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Do Not Disturb, Drunk on a YachtBoy do I wish that were true. Instead I'm waking up to a freezing cold winter in the North Pole (Canada), and a world on lockdown. It is Friday, though, so I'm in a particularly good mood, and if I must say, watching global markets in the red (for a change), just puts a smile on my face. Yesterday we discussed the potential for further downside, off the back of overbought conditions across multiple timeframes. Overnight, the S&P tested the 100 period MA on the hourly (3644.30), after hitting a session low of 3628.38, just above the gap from Dec 1st. It feels unusual discussing a gap down, as it's been so long since the market has shown any real weakness. I almost forgot what it felt like to see red numbers on the screen on a Friday, but the majors are all down around half a percent, and Vix is up 6% to a 24 handle as we approach the open. According to the financial media, today's sell-off is brought to you by, "Stimulus doubts," and "Disruptive Brexit talks." Nothing to do with the historic valuations, debt, lockdowns, or the crumbling economy I guess. Today we'll be watching the 21 day EMA around 361.80 for initial support, and if sentiment is actually shifting negative, the top of the megaphone at 358.50 is most definitely in play. We could see buy the dippers panic bid markets on the open, but I have a feeling the tank is beginning to run on fumes. The Vix, Rates, the Dollar, and the Put/Call ratio are all showing strength today, so let's see what happens next... As always, I appreciate your time today guys. If you enjoyed today's analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. Cheers, Michael.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
6
The Good, the Bad and the UglyAfter trading essentially sideways overnight, futures are seeing some pressure this morning on a weak Jobless Claims print. Initial Claims came in at 853k vs 720k exp. (the largest weekly rise since March), with Continuing Claims rising for the first time since the crash, to 5.76MM vs a prior print of 5.53MM. CPI came in hotter than expected at 0.2% vs 0.1% exp. no big surprise there. The silver lining in the jobs print was the total number of Americans on some form of unemployment is now sitting below 20 Million. That's something I guess? This print isn't reflecting some of the latest lockdowns, so things are going to get worse into year end. The FDA Panel is voting on Pfizer's new Vaccine, so I suspect a well timed headline may show up to save markets. But, absent a stimulus deal, and an improvement in the real economy, stocks could continue to face downward pressure as we approach EOY. A vaccine approval could also serve as a sell-the-news event, along with any "solution" to the heap of systemic problems facing markets. Clearly every rumour has already been bought, so imo markets are priced to perfection, and can only go down from here. SPY appears poised to gap down to a 364 handle on the open, with the 100 period MA in play around 363.75. I'm keeping an eye on the gap fill from Dec 1st around 362 (just above the 21 day EMA), and the top of the megaphone around 358.50 for signs of support. Absent support at these levels, the bulls could be in real trouble, with a half a dozen gaps waiting to be filled from November's risk binge, and overnight gap parade, sitting just below us. Stay tuned for live updates throughout the day, and thanks for your time today guys! If you enjoyed today's analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. Cheers, Michael.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
19
Of Course I Talk to MyselfHey guys, I hope everyone's having a great week! Let's get right into it today. So the majors saw new all-time high's overnight (again), but appear to be experiencing some weakness as we approach the afternoon session. At the moment, SPY is trading comfortably above the megpahone pattern (and longterm resistance trendline) on the monthly, for the first time in over 9 years. We'll soon find out whether or not this is an outside reversal candle. If it is, I'll be praying for the bulls, because the correction will be epic. But, if it's not, and we continue to melt higher (on persistent dollar debasement), then we'll need to either work our position by hedgeing on the long side with minimal leverage and tight stops, or seek out value through a deep analysis of emerging markets. I would also consider holding off risk all together, and parking some cash in gold and crypto. Personally, crypto carries a bit to much beta for my palate, but I'm always comfortable holding gold or silver. First we would need confirmation that the top of the megaphone has been defeated, and is now acting as support on the monthly. Only then would we adjust our strategy. When you take a look at the SPY on the 3 month timeframe, you'll notice the rsi is in a well defined descending channel, and we're sitting right at the top, where we could see a notable rejection. SPY is at, or nearing overbought levels across every timeframe, which could translate into lower returns in the near term. Mean while, the CAPE ratio is also at all-time high's, confirming limited returns over the next 10 years. Therefore, the justification for taking the risk would need to fall back on the shoulders of the "hope and optimism/recovery," narrative, with the real underlying mechanism driving prices higher, being dollar debasement (inflation). Jobless claims are out tomorrow, so it's going to be very interesting to see how markets react, considering we rallied last week after a colossal miss, and an ugly print. We all know markets rally on bad news, good news, and no news. Trade accordingly. Stay tuned for live updates throughout the day, and thanks for your time today guys! If you enjoyed our analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. Cheers, Michael.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
