SPY Ready For Sell Off?Since economic data means nothing anymore, and since the market is no longer has any connection to the economy, I guess we can rely on TA...?
Who knows. It seems like the S&P has hit a ceiling as of now at the 200MA. RSI is high on the 1D. MACD has PLENTY of room to come down. Let's see what happens.. it could be a red September.
UVXY
SPY S&P SPX - Selling SoonHere we are in this bounce in the markets. We are seeing lower highs, lower lows. It is the best time to get into a position now. If you look at the timelines from peak to sell, its about 2-months. We're about overbought, and the economic data coming out is pretty horrible. Retail, autos, housing, buying and consumer sentiment, debt, revolving credit, personal debt... all these point to pain in the short term.
Look at the 2/10YR inversion, which is surpassing passed recessions. Even the 3-month is far surpassing the 30YR. Cracks are forming everywhere and we are starting to see defaults and bankruptcies become a reality. Even IF the Fed softens and pivots, it wont make a difference. Statistics are showing that people are barely scraping by. Don't be caught off guard! Look at the data, not the delusional hosts on CNBC which will never admit the truth until we are deep in a crisis.
This sell off or "crash" is a bit different than other ones. With most of the economic data worse off than 2008, the markets are not reflecting the economy whatsoever. The markets should be far lower, but, it seems that intervention of some sort is taking place... for how long, its to be seen. I would have liked to see a drop of 30%, rebound of 10%, 40% in wave 2, rebound of 15% but it seems like like markets are declining far slower than logical economists thought.
Dow Jones - DIA DJIBoy, are these markets something else. Since before 2008, markets correlated relatively close to economic data. Since the introduction of Fed intervention with slashed rates and Quantitative Easing, "markets" were able to "shrug" off even the worst geopolitical and economic events. In fact, it defies all logic.
Logically, markets can and should ignore all TA when an economy is hurting significantly. There isn't a bright spot in the economic data. The consumer is badly beaten and barely holding on. Discretionary spending, credit card debt, personal debt, consumer sentiment, and consumer confidence show us that the average American is at their limit for what they can spend and do. A new study showed that 1 in 4 Americans are skipping Thanksgiving Dinner altogether because of the costs. Keep in mind the collapsing retail, collapsing freight by sea, and now the threat of rail strikes in December which is quickly becoming a reality.
This of course is one of countless statistics that show the pain of average American. Other statistics show savings rates have plummeted and credit card debt is at record levels as people's pay-checks are no longer covering their expenditures.
We've about peaked in this market, looking at a double top from August 2022.. but again, TA doesn't matter as it did before. MACD and RSI have PLENTY of room on the downside. Look at the economic data, even the TA for the short term and position accordingly.
This chart can and will most likely reflect majority of stocks from S&P, Nasdaq, QQQ, SPY, IWM or Russell 2000.
Don't Fall for VIX Volatility Dead Cat Bounce“Happiness was never important.
The problem is that we don't know what we really want. What makes us happy is not to get what we want.
But to dream about it. Happiness is for opportunists.
So I think that the only life of deep satisfaction is a life of eternal struggle, especially struggle with oneself.
If you want to remain happy, just remain stupid.
Authentic masters are never happy; happiness is a category of slaves.”
UVXY double bottom? MaybeI hate to attempt to predict UVXY price action but the FED news was semi bearish, and Powell has COVID right after China had an outbreak a month ago. Is this deja vu of Jan 2020? If we can hold above this yellow line while the overall market goes side ways or tanks I think we can at least get a relief rally. If we get an unfortunate news via earnings or another black swan, this could be the bottom. Not financial advice, DYOR.
VIX Futures - Oversold - INCOMING SURGEEvery time RSI has reached the 30 level it has bounced aggressively. With the recent fall of #kingdollar, stocks & crypto spike, & $VIX crush, I expect a REVERSAL PATTERN with a SURGE IN VOLATILITY. If margin calls get triggered we could see a MASSIVE WATERFALL SELLOFF in RISK "assets". Protect your #kingdollar. HEDGED with for CRISIS with $UVIX $UVXY. GL.
VVIX Lowest ADX Reading in History - WARNINGThe weekly ADX indicator is sitting at 8 (NO TREND) at the same time VVIX reached it's lowest value since March 2017. EXTREME COMPLACENCY can be presumed. A market without fear is DANGEROUS. Either markets continue higher in the face of continuing rate hikes & QT or markets SELLOFF & VIX spikes catching everyone offsides. I go with the latter. Expecting VVIX ADX to SURGE WITH $VIX. Protect your #kingdollar. HEDGED for crisis with $UVIX $UVXY. GL
DXY Monthly - King Dollar - ResurgenceThe ADX indicator was rising from 15 (weak trend) to 35 (strong trend) since March 2022 before a recent decline. As the dollar has lost its strength, the ADX rolled over along with RSI. I believe the Dollar will find support here and begin another uptrend. Potentially a violent upswing as the Fed HAS NOT PIVOTED and continues to tighten financial conditions through more rate hikes and continuing QT. The ADX should rise again and I believe beyond the noted resistance of 40. The masses are FOMOing into stocks & crypto yet again with Greed/Fear index at GREED level 63. NAMO/NYMO are also the most elevated in years. $VIX has collapsed to 18 showing FEAR IS ABSENT. A market without fear is DANGEROUS! Protect your #kingdollar as RISK "assets" are primed for a WATERFALL SELLOFF due to over leveraged and over concentrated positions. The DEBT BUBBLE IMPLOSION is near. GL.
Volatility jump incoming.The turquoise trace matches nicely for the spacial orientation of the recent level behavior.
The indicators (Momentum on top, and RSI on the bottom) also appear to match each other, in-phase.
SP500 crashing now? I think it has already begun! :)
Follow along for updates to this idea, and many more!
Good Luck, God Speed, love & Light to All!
Vix is going to explodeI’m short by other means, not uvxy, but I don’t think this market is up here much longer lol.
Vix is going through price compression, positive divergences, and an inside bar formed on daily after support from the 200 week ma. The symmetrical triangle pattern is coming to an end, and the market is going to get ripped to shreds. I’ll make a prediction and say in 3 months the vix is over 45