *The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY , HUV , HQD , QID .
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
2
SPY Poised to Retest 21 Day EMA as ResistanceGlobal futures are rebounding on Monday after a bearish close on Friday, and the worst week for markets since October. The SPY is catching a strong bounce off the 50 day MA, and is working its way toward the 21 day EMA at 376.80 as we approach the open. I expect to see strong resistance here, and a continuation of the downtrend from last week, toward the 50 day MA at 370.80. The Nasdaq (QQQ) is poised to open above it's 21 day EMA, also, which is sitting around 317.56. If QQQ sees a rejection at the open, our first target is the 50 day MA at 309. On the Russell (IWM), we're currently trading above the 21 day EMA in pre-market, with the 50 day MA sitting around 196.56. The Vix is seeing some pressure at the moment, as the indexes rebound. But, we're looking strong at a 31 handle as of 9AM. I suspect we may be nearing the lows of the week, with Vix about to see another leg higher, possibly to a 40 handle by Friday. The dollar (DXY) is notably higher this morning, and is approaching a 91 handle. We're testing the neckline again, and may be on the verge of a break out. Bitcoin is still holding on to some of it's recent gains; we're currently trading at a 33k handle, and flat on day. Keep an eye on Silver today, as the WSB crowd continues to hammer the most shorted securities, of which, Silver seems to be the latest focus. SLV was up over 9% in pre-market trade. Looking at the week ahead, according to Robert Greil, Chief Strategist at Merck Finck Privatbankiers AG, "Markets will concentrate again on the really important developments: ongoing vaccination and therefore brightening outlooks regarding re-openings with increasing activity, paving the way for pent-up demand driving the economic recovery.” I literally laughed when I read this quote. He may as well have said, "everything is awesome, so investors are feeling pretty awesome, and we'll see something happen this week that's awesome." You'll rarely ever hear a negative outlook from the sell-side; their job is to acquire, and keep your money invested. Just something to keep in mind when you're reading about, or discussing different market outlooks. Thanks for your time today guys, and I hope you enjoyed the analysis! Check us over at the Hedge of the World website for our live daily play-by-play. Cheers, Michael. *The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
15
UVXY Potential This idea varies from my other ideas because I focus primarily on the fundamentals instead of the technicals. Details are provided on chart. I plan on purchasing shares, not options, due to the low price. From a macro perspective, this upcoming 1-3 months may possess an immense amount of volatility. I will keep this idea updated, as I don't plan on longing quite yet; I'm interested to see what the $900bn stimulus check will do. But as always, do your own DD. Happy trading!
CBOE:UVXYLong
by tacosaucewalkin
7
Face/OffGlobal futures are tanking again on Friday morning, with the US majors down around 0.8% pre-market. We're seeing a sea of red across Europe and Asia as well, with the DAX, CAC40, FTSE100, and Hang Seng all down around 1.5%. Vix is catching a strong bid this morning, and is back at a 33 handle and up around 12% pre-market. The short squeeze bonanza continues this morning, with hedge funds suffering max pain, as retail investors trample on their shorts, one by one, and in carefully coordinated fashion. As we mentioned yesterday in our analysis, "As hedge funds continue to suffer massive losses from these running short squeezes, they're forced to liquidate their long positions in the most loved companies. This could be why we're seeing broader market weakness this morning despite strong quarterly earnings reports." The dollar (DXY) is trading flat, and hovering between the descending trendline, and IHS neckline just above. A break above the neckline could put major pressure on risk assets. The 10Y yield is blowing up this morning after a strong bounce near the 50 day MA. We're now back above the 21 day EMA, and sitting around 1.09%. In Crypto, Bitcoin is soaring after Elon Musk tweeted about the asset, and changed his Twitter description to simply "#Bitcoin". At 3AM on the dot, Bitcoin went parabolic, and rose by as much as 15%, back to a $37k handle. Maybe the SEC may want to look into this? Wait, who? While crypto's are soaring, so is good ole' original money, Gold. We saw a strong bounce off the 200 day MA at $1,849/oz, and we're up 1.5% on the day, and sitting at $1,870. Needless to say, we're seeing a risk off mood across the board as we approach the cash open. Key levels to watch today on SPY are the 21 day EMA at 377.47 for strong resistance, and the 50 day MA, sitting at 370.55, for strong support. The 50 is actually overlapping the lower band of the white channel. If bears capture this level, the almighty megaphone is back play, around 361. As I write, we're getting panic bid towards the 21 day EMA. Let's see what the hedge funds have to say today in rebuttle to the WSB crowd. Thanks for your time today guys, and I hope you enjoyed the analysis. If you'd like to follow the price action all day, join us over at the Hedge of the World website for our live daily play-by-play. Have a great weekend! Cheers, Michael. *The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY , HUV, HQD, QID.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
6