44
BUY $UVXY - NR Picks Dec 06EN: The investment seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to one and one-half times (1.5x) the performance of the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index for a single day. The index seeks to offer exposure to market volatility through publicly traded futures markets and is designed to measure the implied volatility of the S&P 500 over 30 days in the future. We view levels 11 - 12 as key for the remainder of the year and some volatility could be observed in the following weeks considering the market situation that reached all-time highs in recent weeks. ES: Este índice busca ofrecer exposición a la volatilidad del mercado a través de los mercados de futuros que cotizan en bolsa y está diseñado para medir la volatilidad implícita del S&P 500 durante 30 dÍas en el futuro. Consideramos los niveles 11 - 12 como claves para lo que queda del año y se podría observar algo de volatilidad en las siguientes semanas considerando la coyuntura del mercado que alcanzo máximos históricos en las últimas semanas.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by NewroadTrader
The Revolution Will Be Not Be Price Targeted by WedbushSo here's what I see. A prolonged bottom/scallop happening much like previous lulls before huge pops. STOCH RSI doing that little bottom hook thing, VIX putting in its resurrection at 20, a frothy AF PCE, general blatant greed and plenty of Dan Ives price targets. Honestly, what gets me here is the the amount of digging that has already been done with the VIX and UVXY. Sure, we could see 10 or maybe 8, but this isn't quantum physics or a magical vaporized toad venom journey. They are limitations to how deep this can go. I applaud the full volatility retrace; well played. But the risk reward seems right here, just as it did to short the top in March. I see the VIX just chilling with small bullish divergences, awaiting its time in the sun once again. UVXY is the most effective leveraged mutant horse to fly as close to the sun as possible. Michael Jordan once said the point is to make the best trade, money is secondary, AND you miss 100% of the UVXY trades you don't take (you also miss 99% of the ones you do take). The risk here is the VIX and UVXY sit around and your money decays like the stardust in your blood. That will probably happen but I'm okay with that for the potential reward of this trade. Money is a concept anyway; my blood and purpose on this earth (shorting stocks Dan Ives puts price targets on) is not.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by horacejunior
2
Gone in 60 SecondsHappy Friday, my friends! Let's get right into it today. So stocks and bonds alike are experiencing some weakness this morning, after November payrolls came in (much) weaker than expected. After a strong September and October with 711k, and 610k jobs added respectively, Novembers print was a massive disappointment (and miss), with just 245k jobs added vs exptations of 450k. This was the lowest print since we rebounded from the crash back in May. The sectors most affected were government with a loss of 86k jobs (as Census employees were rolled off), and also retail which saw 35k jobs lost. It's clear that businesses are already starting to cut costs as we head into what may be a brutal winter season. Unemployment dropped slightly from 6.9% to 6.7%. Let's see how markets react in the cash open, as traders and investors digest increasing labour market weakness. Maybe for a change, bad news will be bad news. Bond yields are spiking, and the 10Y yield appears to be making a run for 1%. We're currently sitting at .96, after a session low of .90 this morning. The majors are up about quarter of a percentage point, but seeing some notable weakness as we approach the cash open. SPY is still moonwalking at all-time high's, and above the megaphone trendine. But, we lost the ascending trendline yesterday at the close, so it's possible the bears finally show up today, and try to recapture the megaphone. I'm expecting December to be an outside reversal candle, with heavy selling as we approach Jan 1. Remember, many of the FED's lending programs expire by EOY, so this could put pressure on risk assets across the classes. Also, many payroll protection programs/unemployement aid, expire in December also, so this could be a bit of a sh*t storm for risk heading into year end. Trade accordingly. As always, stay tuned for live updates throughout the day, and thank you for your time guys! If you enjoyed today's analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. Cheers, Michael.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
47
Goodwill HuntingI read recently that over 80% of all the S&P500's assets are now intangible. It's remarkable the impact that sentiment can have on valuations. I don't think anyone can imagine a scenario where stocks crash 84%. But, if history has taught us anything, it's that sentiment, alone, can accomplish this seemingly impossible feat. The perpetual sense of "hope," delivered to market participants through optimistic narratives, on a daily basis, is certainly helping the cause. In a recent report, Jared Woodard, at Bank of America, mentioned that value investing is dead. At the moment, I have to agree with him. But, only as long rates stay low, and sentiment stays high. Based on my own personal experience, it appears that sentiment injections are slowly losing their potency, and effectiveness. The law of diminishing returns is beginning to rear it's ugly head, and when sentiment eventually shifts to the downside, we all know what happens next. Jobless claims came in better than expected at 712k vs. expectations of 775k, with continuing claims at just over 5.5MM. Pandemic emergency claims continue to rise, and hit an all-time high last week with a print of 4.57MM. The total number of Americans still on some form of unemployment is hovering around 20 million. You won't see that on the news, though. ISM Non-Manufacturing index came in worse than expected at 55.9%, the lowest print since May. LA has just imposed new lock downs, and I'm getting a sense that California may try to take this state-wide at any moment. Most of Europe is on strict curfews and lock downs, but don't tell that to their stock markets, which are barely changed since the news broke. France is a perfect example; the CAC40 was up the day France imposed new lock downs. Simply astonishing. The majors were up marginally on the open, after a stalemate in overnight trading. But, the SPY is currently making another all-time high, as we speak, and is sitting around 368 an hour into the morning session. Hourly RSI is sitting just below 70, showing overbought conditions, and the daily RSI is approaching overbought levels, also, with a 66 handle this morning. Clearly the jobless claims print won't be a catalyst for weakness in risk assets today, but November payrolls are out tomorrow and I'm keen on seeing how the "recovery" progressed in November. Stay tuned for live updates throughout the day, and thanks for your time today guys! If you enjoyed today's analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. Cheers, Michael.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
44
The Bear Sips His WhiskeyAfter a day of trading, the bear sips his whiskey, then decides he's just way too stressed to get friskey. He watches his charts over and over again, and then he shakes his head, before he brushes his teeth and get's ready for bed. His paws are sweaty, and his thoughts are heavy, he knows he's probably gonna dream of that chevy, that he can't afford, because his account looks like a honda accord. He wakes up frantic, and his bed is soaking wet, but not cause he peed, but because of the sweat. He's anxious, he's nervous, he thinks this whole thing is coming down, but whether he's short right now or not, his fur will always be brown. He's a bear, yes he is, and his heart is big, but if the FED shows up one more f*cking time, he may have to find a new gig. But he ain't worried, not even for a second bro, cause the tides a'leaving, and stock are in for a reckoning yo. The bulls will be running scared, and the bears roar will be echoing loud, and if not today, or tomorrow, my fellow bears, this once in a lifetime trade will be soon be ours. Sip.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
41
Raging BullHey guys! Let's get right into it today. So yesterday the bulls successfully broke through 9 year resistance (well done to the bulls), and as we kick-off the final month of trade in what has turned out to be a year for the history books, the bulls will be looking to take full advantage of the (obvious) death of price discovery, and the bear (RIP). The current Put-to-Call ratio proves bears are extinct, with the lowest print I've ever seen my career (0.34 today). By contrast, the next lowest print was in Oct 2007, when we saw 0.42. Seemingly everyone, (except me) has been squeezed out of their shorts, and hedges. Those still holding cash are slowly but surely watching their purchasing power diminish, with the nuclear levels of fiat debasement we're witnessing on a daily basis. Bitcoin and Gold alike show the inflation carnage quite well, as they hover near all-time highs once again. The US majors were up an astonishing 10 - 12% in November alone, (this used to be a solid annual return), and all that off the back of hope, according to the financial media. It's becoming clear that in a market relentlessly beaten beyond recognition, that only the FED and hope matter. Personally, I'm focusing on increasing my income, continuing to