Futures Mixed After Wednesday Market MassacreIt was a massacre yesterday with global markets tanking in upwards of 3.5%, as the most shorted stocks continued to skyrocket on pure stupidity. The S&P500 saw an overnight session low of 3,703.75, which is the bottom of our white channel, and where the 50 day MA is sitting on our SPY chart. We mentioned in our analysis yesterday, that if the 200MA (h) broke, which it did, that we could see a test of this level. We're seeing a notable bounce here in pre-market trade but we're a mile below the important 21 day EMA, which should now act as resistance. Vix saw a 37 handle in aftermarket trade yesterday, and ended the day up a whopping 61%. As hedge funds continue to suffer massive losses from these running short squeezes, they're forced to liquidate their long positions in the most loved companies. This could be why we're seeing broader market weakness this morning despite strong quarterly earnings reports. We saw Apple, Tesla, and Facebook post mixed earnings, however Apple saw beats across the board, and is still trading down around 1.5% pre-market. Tesla is suffering after an ugly earnings report, which also lacked forward guidance, we're down aroun 4%. Facebook is still losing members rapidly, and apparently sees difficult times ahead, also. This is putting some pressure on the stock, even though they beat on revenue. We're currently down around half a percent. European and Asian markets continued to sell off today, with the FTSE down around 0.85%, and the Hand Seng down by as much as 2.5%. Jobless claims came in better than expected because all you have to do is raise the expectations, right? 847K Americans filed for first time jobless benefits last week, with 4.77 million continuing claims. Q4 GDP came in weaker than expected at 4% vs 4.4% expected. Wholesale and Retail inventories rose modestly by 1% and 0.1% respectively. In rates, the 10Y yield is sitting around 1.02% after hitting a session low of 0.998%. We're sitting just above the 50 day MA at .963%, and I expect a potential test of this level in the interim, before we continue to trend upward. The dollar (DXY) is poised to open near the key neckline in our IHS around 90.75, which I remind traders is above the longterm descending resistance trendline, which we broke through yesterday with conviction. The Put/Call is sitting around .50 as we approach the open, and is incredibly skewed considering the day we had yesterday. Traders clearly don't think this is a real correction. For most traders sake, I hope they're right. Gold is catching a bid this morning, and we're up around half a percent. Bitcoin remains in a strong downtrend, but is catching a bid this morning, also, and is up around 4%. We're seeing strong support at the 50 day MA, so we may see further upside into the final day of trade for the week, tomorrow. We'll be watching the SPY closely for a break below the 50 day MA, which would also see the white channel break. If I dare say it, I'm going to call the top of the megaphone as the next major support, and my friends, if it breaks, the 100 day MA (354.90) comes into play, and then it's straight shot to 340, and then the 200 day MA at 333.50. Resistance overhead at the 21 day EMA. Thanks for your time today guys, I hope you enjoyed the analysis. Don't forget to join us over at the Hedge of the World website as we disseminate the day's price action in our live daily play-by-play to begin shortly. Remember, expect the unexpected. Cheers, Michael. *The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
5
UVXY - Bullish Indicators lighting upUVXY has seen a big spike today of over 30%. With a lot going on in the market which we all know should be fundamentally lower, its time to see a correction. UVXY has trended downwards in a falling wedge, normally breakout pattern is upwards, and fast. UVXY has the following bullish indicators: 1) Golden Cross: The MA50 (50 day moving average - blue line) is crossing up and over the MA100 (100 day moving average - red line). This is a major bullish indicator if this stays the course. 2) Falling Wedge Pattern broken, need the candle to finish for the week, to see if we will stay bullish. 3) Bullish Engulfing Candle (needs to finish the 1W candle first) Once confirmed, we should see some good movement.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by Shwayze
2
UVXY / VIX Bull CaseUVXY has a microphone formation (higher highs, lower lows), signifying a potential breakout soon. In my opinion, not if, but when $VIX closes above 25 and doesn't reject it instantly, letting it settle above for more than a day, we're going to see VIX rise exponentially fast. We got a taste of it Monday morning. I think VIX will hit 50 very soon given all the risks of the market. I've purchased call on UVXY exp 2/19 @ 10.5 strike today, representing 5% of my portfolio. I'll buy on any dips in the next week, and if VIX hasn't budged by then I'll roll my calls forward to 3/19. The market is extremely overextended and needs a correction. Every extra day without a downward move we will have a more violent move: SPY at top 5% of overbought areas in the last 34 yrs SPY at valuation levels higher than any other time period other than pre/post 2008 and 2000 crashes. This is despite earnings being face-value "great" this week Earnings have been stellar from tech companies and other industries, however reactions have been very muted yet option pricing for downside starting to cost more Ushering in a new administration presents inherent unknowns. Unkowns = volatility potential Literally no more industries to rotate into as each have increased at historically overextended rates and have even subdivided everything from Crypto, EV, Weed, BLM, COVID, Stay at home, Tech, Solar, Oil, etc to continually try to rotate gains Lastly, we have a mania caused by redditors blowing up stocks to prices > 5000% inherent value. Bubbles appearing in certain names and when they start to pop, they will bring much of the market down with them. Since these bubbles popping will inherently be violent, the markets they drag will be violent as well, and that will cascade across most asset classes. Volatility risks are everywhere. Keep your portfolio safe and get into a volatility hedge soon.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by OfficialArcher
7