utilize excess cash on hand for hedging purposes, and shorting overvalued indexes such as the Nasdaq. I simply refuse to eat the sh*t they keep trying to feed us each day, and if I have to sit on the sidelines until we see proper functioning markets and price discovery again, that's a better solution imo. ISM Manufacturing came in weaker than expected this morning at 57.5% vs 58% exp. Construction spending rose slightly with a print of 1.3% vs expectations of 0.7%. The 10Y yield is still hovering around 0.9%, with the recent breakout smothered by (timely) demand. The Vix continues to get hammered, and we saw a sub 20's print on Friday, for the first time since mid February. Well done to the FED. The message to investors is clear: Don't you dare attempt to manage risk by shorting or hedging. Just sleep... Thanks for your time today guys. If you enjoyed today's analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. Cheers, Michael.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
10
Gap Up Cocktail, With A Short Squeeze PleaseIn a seemingly massive win for the Biden Campaign, Emily Murphy at the GSA (General Services Administration), confirmed that the Trump Administration is ready to move forward with the peaceful transition of power process, in the accordance with the law. I don't know whether or not this is a move to escape the legal nightmare Trump is living each day, or whether he has a final card up his sleeve to somehow hold on to the presidency. More likely than not, Trump is moving on with his life, at least for now. What I found most interesting about the news, though, was the fact that futures spiked almost immediately after. Since when is a Biden victory good for stocks? - If memory serves, Biden was going to raise corporate taxes on millions of small businesses at the worst possible time. - Trump said if Biden won, we'd see the worst depression in history because he would lock down the nation, and cause another market crash. - Biden was going to kill big oil. - Biden was going to face stark opposition on any stimulus proposal he brought forward. - Some experts have said they're expecting stimulus in the realm of $700 Billion; that's not quite $2.2 Trillion. Yet, (global) markets spike on the news that Trump is essentially conceding to Biden. I guess when you can print GDP, who needs an economy? *Takes deep breath* Let's see what's happening over on the SPY: We gapped up on the open to around 360.21, off the back of the GSA news, and we're sitting just above the Megaphone trendline which is now sitting around 357.50. We're also kissing the upper trendline of the triangle/weak (volume) bullish pennant around 361.60. Finally, we're approaching the bottom of the ascending channel formed over the past 7 months or so, now sitting around 362.50. We're outside the megaphone right now, and if we break above for the first time in 9 years, on the monthly, we could see a biblical short squeeze. Just a reminder folks, the end of the month is next Monday. As I said, until we see a clean break of the megaphone on the monthly, I ain't going anywhere... Stay tuned for live updates throughout the day, and thank you for your time today guys. If you enjoyed today's analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. Cheers, Michael.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
37
The Spy Who Shagged MeHey guys, I hope everyone had an awesome weekend. Let's get right into today's analysis: US Futures managed to stage a notable rebound on Sunday night, after an ugly close on Friday when the bulls lost key weekly, and monthly supports. We were up about half a percent into the US cash open, but have since erased most of the overnight gains. Circling the MSM today are interesting headlines about how the Trump administration is distancing themselves from Syndey Powell, who is apparently getting ready to drop a "bombshell" voter fraud lawsuit against Georgia as early as this week. I suspect Trump and his team are trying to create the illusion of distance here so the case seems as independent and unbiased as possible. I wish them luck with that. We're also seeing headlines about more "Vaccine Hopes," which just puts a smile on my face everytime I see this price action narrative. Wash, rince, repeat... In a recent report, JP Morgan analysts, off the back of Goldman's recent report on month-end rebalancing (of over $35 Billion), say they're anticipating an even larger and more vicious sell-off into year end. They're expecting a correction, which they say would position the FED for further easing/dollar debasement into 2021. Total forced selling by year-end is estimated to be over $300 Billion according to the report. Imo this could bring the entire house (of cards) down, with market depth currently the worst it's been since the March crash. SPY is looking particularly fragile today as the bears continue to defend the long-term (megaphone) trendline. But, we all know the bulls are not going anywhere. I suspect if we successfully fill any of the gaps above this week, it will be quickly met with relentless miracle bids. That's not necessarily a bad thing, as the increased volatility could set us up for some fruitful short-term trading opportunities heading into December. I'm watching the 355 level as daily support, as I'm seeing us skipping on top of an ascending triangle formed from the Nov 5th high. If we lose this level, we may see a sharp sell-off down to the 350 area, where the first gap is sitting, along with the top of the previous triangle, and the 21 day EMA at 351.07. That's pretty heavy support, but it's not exactly a stone's throw away from current levels... Stay tuned for live updates throughout the day, and sincere thanks for your viewership guys, I appreciate all the support. If you enjoyed today's analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. Cheers, Michael.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
14
$UVXY - NR Picks Nov 22Este índice busca ofrecer exposición a la volatilidad del mercado a través de los mercados de futuros que cotizan en bolsa y está diseñado para medir la volatilidad implícita del S&P 500 durante 30 días en el futuro. La tesis se sustenta en que podríamos observar algo de volatilidad para los últimos días de noviembre y consideramos que podría darse un impulso hasta los 15, manteniendo el canal de retroceso observado durante los últimos meses. Recordemos que los índices $SPY, $QQQ, $IWM, $DIA están muy cerca de sus ATH.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by NewroadTrader
1
But, This Ship Can't Sink?In a move that's shocking both Wall Street and Main Street, Treasury secretary Steve Mnuchin has officially put the FED on notice in a bid to end the FED's Emergency Lending Programs by year end. Headlines from popular economists are circling the MSM, and some are saying this is the equivalent of removing the lifeboats from the Titanic. First of all, that's hilarious, considering there were never enough lifeboats to begin with, (because the ship was seen as unsinkable), at least not for the poor passengers. But, the point here is this; the Trump administration is signaling they're not going to hand the Biden administration a basket of goods as a farewell gift. Unfortunately, what this translates to, inter alia, is the FED won't be able to buy their favorite Mega-Tech bonds, essentially putting a direct stop to the billions flowing into the heavy weight side of the stock market through this particular program, and through low interest rate debt funded buy-backs. In addition, ending this program also put's credit markets at risk of a crash for a number of reasons. Most importantly, we've never had such a high percentage of BBB- (lowest level of investment grade) rated bonds in history. If any of these bonds drop even a single rating level, many, many, trillions of dollars sitting in pension funds, would be breaking their mandates, which is to stick to investment grade paper. So in other words, extremely large funds may start dumping BBB- bonds in the near term. Yields would spike alongside inflation, leading the FED toward a single conclusion, which is to raise rates, and discourage borrowing. As ZeroHedge so elequently put it, "Let's hope America's Zombie companies have learned how to swim after all those years of treading water." Finally, as the legendary MC Hammer would put it, "Uh oh." SPY Analysis: After breaking through key supports earlier in the week, the bulls have a difficult job on their hands today. Although we're sitting right below the megaphone and ascending channel trendlines (converging around 357), sentiment is turned notably negative today, with Giuliani and Sidney powell's update on the Trump administration's lawsuits last night, along with the news from the Treasury. We're seeing an unusual risk-off mood heading into the weekend. Lastly, each time we've approached the megaphone trendline (357) on the weekly, absent a break above, we've gotten a strong rejection. On the monthly, if the bulls are unable to keep us above 357, we could revisit 320 again very soon. My exit is 300... As always guys, stay tuned for live updates throughout the day, and thank you for your time, I appreciate all the support. If you enjoyed today's analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. Cheers, Michael.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
20
When The Bulls Became BearsHey guys, so for the moment the bears continue to dictate price action after yesterday's minor sell-off, as overnight losses in futures extended into the US cash open. After recapturing 2 key trendlines from the bulls yesterday (ascending channel, and megaphone), the bears are taking full advantage of the downward momentum, and we're now racing toward the top of the triangle around 349. There's very little support above 350, and with the 21 day EMA sitting around 349.80, and volume steadily increasing behind price action, this is the next logical interim support imo. With the rug now pulled from beneath the bulls, let's see what the bears have in store as we approach the end of the week. Vaccine headlines are circling the MSM again today, but this new narrative is seemingly losing it's ability to impact (distort) sentiment. Stay tuned for live updates today, and thank you for your support! If you enjoyed today's analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
6